上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 30 日 安井食品 (603345) ——保持定力 务实进取 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 76.98 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 109.27/68.20 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.33 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 22,578 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,286.65/9,849.80 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 45.55 | | 资产负债率% | 18.70 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 293/293 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 ...

智通财经4月30日电，正值小龙虾上市期，近期小龙虾价格却"跌跌不休"。杭州水产市场的某位工作人 员表示，3月上市初期，小龙虾日销量约1万斤，到4月下旬，日销超10万斤。货量最大的中规格小龙虾 已从40元/斤降到现在的17元/斤，跌幅超过50%。记者以投资者身份致电国联水产，相关人士回应称， 公司去年水产食品业务营收大幅下滑，主要是因为公司供港业务的会计调整，将收入确认方法由"总额 法"调整为"净额法"。公司的小龙虾业务也有一些下滑，暂未披露具体数据，目前正常生产经营。安井 食品接线工作人员表示，公司去年营收与净利润增速下滑，或受行业整体环境影响。小龙虾业务也存在 一定影响，因为小龙虾曾是一个网红产品，近两年热度有所下降，其销量仍保持一定规模，只是价格略 有下滑。 (21财经) 小龙虾价格"跌跌不休" 国联水产、安井食品回应 ...

事件：公司披露2024 年年报，2024 年实现营收151.27 亿元，同比增长7.70%，归母净利润14.85 亿元， 同比增长0.46%；25Q1 实现营收36.00亿元，同比减少4.13%；实现归母净利润3.95 亿元，同比减少 10.01%。 速冻调制食品稳健增长，速冻菜肴制品表现亮眼。2024 年公司速冻调制食品/速冻菜肴制品/速冻面米制 品/农副产品实现营收78.39/43.49/24.65/4.49 亿元，同比+11.41%/+10.76%/-3.14%/-11.74%。 速冻调制食品作为公司基本盘保持稳健增长，其中锁鲜装系列产品在高基数下仍维持较快增长，火山石 烤肠等新品放量显著。速冻菜肴制品增速亮眼，主要受益于安井小厨（小酥肉等）和冻品先生（牛羊肉 卷等）的良好增长。 盈利预测：公司围绕主业实施"三路并进"的经营策略，丰富产品矩阵优化产品结构，产品围绕B 端坚持 高质中价，C 端采取高质中高价策略，顺应行业发展趋势，提高性价比。完善产能布局，渠道端兼顾 BC，在餐饮、流通、商超、电商、新零售等全渠道发力，实现2B、2C 合理均衡发展，为后续增长积蓄 力量。同时安井与鼎味泰签订股份收购协议，标 ...

安井食品 20250429 摘要 • 2024 年安井食品速冻调制品营收 78.39 亿元，同比增长 11.4 亿元，其 中锁鲜装产品营收达 15 亿元，增速近 19%，均价稳定在每公斤 40-41.5 元。预制菜市场总产量 3.5-4 万吨，收入占比提升至 10%左右，毛利率接 近 50%。 • 2024 年速冻菜肴制品营收 43.5 亿元，同比增长 10.7%，小酥肉增长 50%，虾滑增长显著，但虾尾受价格影响下降。速冻面米同比下降 3.14%，规模约 25 亿，农副产品下降 11.74%，受进口饲料价格影响。 • 大单品战略持续推进，2024 年公司有 39 个过亿大单品，占总销售额约 70%，鱼糜制品如鱼子福袋增长 30%，鱼子包达 4 亿水平增长 13%，仿 蟹肉总量 2.5 亿增长 20%。肉类调理食品中，波波肠增长超 10%，撒尿 牛肉丸和猪肉丸分别增长 11%和中大个位数。 • 2024 年全年毛利率为 23.3%，同比增长 0.09 个百分点，净利润增速放 缓至 0.47%。毛利率提升主要得益于调制食品和菜肴制品毛利增加，小酥 肉销量显著，规模效应显现。部分品类受消费行情影响价格波动。 Q& ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Anjoy Food, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [10]. Core Views - Anjoy Food's revenue for 2024 reached 15.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% [4]. - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to demand disturbances, with a forecasted decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [4][8]. - The company has a diverse product matrix, with significant contributions from frozen prepared foods and a notable decline in revenue from casual snacks due to structural adjustments in its subsidiary [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2024 revenue: 15.127 billion yuan, up 7.7% YoY - 2024 net profit: 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% YoY - 2025 projected net profit: 1.580 billion yuan, up 6.4% YoY [6][8]. - Margins: - Gross margin for 2024 was 23.3%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points YoY - Net margin for 2024 was 10.01%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points YoY [7]. - Revenue by Product: - Frozen prepared foods: 7.839 billion yuan, up 11.41% YoY - Frozen dishes: 4.349 billion yuan, up 10.76% YoY - Frozen noodles and rice products: 2.465 billion yuan, down 3.14% YoY - Casual snacks: 0.9497 million yuan, down 80.44% YoY [7]. - Revenue by Channel: - Distributor channel: 12.382 billion yuan, up 8.91% YoY - New retail channel: 0.582 billion yuan, up 32.97% YoY - E-commerce channel: 0.313 billion yuan, down 2.29% YoY [7]. Regional Performance Summary - Revenue by Region: - East China: 6.480 billion yuan, up 6.36% YoY - North China: 2.217 billion yuan, up 5.36% YoY - Central China: 1.928 billion yuan, up 7.44% YoY - Northeast: 1.296 billion yuan, up 7.01% YoY - South China: 1.265 billion yuan, up 9.12% YoY - Overseas: 0.168 billion yuan, up 30.76% YoY [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.580 billion yuan in 2025, 1.732 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.892 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.39, 5.91, and 6.45 yuan [6][8]. - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 14.6 in 2024 to 11.4 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience as a market leader, with steady progress expected in 2025 [1] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 15.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 1.485 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the hot pot ingredient products show better performance than the industry average, with a revenue of 7.84 billion yuan in 2024, up 11% year-on-year [7] - The company’s profit margins remain stable despite pressures from raw material costs and promotions [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 15.13 billion yuan in 2024 to 18.22 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.01% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.625 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.96 billion yuan in 2027, representing a CAGR of about 7% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 5.54 yuan in 2025 to 6.68 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.30 in 2025 to 11.03 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 23.3%, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 12.02% in 2025 to 13.23% in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 103.86 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong earnings resilience in 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 15.13 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.36 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 0.5%, and a slight decline of 0.5% [1][4] - The company is focusing on internal improvements during the off-season to prepare for the peak season, as competition in the frozen food industry has eased compared to the second half of 2024 [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from frozen noodles, prepared foods, and dishes was 2.46 billion, 7.84 billion, and 4.35 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year change of -3.1%, +11.4%, and +10.8% respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 9.8% [3] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its strategic products, such as the "lock-fresh" packaging, which generated over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, marking an increase of over 18% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to enhance its relationships with major supermarkets like Yonghui and Walmart in 2025, aiming for customized offerings [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 5.47 RMB and 6.05 RMB, respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 EPS forecast of 6.88 RMB [4][6] - The company’s estimated revenue for 2025 is 16.16 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.83% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 103.86 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong earnings resilience in 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 15.13 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.36 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 0.5%, and -0.5% [1] - The company is focusing on internal improvements during the off-season to prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, such as acquiring 70% of Dingwei Thai, to enhance channel synergies [2] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 23.3%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 9.8% [3] - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts but has adjusted profit forecasts upwards due to the contribution from Dingwei Thai and strong expense management capabilities [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 15.13 billion RMB in 2024 to 16.16 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.60 billion RMB in 2025 [6] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 5.47 RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 19x [4][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on the sales of strategic products such as "lock-fresh" packaging, which achieved over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, growing by over 18% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to embrace customization in supermarkets and strengthen partnerships with major retailers like Yonghui and Walmart [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.8% [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on practical adjustments and actively building momentum, with expectations for revenue recovery driven by new products and channels despite external demand pressures [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.127 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.2% for 2025, reaching 16.368 billion yuan. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 5.06 yuan, with projections of 5.19 yuan for 2025, 5.71 yuan for 2026, and 6.39 yuan for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 15, 14, 13, and 12 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The net profit margin was recorded at 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Product and Market Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories showed mixed results in 2024, with the rice and flour segment declining by 3.1%, while frozen prepared foods and dishes grew by 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. The company’s hot pot ingredients experienced significant growth, particularly in vacuum-sealed packaging [6][7]. - The company’s sales channels also demonstrated varied performance, with distribution channels increasing by 8.9%, while supermarkets and e-commerce channels saw declines of 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed a remarkable growth of 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions, with Northeast China growing by 7.0%, North China by 5.4%, East China by 6.4%, South China by 9.1%, Central China by 7.4%, Northwest by 13.5%, and Southwest by 14.4% [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a pragmatic adjustment in its operations and is actively building momentum for future growth. Despite short-term pressures, the strategic optimization and new product launches are expected to gradually improve the company's fundamentals [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and the net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 22.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories in 2024 showed mixed results: - Noodle and rice products decreased by 3.1% - Frozen prepared foods increased by 11.4% - Dishes grew by 10.7% - Agricultural and sideline products fell by 11.7% [6][7]. - In terms of distribution channels, revenue from distributors increased by 8.9%, while supermarkets, direct sales, and e-commerce saw declines of 2.4%, 4.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed significant growth at 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions in 2024, with the following year-on-year increases: - Northeast: +7.0% - North China: +5.4% - East China: +6.4% - South China: +9.1% - Central China: +7.4% - Northwest: +13.5% - Southwest: +14.4% [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.3% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the year was 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 23.3%, but the net profit margin was 11.0%, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year due to increased promotional efforts and a decline in average sales prices [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover growth through new products and channels, despite ongoing external demand pressures. The introduction of high-quality, mid-priced products for B-end customers and premium products for C-end customers is anticipated to drive revenue recovery [6][7]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.19, 5.71, and 6.39 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [6][7].