Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an **Overweight** rating [1] Core Views - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area and sales amount improving in October 2024, driven by policy relaxation and market confidence restoration [6][19] - Investment in the real estate sector continues to decline, with new construction starts falling, while completion data shows a slight improvement [7][33] - Funding sources for real estate developers have shown a slight recovery, with expectations of further improvement due to policy support [8][37] - Policy relaxation continues, with housing prices showing a year-on-year decline, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize [38] Key Company Performance - **Poly Development**: Current stock price is 10.11 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 1.53 in 2022 to 1.27 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Merchants Property Operation & Service**: Current stock price is 10.95 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.56 in 2022 to 1.19 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services**: Current stock price is 30.75 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.97 in 2022 to 2.23 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **Poly Property**: Current stock price is 31.30 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 2.01 in 2022 to 3.93 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [3] Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to October 2024, the sales area of commercial housing was 77,930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, with residential sales area down by 17.7% [15] - The sales amount of commercial housing was 7,685.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, with residential sales amount down by 22.0% [15] - National real estate development investment was 8,630.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with residential investment down by 10.4% [15] Sales Recovery and Policy Impact - Sales area and sales amount in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with sales area up by 1.3 percentage points and sales amount up by 1.8 percentage points compared to September 2024 [19] - Policy relaxation, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed purchase restrictions, has contributed to the recovery in sales [19] Investment and Construction Trends - Real estate investment in January-October 2024 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with new construction starts down by 22.6% and completion area down by 23.9% [33] - Despite the decline in investment, the completion area showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2024 [33] Funding Sources and Future Outlook - Funding sources for real estate developers improved slightly, with a 0.8 percentage point increase in the growth rate of funds received compared to September 2024 [37] - Policy support, including increased credit quotas for project financing, is expected to further improve funding conditions [37] Policy Relaxation and Housing Prices - Housing prices continue to decline year-on-year, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize due to ongoing policy relaxation [38] - The central government's policy stance of "stabilizing the market" is expected to support a gradual recovery in housing prices [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong performance and high safety margins, particularly those operating in first- and second-tier cities [45] - Key companies to watch include **Binjiang Group**, **Chengdu Hi-Tech**, **China Merchants Shekou**, **Huafa Group**, and **Poly Development** [45] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like **Beike**, **Greentown China**, **Yuexiu Property**, and **China Resources Land** are recommended [45]

Group 1 - The report discusses the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024, which includes 24 specific aluminum product codes [1][17]. - Export tax rebates have been a significant policy since 1985, contributing to China's position as the world's largest goods trader, with rebates increasing from 1.04 trillion yuan in 2012 to 1.71 trillion yuan in 2023 [18]. - Historical analysis shows that the cancellation of export tax rebates in 2007 led to a significant decline in aluminum exports, with aluminum alloy hollow profiles experiencing a 22% year-on-year drop in July 2007 [20][23]. Group 2 - The impact of the recent cancellation of export tax rebates varies by industry; while aluminum and copper industries may face short-term cost increases and profit declines, it could encourage a shift towards higher value-added products in the long run [29][30]. - The solar and battery industries will still benefit from some level of tax rebate, helping maintain their competitiveness in international markets despite a reduction in rebate rates [29][30]. - The report indicates that the overall economic environment is showing signs of stabilization, with industrial production and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing remaining strong, supported by fiscal policy [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The Bald Hill mine has entered a closure and maintenance phase, impacting lithium supply [1] - Domestic policies continue to support the market, with expected price elasticity for minor metals, particularly in rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [1] - Short-term demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with increasing uncertainty on the supply side, leading to a price rebound [1] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and high demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] - Tin prices are anticipated to increase as semiconductor demand recovers and photovoltaic sector remains strong [1] Market Review - The small metal prices have shown divergence this week, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 5.26% to 80,000 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.94% to 420,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide fell by 2.86% [1] - Tin prices on SHFE decreased by 6.61% and LME tin fell by 10.21% [1] - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 0.68%, while antimony concentrate prices remained stable [1] Demand Trends - The photovoltaic sector is entering a peak season, with domestic new installations in September 2024 reaching 20.89 GW, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales in October reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6% [1] - Battery production in October totaled 113.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [1] - The production of cathode materials in October was 298,800 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.39% [1] Lithium Market - Lithium prices have rebounded, with the main contract price increasing by 0.90% to 78,300 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 80,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.26% increase [1] - The supply side shows a weekly production of 14,507 tons of lithium carbonate, with social inventory decreasing [1] - The Bald Hill mine's closure signals potential further production cuts as lithium prices decline [1] Rare Earth Market - The uncertainty in Myanmar's supply continues, with expectations for gradual price increases in rare earths [1] - The domestic price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.86% [1] - The price of antimony concentrate remains stable at 125,000 CNY/ton, while antimony ingot prices are at 146,900 CNY/ton [1] Tin Market - Tin prices are expected to trend upwards due to recovering demand and supply constraints [1] - SHFE tin prices closed at 243,500 CNY/ton, down 6.61% from the previous week [1] - The import volume of tin ore in September was 7,873 tons, a decrease of 9% month-on-month [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including WuXi AppTec, China Resources Sanjiu, Dong-E E-Jiao, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and others [2][4][38]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's performance is closely tied to market trends, with a recommendation to shift focus towards 2025. The report notes that the sector has experienced a decline of 3.92% this week, underperforming the broader market [3][15]. - The recent release of the medical insurance fund prepayment policy is expected to alleviate some financial pressures on medical institutions, enhancing their sustainability and operational efficiency [17][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with improving fundamentals, particularly those in high-growth or turnaround situations, as the market transitions towards 2025 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Key Company Performance - WuXi AppTec: 2024E EPS forecast at 3.41, PE ratio at 15.51, rated "Buy" [2]. - China Resources Sanjiu: 2024E EPS forecast at 2.57, PE ratio at 18.73, rated "Buy" [2]. - Dong-E E-Jiao: 2024E EPS forecast at 2.25, PE ratio at 25.89, rated "Buy" [2]. - Xianju Pharmaceutical: 2024E EPS forecast at 0.69, PE ratio at 18.28, rated "Buy" [2]. - Other companies such as Kangfang Biotech and Aier Eye Hospital also received "Buy" ratings with positive EPS forecasts [2]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date return of -9.8%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which has a return of 15.7% [23]. - All sub-sectors within pharmaceuticals experienced declines this week, with medical services down 5.51% and chemical pharmaceuticals down 4.08% [5][23]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 23.8x PE based on 2024 earnings forecasts, with a premium of 19% over the broader A-share market [27]. - Using TTM valuation, the sector stands at 27.7x PE, below its historical average of 35.3x PE, indicating potential undervaluation [27]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers include Nuotai Biological, which saw a monthly increase of 11.68% and a weekly increase of 3.16% [37][38]. - The average performance of recommended stocks was a monthly increase of 3.88%, outperforming the pharmaceutical sector by 2.26% [37].

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多款 AI 眼镜发布，端侧百花齐放 电子 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1 证券研究报告：大宗商品观察系列 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 全球制造业PMI跟踪：10月回暖 谢鸿鹤（ SAC证书编号：S0740517080003 ） 安永超（ SAC证书编号：S0740522090002 ） 2024年11月17日 42 40 -0.15 0 9-0 6 0 9-10 10-0 2 10-0 6 10-10 11-0 2 11-0 6 11-10 12-0 2 12-0 6 全球制造业景气（vs.库存周期）刻度：低位震荡 10月全球制造业PMI (J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI)指数录得49.4，环比回升0.7个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。若以2023年1月份为启动点，目前本轮周期累计 运行22个月，在全球主要经济体逆周期调节等政策，尤其是新兴市场的拉动下，下滑趋势有所放缓并出现低位震荡。 图表： 全球制造业PMI指数与库存周期滤波图 60 全球制造业摩根大通PMI 库存周期（即基钦周期，滤波数据，40个月，右轴） 库存周期象限分界 0.15 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

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光伏、电池出口退税率下调，海风招标密集发布 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

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