浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 台积电 （2330. T T/TSM.US） 公司研究 | 科技行业 台积电（2330.TT/TSM.US）：三季度毛 利率超市场预期，AI 强劲需求将带动 四季度毛利率提升 上调台积电 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并上调台积电（2330.TT）目 标价至 1,273.5 新台币，潜在升幅 17%，上调台积电（TSM.US）目标 价至 228.8 美元，潜在升幅 13%，均维持"买入"评级。 重申台积电的"买入"评级：台积电，作为全球晶圆龙头，充分享受 本轮 AI 浪潮中供应端算力的增量红利。而且，得益于先进制程的领 先地位，台积电几乎覆盖了跟 AI 相关的全部需求。我们看到公司今 年 AI 相关产品需求持续旺盛。在本次三季度业绩会上，台积电再次 上调全年收入增速指引至接近 30%，上调全年资本开支至略高于 320 亿美元。这也表明台积电仍处在半导体周期上行阶段。我们预计公司 2024 年、2025 年盈利将同比增长 36%、33%，对应 2024 年、2025 年 市盈率为 28.6x、21.5x，对应 EV/EBITDA 为 16.5x、13.2x。我们重申 对台 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略月报 月度市场策略： 如何把握盘整期的结构性机会？ 策略月报 | 投资策略 月度市场策略：如何把握盘整期 的结构性机会？ 近期市场交易逻辑已发生变化。9 月 24 日，国新办发布会宣布了一系 列货币宽松政策，以及房地产和资本市场支持政策，整体规模大超市 场预期。两天后罕见地在九月召开的政治局经济会议进一步确认政策 宽松基调，政策转向使得市场信心大受鼓舞，刺激中国股票市场大幅 反弹。然而，10 月 9 日至今，市场静待更多政策刺激出台，乐观市场 情绪有所消化，股指重回震荡态势。在市场情绪尚未扭转前，如果经 济数据或企业盈利出现不及预期的情况，大多数情况下股指会承压。 在市场情绪扭转后，若基本面不及预期，超预期政策出台的可能性或 会加大，反而会提升市场情绪，驱动股指反弹。 复盘日股 1990 年至 2000 年走势。为了更好地分析本轮行情接下来可 能的演绎走向，我们用跨国别与跨市场横向比较的方法来复盘 1990 年至2000年日股所经历的四轮牛市以及分析背后驱动市场的因素（包 括 GDP、通胀、利率、政策和汇率等因素）。我们发现日股在 1992-1993 年的走势尤其值得参考。在该轮牛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lens Technology (300433.CH) with a target price of RMB 26.6, representing a potential upside of 18.1% [1][9]. Core Views - Lens Technology's Q3 performance exceeded both the report's and market expectations, particularly in gross margin. The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the next two years, driven by various factors including the momentum from Apple iPhone, expansion in Android smartphone assembly, new AI PC business, and growth in automotive business [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to R&D and business expansion while maintaining a relatively restrained capital expenditure in the short term, which is favorable for profit growth [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Lens Technology reported revenue of RMB 17.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%, marking five consecutive quarters of double-digit year-on-year growth [1][7]. - The gross margin reached 21.4%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year and 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, surpassing market expectations [1][7]. - Operating profit grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 210%, resulting in a net profit of RMB 1.51 billion, up 38% year-on-year and 173% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects Lens Technology's revenue to reach RMB 68.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% and a net profit of RMB 4.23 billion, reflecting a 40% increase [3][8]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to be RMB 79.9 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.03 billion, indicating a 19% growth [3][8]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 33.0x for smartphones and computers, 30.0x for new energy vehicles, and 25.0x for smart wearables, leading to the target price of RMB 26.6 [9][10].

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Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Spring Medical (688236.CH/1858.HK) with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of RMB 16.20 for A-shares and HKD 10.60 for H-shares [2][3]. Core Insights - Spring Medical's revenue is significantly driven by joint products, which are expected to recover post-2024 as the procurement risks associated with national collection clear up. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the orthopedic consumables market due to an increase in patient numbers, improved treatment rates, and domestic product substitution [2][3]. - The orthopedic consumables sector is projected to experience a recovery in growth following the normalization of anti-corruption measures and the completion of national procurement processes. The company’s knee joint products have also secured procurement contracts, further enhancing revenue visibility [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections indicate a revenue of RMB 1,209 million for 2023, with a decline to RMB 989 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 1,165 million in 2025 and RMB 1,357 million in 2026. The net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 278 million in 2023 to RMB 260 million in 2024, before rising to RMB 311 million in 2025 and RMB 369 million in 2026 [4][12][13]. - The report assigns a target valuation multiple of 20x for A-shares and 12x for H-shares based on the 2025 estimated PE, reflecting a 40% discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [3][6]. Market Context - The orthopedic industry has achieved near-complete national procurement coverage, with joint products expected to see the first alleviation of procurement pressure. The average price reduction for joint products is projected at a moderate 6% [15][18]. - The domestic market share for orthopedic implants is estimated at around 50%, with significant room for growth, particularly in the joint and spinal categories, as domestic brands gain traction following national procurement initiatives [18][19].

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浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 华润微 （688396.CH） 公司研究 | 半导体行业 华润微（688396.CH）：MOS 价格 触底，产能稳步扩张 我们下调了华润微 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，下调目标价至人民币 56.4 元，潜在升幅 16%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申华润微的"买入"评级：华润微正在从功率半导体周期底部复苏 向上。华润微的产能利用率从 2024 年 6 月开始保持满载。虽然 IGBT 的 价格仍然不稳定，但是 MOS 产品价格已经企稳。我们预期华润微今年 下半年收入将较上半年增长，且毛利率保持稳中微升。今年下半年新能 源领域需求将从此前低点复苏，而汽车领域保持较高增长。展望明年， 我们认为华润微业务驱动力主要来自于三个部分：1）MOS 产品，包括 中低压产品，持续上量，2）MOS、IGBT、TMBS、IPM、SiC 五类模块产 品快速增长，3）功率 IC 借助国产化趋势及新产线贡献增量。因此，我 们对公司明年的基本面持续改善保持乐观。MOS、模块产品、功率 IC 产 品三大类将推动公司业绩成长。目前，华润微远期市盈率为 48x，相对 历史高位估值还有上行空间，重申"买入" ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略观点 复盘日股看如何把握盘整期的阿尔法机会 策略观点 | 投资策略 浦银国际策略观点：复盘日股看 如何把握盘整期的阿尔法机会 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 Melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 0411 2024 年 10 月 16 日 为了更好地分析本轮行情接下来可能的演绎走向，我们在本篇报告尝试 用跨国别与跨市场横向比较的方法来复盘 1990 年至 2000 年日股所经 历的四轮牛市以及分析背后驱动市场的因素（包括 GDP、通胀、利率、 政策和汇率等因素）。短期来看，本轮中国股市行情或已进入盘整期， 建议关注优质的港股高息股以及回购较多的绩优蓝筹股。 基本面对股指的表现与行情的持续性至关重要。回顾1990年-2000年， 在日本经济触底反弹或出现增长势头的情况下，日股的累计回报相对 较高，行情的持续时间也更长（比如第三轮和第四轮）。即使一开始由 于政策面反转驱动市场情绪好转会带来一波行情，市场短期关注点集 中在政策面与资金面，一旦投资者情绪恢复理性，关注点往往会回归 基本面，观察经济增长和企业盈利是否出现好转。日元在牛市期间大 多呈现升值趋势，股指中高贝塔+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to $15.9, reflecting a potential upside of 4% from the current price of $15.3 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 9.5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, aligning with its prior guidance, with projected revenue of RMB 20.6 billion [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to be 23.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 1.26 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.1%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - For 2024, the estimated revenue is projected to be RMB 107 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.62 billion and an adjusted net profit margin of 8.0% [2]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 107,047 million, slightly down from the previous forecast of RMB 107,363 million, indicating a change of -0.29% [3]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 25,032 million, with a gross margin of 23.4%, reflecting a minor increase of 0.1 percentage points from the prior forecast [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised to RMB 8,616 million, down 2.85% from the previous estimate of RMB 8,868 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.0% [3].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 虎牙 （HUYA.US） 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 虎牙（HUYA.US）：直播业务或承压， 游戏相关服务预计保持强劲 受直播业务疲软影响，我们预计公司三季度收入环比略微下降 1%至 人民币 15.3 亿元；调整目标价至 4.5 美元，维持"买入"评级。 考虑到用户打赏意愿较弱以及公司运营重点发展新业务，我们预计三 季度公司收入环比略微下降 1%至人民币 15.3 亿元，其中直播收入环 比下降 8%至 11.3 亿元，用户数将保持相对平稳；预计游戏相关服务 同比大幅增长至 3.8 亿元，收入占比提升至 25%；受直播收入下降以 及赛事成本影响，我们预计三季度公司毛利率环比下降 0.3pp 至 13.6%。 考虑到直播业务疲软影响，我们调整公司 2024E 收入预测至人民币 61.1 亿元；预计调整后净利润为 2.72 亿元，调整后净利率为 4.5%。随 着新业务收入占比的提升以及直播业务逐步企稳，我们认为公司未来 毛利率仍有提升空间。公司当前账面预计约有 8-9 亿美元现金价值， 与当前市值相当。公司已于 10 月 9 日除净，派发每股 1.08 美元特别 股息。我们 ...