浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 京东（9618.HK/JD.US）：以旧换新政策 有望推动收入增速回升 得益于以旧换新补贴政策刺激，我们预计公司三季度收入增速将有 所回升，调整目标价至 155 港元/40 美元，维持"持有"评级。 得益于全国各地以旧换新补贴政策陆续上线，我们预计公司三季度收 入增速将有所回升，预计三季度收入为人民币 2582 亿元，同比增长 4.2%，预计 GMV 实现高个位数增长。按品类看，在家电以旧换新补 贴刺激下，预计带电品类收入增速转正；日用百货品类预计将延续良 好增长势头，其中商超品类保持双位数增长。随着公司加大在用户拉 新和促活方面投入，我们预计公司三季度用户数将保持快速增长。 今年双十一大促时间进一步延长，公司折扣力度也预计将有所加大， 并注重消费者体验。我们认为公司四季度有望受益于以旧换新政策刺 激和双十一大促活动，实现收入增速进一步提升。我们调整目标价至 155 港元/40 美元，对应 2024E/2025E 10.4x/10.0x P/E，维持"持有" 评级。 投资风险：行业竞争加剧；用户增长不及预期；利润率不及预期。 图表 1：盈利预 ...

Investment Rating - Upgraded to "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862 HK) with a target price of HKD 19 5 based on 19x 2025 P/E or 10x 2025 EV/EBITDA [2] Core Views - Haidilao's multi-brand strategy visibility has improved with the new brand "Yanqing" expected to accelerate store openings in the next two years [2] - The company plans to open 40-50 new stores in 2H24 and expects net store growth for the full year with annual store openings reaching mid-to-high single-digit percentages of existing stores in 2025-2026 [2] - The new brand "Yanqing" is expected to leverage synergies with Haidilao in procurement labor and rental costs with plans to open 50 stores in 2024 and 150 stores in 2025 [2] - Haidilao's main brand is expected to see stable performance with a slight improvement in operating profit margin in 2H24 due to optimized employee incentives and stable or slightly increased average customer spending [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow by 7 5% in 2024E reaching RMB 44 571 million with a slight increase to RMB 46 505 million in 2025E [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to remain flat in 2024E at RMB 4 498 million but grow by 12 2% in 2025E to RMB 5 047 million [6] - Operating profit margin is projected to improve from 12 3% in 2024E to 12 8% in 2025E [6] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 60 8% in 2024E to 60 9% in 2025E [6] Store Expansion and Operational Metrics - Haidilao opened 11 new stores in 1H24 but closed 43 stores resulting in a net decrease of 32 stores to a total of 1 343 stores [2] - The company plans to accelerate store openings in 2H24 with 40-50 new stores and reduce store closures to single digits [2] - The overall table turnover rate remained stable in July-August 2024 with a slight decline in September but exceeded 5 times per day during the National Day holiday [2] New Brand "Yanqing" - The new brand "Yanqing" is expected to benefit from synergies with Haidilao in procurement labor and rental costs [2] - Management plans to open "Yanqing" stores near existing Haidilao locations and utilize Haidilao store managers for multi-brand management [2] - The company aims to open 50 "Yanqing" stores in 2024 and expand to 150 stores in 2025 with a long-term goal of 300-400 stores in 3-5 years [2] Market Expectations and Valuation - The market expectation for Haidilao's stock price ranges from HKD 12 4 to HKD 26 2 with SPDBI's target price set at HKD 19 5 [4] - The stock's current price is HKD 16 6 with a total market capitalization of HKD 92 640 million [3]

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Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Apple (AAPL US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $264 9, implying a potential upside of 19 5% [3][6] Core Views - Apple is expected to continue leading the AI technology wave, with generative AI potentially opening new growth opportunities for the company [3] - Apple's ecosystem, particularly its software services, is well-positioned to benefit from the integration of generative AI, creating a favorable application scenario for AI on the device side [3] - The company's hardware products, including iPhone, Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro, are expected to see growth driven by AI integration, with iPhone revenue projected to grow by 3% and 8% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively [3] - Apple's service revenue is forecasted to grow by 11 5% annually in FY2025 and FY2026, driven by the expansion of AI capabilities and scale effects [3] Financial Projections - Apple's revenue is expected to grow by 9% and 7% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, reaching $421 6 billion and $450 5 billion [5] - Net profit is projected to grow by 9% in both FY2025 and FY2026, reaching $112 billion and $122 5 billion, respectively [5] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 36 0x and 32 9x for FY2025 and FY2026, respectively [5] AI and Hardware Integration - Apple Intelligence, the company's AI platform, is expected to drive growth in hardware products, particularly iPhone, by enhancing user experience and driving upgrade demand [3][24] - The integration of AI into Apple's ecosystem is expected to create a commercial loop, linking supply-side manufacturers with consumer demand [3] - Apple's AI capabilities are expected to expand to other hardware products, including Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch, further broadening the company's business boundaries [3][24] iPhone Growth and Market Position - iPhone remains Apple's core revenue driver, accounting for over 50% of the company's total revenue [31] - The iPhone's growth is expected to be driven by AI integration, with the company maintaining a strong position in the high-end smartphone market [31][35] - Apple's market share in North America and China is expected to remain stable, with potential growth in emerging markets like India [35] Valuation - The report uses a DCF valuation model, assuming a growth rate of 7% from FY2029 to FY2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 7 4%, to arrive at the target price of $264 9 [4] AI Model and Ecosystem - Apple's AI model, with 3 billion parameters, is optimized for specific tasks and is expected to outperform larger models like Google's Gemma-7B [24][27] - The company's AI ecosystem is expected to integrate with third-party models like OpenAI's GPT-4o, enhancing its capabilities in areas like Siri and other system-level applications [24][25] Hardware Upgrades - The iPhone 16 series is expected to feature significant hardware upgrades, including improved AI capabilities, enhanced camera systems, and larger screen sizes [41][42] - The A18 series chips, built on a second-generation 3nm process, are expected to deliver significant performance improvements, particularly in AI processing [41] Market Outlook - Apple's iPhone shipments are expected to reach 227 million and 234 million units in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by AI integration and hardware upgrades [42] - The company's supply chain is expected to benefit from increased demand for components related to AI and hardware upgrades [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 119 8, implying a potential upside of 19 7% from the current price of HKD 100 1 [2][3] Core Views - Anta Sports' 3Q24 sales performance fell short of market expectations, with both Anta and Fila brands underperforming Anta brand sales grew by mid-single digits, while Fila sales declined by low-single digits [2] - Despite the weak 3Q24 performance, the company has not revised its full-year 2024 sales guidance, with management expressing confidence in achieving the targets due to strong sales during the National Day holiday [2] - The report highlights Anta's continued brand strength, driven by store upgrades and expansion into new e-commerce channels like Douyin, as well as its multi-brand strategy [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 69 369 million, representing an 11 2% YoY growth, while core net profit is forecasted at RMB 12 064 million, up 17 9% YoY [3][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 62 8% in 2024E, with operating margin projected at 24 0% [5] - The report slightly revised down the 2024E revenue and profit forecasts due to a more conservative outlook for 4Q24 [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand's 3Q24 sales grew by mid-single digits, outperforming domestic competitors, while Fila's sales declined by low-single digits, with its core product line remaining flat [2] - Descente and Kolon maintained strong growth momentum in 3Q24, continuing their high growth rates from the first half of the year [2] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta brand at 4-5x and Fila close to 5x, allowing stable retail discounts [2] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that Anta Sports remains one of the fastest-growing brands in China's sportswear industry, benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and strong brand positioning [2] - The company's performance during the National Day holiday was driven by its new offline store formats, such as Anta Champion stores and Super Anta, which capitalized on the surge in tourism and consumption [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 119 8 is based on a 22x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity in Hong Kong, as well as expectations for further stimulus policies [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for Anta's stock price: optimistic (HKD 149 8), base case (HKD 119 8), and pessimistic (HKD 95 8), with probabilities of 25%, 55%, and 20%, respectively [13]

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Global Capital Flows - Global capital flows are undergoing adjustments, with significant inflows into the Chinese market due to the Fed's rate cut and China's economic stimulus policies [2][7] - Emerging markets saw a net inflow of $165.6 billion in September, outperforming developed markets by 5% [2][7] - From September 25 to October 2, emerging markets recorded a net inflow of $154.8 billion, while developed markets saw a net outflow of $106.1 billion [2][7] - The US, China, and Japan all experienced strong domestic capital inflows in September, with the US recording $172.2 billion, China $125.1 billion, and Japan $7.8 billion [7] Foreign Capital Inflows into China - Foreign capital inflows into China have shown signs of a turning point, with passive foreign capital recording a significant net inflow of $5.3 billion from August 29 to September 25 [2][13] - From September 26 to October 2, active foreign capital turned to a net inflow of $3.54 billion, marking the first net inflow of the year [2][13] - Passive foreign capital inflows surged to $58.2 billion during the same period, indicating active trading in the Chinese market [2][13] - Foreign capital positions in the Chinese market remain low, suggesting potential for further inflows if market sentiment remains positive [2][13] Domestic Capital Inflows into China - Domestic capital inflows into China remained strong, with a net inflow of $125.1 billion from August 29 to September 25, though slightly lower than the $165 billion in August [3][13] - From September 26 to October 2, domestic capital recorded a net inflow of $80.3 billion, driven by increased trading activity from both institutional and retail investors [3][13] - The "national team" is likely still actively participating in the market, contributing to the robust inflows [3][13] Hong Kong Market Capital Flows - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong accelerated in September, with a net inflow of $3.1 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of inflows [3][16] - Passive foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong increased significantly to $3.4 billion from September 26 to October 2, while active foreign capital saw a slight net outflow of $0.1 billion [3][16] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong slowed to HK$119.4 billion in September, but their share of daily trading volume rose to 16.5% [3][16] - Southbound capital favored high-beta stocks, particularly in the financial and consumer sectors, which have underperformed year-to-date [3][16] Sector and Stock Preferences - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong were concentrated in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, biotech, consumer services, and retail, while outflows were seen in software, services, and automotive sectors [20][22] - High-beta stocks in the financial and consumer sectors, such as Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), AIA (1299 HK), and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK), were preferred by southbound capital [23][25] - Defensive stocks like China Telecom (728 HK), China Construction Bank (939 HK), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK) also saw continued interest from southbound capital [23][25]

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