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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of HKD 479.7 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 61.5 for the US-listed shares [2][3] Core Views - Yum China's 3Q24 operating profit growth exceeded expectations due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - The company's flexible operational strategies and strong management capabilities are driving improved same-store sales and continued cost optimization [2] - Yum China plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 3 billion to USD 4.5 billion for 2024-2026, which is expected to boost market sentiment [2] Same-Store Sales Outlook - Same-store sales are expected to trend positively in 2025, with KFC likely to return to positive same-store sales growth and Pizza Hut narrowing its decline [2] - KFC's average check is expected to remain stable, while Pizza Hut's average check may face downward pressure due to the increasing proportion of WOW stores [2] Cost Optimization and Efficiency - Despite declining average checks, restaurant-level margins remained flat YoY in 3Q24, and operating margins expanded by 1.0ppt [2] - The company expects cost optimization efforts to continue, though the marginal benefits may weaken in 2025 [2] - Management aims to maintain the administrative expense ratio below 5% in the medium to long term [2] Franchise Expansion - Yum China plans to accelerate franchise development, with franchise stores expected to account for 40%-50% of KFC's net new openings and 20%-30% of Pizza Hut's net new openings [2] - The franchise model is seen as complementary to company-owned stores, helping to expand into new markets and regions [2] - Franchise stores are expected to achieve operating margins comparable to company-owned stores, with strict controls in place to ensure operational quality and food safety [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 11,352 million in 2024E to USD 13,041 million in 2026E, with net income attributable to shareholders increasing from USD 919 million to USD 1,059 million over the same period [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA multiple is expected to decline from 9.9x in 2024E to 8.4x in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [6] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The report highlights a potential upside of 27.3% for Yum China's US-listed shares and 24.3% for its Hong Kong-listed shares based on the target prices [3][4] - The company's market capitalization stands at USD 8,386 million, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of USD 144.9 million [3]

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公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 Mobileye（MBLY.US）：3Q24 营收表现略 超预期，下游库存继续走向正常化 维持 Mobileye（MBLY.US）目标价 16.2 美元，潜在升幅 19%，对应 2025 年调整后目标市盈率 35.9x；维持"买入"评级。 维持 Mobileye"买入"评级：Mobileye 三季度收入 4.86 亿美元，同 比下降 8%，环比增长 11%，营收表现好于一致预测和我们的预期。公 司三季度经营现金流 1.26 亿美元，预计后续仍将保持强劲。考虑到公 司将在近两年内持续对于包括 AI 在内的相关技术进行研发投入，我们 下调 2024-2026 年公司盈利预测。但同时，我们对于公司的技术实力 保持信心，定点项目后续的大规模放量有望带动公司收入和利润显著 成长。因此，我们维持 Mobileye 的"买入"评级。 下游的 Tier 1、OEM 库存仍处于正常化进程中，EyeQ 出货量环比持 续改善：三季度Mobileye整体系统出货量达860万套（其中SuperVi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto [1][2] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to USD 30.8, representing a potential upside of 23% [1] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is increased to HKD 120.0, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's vehicle delivery momentum is sustained, driven by the L6 model, with projected sales of 507,000 units in 2024 and 700,000 units in 2025, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][2] - The company's profitability significantly improved in Q3, with expectations for continued profit growth through 2025, positioning it as a leader in profitability among new energy vehicle companies [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capture additional market share in pure electric models by 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 42.874 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.225 billion, up 21% year-over-year and 49% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Operating profit increased by 47% year-over-year and 633% quarter-over-quarter, reaching RMB 3.433 billion [9] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.814 billion, approximately flat year-over-year but up 155% from the previous quarter [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, slightly down from 22.0% year-over-year but improved from 19.5% quarter-over-quarter [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 146.396 billion, with a growth rate of 18% [11] - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 30.431 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% [11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 12.534 billion, with a net margin of 6.3% [11] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5x for automotive sales and 17.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of USD 30.8 for Li Auto [3][13] - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for 2025 [3][13]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 比亚迪股份 （1211.HK） /比亚迪 （ 002594.CH） 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 比亚迪股份（1211.HK）/比亚迪（002594.CH）： 新能源车销量大幅成长，带动利润释放 我们重申比亚迪的"买入"评级。上调比亚迪 2024/2025 年盈利预测， 上调比亚迪股份（1211.HK）目标价至 335.0 港元，潜在升幅 21%；上 调比亚迪（002594.CH）目标价至人民币 357.7 元，潜在升幅 23%。 重申比亚迪的"买入"评级：年初至今比亚迪新能源车销量总体增长 强劲，利润逐季释放。我们预计比亚迪今年和明年新能源车销量有望 站上 400 万辆和 500 万辆，且确定性较高。比亚迪有望继续享受插混 车型，尤其是 10 万元至 20 万元价格段的需求增量。并且，随着规模 效应持续体现，比亚迪有继续抢夺份额和释放利润的能力。目前公司 港股和 A 股的市盈率为 17.2x 和 18.7x，估值具备上移的基础。因此， 我们对比亚迪保持乐观判断。 三季度单车盈利持续改善，10 月新能源销量创历史新高：三季度比亚 迪收入达到人民币 2,011 亿元，同比增长 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 锦江酒店 股价表现 （600754.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 锦江酒店（600754.CH）：3Q24 业绩低于预期， 境内业务承压，但开店目标有望超额达成 3Q24 公司实现营业收入人民币 38.98 亿元，同比下降 7.1%，实现 归母净利润 2.6 亿元，同比下跌 43.1%。归母净利润大幅下降主要 是因为（1）去年同期疫后出行需求旺盛，而今年趋于平稳，导致境 内 RevPAR 同比下降；（2）负向经营杠杆；（3）一次性因素：去年 同期录得租赁补偿金，及有效税率本期提升至 43.6%。我们认为公 司要完成全年股权激励目标有一定难度，因此下调 2024E-2026E 盈 利预测。我们基于公司快速拓店和以增资和贷款置换等举措缓解未 来财务费用压力的预期，上调目标价至人民币 28.1 元（9x2025E EV/EBITDA），维持锦江酒店"持有"评级。 3Q24 境内业务 RevPAR 持续承压：去年疫后暑期出行意愿旺盛，因 此在高基数下，锦江酒店 3Q24 境内业务中全服务型酒店以及有限服 务酒店 RevPAR 分别同比下降 18.2%以及 8.4%。这主要是由于平均 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 微软（MSFT.US）：业绩略超预期，云 业务收入指引放缓 业绩略超市场预期：公司 FY25Q1 收入 656 亿美元，同比增长 16%，略 超市场预期 2%；分部业务来看，生产力与企业流程（PBP）收入同比 增长 12%，智能云业务同比增长 20%，个人计算同比增长 17%；每股 收益 3.3 美元，同比增长 10%，好于市场预期。公司毛利率 69%，同比 下降 2 个百分点，主要由于加大基础设施投入导致云业务毛利率下降。 整体稳健，云业务指引增速放缓：FY25Q1智能云业务收入241亿美元， 同比增长 20%，其中 Azure 及其他同比增长 33%，较上一季度略有下 降，但好于先前指引（28%~29%）。公司预计 Azure 下一季度同比增长 31%~32%，考虑到在持续加大 AI 投入的背景下，云业务收入增速进一 步放缓，略显失望。PBP 业务收入 283 亿美元，同比增长 12%，相对 稳健：其中 office 商业产品同比增长 13%，Office 消费者产品同比增长 5%，LinkedIn 同比增长 10%，Dynamics 同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a target price of HKD 9.85, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% from the current price of HKD 8.11 [4][21]. Core Views - Short-term performance is expected to be challenging due to a decline in consumer spending in the Chinese beer market, with a projected 9.4% year-on-year decrease in overall organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by an 11.4% drop in sales volume [2][10]. - Despite short-term difficulties, the long-term outlook remains positive due to Budweiser APAC's strong product and brand mix in the premium and super-premium segments, which could provide significant earnings elasticity as consumer spending recovers [2][11]. - The company's current valuation is considered attractive, and its strong management capabilities and backing from AB InBev enhance its appeal to foreign investors [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a 9.4% decline in organic revenue, with sales volume down 11.4% and a slight average price increase of 2.2% [2][10]. - The normalized EBITDA decreased by 16.6% year-on-year, reflecting the negative operating leverage from the significant revenue drop [10][11]. - The company anticipates that the downward trend in revenue and EBITDA will likely continue into Q4 2024 [2][11]. Market Analysis - In the Chinese market, Q3 2024 sales volume fell by 14.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of on-premise sales channels, which were more adversely affected than off-premise channels [2][11]. - The management noted that there has been no significant impact from policy stimulus on beer demand in Q4 2024, suggesting continued pressure on sales and average pricing [2][11]. - Conversely, the South Korean market showed resilience with a double-digit year-on-year growth in organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by price increases and improved product mix [12][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC are expected to decline to USD 6.245 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][18]. - The net profit is projected to drop to USD 700 million in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 17.8% [3][18]. - The report highlights a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.6x for 2024, which is expected to improve to 15.3x by 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3][18].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 首旅酒店（600258.CH）：高基数下 3Q24 RevPAR 承压，门店结构优化布局长期改善 受到去年暑期高基数影响，首旅酒店 3Q24 RevPAR 同比下降 7.8%，主 要是 ADR 同比下降 5.5%引致。RevPAR 的大幅同比下降导致 3Q24 收 入同比下滑 6.4%，毛利率同比下滑 2.3ppt。公司加强营销举措以及加 大门店开发力度，导致销售费用率同比增长 1.3ppt，令经营利润率同 比下降 2.1ppt 至 25.4%。尽管今年业绩仍旧承压，但根据 2025 年更为 快速的开店预期，我们调整 2024-2026E 盈利预测，维持首旅酒店"持 有"评级，并上调目标价至人民币 15.5 元。 高基数下 RevPAR 下降带动收入同比下滑：从标准店的经营情况来看， 由于上年暑期出行需求较高使上年同期基数较高，令首旅酒店 3Q24 RevPAR（不含轻管理酒店）同比下降 6%。RevPAR 的下滑主要是平均 房价的 3Q24 相较去年同期较高水平回调，ADR 同比降低 4.7%，但由 于暑期出行需求旺盛，出租率同比下跌 1ppt。如包 ...