食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 6 日 603345.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 90.06 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 安井食品 2024 年 3 季报业绩点评 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (45%) (33%) (21%) (9%) 2% 14% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Oct-24Nov-24 安井食品 上证综指 绝对 (12.9) (9.3) 13.7 (29.0) 相对上证综指 (27.1) (10.8) (4.4) (39.7) | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | 293.29 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | 293.29 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 26,414.08 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 411.16 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The era of intelligent agents is approaching, and embodied intelligence is expected to become the best carrier for intelligent agents [3] - Simulation software is likely to be widely used in embodied intelligence training, with a focus on companies with flexible and fluid simulation technologies [3] - The commercialization paths for embodied intelligence include general-purpose robots, pure software solutions, and vertical domain hardware-software integration [3] Embodied Intelligence as the Best Carrier - Embodied intelligence consists of a physical body and an intelligent agent, enabling self-decision-making capabilities [14] - Small end-side devices cannot handle large model parameters, making embodied intelligence robots the best carriers for intelligent agents [16] - The parameter size of large models has grown significantly, with GPT-4 Turbo reaching 1.8 trillion parameters, and domestic models like SenseTime's "RIRIXIN" reaching 180 billion parameters [16] Simulation in Embodied Intelligence Training - Simulation software can provide low-cost, large-scale data for training embodied intelligence, solving the high cost and difficulty of collecting real-world data [3] - Flexible and fluid simulation technologies have higher technical barriers, giving companies with these capabilities a competitive edge [3] - Mainstream training methods for embodied intelligence include teleoperation, motion capture, and large models, with simulation data being cost-effective for large-scale skill acquisition [31] Commercialization Paths for Embodied Intelligence - **General-purpose robots**: This path requires high capital and technical investment, with industry giants like Tesla accelerating their布局 [3] - **Pure software path**: Focuses on designing universal operating systems, with companies like NVIDIA and Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem benefiting [3] - **Vertical domain hardware-software integration**: Companies can build data barriers in specific fields, with leaders in niche markets holding core advantages [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with flexible and fluid simulation technologies, such as **Suochen Technology**, are recommended for investment [3] - Companies collaborating with NVIDIA and Huawei, such as **Ninebot**, **Zhongjian Technology**, **Gosuncn**, **Runhe Software**, and **Allied Vision**, are also recommended [3] - Leaders in specific vertical domains, such as **Hikvision Robotics**, are highlighted for their potential in the embodied intelligence market [3] CAE Market and Domestic Substitution - The CAE market in China is expected to grow from RMB 3.21 billion in 2021 to RMB 7.48 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% [40] - Domestic substitution demand for CAE software is estimated to exceed RMB 5 billion, with **Suochen Technology** well-positioned to benefit from this trend [68] - **Suochen Technology** has a strong presence in the military and aerospace sectors, with its CAE software covering fluid, structural, optical, and electromagnetic simulations [72]

603986.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 92.08 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (47%) (35%) (23%) (10%) 2% 14% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Oct-24Nov-24 兆易创新 上证综指 绝对 2.3 4.2 18.6 (14.7) 相对上证综指 (12.0) 2.7 0.2 (26.5) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 665.87 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 664.74 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 61,313.51 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 1,433.69 | | 主要股东 | | | | 朱一明 | | 6.87 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Overweight"** rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.65 [1] - The sector rating is **"Outperform"** [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is recovering, with a **8.38% YoY growth in net profit** for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company has a **rich project pipeline**, with total construction-in-progress reaching RMB 2.228 billion, a **44.34% increase** compared to the end of 2023 [3] - The company's **gross margin improved by 3.25 percentage points** to 21.99%, and the net margin increased by 1.81 percentage points to 20.33% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company reported **RMB 10.485 billion in revenue** for the first three quarters of 2024, a **1.22% YoY increase**, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.773 billion, up **8.38% YoY** [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 585 million, a **16.60% YoY decrease** and an **11.66% QoQ decrease** [3] - The company's **EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.08, 1.14, and 1.21**, respectively, with a P/E ratio of 8.9x, 8.4x, and 7.9x [3] Operational Highlights - The company's **power generation in Q3 2024 decreased by 3.51% YoY** to 6.464 billion kWh, mainly due to a **20.19% decline in coal-fired power generation** and a **1.34% decline in wind power generation** [3] - The company's **operating expenses ratio decreased by 0.45 percentage points** to 6.94% in the first three quarters of 2024, with financial expenses ratio dropping by 0.71 percentage points to 3.66% [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company's **2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 3.1%**, reaching RMB 16.118 billion by 2026 [4] - The company's **EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 4.867 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.421 billion in 2026**, with a CAGR of 9.7% [4] - The company's **net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5.9%**, reaching RMB 3.233 billion by 2026 [4] Industry and Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown **strong performance over the past 12 months**, with a **22% increase**, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The company's **market capitalization is RMB 25.689 billion**, with a **3-month average daily trading volume of RMB 196.61 million** [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 25.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.35 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.04% year-on-year [3][5]. - The growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) business is significant, with sales revenue of approximately RMB 10.4 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of about 96% [3][5]. - The general automation and smart elevator businesses faced revenue pressure, with declines in sales due to market conditions and reduced demand in the real estate sector [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.02%, down 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.45%, down 3.18 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 18.12% [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The NEV segment continues to grow rapidly, while the general automation and smart elevator segments are under pressure due to declining demand in related industries [3][5]. - The revenue from the general servo system and PLC&HMI segments was approximately RMB 4.3 billion and RMB 1 billion, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline [3][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1.85, RMB 2.26, and RMB 2.67, respectively, reflecting a downward revision compared to previous forecasts [3][4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 32.8, 26.8, and 22.8 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][6]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the automation equipment sector, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 162.93 billion [2][3]. - The stock has underperformed relative to the Shenzhen Composite Index, with a year-to-date decline of 37% [1][2].

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 6 日 300001.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 22.91 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 1 3 12 (21%) (10%) 1% 12% 23% 34% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Oct-24Nov-24 特锐德 深圳成指 至今 个月 个月 个月 绝对 9.2 4.1 21.8 26.2 相对深圳成指 (7.9) (0.4) (9.3) 14.5 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 1,055.69 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 1,027.95 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 24,185.90 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 348.29 | | 主要股东 | | | | 青岛德锐投资有限公 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 6 日 | | 股票代码 | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | 中银晨会聚焦 -20241106 | | 600383.SH | | | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH | | 安集科技 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the exoskeleton robot industry [1] Core Views - Exoskeleton robots are at a critical point of transitioning from technological maturity to rapid commercialization, with significant investment opportunities [1] - Compared to humanoid robots, exoskeleton robots have unique advantages, such as being more employment-friendly and suitable for China's labor-intensive industries [1] - The market size of exoskeleton robots is expected to match that of humanoid robots, with applications in medical, industrial, military, and consumer sectors [1] - AI-driven technological innovations are accelerating commercialization, with potential future integration of brain-computer interfaces [1] Market and Industry Analysis Exoskeleton Robots Entering Consumer Markets - Exoskeleton technology is expanding from vertical fields like healthcare to consumer markets, with products like the Mo/Go™ exoskeleton pants by Google and Arc'teryx targeting outdoor sports [1] - The introduction of consumer markets is expected to significantly boost industry performance and valuation [1] Advantages Over Humanoid Robots - Exoskeleton robots are more aligned with human interests, such as preserving jobs, enhancing user experience, and reducing ethical conflicts, making them more acceptable in industries like manufacturing [1] - They are particularly suitable for China's labor-intensive industries, as they enhance worker capabilities rather than replacing them [1] Market Size and Growth Potential - The global exoskeleton robot market is projected to grow from $3.92 billion in 2020 to $68 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 33% [21] - In China, the market is expected to grow from 6.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 105.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 98.5% [21] - The market size and growth rate of exoskeleton robots are comparable to those of humanoid robots, with both expected to reach tens of billions of dollars [21] Key Application Scenarios - Medical: Exoskeleton robots are widely used in rehabilitation, elderly care, and disability assistance, with a growing market driven by aging populations and healthcare needs [21][24] - Industrial: They are used in manufacturing, construction, and logistics to enhance worker capabilities and reduce labor injuries [27] - Consumer: Products like the Mo/Go™ exoskeleton pants are targeting outdoor sports and fitness markets, with significant growth potential [29] Technological Advancements - AI and machine learning are driving innovations in exoskeleton robots, particularly in areas like motion control, intent recognition, and human-device interaction [38] - Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is emerging as a key area for future development, enabling more precise control and interaction between humans and exoskeletons [39] Commercialization Progress - The price of exoskeleton robots has dropped to the thousand-yuan level, making them more accessible to consumers [33] - Online sales channels are becoming more widespread, further accelerating commercialization [33] Industry Chain and Key Players - The exoskeleton robot industry chain is relatively mature, with significant overlap in upstream components with humanoid robots [40] - Key players include Ekso Bionics, ReWalk Robotics, and domestic companies like Da Ai Robotics and Aushang Intelligence [42][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has actively reduced inventory and adjusted its delivery pace, leading to a significant decline in revenue for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 44.8% [3][5] - The company is expected to recover its fundamentals after a deep adjustment period, with a projected revenue growth of -10.2%, +1.1%, and +6.9% for 2024-2026 [3][4] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024-2026, with a dividend yield exceeding 5% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 27.52 billion RMB, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.58 billion RMB, down 15.9% year-on-year [3][5] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.64 billion RMB and a net profit of 631 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.8% and 73.0% respectively [5][6] Revenue and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.2%, a decrease of 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix adjustments and increased promotional expenses [3][5] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.41 billion RMB, down 65.3% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3][5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.36 RMB, 5.48 RMB, and 5.88 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.4X, 15.1X, and 14.1X [4][6] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 129.78 billion RMB, with a circulating share count of 1,506.45 million [2][4]

商贸零售 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 5 日 601888.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 70.21 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 1 3 12 (43%) (31%) (20%) (9%) 3% 14% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Oct-24Nov-24 中国中免 上证综指 至今 个月 个月 个月 绝对 (12.9) (9.1) 5.4 (25.8) 相对上证综指 (24.6) (8.3) (8.5) (35.0) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|------------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 2,068.86 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 2,068.86 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 145,254.59 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 1,515.36 | | 主要股东 ...