Policy Overview - On December 17, 2024, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises' listed companies[3] - The guidelines aim to enhance the quality of listed companies, promote healthy capital market development, and standardize market value management practices[3] Market Value Management Strategies - Improving the quality of listed companies is fundamental to enhancing market value management[3] - Mergers and acquisitions that increase investment value are crucial for boosting market capitalization[3] - Strengthening market-oriented reforms and improving information disclosure quality are essential measures for effective market value management[3] Investor Relations and Returns - Enhancing dividend incentives for listed companies is expected to improve investor returns[3] - The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation announced a reduction in dividend distribution fees to 0.5‰ of the total cash distributed, with exemptions for amounts exceeding 1.5 million yuan[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant economic changes, suboptimal policy effects, and delays in policy implementation[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beauty and personal care industry [10]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature in WeChat Mini Store is expected to enhance user shopping habits and create new investment opportunities in the beauty sector [8][10]. - The beauty category aligns well with gifting scenarios, and domestic beauty brands are likely to benefit from the new channel advantages [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - On December 19, WeChat Mini Store began a gray test of the "Gift Giving" feature, applicable to products priced below 10,000 yuan [10]. - The feature aims to meet both social and shopping needs of users, coinciding with several major holidays, which could increase WeChat's penetration in e-commerce [10]. Market Trends - Gifting scenarios have consistently accounted for over 10% of the beauty market share for three consecutive years, with sales growth outpacing the overall beauty market [10]. - During the 2024 Qixi Festival, beauty GMV saw a 100% year-on-year increase, with young users growing by 150% [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands that are well-positioned for the new channel changes, particularly those with high-potential products [8][10]. - Recommended companies include: - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (sensitive to new channel changes) - Juzhibio (leader in collagen products) - Proya (leading domestic beauty brand) - Marubi (leader in eye cream products) - Runben (leader in mosquito repellent and baby skincare) - Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (owns high-end brands) [8][10].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of AI is hybrid AI, where edge AI serves as a complement and extension to cloud AI, offering advantages such as cost reduction, lower network latency, and enhanced privacy and security [12][19][24] - AI modules are becoming the carriers of computing power required for edge AI, with penetration rates expected to rise rapidly. In 2023, the proportion of cellular IoT modules supporting AI functions is 2%, projected to increase to 9% by 2027, with a CAGR of 73% over four years [12][28] - Domestic leading manufacturers are actively laying out edge AI, keeping pace with the trend of AI development. Key players include Quectel, Gree, and Megvii [30][48] Summary by Sections 1. AI Modules Supporting Edge AI Development - Hybrid AI refers to the collaboration between edge and cloud computing, distributing AI workloads to provide better experiences and resource efficiency. Cost savings are a major driving factor for hybrid AI development [24][35] - AI PCs are a significant application area for edge AI, with expected shipments of 13 million units in 2024 and a penetration rate of 7%, increasing to 150 million units and 79% by 2027 [26][38] 2. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Core AI Module Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic module manufacturers: Quectel, Gree, and Megvii, as AI modules possess high computing power that supports the development of edge AI [48][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][12]. Core Insights - The testing and launch of the "Gift" feature in WeChat Mini Stores is expected to meet users' daily needs for gifting, leveraging WeChat's extensive social ecosystem to facilitate rapid penetration into the e-commerce sector [2][12]. - The "Gift" feature is projected to tap into the trillion-yuan gifting market, with estimates suggesting that China's gift economy market size will reach 1.3777 trillion yuan in 2024 and 1.6197 trillion yuan by 2027 [12]. - The report highlights the significant commercialization potential of WeChat's social ecosystem, noting that the user base for WeChat has surpassed 1 billion in 2024, which enhances its ability to penetrate the e-commerce market [12]. - The evolution of the mini-program and video account ecosystems is anticipated to accelerate, with WeChat mini-programs achieving 949 million monthly active users and a quarterly GMV exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10%+ year-on-year growth [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - The "Gift" feature allows users to select gifts directly from product pages, streamlining the gifting process by eliminating cumbersome steps like asking for addresses [12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for WeChat to significantly increase its e-commerce penetration during upcoming holiday seasons, leveraging its vast social network [12]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on opportunities within the WeChat e-commerce supply chain, including service providers and e-commerce companies benefiting from increased traffic through WeChat channels, such as Dongfang Zhenxuan and Pop Mart [2][12]. - Attention is also drawn to the trends in AI model productization by Tencent and ByteDance, which could create additional opportunities within the industry [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Carbon/carbon composites are the only materials that maintain structural strength above 3000℃, making them essential for aerospace applications [10][42] - The unique characteristics of carbon/carbon composites include high-temperature resistance and improved strength with increasing temperature, which is critical for military applications such as missile nose cones and engine components [10][12] - The competitive landscape for carbon/carbon composites is concentrated among private enterprises in the upstream sector, while the downstream applications are more fragmented, primarily involving state-owned enterprises [72][97] Summary by Sections Development History of Carbon-Based Composites - The evolution of carbon-based composites in flight vehicle thermal protection systems includes four stages: oxidation-resistant carbon-based composites, oxidation-resistant carbon/carbon composites, coated modified carbon/carbon composites, and heat-reducing carbon-based composites [7][41] Typical Application Scenarios - Carbon/carbon composites are widely used in military applications, including missile nose cones, engine nozzle linings, and aircraft brake pads, where high working temperatures and short operational times are common [10][23][25] - The performance of carbon/carbon brake pads is significantly superior to that of metal materials, with a lifespan increase of 5 to 7 times compared to powder metallurgy brake pads [23][47] Comparison with Other Materials - Compared to quartz and ceramic-based materials, carbon/carbon composites are more suitable for high-temperature applications, while quartz fibers are better suited for radar domes due to their lower dielectric constant and better wave transparency [62][80] - Ceramic matrix composites outperform nickel-based superalloys in high-temperature stability, making them suitable for engine components that operate above 1000℃ [64][91] Industry Chain and Key Companies - The carbon/carbon composite industry chain is characterized by a concentrated upstream sector focused on raw materials, while the downstream applications are more dispersed among various state-owned enterprises [72][97] - Key companies in the military carbon/carbon composite industry include Jiangsu Tianniao, which has a favorable competitive position in the production of special preforms [72][97]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the industry [25] Core Viewpoints - Battery life is a critical pain point for consumer electronics, and AI glasses currently have significantly shorter battery life compared to smartphones and TWS earbuds [2] - AI glasses need to improve battery life to enhance user experience and drive market adoption [24] - The report discusses potential upgrade paths for AI glasses, focusing on increasing battery capacity or reducing power consumption [9] Key Findings by Section Battery Life as a Key Factor for AI Glasses Adoption - Battery life is a crucial factor for the mass adoption of AI glasses, with current models like Ray Ban Meta offering only 4 hours of battery life under moderate use [14] - Smartphones, such as the iPhone 16 Pro and Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra, offer significantly longer battery life, ranging from 22 to 95 hours depending on usage [14] - AI glasses rely on a small battery embedded in the frame, with Ray Ban Meta using a 154mAh battery, which limits their operational time [15] Strategies to Improve Battery Life - Increasing battery capacity or reducing power consumption are the two main strategies to improve AI glasses' battery life [20] - Increasing battery capacity can be achieved by either enlarging the battery size or adopting new battery technologies like silicon-carbon anode or solid-state batteries [26] - Reducing power consumption could involve developing specialized SoCs for AI glasses, which could lower both power usage and costs [26] Market Opportunities and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in new battery technologies and SoC development for AI glasses, such as Xinwangda and GigaDevice [26] - The adoption of new battery technologies could help increase battery capacity without adding significant weight, which is crucial for user comfort [44] - Specialized SoCs for AI glasses could reduce power consumption and costs, potentially giving early adopters a market advantage [71] Comparison with Other Consumer Electronics - TWS earbuds, such as Apple AirPods Pro 2, have already addressed battery life concerns, offering up to 30 hours of listening time with the charging case [65] - AI glasses could follow a similar design approach, offloading some computational tasks to connected devices like smartphones or laptops to improve battery life [41] Future Outlook - The report suggests that AI glasses are still in the early stages of development and need continuous iteration to meet user expectations [48] - The introduction of AR features and other advanced functionalities could further increase the weight and power demands of AI glasses, necessitating innovative solutions [61]

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in December, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.5%[8] - This marks the third rate cut of the year, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points[47] - There was one dissenting vote against the rate cut, with Beth M. Hammack advocating for a pause instead[28] Economic Outlook - The Fed's dot plot indicates that only 2 rate cuts are expected in 2025, a decrease from previous expectations of 4 to 5 cuts[12] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2024 was revised up from 2% to 2.5%, while the unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.2%[13] - Inflation expectations were slightly adjusted upward, with the policy rate forecast for 2025 raised from 3.4% to 3.9%[13] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets declined, with the Nasdaq dropping 3.56%, the S&P 500 down 2.95%, and the Dow Jones falling 2.58%[58] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) increased, while gold prices fell[59] Liquidity and Balance Sheet - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $25 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBS, with a total reduction of approximately $1.9047 trillion as of November 2024[13] - The current size of the Fed's securities holdings is about $6.6 trillion[13] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overheating of the U.S. economy and geopolitical uncertainties that could exceed expectations[13]

Economic Outlook - In the second half of 2024, positive policy changes are expected, leading to improved market liquidity and increased risk appetite, resulting in a rapid rebound in the A-share market[2] - The transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven market performance in 2025 will likely determine the overall market performance next year[2] - Economic recovery is expected to be more certain in the first half of 2024, with gradual improvement in corporate earnings, leading to relatively strong market performance[2] Risks and Challenges - Accumulation of overseas risk factors in the second half of 2024, such as re-inflation and increased tariffs, may impact the domestic market[2] - Major geopolitical changes could lead to a sharp shift in global market risk appetite[32] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations could affect market dynamics[32] Investment Strategy - A balanced allocation strategy focusing on "small-cap style" and "dividend assets" is recommended for better cost-effectiveness[2] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, reducing its drag on the economy, with property price declines nearing average levels seen after overseas real estate crises[15] - Capital market liquidity is anticipated to remain ample, with M1 growth showing signs of improvement, supporting economic and market activity[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the risks in the liquor sector are gradually being released, with the potential for operational recovery in the food and beverage industry by 2025 [5][8]. - The white liquor sector is expected to see a bottoming out of fundamentals in 2024, with a decline in active fund positions, while the investment value of the sector is increasing from a dividend yield perspective [5][8]. - The mass consumer goods sector is experiencing weak demand in 2024, but the decline in raw material costs is greater than expected, leading to profit recovery for key companies [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Beverages - The white liquor sector is expected to see a gradual release of risks, with the investment value becoming more apparent [5][8]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 9.18% as of December 10, 2024, while the overall food and beverage index has decreased by 5.00% [22][5]. - The report highlights that the demand-driven growth of the white liquor industry is shifting towards supply-side dynamics, with significant room for concentration improvement [5][8]. 2. Mass Consumer Goods - The report anticipates that the mass consumer goods sector will see profit recovery in 2024, with a potential revenue turning point in 2025 [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the decline in raw material costs is expected to continue, which will alleviate cost pressures for companies in the sector [5][8]. - The report suggests that the recovery of mass consumer goods companies will be driven by the implementation of consumption stimulus policies [5][8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively positioning in core domestic assets, particularly in the white liquor sector, where the cycle is nearing a turning point [5][8]. - It suggests focusing on high-quality stocks related to mass dining, as the sector is expected to recover due to various stimulus measures [5][8]. - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring high-growth segments in the beverage industry, particularly those related to health and wellness [5][8].

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 生产保持韧性，需求有所分化——11 月经济数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年12月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 12 月 16 日，国家统计局公布 11 月经济数据。11 月需求端表现有所分化，但不乏亮点。季节 性调整后，社零受"双十一"预售前置等因素影响环比下行，固定资产投资基本保持平稳，其 中不含电力的狭义基建投资环比回落，但制造业投资保持扩张，地产销售也继续边际改善。生 产端表现出较强韧性，工业增加值保持环比正增长，发电量也有所回升。中期而言，在逆周期 调节持续加力提速的背景下，我们认为中国经济有望在新旧动能转换、中国经济新周期开启 以及政策加力的共同支持下，重新回到复苏轨道（GDP 当季环比超过 1.2%-1.3%）。 |分析师及联系人 方诗超 王博群 SAC：S0590523030001 SAC：S0590524010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 17 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年12月18日 数据点评 宏观点评 生产保持韧性，需求有所分化——11 月经济 相关报告 1、《 ...