Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an upgraded target price of HKD 19.3 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 56.7 for the A-share, indicating potential upside of 22% and 26% respectively [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing an upward trend in the semiconductor fundamentals, with a projected 14% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q3 and a gross margin target of 19%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. This growth is driven by local demand, optimization of product mix, and favorable pricing [2][3]. - The second quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with a 9% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year revenue increase. The company anticipates a 34% year-over-year revenue growth for Q3 [2][6]. - The company expects to increase its 12-inch capacity by approximately 60,000 wafers per month by the end of the year, which is higher than previous plans [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached USD 1.901 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year and a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter. Gross profit was USD 265 million, with a gross margin of 13.9% [6]. - The net profit for Q2 was USD 165 million, a 59% decrease year-over-year but a 129% increase quarter-over-quarter [6]. Revenue and Margin Guidance - For Q3, the company projects revenue to be between USD 1.695 billion and USD 2.167 billion, with a gross margin target of 19% [7]. - The guidance reflects a significant improvement in both revenue and margin compared to previous quarters, indicating strong operational performance [2][7]. Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with expected revenues of USD 7.875 billion, USD 9.318 billion, and USD 10.617 billion respectively, reflecting a 16% to 14% increase from previous estimates [8]. - The adjusted EBITDA and net profit forecasts also reflect a positive outlook, although net profit margins are expected to decline slightly [8]. Market Position - The company's current price-to-book ratio is 0.8x for the Hong Kong stock and 2.7x for the A-share, both indicating potential for upward movement compared to historical averages [2][11].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and Hua Hong Company (688347 CH) [2] - The target price for Hua Hong HK is HKD 23.3, with a potential upside of 21%, and for Hua Hong A-shares, it is RMB 43.7, with a potential upside of 27% [2][3] Core Views - Hua Hong Semiconductor's 2Q24 performance met market expectations, with a significant improvement in gross margin and capacity utilization [2] - The company's gross margin in 2Q24 reached 10.5%, exceeding the guidance range, and is expected to continue improving in 3Q24 [2] - The second 12-inch fab in Wuxi is expected to start trial production in 4Q24 and officially operate in 1Q25, contributing to long-term revenue growth [2] - The company anticipates price increases across most product lines in 3Q24 and 4Q24, except for IGBT, which remains weak [2] - The EV/EBITDA target valuation for 2024 has been raised to 11x, reflecting improved fundamentals [2] Financial Performance and Guidance - 2Q24 revenue declined by 24% YoY but showed a sequential improvement, with a 7% QoQ growth expected in 3Q24 [2] - 2Q24 net profit was $6.67 million, down both YoY and QoQ due to increased expenses from new fabs [2] - 3Q24 revenue guidance is $510 million, with a gross margin of 11%, indicating further improvement [2][8] - The company aims to achieve gross margins of 45%-50% for 8-inch fabs and 25%-30% for 12-inch fabs within 12-16 months [2] Valuation and Financial Metrics - Hua Hong HK's current price-to-book ratio is 0.7x, below the historical average of 1.0x, indicating attractive valuation [2][11] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for Hua Hong HK is 4.1x, significantly below the historical average of 15.0x [11] - The company's free cash flow is expected to improve, with a forecast of -$416 million in 2024E and -$313 million in 2025E [6] Industry and Competitive Position - Hua Hong Semiconductor benefits from the semiconductor industry's upward momentum, with improving product mix and pricing power [2] - The company's capacity utilization has significantly improved, supporting gross margin expansion [2] - The Wuxi 12-inch fab's capacity is expected to reach 20,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, driving long-term growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at $1,996 million, with a gross margin of 11.5% [9] - EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at $492 million, with an EBITDA margin of 24.6% [9] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be $65 million, with a net profit margin of 3.3% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to USD 285, HKD 171, and CNY 181 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 performance significantly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by strong sales growth of Zebutinib in the US and Europe. The company achieved its first adjusted Non-GAAP operating profit, marking a positive surprise in this earnings report [1]. - Total revenue for Q2 2024 reached USD 929 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 56.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23.6%. Product revenue was USD 921 million, up 66.3% year-over-year and 23.2% quarter-over-quarter, significantly surpassing expectations [1]. - Zebutinib's global sales reached USD 637 million, with US sales at USD 479 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 114.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.3%. The management indicated that Zebutinib has captured over 40% market share in the CLL indication in the US [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of USD 120 million for Q2 2024, a decrease of 68.4% year-over-year and 52.1% quarter-over-quarter, which was better than expectations due to stronger product revenue and higher gross margins [1]. - The overall product gross margin reached 85% in Q2 2024, up 2.3 percentage points year-over-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. Research and Development Progress - The company is focusing on key pipeline projects, including Sonrotoclax (BCL2) and BGB-16673 (BTK CDAC), with ongoing clinical trials and expected data readouts in late 2024 and early 2025 [1][3]. - The management anticipates further improvements in gross margins and a reduction in R&D and administrative expense ratios as Zebutinib sales continue to grow [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company announced a relocation of its registered office from the Cayman Islands to Switzerland, reflecting its global strategic expansion [3]. - The establishment of a large-scale production facility in New Jersey is now operational, which will support the supply of its products in the US and Europe [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of $60 per share or HKD 47 per share, indicating a potential upside of +231% from the current price of $18.1 and +201% from HKD 15.6 [3][4][6]. Core Insights - Zai Lab's 2Q24 revenue exceeded expectations, primarily driven by strong growth in Efgartigimod, with a 76% quarter-over-quarter increase. The company raised its full-year sales guidance for Efgartigimod to over $80 million, up from the previous estimate of over $70 million [1][6]. - The company reported 2Q24 product revenue of $100.1 million, a 45.4% year-over-year increase, and a net loss of $80.28 million, which was higher than expected due to increased sales and administrative expenses [1][6]. - Efgartigimod's growth momentum is strong, with approximately 3,300 new patients added in 2Q24, and the company is on track to meet its annual target of 1,000 hospitals [1][6]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Zai Lab is expected to grow from $215 million in 2022 to $995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2024 to 2026 [7][11]. - The company anticipates a reduction in net losses from $443 million in 2022 to a projected profit of $37 million by 2026 [7][11]. - The gross margin for the company is projected to stabilize around 64.8% by 2026, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [11]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key upcoming catalysts include the approval of new indications for Efgartigimod, submissions for four drug applications in China, and important clinical data readouts expected in 2H24 and 1H25 [1][8]. - The company plans to launch the subcutaneous formulation of Efgartigimod in 4Q24 and expand its indications to include CIDP and thyroid eye disease [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, positioning it as a top choice in the restaurant industry with a target price of $38.8, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current price of $29.8 [6][24]. Core Insights - Yum China's strong performance in Q2 2024 exceeded market expectations, demonstrating its robust counter-cyclical capabilities. The company has rapidly adjusted its product structure to meet consumer demand for value, leading to increased customer traffic and order volume [6][19]. - The company has implemented cost-cutting and efficiency measures to offset the negative impact of declining average transaction values on profit margins, resulting in a year-on-year increase in operating profit margin and a 4% growth in operating profit for Q2 2024 [6][19]. - The flexible pricing strategy and innovative store models, such as the Pizza Hut WOW concept, have expanded the customer base and opened up greater opportunities for store expansion in lower-tier markets [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue growth of 3% year-on-year, with operating profit margin stabilizing around 10% and net profit increasing in the mid-single digits [6][19]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue of $11,296 million for 2024, with a slight increase in net profit to $867 million, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year growth [12][21]. - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of food and packaging costs relative to revenue, which only increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while employee costs slightly decreased due to efficiency improvements [6][19]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2022 was $9,569 million, increasing to $10,978 million in 2023, with a projected revenue of $11,296 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [12][21]. - The net profit for 2022 was $444 million, with a significant increase to $823 million in 2023, and a projected net profit of $867 million for 2024, indicating a growth of 4.8% [12][21]. - The report provides a forecasted PE ratio for Yum China of 14.9x for 2024, down from 16.9x in 2023, indicating a more attractive valuation [12][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.US) with a target price of $240.7, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price of $159.3 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY3Q24 performance aligns with market expectations, and the guidance for FY4Q24 is slightly above market forecasts. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of edge AI applications, particularly in smartphones, electric vehicles, and AI PCs [1][2]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of smartphone chips is expected to rise due to increased demand for high-end models in China. Additionally, the penetration of smart cockpit and autonomous driving technologies in electric vehicles is projected to contribute to new revenue streams, with automotive revenue expected to reach $4 billion by FY2026 [1][2]. - The next-generation Snapdragon 8 series chips will utilize Qualcomm's proprietary Oryon CPU platform, enhancing the company's autonomy in optimization [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY3Q24, Qualcomm reported revenues of $9.393 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, with a gross margin of 55.6% [6][7]. - The guidance for FY4Q24 anticipates revenue growth of 8% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in mobile business and low double-digit growth in IoT [1][6]. - The projected revenues for FY2024 are $38.687 billion, with a net profit of $9.502 billion, reflecting a 31% increase year-over-year [5][6]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a growth rate of 12% for FY2029-FY2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 11.2%. The target price of $240.7 corresponds to a FY2024 PE of 28.4x [2][3].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant global fund rebalancing in July, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to net inflows in stock markets of the US, India, the UK, and France [2][8] - The US stock market recorded a net inflow of $17.98 billion in July, an increase from $15.55 billion in June, while the Indian market saw a net inflow of $2.3 billion [8][13] - The report highlights that the domestic market in China experienced a net inflow of $26.3 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow in the past five years, driven by the "national team" entering the market [13][19] Group 2 - The report notes that passive foreign capital outflows from the Chinese market accelerated, with a total outflow of $5.59 billion in July, compared to an outflow of $1.85 billion in June [13][19] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of RMB 16.63 billion in July, a significant decrease from a net inflow of RMB 44.45 billion in June, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [16][19] - Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of HKD 47.95 billion in July, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and growth stocks, particularly in the banking, public utilities, and telecommunications sectors [25][27] Group 3 - Defensive stocks and oversold stocks were favored by northbound capital, with significant inflows into sectors such as multi-financial, biopharmaceuticals, and public utilities [19][21] - The report identifies specific companies that attracted northbound capital, including China Nuclear Power and Guotou Power, while companies like Industrial Fulian and Midea Group faced outflows [21][23] - Southbound capital showed a preference for traditional high-yield stocks and quality growth stocks, with notable investments in companies like ICBC and Tencent [25][27]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 和黄医药（HCM.US/13.HK）：强劲呋喹替尼 海外销售推动业绩超预期；重申首选推荐 呋喹替尼 2Q24 实现海外 7,680 万美元销售额，推动和黄医药 1H24 肿瘤收入和净利润超预期。公司维持全年肿瘤板块收入 3-4 亿美元指 引，预计全年数字偏向指引高端区间。此外，公司降本增效成果显著， 有望较之前指引（2025 年底）提前实现盈利。重申我们的首选推荐 和"买入"评级，上调目标价至 26 美元/40.5 港元。 1H24 业绩超预期，主要受益于呋喹海外替尼继续超预期及研发费用 低于预期：1H24 肿瘤/免疫业务综合收入（consolidated revenue）为 1.687 亿美元，超过我们预期和市场预期，主要受益于呋喹替尼上半 年实现超预期美国市场销售额(in-market sales) 1.305 亿美元（2Q24 呋喹替尼在美国实现约7,680万美元销售额，对应约42% QoQ增长）。 公司实现净利润 2,580 万美元(vs. 1H23 净利润 1.686 亿美元，主要 由于收到武田首付款 2.587 亿美元)，明显强于市场和我们原本预期 的净亏损， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.2, representing a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of HKD 9.4 [2] Core Views - Despite a significant decline in 2Q24 performance in China due to unfavorable factors, the long-term premiumization trend in the Chinese market remains intact, with expected improvement in volume and price performance in 2H24 due to a low base [1] - Korea's 2Q24 organic revenue and normalized EBITDA showed strong growth, expected to continue in 3Q24 [1] - Budweiser APAC's 1H24 organic cost per ton decreased by 0.6% YoY, leading to a 127bps expansion in organic gross margin, with this trend expected to continue in 2H24 due to a 12-month price lock-in mechanism [1] - The company's flexible cost control measures are expected to keep the full-year expense ratio stable YoY, with normalized EBITDA likely to return to positive growth in 2H24 [1] China Market Analysis - 2Q24 organic revenue in China declined by 15.2% YoY, with volume and organic price per ton down by 10.3% and 5.4% respectively [1] - China's normalized EBITDA fell by 17.2% YoY, slightly higher than the revenue decline, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and cost control flexibility [1] - In 3Q24, volume decline in China is expected to narrow significantly due to improved weather during the peak season and a low base, with price per ton likely to return to positive growth as premium and above products recover [1] - Long-term growth potential lies in expanding distribution channels for premium and above products through the BEES platform and increasing market share in non-on-premise channels [1] Korea Market Analysis - Korea's 2Q24 volume grew by mid-single digits, with price per ton expanding by mid-teens, driving high-teens revenue growth [1] - APAC East's normalized EBITDA surged by 69.6% YoY, with normalized EBITDA margin expanding by 899bps [1] - The strong performance is attributed to a low base from the April 2023 tax hike, two price increases in 2023, improved channel and brand structure, cost control, and lower raw material prices [1] - Market share increased in both on-premise and non-on-premise channels in 2Q24, with continued strong growth expected in 3Q24 if no further tax hikes occur [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - 1H24 revenue declined by 7% YoY to USD 3,399 million, with volume down 6% and price per ton down 2% [8] - Gross margin improved to 51.5% in 1H24 from 50.9% in 1H23, driven by cost control measures [8] - Normalized EBITDA for 1H24 was USD 1,100 million, down 6% YoY, with a margin of 32.4% [8] - Full-year 2024 revenue is forecasted at USD 6,670 million, down 2.7% YoY, with normalized EBITDA expected to grow by 1% to USD 2,049 million [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 2.6% to USD 874 million in 2024, with a net margin of 13.1% [9] Valuation - The SOTP valuation based on 2024E EBITDA suggests a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x, implying a target price of HKD 11.2 [11] - APAC East and APAC West are valued at EV/EBITDA multiples of 4.0x and 9.0x respectively [11]

浦银国际 宏观洞察 月度美国宏观洞察 浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 扫码关注浦银国际研究 美国 6 月经济数据继续朝利好降息的方向前行： 金晓雯，PhD，CFA 首席宏观分析师 xiaowen_jin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6437 核心观点：美国 6 月经济数据继续朝利好降息的方向前行。加上美联 储 7 月会议态度明显转鸽，我们继续维持 9 月开始降息，下半年一共 降 50 个基点的基本观点。然而，如果劳动力市场恶化的速度快于预期， 我们也不排除美联储需要加快降息步伐的可能性。我们预计短期内降 息的明朗化或再小幅拉低美元指数和美国 10 年期国债收益率，年底两 者表现或与选举结果有关。 2024 年 8 月 1 日 首先，劳动力市场似乎在加速恶化，符合我们此前的预期。第一，7 月 初发布的6月非农报告显示失业率再上升0.1个百分点到4.1%（图表 1）， 距离触发萨姆法则仅一步之遥（当美国 3 个月失业率移动平均值减去前 一年失业率最低点所得数值超过 0.5%时，经济正经历衰退）。平均时薪 同比和环比增速均有所下滑。第二，本周刚发布的 JOLT 职位空缺和失业 人数的比率进一步下 ...