浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 CNY 107.0 CNY 162.0 CNY 111.8 CNY 130.8 韦尔股份 （603501.CH） 公司研究 | 半导体行业 韦尔股份（603501.CH）：三季度业绩 符合盈利预告，手机业务和汽车业 务均维持增长动能 我们略微调整韦尔股份 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并调整目标价至 人民币 130.8 元，潜在升幅 17%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申韦尔股份的"买入"评级：韦尔股份三季度业绩符合我们此前对 于公司处于半导体周期上行的判断，也符合公司此前的业绩预告。公 司三季度收入增速、毛利率、净利润增速均取得同比增长，并且利润 增速显著高于收入增速，基本面周期持续上行。从业务板块来看，韦 尔的手机 CIS 份额持续提升，我们预计明年该业务在产能扩张支持下 仍有确定性较高的增长空间，并且手机 CIS 毛利率有望维持在 30%以 上。公司的汽车 CIS 业务受益于新能源车及智驾渗透率快速提升，收 入增速确定性较高，毛利率稳定在 40%以上，有望在 2025 年维持该势 头表现。从未来 2-3 年的时间维度看，显示驱动业务和车规类模拟等 新产品业务都有望看 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 微电生理 （688351.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 微电生理（688351.CH）：3Q24 国内 业务有所承压，海外业务稳健增长 公司 3Q24 收入受国内业务影响有所下滑，但受益于有效的降本控费， 净利同比实现高增长。分地区看，国内三维手术量继续受到行业反腐冲 击，电生理设备投放及产品入院均受到一定影响，海外则维持稳健增长。 3Q24 业绩会上，公司表示 2024 年将力争实现收入同比 30%的增长，但 考虑到行业手术量增速仍在反腐背景下承受一定压力，我们的预测较公 司目标更为保守。维持"买入"评级及目标价人民币 27.9 元。 3Q24 收入因国内业务承压有所下滑，净利在降本控费下实现高增长： 3Q24 收入同比-1.5%至人民币 9,250 万元，收入中三维消融导管/标测 导管/设备/针鞘类产品占收入比例分别为>40%/约 30%/约 10%/约 15%， 其中主要新产品（压力消融导管、冷冻消融导管、高密度标测导管） 占比提升至 30%（vs 1H24 约 20%）；毛利率同比-4.3pcts 至 58.1%， 继续受到集采降价以及压力导管等新品上市后仍在放量期 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 闻泰科技 （600745.CH） 闻泰科技（600745.CH）：三季度产品集 成业务与功率半导体业务同频改善 调整目标价至人民币 41.6 元，潜在升幅 15%，维持"买入"评级。 重申闻泰科技的"买入"评级：闻泰科技三季度的净利润为人民币 2.7 亿元，环比扭亏，业绩符合此前管理层对于公司基本面的判断， 即今年产品集成业务盈利能力逐季改善，功率半导体业务基本面在 二季度触底并向上。公司半导体业务触底上行幅度高于我们此前预 期，因此我们上调 2025 年盈利增速预测至 127%。当前，闻泰科技 市盈率为 22.2x，略低于过去 5 年历史均值水平，仍然具备上行空 间。因此，我们对闻泰保持乐观判断。 产品集成业务扭亏在即。公司产品集成业务三季度录得收入 157 亿 元，毛利率 3.8%，净亏损 3.6 亿元，均实现环比增长或改善。主要 得益于：1）手机 ODM 等供应链上游零部件成本改善；2）大客户 产品规模提升；3）公司持续的降本增效。我们预期该业务有望在 今年四季度实现扭亏，并在 2025 年贡献约 1.3 亿元的盈利增量。 安世半导体基本面周期开 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 珀莱雅 （603605.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 珀莱雅（603605.CH）：3Q24 业绩符合预期， 淡季稳健增长，多措并举有望改善利润率 在化妆品销售的淡季，珀莱雅 3Q24 收入和归母净利润依然保持相对 快速的增长，分别增长 21.2%和 20.7%，基本符合预期。公司能够维持 收入的快速增长得益于公司主品牌以及子品牌的均衡增长。尽管面临 毛销差缩窄的压力，但公司已落实多种举措，推动利润率的环比改善。 我们根据业绩情况小幅下调珀莱雅 2024-2026E 盈利预测。由于化妆品 行业估值中枢的上移，我们上调目标价至人民币 115 元（23x 2025E PE）， 维持珀莱雅"买入"评级。 多品牌均衡发展助力收入增长：尽管三季度是化妆品销售的淡季，叠 加疲软的消费大环境，珀莱雅仍在 3Q24 录得 21.2%的收入同比增长。 根据我们的估算，珀莱雅以及彩棠两大品牌 3Q24 均录得 20%左右的 收入增长，洗护品牌 OR 的收入增长超过 40%。我们认为，在公司多品 牌策略下，主力品牌收入稳定增长作为公司的基本盘，以及第二梯队 品牌的品牌力逐步提升，都将助力公司收入 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 贝泰妮（300957.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 贝泰妮（300957.CH）：费用投放增加令 单季首次转亏，多元矩阵仍在探索中 贝泰妮 3Q24 收入同比录得增长 14.0%，主要仍由 2023 年收购的悦江 旗下品牌 Za 和泊美收入人民币 1.2 亿元带动。如剔除悦江的影响，可 比口径仅同比增长 3.1%，薇诺娜品牌的调整效果尚未展现。同时，3Q24 营销活动的增加、期内新增员工持股计划费用支出以及负面经营杠杆， 使销售费用率和管理费用率分别大幅同比上升 12.7ppt 以及 4.9ppt，令 公司首次单季录得亏损。综上，我们下调贝泰妮 2024-2026E 盈利预测， 但考虑到化妆品行业估值中枢上移，以及"双 11"期间较好的业绩展 望，我们上调目标价至人民币 55.5 元，维持贝泰妮"持有"评级。 主品牌调整效果尚未展现：3Q24 贝泰妮收入同比增长 14%，但主要 是由 2023 年 10 月并表悦江投资带来的增量收入增长。如果剔除悦 江，内生营收为 10.96 亿元，仅同比增长 3.1%。我们认为，这是由于 贝泰妮长久以来对于薇诺娜品牌的高度依赖，致使当薇诺 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60 for the US stock and HK$47 for the Hong Kong stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The initial efficacy and safety data for ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) in the 2L+ ES-SCLC indication are excellent, significantly boosting investor confidence in the company's R&D pipeline [1]. - ZL-1310 demonstrated a 74% overall response rate (ORR) in the global Phase 1 trial, with a 100% ORR in patients with brain metastases [1]. - The company plans to accelerate the development of ZL-1310 for 2L+ ES-SCLC and aims to communicate with the FDA regarding the accelerated approval pathway [1]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2023 is $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][9]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of $335 million in 2023, improving to a loss of $137 million by 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2023 to 2026 [2][9]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is $28.9, with a potential upside of 107% to the target price of $60 [3][5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $31.2, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. Clinical Data Comparison - ZL-1310's ORR of 74% is higher than that of competitors like YL201 (68% ORR) and ZG006 (67% ORR), showcasing its competitive edge in the market [1][8]. - The safety profile of ZL-1310 is superior, with lower rates of ≥3 grade treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) compared to YL201 [1][8].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential downside of 1% [1] - The current valuation is considered reasonable with a P/E ratio of 72.6x, higher than the average of 59.5x since 2022 [1] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin exceeded market expectations, reaching 19.8%, up 2 percentage points year-over-year and 1.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales gross margin improved both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while energy storage gross margin surged by over 6 percentage points [1] - Operating expenses decreased, leading to a 54% year-over-year and 69% quarter-over-quarter increase in operating profit [1] - Net income for 3Q24 was $2.17 billion, up 17% year-over-year and 47% quarter-over-year, surpassing market consensus [1] - Tesla expects 20%-30% growth in vehicle sales for the next year [1] - FSD version 13 is expected to improve intervention intervals by 5-6 times [1] - Megapack production reached 200 units per week, equivalent to 40GWh annually, with a second Shanghai factory expected to add 20GWh/year capacity in Q1 2025 [1] - Optimus, the next-generation humanoid robot, will feature 22 degrees of freedom, doubling its previous capability [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Tesla's 3Q24 revenue was $25.18 billion, up 8% year-over-year but down 1% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales revenue in 3Q24 was $19.57 billion, up 2% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Energy revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, though it declined 21% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Service and other revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $2.79 billion, up 7% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Vehicle deliveries in 3Q24 reached 462,890 units, up 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Average vehicle price decreased by 5% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter to $40,681 [11] Valuation - The target price of $210.8 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying a P/E of 94.9x for 2024 and 66.6x for 2025 [1] - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $682.54 billion, with a 52-week price range of $139-$271 [2] Industry and Competitive Positioning - Tesla maintains its position as a global leader in smart electric vehicles, with new models expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [1] - The company continues to invest in AI and autonomous driving, which are expected to support its valuation [1]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 李宁 10 20 30 40 （2331.HK） 公司研究 | 消费行业 李宁（2331.HK）：3Q24 运营数据略好于 市场预期，但 4Q24 不确定性依然较大 转机未至，维持"持有"评级：尽管李宁 3Q24 流水表现略好于市场预 期，但依然大幅落后于主要的国产竞争对手（图表 3）。同时，管理层在 电话会上表示公司短期渠道库存压力有所加大，并强调 4Q24 的收入表 现有较大的不确定性。我们认为尽管李宁 2024 年业绩确定性有所增强， 但在公司品牌力、基本面与终端销售趋势尚未出现显著恢复迹象的情况 下，投资者应对李宁股价表现保持谨慎，不宜轻易抄底。我们维持盈利 预测不变，但将估值滚动至 2025 年，从而小幅上调李宁目标价至 15.94 港元（基于 12x 2025E P/E）。维持李宁"持有"评级。 3Q24 流水表现略好于预期：李宁 3Q24 全渠道整体流水同比下滑中单 位数，略好于市场预期的中单位数至高单位数的下滑。其中，线下渠道 流水同比下滑高单位数，好于市场预期的低双下滑。线下直营门店 3Q24 流水同比下降中单位数，略好于加盟商线下门店流水表现（高单位数下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.9, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 63.5 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing market expectations, and demonstrating strong operational capabilities in IP management and global expansion potential [2][3]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the Chinese market, with revenue growth of 55%-60% in Q3 2024, compared to 32% in the first half of the year, showcasing the company's resilience in a challenging economic environment [2][7]. - Internationally, the company reported an impressive 440%-445% revenue growth in Q3 2024, further validating its global expansion strategy and the effectiveness of its IP monetization efforts [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards by 20%-31%, with net profit estimates increased by 24%-36% [2][8]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 12,395 million in 2024, RMB 17,733 million in 2025, and RMB 22,156 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 96.7%, 43.1%, and 24.9% respectively [3][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,599 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation stands at 18.8 times the estimated P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.3, indicating that the stock remains attractive compared to other consumer stocks in China [2][3]. - The company’s strong IP incubation capabilities and optimistic outlook for international markets contribute to a strong long-term growth trajectory [2][3].