浦银国际研究 主题研究 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 主题研究 货币政策宽松已到位， 财政刺激将如何发力？ 货币政策宽松已到位，财政刺激 将如何发力？ 核心观点：我们预计接下来政策刺激还将继续加码，尤其是在财政和房 地产领域。（1）财政政策上，预计在 10 月下旬召开的全国人大常委会会 议或会宣布增发2-3万亿元特别国债用于刺激消费和化解地方债务风险。 在促消费方面，政府或考虑推出税收或社保方面的优惠政策，帮助居民、 尤其是中低收入群体，增加可支配收入以支持消费。大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新政策措施也有进一步扩容空间。在稳投资方面，我们相 信加快超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债的发行以及扩展其使用范围 或仍是政策重点之一。此外，国家发改委有望推出更多储备项目以稳定 基建投资。（2）房地产政策上，在中央政治局会议罕见提出"要促进房 地产市场止跌回稳"的具体要求之后，我们相信房地产调控政策、尤其 在供给端，将继续发力。中央层面提供更多以及更便宜的资金支持收购 房企存量房仍是扭转此轮房地产下行周期的关键所在。收购房企存量土 地的政策细节也值得关注。（3）货币政策上，四季度除了已经预告的 25- 50 个基点降准之外，我 ...

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浦银国际研究 行业点评 | 医药行业 浦银国际 行业点评 医药行业点评 医药板块近期点评：市场情绪显著提振， 建议后续关注创新药、高值耗材 近期医药股走势回顾：过去两周医药板块涨幅近 25%。近期医药板 块跟随大盘明显反弹，9 月 24 日至 10 月 3 日间，MSCI 中国医药指 数上涨 25.3%、港股恒生医疗保健指数上涨 24.7%、恒生生物科技指 数上涨 24.2%、A 股中信医药指数上涨 28.9%，分别跑赢同期大盘 （vs 恒生指数上涨 21.2%、沪深 300 指数上涨 25.1%）。 涨幅前 3 的医药子板块分别为互联网医疗、医疗服务、CXO。9 月 24 日-10 月 3 日间，各医药子板块中表现最好的板块为医疗服务、 互联网医疗、CXO，分别录得 54%、51%、42%的涨幅；其次，连锁 药店、医疗器械、中药分别实现 35%、34%、26%的涨幅；涨幅较小 的板块为制药、医药流通、生物科技，分别录得 24%、23%、19%的 板块涨幅。 医药板块涨幅较大，主要系近期宏观政策推动。我们认为医药板块 此轮大涨中能跑赢大盘的主要由于医药板块前期跌幅较深（截至 9 月 23 日，MSCI 中国医 ...

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浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 宏观洞察 月度中国宏观洞察 月度中国宏观洞察：财政刺激或蓄势 待发，加码经济复苏 数据回顾：8 月经济数据大多弱于预期，9 月先行指标和高频数据未见 内需显著改善迹象。需求依然疲软：8 月数据中代表内需的核心通胀、 信贷、消费、投资等数据均继续走弱；而依然强劲的外需或较难持久。 内需疲软对供给端的拖累作用也在继续增强。在房地产方面，8 月数据 依然喜忧参半。一方面房价跌幅继续扩大，另一方面房产销售跌幅仍 在继续收窄。不过我们观察到 517 房产新政对房产销售促进作用似乎 正在逐渐减退：高频数据显示 30 大中城市 9 月房产销售和去年同期的 差距较前几个月有所拉大。其余的 9 月高频数据则显示服务消费和投 资或仍较为低迷，而汽车销售温和改善。 政策展望：政策刺激将继续，重点关注财政和房地产政策。此轮政策 刺激规模或有望超过去年下半年政策开始转向后的历次增量政策措施。 财政政策将是 10 月政策关注的重点所在：预计在 10 月下旬召开的全 国人大常委会会议或会宣布增发 2-3 万亿元特别国债用于刺激消费和 化解地方债务风险。政府或考虑推出税收或社保方面的优惠政策， ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on AppLovin (APP.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $148, implying a potential upside of 16% [2][3] Core Views - AppLovin is a leading player in the mobile advertising industry with a comprehensive ecosystem, driven by its AI-powered advertising engine AXON 2.0, which has significantly boosted its growth [2] - The company is expanding beyond gaming into e-commerce and connected TV (CTV) advertising, which could further enhance its market potential [2] - AppLovin's software platform business benefits from low marginal costs and high operating leverage, with a 73% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2Q24 [2] Industry Overview - The global in-app advertising (IAA) market is expected to reach $352.7 billion in 2024, accounting for over 40% of digital ad revenue, with a CAGR of 9% from 2024 to 2028 [10] - The in-game advertising (IGA) market is projected to grow to $109.6 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.5% from 2024 to 2028 [10] - Regulatory changes, such as the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) and privacy policies like Apple's ATT, are reshaping the mobile advertising landscape, creating opportunities for more flexible and adaptive ad tech companies [12][13] Company Analysis AI-Driven Growth - AppLovin's AI advertising engine, AXON 2.0, has driven a 75% YoY growth in ad revenue in 2Q24, with the company expecting over 20% annual growth in ad revenue in the coming years [2] - The company's AI capabilities are supported by its extensive data and technological expertise, which enhance its competitive advantage [20] Expansion into Non-Gaming Sectors - AppLovin is focusing on e-commerce as a key growth area, with successful tests in e-commerce advertising and plans to scale up investments in this sector [2][32] - The company is also exploring opportunities in CTV advertising through its acquisition of Wurl, aiming to leverage AXON 2.0's capabilities in this space [34] Financial Performance - AppLovin's software platform business has a high adjusted EBITDA margin of 73% in 2Q24, with 81% of incremental revenue converting to adjusted EBITDA [36] - The company's free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA ratio stands at 74%, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [36] Valuation - The report values AppLovin's software platform business at 20x FY25E EV/EBITDA and its apps business at 5x FY25E EV/EBITDA, resulting in a target price of $148 [41][42] Competitive Landscape - AppLovin's AppDiscovery platform is a leading user acquisition tool in the mobile gaming market, ranking second in Android and first in iOS [22] - MAX, AppLovin's monetization solution, is the largest mediation platform in mobile gaming, with a 2/3 market share [24] - Adjust, the company's attribution platform, ranks second in market share, providing valuable insights for optimizing ad campaigns [26]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price raised to $7.0, representing a potential upside of 24% [2][5][12]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to achieve sales of 230,000 electric vehicles this year, driven by the delivery of high-margin "7778" models and the introduction of new sub-brands and models [2][3]. - The company anticipates significant growth in total vehicle sales due to the upcoming launch of the L60 model and other new models, which will enhance its product matrix and pricing coverage [2][3]. - NIO's gross margin improved to 12.2% in Q2 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and is projected to reach 15% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 49,269 million in 2022 to RMB 133,560 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing cost optimization [4][10]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 14,559 million in 2022 to RMB 8,036 million by 2026, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [4][10]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.2x for automotive sales and 3.8x for other sales, leading to a target price of $7.0 for NIO's U.S. shares [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x for 2024 and 0.9x for 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][3]. Sales and Performance Metrics - In Q2 2024, NIO reported revenue of RMB 17,446 million, a 99% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1,689 million, reflecting a gross margin of 9.7% [9][10]. - Vehicle sales reached 57,373 units in Q2 2024, marking a 144% increase compared to the same quarter last year [9][10].

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