证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|家用电器 新国标正式发布，两轮车需求弹性可期 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月14日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年两轮车行业需求弹性可观，出货有望持续实现较优增长，主要在于：1）新国标正式稿 已发布，考虑到消费者更喜欢的旧标准车辆可销售至 11 月底，行业需求有望充分释放；2） 随着"以旧换新政策"在 2025 年初顺利延续，单车补贴力度不低背景下，对行业需求的提振 效果可期；3）2024Q3 渠道去库存后，产业渠道库存持续处于历史低位，后续有望逐步回升至 常态。此外，2025 年四季度起新国标在生产端的要求正式实施，将加速出清不符合生产标准 的企业。综上，2025 年两轮车板块龙头均有望实现优质的经营增长，积极看好板块投资机会。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 管泉森 高登 崔甜甜 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523110009 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月14日 家用电器 新国标正式发 ...

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [7] - Current Price: 42.55 Yuan [7] Group 2 - The company is accelerating its globalization process by establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Germany, investing 36 million Euros in Munich to set up Xinquan (Europe) Co., Ltd., and an additional 30 million Euros in Bavaria for Xinquan (Bavaria) Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. [5][12] - This overseas expansion is expected to enhance product quality and responsiveness, further expanding the customer base among high-end foreign brands in Bavaria [5][12] Group 3 - The company reported a record high revenue of 3.44 billion Yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million Yuan, up 48.0% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter [12] - Key customers such as Geely, Chery, Li Auto, and BYD have shown significant sales growth, with respective sales of 2.177 million, 2.604 million, 501 thousand, and 4.25 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 38.4%, 33.1%, and 41.3% [12] Group 4 - The company is a leading manufacturer of interior components, with ongoing global expansion and diversification strategies. Recent developments include establishing a joint venture in Malaysia and improving profitability in Mexico, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 325 million Yuan [13] - The company aims to expand its product range beyond dashboards and door panels to include seat back panels and exterior components [13] Group 5 - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 132.1 billion Yuan, 172.0 billion Yuan, and 208.5 billion Yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.0%, 30.2%, and 21.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.2 billion Yuan, 14.0 billion Yuan, and 18.7 billion Yuan, with growth rates of 26.7%, 37.2%, and 33.7% respectively [14] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 32.4% from 2023 to 2026 [14]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|专业服务 顺周期复苏，聚焦高景气度领域反弹机 会--检测服务行业 2025 年度投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年在地方政府财政压力、部分下游行业需求偏弱的背景下，多数检测服务龙头营收增速 放缓，行业处于阶段性低谷。国内检测行业估值回落历史低位，或已充分反映对当前的预期。 2025 年随着经济政策逐渐出台和各公司业绩增速的逐季改善，行业有望迎来触底反弹的机会。 2024 年中央经济工作会议召开，会议强调实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求。随 着宏观环境逐渐好转，2025 年行业有望迎来供需改善，行业估值也有望逐步恢复合理区间， 军工芯片等自主可控领域检测需求有望率先回暖，建议关注相关领域检测个股。 |分析师及联系人 田伊依 SAC：S0590524070001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 14 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月06日 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，SW 检测服务整体 PE（TTM）为 28.46 倍， ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|建筑材料 政策或改善需求，重视供给侧变化 ——建材建筑 2025 年度投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 地产链材料板块，近期水泥错峰生产执行力度加强支撑价格改善，同时应重视行业供给方面 重要政策推出及效果，重视水泥龙头；非地产链重视玻纤/药包材等，关注细分领域景气上行 机会、关注药包材模制瓶龙头如山东药玻等。建筑板块，我们认为地方政府化债力度加大或有 利于改善企业回款及资产质量，建议关注：1）估值低、较好分红且更受益化债政策的央企， 如中国建筑/中国交建等；2）积极转型变革及海外市场持续突破的企业如中材国际/中钢国际 /中国化学/北方国际等。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 43 武慧东 朱思敏 吴红艳 SAC：S0590523080005 SAC：S0590524050002 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月06日 建筑材料 政策或改善需求，重视供给侧变化 ——建材建筑 2025 年度投资策略 2024 年 9 月以来政策基调有 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|医药生物 增量看空间，存量看结构 ——医药生物行业 2025 年投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 近年来医药指数回撤较多，产业端和投资端均面临一定的压力，人口结构性老龄化背景下医 保收支不平衡压力是医改需要考虑的因素，医药产业进入后集采时代的新常态。存量看结构， 增量看空间，医药板块的长期投资要把握医改背景下产业链利益再分配的存量结构性机会和 老龄化和出海带来的增量机会，未来 1 年维度建议重视创新药出海和左侧资产估值修复的潜 在机会。 |分析师及联系人 郑薇 付鹏飞 SAC：S0590521070002 SAC：S0590524110003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 70 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月06日 医药生物 增量看空间，存量看结构 ——医药生物行业 2025 年投资策略 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -10% 10% 30% 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 2025/1 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 2024 年 12 月销量点评：年度 交付破 50 万辆，AI 助力下一阶段成长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月06日 基本数据 | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 1,992/1,992 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 191,312.02 | | 每股净资产(元) | 31.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 58.71 | | 一年内最高/最低(港元) | 182.90/68.65 | 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年 1 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 12 月及全年交付数据。2024 年 12 月，理想汽车交 付 58,513 辆，同比增长 16.2%。2024 年累计交付 500,508 辆。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营 业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿元，同比增速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别 为 85.3/142.4/237.3 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 -27.1%/6 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|有色金属 供给受约束，看多顺周期 ——有色金属行业 2025 年度投资策略 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年01月02日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 展望 2025 年，随着美联储进入降息周期、全球流动性有望改善；国内一系列增量政策持 续显效，经济保持回升向好态势。海内外需求有望迎来共振，有色金属长牛趋势持续； 我们持续看好板块的投资机会，维持有色金属行业"强于大市"评级。推荐标的方面： 1）工业金属：铝板块推荐中国铝业、中国宏桥、云铝股份、神火股份；铜板块推荐紫金 矿业、洛阳钼业、江西铜业、五矿资源、金诚信、铜陵有色；2）贵金属：黄金板块推荐 中金黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际等，白银板块推荐兴业银锡。 |分析师及联系人 丁士涛 刘依然 SAC：S0590523090001 SAC：S0590523110010 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 40 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年01月02日 有色金属 供给受约束，看多顺周期 ——有色金属行业 2025 年度投资策略 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议 ...

Market Overview - Historical data indicates that January market performance before the Spring Festival tends to be weak, with low return expectations and significant downside risks in certain years[4] - The market has not shown a clear upward trend in December 2024, suggesting a potential continuation of volatility into January 2025[7] Investment Strategy - The primary strategy for January 2025 should focus on volatility control, with an emphasis on low-volatility absolute return strategies if a single style is adopted[4] - For a multi-style approach, combining dividend stocks with cyclical and quality styles offers a better cost-performance ratio[4] Risk Factors - Key risks include significant geopolitical changes affecting global market risk appetite, less than expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, unexpected changes in market liquidity, and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[8] Performance Insights - From 2010 to 2024, the overall market has shown considerable volatility, with only a few years (2012, 2013, 2019, and 2023) demonstrating stable upward trends[19] - The average return for the low-volatility strategy across various years has been positive, successfully controlling volatility in most cases[32] Style and Sector Analysis - The current market sentiment is shifting towards value stocks, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices[50] - Recent performance shows that banks and consumer electronics have positive returns, while sectors like media and social services lag behind[50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - As of November 2024, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.8 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, indicating a recovery phase in sow production capacity [8][34] - The report anticipates that after the Spring Festival, pork prices may face downward pressure due to potential oversupply during the consumption off-season in 2025 [8][34] - Recommended companies include leading breeding enterprises with cost advantages such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [8][34] Summary by Sections 1. November Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory showed a continuous increase in November, with a total of 40.8 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 0.2% [16][34] - The number of newborn piglets from August to October 2024 decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year, but remains at a relatively high level historically [8][34] 2. Future Pork Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - The report predicts that pork prices will be under pressure in 2025 due to an increase in breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [29][50] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue a stable and slight increase, supported by optimistic market expectations and declining feed costs [51][53] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-cost pig farming enterprises, highlighting that pork prices peaked in August 2024 at over 21 CNY/kg and have since declined to 15.42 CNY/kg by December 26, 2024 [54] - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability in pig farming leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by seasonal demand [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [18]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to experience high-quality development supported by strict regulations, with improvements in liability costs and underwriting profitability for property insurance companies [14][54]. - The insurance sector has shown significant absolute and relative returns, with the insurance index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 28.7% as of December 24, 2024 [7][14]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for both life and property insurance sectors, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [14][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Strong Performance in Stock Prices and Earnings - The insurance index has risen by 44.8% compared to a 16.1% increase in the CSI 300 index, driven by improved asset conditions and better-than-expected earnings [7][25]. - Notable stock price increases for major insurers include New China Life (+70.9%), China Pacific Insurance (+47.7%), and China Life (+52.6%) [9][30]. 2. Life Insurance: "Stable Volume and Quality Improvement" Expected to Support NBV Growth - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance companies has shown strong growth, with notable increases in NBV margins due to product structure optimization and lower preset interest rates [11][54]. - The demand for savings-type insurance products remains strong, benefiting new business sales [55]. 3. Property Insurance: Leading Companies Expected to Improve Underwriting Profitability - The combined ratio (COR) for major property insurers remains below 100%, indicating profitability, with notable performance from Ping An Insurance and PICC [48][49]. - Regulatory tightening and increased disaster losses are expected to improve the competitive landscape for leading insurers [14][54]. 4. Investment: Importance of Asset and Liability Matching - The report emphasizes the need for insurance companies to enhance asset-liability matching, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [19][21]. - Insurers are expected to increase allocations to bonds and high-dividend stocks to stabilize investment returns [21][54]. 5. Investment Recommendations: Maintain "Outperform" Rating for the Insurance Industry - The report suggests that the insurance sector's valuation remains at historically low levels, indicating potential for upward correction [14][54]. - Key stock recommendations include New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, based on their respective strengths in asset flexibility and liability management [54].