Labor Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market, with potential faster rate cuts if the labor market cools too quickly[2][9] - The US labor market has experienced significant supply shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and increased immigration, impacting labor force participation and population growth[10][98] - Unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls exhibit cyclical patterns, with the current unemployment rate at 4.1%, below the natural rate of 4.4%[11][123] Unemployment and Economic Indicators - The Sahm Rule, which historically signals recessions when triggered, was activated in July but the US economy has not yet entered a recession[12][132] - Non-farm payroll revisions turning negative typically precede recessions, but the current cycle shows no recession despite negative revisions[13][170] - The divergence between employer and household surveys has widened, with the household survey indicating a weaker labor market[13][186] Labor Supply and Demographics - The US labor force is increasingly reliant on foreign-born population growth, which has outpaced native-born population growth in recent years[109][112] - COVID-19 caused a significant decline in the working-age population, with a net loss of 280,000 in 2021 and only a 40,000 increase in 2022[102][104] - Labor force participation rates have declined, particularly among older age groups, contributing to a shrinking effective labor supply[54][67] Economic Resilience and Risks - The labor market's resilience may help the Federal Reserve achieve a "soft landing," avoiding a recession despite tightening monetary policy[2][170] - Risks include a sudden economic downturn due to high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to rapid rate cuts[207]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 Q3 财务数据点评：毛利率改 善，盈亏平衡有望兑现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 19 日，小鹏汽车发布第三季度财务数据。小鹏汽车 2024Q3 交付 4.7 万辆，同比 增长 16.3%。对应实现总收入 101.0 亿元，同比+18.4%，环比+24.5%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026 年销量分别为 19/42/64 万辆，对应营业收入分别为 434.0/922.9/1382.8 亿 元，同比分别增长 41.5%/112.6%/49.8%；归母净利润分别为-65.1/7.0/34.2 亿元。优质车型 上市有望迎来销量拐点，智能驾驶迭代催化和车型上市节奏有望助力公司实现财务数据的反 转，大众合作或进一步扩大公司营收和技术能力。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月20日 小鹏汽 ...

证券研究报告 策略研究|点评报告 调整期间，哪些方向更具性价比？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 市场处于牛市的阶段调整期，短期内或继续震荡，但中期季度级别依旧积极。我们认为下一阶 段行情，大概率需要依赖大盘权重股的上位，托高整体情绪和估值预期。然后再演绎小盘股的 弹性舞台。这种情况，需要进一步的增量政策交易，或者是基本面数据的上修。12 月或是重 要窗口期。结合基本面、估值、情绪热度筛选出"六低一高"有望底部反转的滞涨行业，如周 期板块中的农药、钾肥、纺织化学制品；制造板块中的电网自动化设备、光伏电池组件等；消 费板块中的肉制品、乳品等；TMT 板块中的出版、影视动漫制作等。 |分析师及联系人 包承超 邓宇林 周长民 SAC：S0590523100005 SAC：S0590523100008 SAC：S0590524030003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 25 策略研究|点评报告 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月20日 调整期间，哪些方向更具性价比？ 相关报告 1、《后续市场的线索梳理》2024.11.13 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|房地产 政策效果显现，10 月销售边际改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月19日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 1-10 月，全国累计商品房销售面积 77930 万平方米，同比下降 15.8%；销售金额 76855 亿元，同比下降 20.9%。房地产开发投资 86309 亿元，同比下降 10.3%；新开工面积 61227 万 平方米，同比下降 22.6%；竣工面积 41995 万平方米，同比下降 23.9%。到位资金 87235 亿元， 同比下降 19.2%，销售回款边际改善，定金及预收款和按揭贷款降幅均环比收窄 2.1 个百分 点。政策利好频出，市场信心得到提振。建议关注布局核心城市、主打改善性产品的央国企， 以及受益于二手房市场活跃的中介平台。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 姜好幸 方鹏 刘汪 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524070008 SAC：S0590524100003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company specializes in transformers and other power transmission and distribution equipment, leading in market share in domestic renewable energy box transformers. It leverages strong channel advantages from the Mingyang Group to deeply engage in high-value scenarios such as offshore wind and solar power, possessing technological and project performance advantages. The ongoing shortage of transformers overseas presents growth opportunities as the company binds with top clients for indirect overseas expansion and actively develops direct sales channels abroad, benefiting from global renewable energy installation growth and transformer shortages [3][12][16] Summary by Sections Company Fundamentals - The company is a subsidiary of Mingyang Group, focusing on power transmission and control equipment. It is a leading supplier in the domestic market for renewable energy box transformers and has developed photovoltaic integrated products used in over 40 countries, including Southeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North America [29] - The company’s main products include box-type substations, complete switchgear, and transformers, with a focus on renewable energy and new infrastructure applications. The product range is comprehensive, covering dry and oil-immersed transformers, medium and low-voltage switchgear, and various types of box-type substations [36][40] Industry Analysis - The demand for renewable energy transformers is expected to continue improving. In the first seven months of 2024, domestic land wind turbine bidding reached 68.7 GW, a year-on-year increase of 126%, while offshore wind and EPC bidding grew by 25% [62] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a resurgence, with domestic installations in the first nine months of 2024 reaching 160.88 GW, a 24.8% year-on-year increase. The long-term growth outlook remains positive due to declining costs and supportive policies [62][66] - The global demand for large-scale energy storage is anticipated to flourish, driven by the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar [68] Company Advantages - The company has a clear advantage in offshore scenarios, where transformer value is higher and technical barriers are greater. Its products meet international advanced standards in key performance indicators and have achieved domestic substitution. The company is rapidly expanding its overseas market presence, securing new orders and breakthroughs in international markets [12][19] - The company’s revenue and profit have been growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 43.8% for revenue and 40.9% for net profit from 2020 to 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, it achieved revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.52%, and a net profit of 436 million yuan, up 37.56% [49][50] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Advice - The company is expected to generate revenues of 6.238 billion yuan, 7.923 billion yuan, and 9.125 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.06%, 27.02%, and 15.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 646 million yuan, 868 million yuan, and 1.034 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 29.77%, 34.43%, and 19.07% [18][19]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 内销大幅提速，出口继续新高 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月19日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 10 月家用空调内销出货大幅提速，较超预期，新冷年步入提货高峰，渠道去库结束，动销景 气上扬，补库弹性可期。年内龙头价格策略温和，政策提振下 9 月以来行业均价趋势向上， 龙头高端及线下优势突出，短期政策利好，格局或难有质变。2024 年政策强化更新周期，白 电龙头 Q3 报表质量优异，经营势能强劲，海外 OBM 持续突破，外销订单/排产表现积极。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 蔡奕娴 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月19日 家用电器 产业在线 10 月空调数据简评： 内销大幅提速，出口继续新高 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 202 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|房地产 上海率先落地税收优惠，促进改善需求 释放 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 11 月 18 日，上海四部门联合发布《关于取消普通住房标准有关事项的通知》，主要包括：1） 契税：住房面积标准由 90 ㎡提升至 140 ㎡；二套房契税税率 140 ㎡及以下由 3%降至 1%，140 ㎡以上由 3%降至 2%；2）增值税：出售个人购买 2 年及以上的原非普通住宅，免征增值税。 3）个人所得税：不再区分普通与非普通住宅，统一以转让收入的 1%核定应纳个人所得税额。 建议关注重点布局一线及核心二线城市，主打改善性产品，具备持续拿地能力的房企，如绿城 中国、建发国际集团、滨江集团等；关注房产中介平台，如我爱我家等。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 方鹏 姜好幸 刘汪 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524100003 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月18日 房地产 上海率 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|家用电器 当"双 11"遇见"以旧换新"， 内销景气突出 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月18日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 本轮双 11 大促期间家电表现较亮眼，传统品类量价齐升，新品类迎增长良机。后续来看，以 旧换新政策带动下，内销已迎来增速换挡时刻，且后续补贴范畴及规模均有望扩大，行业更新 需求释放潜力仍值得期待。"价格带+渠道"布局优势加持下，政策受益品类中龙头经营有望更 加受益。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 莫云皓 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523120001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the communication industry, specifically focusing on the AI-driven demand for all-optical switches [7] Core Viewpoints - The transition from OEO (Optical-Electrical-Optical) to OOO (Optical-Optical-Optical) all-optical switches is driven by AI training demands, aiming to build flexible and cost-effective data center networks to meet growing traffic needs [2][18] - Companies like NVIDIA and Google are actively investing in all-optical switching technologies, with Google deploying OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) in its data center networks [23][31] - OXC (Optical Cross Connect) technology is expected to accelerate the adoption of all-optical switches, offering higher integration and efficiency compared to traditional ROADM systems [40][43] - Huawei, Accelink, and Coherent are leading the development of OXC-based all-optical switches, with commercial deployment expected by 2025 [49][52] Key Companies and Technologies - **NVIDIA**: NVIDIA's VP Simona Jankowski joined Lightmatter, a startup focusing on photonic interconnects, which raised $400 million in a recent funding round [23] - **Google**: Google has been a pioneer in deploying OCS switches in its data center networks, reducing the need for OEO conversions and improving efficiency [31][34] - **Huawei**: Huawei introduced the OptiXtrans DC808, a 256x256 non-blocking all-optical switch, expected to be commercially available by 2025 [49] - **Accelink**: Accelink launched its MEMS-based OCS product, supporting up to 400x400 ports, with features like rapid switching and integrated diagnostics [49] - **Coherent**: Coherent showcased a 300x300 port optical switch based on DLX technology, optimized for AI data centers, with mass production expected in 2025 [52] Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic OXC switch industry opportunities, particularly companies like Accelink, FiberHome, and DecaWave, which have already released OXC products [61][62] - Pay attention to domestic AWG suppliers like SICC Photonics, which are crucial for reducing optical paths in all-optical switch scenarios [62] - Monitor FAU (Fiber Array Unit) manufacturers like Tianfu Communication, which play a key role in all-optical switch applications [63]

Industry Overview - 0BB (No Busbar) is an upgrade of SMBB (Super-Multiple Busbar) technology, and stacked grid can be considered as an even more advanced version of 0BB [2][6] - Stacked grid technology replaces "sub-grid + main grid" with "seed layer + conductive wire," reducing silver paste usage by 75% and potentially eliminating silver entirely in the future [2][6] - The triangular conductive wire in stacked grid technology has ultra-high surface reflectivity, achieving a shading rate of less than 1%, which increases module power compared to TOPCon SMBB [2][6] Technological Advantages - Stacked grid technology reduces costs by eliminating the need for horizontal current conduction, allowing for the use of cheaper copper instead of silver [18][22] - The triangular conductive wire's high reflectivity reduces shading loss to less than 1%, significantly improving module efficiency [23][26] - Compared to TOPCon SMBB, stacked grid technology can increase module power by 25-30W [26] Challenges and Progress - The alignment of conductive wires with the seed layer is a major challenge, affecting the yield rate of stacked grid technology [35][36] - Stacked grid technology is still in the yield improvement phase, while 0BB has already achieved mature mass production [6][61] - In 2024, Tongwei, Jingsheng, and Shichuang formed a strategic partnership to promote the development and mass production of stacked grid technology [63] Cost Analysis - In the small-scale production phase, stacked grid technology saves approximately 6 cents/W compared to SMBB and 3.8 cents/W compared to 0BB [6] - In the large-scale production phase, stacked grid technology saves approximately 12 cents/W compared to SMBB and 8.7 cents/W compared to 0BB [6] - The cost advantage of stacked grid technology is more significant than that of 0BB, but yield improvement remains a key factor [61] Investment Recommendations - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [6] - Key companies to watch include Shichuang Energy and Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, which are leading the development of stacked grid technology [6][72] - Shichuang Energy has developed a unique triangular conductive wire and holds patents for stacked grid technology, while Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical is responsible for developing the equipment for mass production [72]