Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The revenue outlook for the company remains unclear, and the valuation is considered to be low in terms of cost-effectiveness [2] - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 8.5% year-on-year, slightly better than expectations, but concerns about future performance persist [2] - The profit margin expansion in Q3 2024 was primarily due to a significant decline in raw milk prices, a trend that is not expected to be sustainable [2] - Weak terminal demand for liquid milk continues, with no significant improvement in consumer willingness to purchase [2] - The company has seen a substantial increase in sales expense ratio over three consecutive quarters, indicating limited room for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 123.171 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, while 2023 revenue is projected at CNY 126.179 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.4% [3][6] - The company’s net profit for 2022 was CNY 9.431 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and is expected to reach CNY 10.429 billion in 2023, a growth of 10.6% [3][6] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 15.7x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical performance [3][6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 expanded by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and the end of inventory clearance [2][6] Market Expectations - The target price for the company is set at CNY 32.1, representing a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of CNY 27.9 [4][5] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately CNY 177.674 billion, with an average trading volume of CNY 1.7163 billion over the past three months [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Huaxi Biotech (688363 CH) with a target price of RMB 62 1, implying a potential upside of 3 7% from the current price of RMB 59 9 [2][9] Core Views - Huaxi Biotech's functional skincare business and management restructuring are still ongoing, leading to a 7 1% YoY decline in 3Q24 revenue and a 77% YoY drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company's skincare business is expected to take a longer time to complete its transformation, with 3Q24 skincare revenue down 22% YoY, though the decline narrowed from 1H24 (-30%) [1] - The medical aesthetics business is driving growth, with 3Q24 revenue up 10% YoY, supported by new product launches and clear channel strategies [1] - Management expenses rose significantly in 3Q24 due to increased backend costs and consulting fees, leading to a 5 1ppt decline in core operating profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 5,741 million, down 5 5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decline 30 6% YoY to RMB 411 million [4][5] - The company's gross margin improved to 72 4% in 3Q24, up 1 3ppt YoY, driven by higher-margin medical aesthetics products [1] - Operating cash flow is expected to improve, with 2024E operating cash flow projected at RMB 917 million, up from RMB 700 million in 2023 [6] Business Segments - Skincare business: Revenue declined 22% YoY in 3Q24, but the company has launched new products focusing on functional sugar and cell biology, aiming to stabilize Q4 revenue [1] - Medical aesthetics business: Revenue grew 10% YoY in 3Q24, with new products expected to drive further growth in 2025 [1] - Raw materials business: Revenue remained flat in 3Q24, while the medical terminal business became the only growth driver [1] Valuation and Market Performance - The target price of RMB 62 1 is based on an upward revision due to the rising valuation center of the cosmetics industry [1] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 70 1x, reflecting the market's expectation of future growth [4] - The stock's 52-week price range is RMB 44 7-84 6, with a current market cap of RMB 28,843 million [2]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 时代电气 （3898.HK/6881 87.CH） 时代电气（3898.HK/688187.CH）：三季度 轨交业务和新兴设备业务均同比稳定增长 我们维持时代电气（3898.HK/688187.CH）的"买入"评级及目标价。 重申时代电气"买入"评级：时代电气三季度净利润同比增长 11%， 环比增长 6%，再次实现业务稳定增长。公司的毛利率录得 32.6%， 同比下降 1.9 个百分点，环比增长 8.6 个百分点。会计准则变化导 致毛利率变化幅度较大，但业务本身毛利率则相对稳定。展望明年， 轨交业务受益于大修等增量需求，将持续复苏。宜兴的 IGBT 产能稳 步扩张保障功率半导体业务增长基石。公司当前港股、A 股市盈率 分别为 9.6x、16.4x，估值具有吸引力。 新能源车行业需求带动功率半导体高速成长：时代电气三季度新兴 装备收入为人民币 26.6 亿元，同比增长 14%，环比增长 14%，增长 强劲。其中，功率半导体和新能源汽车主驱两个板块成长表现突出。 功率半导体收入达 9.65 亿元，同比增长 27%，环比增长 6%。尽管 新能源车的 IGBT ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 350 [1][3] Core Views - Domestic revenue is expected to remain under pressure in 4Q24, with a potential recovery in 2025 [1] - Overseas business continues to grow steadily, while domestic growth is sluggish due to anti-corruption measures and delayed equipment renewal tenders [1] - 3Q24 revenue growth was modest, with domestic revenue declining by 10% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 19% YoY [1] - Life Information & Support segment revenue fell by over 20% YoY in 3Q24, while IVD and Medical Imaging grew by less than 10% and 3% respectively [1] - Gross margin in 3Q24 declined by 5.5 ppts YoY, mainly due to accounting adjustments, but remained stable on a like-for-like basis [1] - Medical special bonds and local special bonds issuance accelerated in September 2024, but the impact on 4Q24 performance is expected to be limited [1] - The company plans to reduce inventory levels from 4 months to 2 months by the end of 2024, which may pressure 4Q24 revenue growth [1] - Full-year 2024 revenue growth is expected to slow to 7% YoY, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2025 as equipment renewal projects materialize [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 37.4 billion, with a 7.1% YoY growth, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 21% YoY to RMB 45.3 billion [2] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 12.5 billion, with a 7.6% YoY increase, and 2025E net profit is expected to grow by 21% YoY to RMB 15.1 billion [2] - Gross margin for 2024E is projected at 64.2%, slightly lower than 2023A's 66.2% [4] - Operating cash flow for 2024E is expected to be RMB 15.6 billion, with capital expenditures of RMB 6.8 billion [5] Dividend Policy - The company announced a second dividend of RMB 1.65 per share for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 65% [1] - The single dividend yield is 0.6% based on the closing price on the announcement date [1] Valuation Metrics - The target price of RMB 350 implies a 28x 2025E PE, in line with the 3-year historical average [1] - 2024E PE is projected at 26.4x, declining to 21.8x in 2025E [2] - The dividend yield for 2024E is expected to be 2.5%, increasing to 3.0% in 2025E [5]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 青岛啤酒（168.HK/600600.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 青岛啤酒（168.HK/600600.CH）：销售费用 大幅反弹导致 3Q24 净利润不及预期，产品 结构面临压力 盈利趋势逐渐走弱，维持青啤"持有"评级：我们认为青啤短期业绩 面临以下挑战：（1）整体销量持续疲弱，销量同比下滑幅度大于主要 竞对，（2）中高端以上价格带产品增长乏力导致产品结构提升受阻， （3）销售费用后置短期令利润率承压。基于 3Q24 的业绩表现，我们 对青啤高端化的前景更为谨慎，并适当下调了 2024-2026 年的收入与盈 利预测。基于 12.0x 2025 年 EV/EBITDA 的估值（与华润啤酒目标估值一 致），我们下调青啤 A 股目标价至人民币 70.6 元。基于 8.0x 2025 年 EV/EBITDA 的估值（华润啤酒目标估值 20%的折扣），我们下调青啤 H 股目标价至 58.4 港元。维持青岛啤酒 A 股与港股"持有"评级不变。 3Q24 业绩不及预期：青啤 3Q24 归母净利润同比下滑 9.0%，而收入同 比下降 5.3%，利润下滑幅度大于收入下滑幅度，主要是由于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the Hong Kong stock with a target price of HKD 16.8, and a "Hold" rating for the A-share with a target price of RMB 22.4 [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 3.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 420 million, down 13.2% year-on-year but up 18.7% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue guidance down to a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate, primarily due to slower-than-expected recovery in laboratory services and delays in major clinical service orders [5][7]. Financial Performance - For 3Q24, the CMC segment showed the fastest revenue growth at 20.9% year-on-year and 34.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin increase [4]. - The laboratory services segment also experienced a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in the biosciences sector [4]. - The company reported a gross margin of 34.4% for 3Q24, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13% [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first nine months of 2024, new orders increased by over 18% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the top 20 pharmaceutical companies, which saw a revenue growth of 3.4% year-on-year [3][4]. - North American customer revenue grew by 4.3% year-on-year, while European customer revenue accelerated to 15.7% year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of 2024, with a projected full-year revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits [5][7]. - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2024 has been reduced by 5% due to lower revenue expectations and higher gross margin forecasts [7].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 荣昌生物（9995.HK） 目标价（港元） 26.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +58% 目前股价（港元） 16.5 52 周内股价区间（港元） 10.2-49.0 总市值（百万港元） 15,740 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 40 注：截至 2024 年 10 月 30 日收盘价 市场预期区间 荣昌生物 荣昌生物（688331.CH） 目标价（人民币） 35.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +7% 目前股价（人民币） 32.6 52 周股价区间（人民币） 22.3-71.8 总市值（百万人民币） 14,429 近 3 月日均成交额（百万人民币） 111 注：截至 2024 年 10 月 30 日收盘价 （9995.HK/688331.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 荣昌生物（9995.HK/688331.CH）：研发费用 管控初见成效 荣昌生物 3Q24 收入符合预期，净亏损显著好于预期，主要得益于研 发费用管控显著好于预期。维持"持有"评级及目标价（港股 26 港元、 A 股人民币 35 元）。 ● 3Q24 收入符合预期，净亏损显著好于期：公司 3Q24 实现收入人民币 4.7 亿元（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 112.4, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of CNY 97.2 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's third-quarter performance showed improvement compared to the low point in the second quarter, driven by stable demand in the industrial control sector and rapid growth in automotive-related revenue. The photovoltaic sector also began to recover from earlier lows [2][8]. - The silicon carbide (SiC) business is progressing steadily, with expectations of doubling revenue compared to last year. The increasing penetration of new energy vehicles is anticipated to sustain high growth in the company's automotive main drive modules [2][7]. - Despite significant price pressures in the automotive sector, the company is expected to stabilize and potentially increase its gross margin through various cost-reduction measures and product mix upgrades [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 880 million, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21%. The gross margin was 32.0%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 149 million, reflecting a 35% year-on-year decline but a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, also showed a similar trend [2][8]. - The company’s forward P/E ratio is currently at 26.2x, which is below the historical average, suggesting room for valuation upside [2][12]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with expected revenues of CNY 3,342 million and CNY 4,089 million respectively, reflecting a 23% decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at CNY 1,065 million, with a gross margin of 31.9%, and net profit is expected to be CNY 596 million, indicating a 46% increase from prior forecasts [2][7]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 2.2% and a WACC of 13.5%. The target price of CNY 112.4 corresponds to a P/E of 32.3x for 2024 and 25.1x for 2025 [2][9][10]. - The company’s free cash flow projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and operating profit over the next several years, with a long-term growth rate assumption of 3% [2][9].

Economic Overview - In September, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 254,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated[3] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% in September[5] - Core CPI inflation rates exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, driven primarily by a rebound in super-core services CPI[7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation remains for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with a total of seven cuts anticipated by July next year, bringing the policy rate down to 3%[1] - Risks are skewed towards a slower pace of rate cuts, as more economic data is needed to support the "no landing" narrative[16] Political Landscape - Trump's chances of winning the election have increased, with a 15 percentage point lead over Harris in key swing states[17] - If Trump wins and implements his tax cuts, the economic growth and inflation impact could be more significant compared to Harris's policies[21] Financial Market Insights - The dollar index rose by 3.5% in October, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 12.3%[24] - The market anticipates that if Trump wins, the dollar index could continue to rise, with a year-end forecast of 106[24] Investment Risks - Potential risks include rapid rate cuts by the Fed, geopolitical tensions leading to inflation, and unexpected outcomes from the U.S. elections[1]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 目标价（港元） 56.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +6% 目前股价（港元） 52.8 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.5-103.6 总市值（百万港元） 167,502 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 441 SPDBI 目标价 ◆ 目前价 ◆市场预期区间 *数据截至 2024 年 10 月 28 日 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 药明康德 药明康德(603259.CH) 目标价（人民币） 62.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（人民币） 53.4 52 周内股价区间（人民币） 36.3-93.6 总市值（百万人民币） 153,659 近 3 月日均成交额(百万人民币) 2,869 （2359.HK/603259.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 药明康德（2359.HK/603259.CH）：3Q24 经 调整归母净利略高于预期，维持全年收入 利润指引 公司 3Q24 收入大致符合我们预期，经调整 Non-IFRS 归母净利润略 好于我们预期。公司维持全年收入利润指引不变，上调全年自由现 金流指引，主要系下调资本开支指引。上调港股/A 股目标价至 56 港元/人民 ...