Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 177 HKD / 23 USD, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of 137.2 HKD [4][5][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with adjusted net profit reaching 400 million RMB and an adjusted net profit margin of 5.3% [3]. - The strong performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" is anticipated to drive a 76% year-on-year growth in game revenue for Q4 2024, with a focus on long-term operations and an overseas version launch planned for 2025 [3]. - Advertising revenue is projected to reach 2.4 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase, supported by the exploration of multi-scenario advertising models and a recent partnership with the Central Radio and Television Station [3]. Financial Projections - The financial model forecasts the following revenue and profit figures (in million RMB): - FY22 Revenue: 21,899 - FY23 Revenue: 22,528 - FY24E Revenue: 26,679 - FY25E Revenue: 29,700 - FY26E Revenue: 32,254 - Adjusted Net Profit FY25E: 1,825 - Adjusted Net Profit FY26E: 2,911 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and upgrades it to an industry favorite, with a target price of HKD 3.34, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price of HKD 2.82 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue performance is gradually improving, with expectations that FY25 revenue will outperform the previously guided high single-digit decline. The successful promotional strategies are credited for this positive trend [2][3]. - The recovery of Nike's brand strength, particularly after signing Wang Jiaer as a global ambassador, is expected to enhance market sentiment towards the company and improve FY26 performance outlook [4][5]. - The current valuation is considered low at 10.3x FY26 P/E, coupled with a high dividend yield of around 10%, suggesting significant upside potential compared to downside risks [2][5]. Revenue Trends - For 4QFY25, the company anticipates a reduction in revenue decline to low single digits year-on-year, an improvement from the previous quarter [3]. - The retail discounting strategy has deepened in 4QFY25, aligning with the company's inventory reduction efforts and increasing online sales proportion [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts indicating a revenue of RMB 27,129 million for FY25, a decline of 6% year-on-year, with a projected net profit of RMB 1,382 million, reflecting a 38% decrease [5][12]. - The expected financial metrics for FY26 include a slight revenue decline to RMB 26,849 million and a net profit increase to RMB 1,595 million, indicating a recovery trend [5][12]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sports apparel retail sector, with a focus on enhancing brand image and expanding market reach, particularly in lower-tier cities [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve as Nike enhances its product promotion and marketing efforts in China post-inventory resolution [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and considers it an industry favorite, with an updated target price of 178 HKD / 46 USD [2][22]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the expanded "trade-in" policy, which includes subsidies for various household appliances and digital products, potentially accelerating revenue growth in the fourth quarter [1][2]. - Revenue forecast for Q4 is raised to RMB 333.6 billion, representing a 9% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 9.4 billion, a growth of 11% [2]. - The report highlights significant improvements in the sales of electronic products due to government subsidies, with active user growth anticipated to remain in double digits [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for FY24E and FY25E have been slightly adjusted upwards by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of the trade-in policy [2]. - The projected financial metrics include: - FY24E Revenue: RMB 1,145.4 billion - FY25E Revenue: RMB 1,203.1 billion - FY24E Adjusted Net Profit: RMB 45.9 billion - FY25E Adjusted Net Profit: RMB 50.2 billion [4][6][7]. - The adjusted target P/E ratios for FY25E and FY26E are 10.0x and 9.2x, respectively [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on overseas AI chip companies such as TSMC (2330.TT/TSM.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), and AMD (AMD.US) while also highlighting potential beneficiaries in China's domestic AI server power and power management sectors [5]. Core Insights - The new semiconductor export control regulations by the U.S. Department of Commerce aim to reinforce the leadership of advanced integrated circuit chips (IC) and ensure national security, impacting both wafer manufacturing and packaging/testing industries [3][4]. - The updated regulations include exemptions for 33 authorized semiconductor design companies, including major players like NVIDIA and AMD, allowing them to produce advanced logic chips without restrictions [4]. - The report indicates that the U.S. policy will benefit leading AI companies while accelerating the domestic production of AI in China [5]. Summary by Sections Export Control Regulations - The U.S. government has authorized 33 semiconductor design companies to produce advanced logic chips at wafer and packaging factories without restrictions [4]. - Non-authorized companies must obtain licenses to use 16/14nm processes or FinFET structures [4]. - The definition of advanced DRAM has been updated, with the standard cell area adjusted to 0.0026 square micrometers and storage density to 0.20Gb per square millimeter [4][7]. Impact on Companies - The report recommends monitoring overseas AI chip companies and domestic companies in China that may benefit from the increased demand for AI server power and power management [5]. - Specific companies mentioned include Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK/688347.CH), SMIC (981.HK/688981.CH), and others that may gain from the domestic AI production push [5]. Historical Context - The report outlines a timeline of U.S. sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies, highlighting the increasing restrictions over the years, culminating in the latest regulations that further limit China's access to advanced computing chips [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Duolingo (DUOL US) with a target price of USD 400, implying a potential upside of 17% from the current price of USD 341 8 [2][8] Core View - Duolingo is benefiting from a surge in Chinese language learning in the US, driven by the "TikTok Refugee" phenomenon, with Mandarin learners increasing by 216% YoY from December 1, 2024, to January 13, 2025 [1] - The company's innovative gamified language learning model has significantly lowered user barriers, covering over 40 languages and targeting a global market of over 2 billion foreign language learners with a current penetration rate of less than 6% [8] - Duolingo is expected to achieve 1 76 billion MAUs by 2026, with a CAGR of 30%, and paid subscribers are projected to reach 15 6 million by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 33% [8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from USD 369 million in FY22 to USD 1,218 million in FY26E, with a CAGR of 34 7% [2][9] - Operating profit is expected to turn positive in FY24E at USD 66 million, increasing to USD 196 million by FY26E [2][9] - Net income is projected to rise from USD 16 million in FY22 to USD 390 million in FY26E, with a significant improvement in profitability [2][9] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to grow from USD 16 million in FY22 to USD 390 million in FY26E, with an EBITDA margin of 24 4% in 4Q24 [8][9] User Metrics and Growth - MAUs are expected to reach 115 million in 4Q24, a 30% YoY increase, with DAUs nearing 40 million [8] - Paid subscription users stood at 8 6 million in 3Q24, with a paid rate of 7 6%, and are expected to grow to 15 6 million by 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The target EV/EBITDA multiples are 88 3x for FY24E, 60 0x for FY25E, and 42 9x for FY26E [2][9] - The target P/E multiples are 68x for FY25E and 52x for FY26E [8] Market Context - Duolingo's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of USD 145 05 to USD 378 48, and a current market cap of USD 15,034 million [2] - The company's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index significantly over the past year [6]

Economic Growth - China's Q4 economic growth rebounded significantly, increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 5.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[2] - The annual economic growth rate reached 5.0%, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year[2] - The service sector's growth accelerated to 5.8% in Q4 from 4.8% in Q3, becoming the main driver of economic recovery[2] Consumption and Investment - In December, retail sales growth improved to 3.7%, up from 3.0% in November, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth declined by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2% in December, slightly below the market expectation of 3.3%[7] - The cumulative growth rate of social retail sales for the year fell sharply from 7.2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, slightly below the forecast of 3.6%[6] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production growth in December surged to 6.2%, significantly higher than the expected 5.4%, driven by a manufacturing production increase to 7.4%[7] - Strong export performance contributed to the economic rebound, although concerns about the U.S.-China trade war may have led to preemptive export activities[8] Policy Implications - The better-than-expected economic growth in Q4 may reduce the likelihood of significant policy support before the March meetings, with a focus on implementing existing policies[9] - Continued policy support is anticipated to maintain economic recovery momentum, particularly in consumption and investment sectors[11]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 台积电（2330.TT/TSM.US）：AI 需求强 劲，将持续推动 2025 年及长期增长 上调台积 2025、2026 年盈利预测，并上调台积电（2330.TT）目标价 至 1,401.1 新台币，潜在升幅 27%，上调台积电（TSM.US）目标价至 256.3 美元，潜在升幅 24%，均维持"买入"评级。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 新台币百万 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 2,161,736 | 2,894,308 | 3,713,586 | 4,570,688 | 5,509,213 | | 营收同比增速 | (5%) | 34% | 28% | 23% | 21% | | 毛利率 | 54.4% | 56.1% | 58.3% | 57.8% | 57.8% | | 净利润 | 851,740 | 1,173,268 | 1,555,461 | 1,878,959 | 2,249,836 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66 0, implying a potential upside of 23 8% from the current price of HKD 53 3 [1][4] Core Views - The company's management has raised the 2024 full-year performance guidance, expecting revenue growth of around 50% and net profit growth of around 40% [1] - The company's main brand, Kefumei, achieved a GMV growth of 78 1% in 2024, driven by strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival and new product launches [1] - The company has raised its 2024 performance guidance three times, reflecting strong confidence in achieving its targets [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by the expansion of key products and improved brand strength of its two major brands, Kefumei and Kelijing [2] - The company's medical aesthetic products are expected to be approved as scheduled, with the injection recombinant collagen product for eye wrinkles expected to be approved in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is expected to reach RMB 5,377 million, a 52 6% YoY increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 2,044 million, a 40 8% YoY increase [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82 3% in 2024E, with an operating margin of 42 4% [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 34 7% in 2024E, gradually declining to 32 4% by 2026E [9] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24 6x in 2024E to 15 0x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [9] Product and Brand Performance - Kefumei's GMV grew by 78 1% in 2024, with a growth rate of over 80% during the "Double 11" period [1] - Kelijing's GMV grew by over 150% during the "Double 11" period, driven by core products such as the Pong Pong Essence and Collagen Series [1] - The new product, Focus Cream, launched in 2024, has contributed to Kefumei's growth, providing a new growth driver beyond the Collagen Stick [1] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of HKD 28 5 to HKD 58 0, and a current market capitalization of HKD 54,804 million [4] - The company's daily average trading volume over the past three months was HKD 164 2 million, indicating strong market interest [4] - The company is part of the cosmetics industry, with peers such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa also showing strong performance [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.6, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 32.20 [3][5][8]. Core Insights - Leap Motor is expected to achieve its first positive net profit in Q4, becoming the second profitable new energy vehicle manufacturer among its peers. The company anticipates a significant increase in sales volume, targeting 500,000 units by 2025, supported by stable domestic subsidy policies [8]. - The report highlights a substantial improvement in gross margin, projecting it to reach around 13% in Q4 2024, driven by increased sales volume and effective cost management [8]. - The financial forecasts for Leap Motor show a revenue increase from RMB 12.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 69.2 billion by 2026, with a projected revenue growth rate of 295% in 2022 and 37% in 2026 [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Leap Motor are as follows: - 2022: RMB 12,385 million - 2023: RMB 16,747 million - 2024E: RMB 30,771 million - 2025E: RMB 50,581 million - 2026E: RMB 69,234 million - The expected gross margin is projected to improve from (15.4%) in 2022 to 15.9% in 2026, with net losses decreasing significantly over the forecast period [4][9]. - The report estimates that Leap Motor will achieve a net profit of RMB 2.85 billion by 2026, transitioning from a net loss of RMB 5.1 billion in 2022 [4][10]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x for both automotive sales and services, leading to a target price of HKD 40.6 [11]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for Leap Motor is noted to be 0.7x, suggesting potential for upward revaluation as profitability improves [8][11].

科技行业 | 行业追踪 美 AI 芯片/大模型出口管制新规 解读：巩固美国 AI 领导地位，加 速中国国产化进程 当地时间 1 月 13 号，美国拜登政府公布人工智能（ AI ）芯片管 制新规，意欲加强和完善其出口管制框架，规范先进的人工智能 模型和大型先进计算集成电路（ IC ）在全球的传播。 美国拜登政府公布了《人工智能扩散出口管制框架》，意欲加强 和完善其出口管制框架，规范先进的人工智能模型和大型先进计 算集成电路在全球的传播，从而保护美国的国家安全和外交政策 利益。该新规有 120 天的公示期。特朗普政府最终是否批准并实 施该新规仍然有待观察。 该框架将全球国家及地区分为三类，设定不同层级的算力出口限 额。规则制定旨在通过限制高端算力芯片出口来限制海外实体获 得最为先进的算力集群及 AI 计算模型。 第一类为美国盟友，可以不受限制地获取美国先进计算芯片，主 要包括英国、德国、荷兰、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本、韩国、中 国台湾等 18 个国家和地区。第二类为（第一类和第三类以外的） 所有其他国家和地区，面临以国为单位的总算力限制，包括全球 除第一类的绝大多数国家和地区。第三类为武器禁运国家和地区， 全面禁止 ...