钢铁周报 20250420 关税交易或已结束，期待国内宏观政策对冲 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格下跌。截至 4 月 18 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3130 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3330 元/吨， 较上周降 60 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3240 元/吨，较上周降 90 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3790 元/吨，较上周降 100 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3470 元/吨，较上周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有跌，进口矿 市场价格震荡，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-17 元/吨，-45 元/吨和-107 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢利润下降。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 4 月 18 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 873 万吨，环比升 1.65 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 0.37 万吨，板材产量周环比升 2.02 万吨，螺纹钢本周减产 3. ...

➢ 事件：公司于 4 月 17 日发布 2024 年年报，24 年实现营收 28.04 亿元，同 增 3.33%；实现归母净利润 0.44 亿元，同减 69.26%；扣非归母净利润 0.76 亿 元，同减 45.78%。单季度看，公司 24Q4 实现营收 6.49 亿元，同增 2.76%； 实现归母净利润 0.21 亿元，扣非归母净利润 0.02 亿元，较去年同期扭亏为盈。 ➢ 疆外扩张稳步推进，低温板块稳健增长。24 年乳制品行业市场消费需求延 续放缓趋势，公司实现乳制品销量 29.43 万吨，较上年同期增长 3.43%。分产品 看，24 年公司常温乳制品实现收入 14.99 亿元，同比-2.03%，占比 55.03%， 需求表现相对疲软；低温乳制品 11.18 亿元，同比+3.47%，占比 41.04%，桶酸 等产品凸显韧性；畜牧业板块公牛及外销生鲜乳销量同比大幅增加，实现收入 0.92 亿元，同比+14.32%，占比 3.37%。24 年末公司牛只存栏 6.48 万头，平 均成母牛年单产 10.66 吨。分渠道看，24 年公司疆内市场实现收入 13.59 亿元， 同比-6.31%，占比 49.90%；疆 ...

➢ 风险提示：上游奶源供应风险；资产损益持续增加；疆外竞争加剧；食品安 全问题等。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,804 | 3,029 | 3,291 | 3,561 | | 增长率（%） | 3.3 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 44 | 150 | 215 | 242 | | 增长率（%） | -69.3 | 244.6 | 42.7 | 12.6 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.75 | | PE | 81 | 24 | 17 | 15 | | PB | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测；（注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 18 日收盘价） 天润乳业（600419.SH）2024 年年报点评 扩张节奏稳健，静待盈利弹性释放 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ ...

钢铁周报 20250420 关税交易或已结束，期待国内宏观政策对冲 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格下跌。截至 4 月 18 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3130 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3330 元/吨， 较上周降 60 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3240 元/吨，较上周降 90 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3790 元/吨，较上周降 100 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3470 元/吨，较上周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有跌，进口矿 市场价格震荡，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-17 元/吨，-45 元/吨和-107 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢利润下降。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 4 月 18 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 873 万吨，环比升 1.65 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 0.37 万吨，板材产量周环比升 2.02 万吨，螺纹钢本周减产 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown continuous performance exceeding expectations, with significant growth in communication products. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, up 65.74% [1] - The demand for high-speed products is significantly benefiting from the development of AI, with the company’s high-speed communication connector products being upgraded to meet increasing market needs [1][2] - The company is optimizing its product matrix in the new energy vehicle sector and deepening cooperation with major clients, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s communication connector business generated revenue of 597 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.63%, with a gross margin of 31.71% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 379 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.25%, and a net profit of approximately 52.9 million yuan, up 190.12% [1] Business Segments - The new energy vehicle connector segment achieved revenue of 266 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.21%, with a gross margin of 23.50% [1] - The precision mold segment generated revenue of 56.31 million yuan, up 41.75% year-on-year, while mold parts revenue reached 16.99 million yuan, an increase of 31.75% [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.471 billion yuan, 1.962 billion yuan, and 2.482 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 223 million yuan, 297 million yuan, and 369 million yuan [2][3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26, 19, and 16, respectively, indicating a favorable growth outlook [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [5]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, with a net profit of 630 million yuan, up 5.1% year-over-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit, down 35.4% and 34.8% respectively [3][5]. - The company has shown consistent improvement in profit margins over the past six years, with a gross margin of 36.1% and a net margin of 18.6% in 2024, both historical highs [3][5]. - The defense radar segment performed well, generating 2.0 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 18.9% year-over-year, while the radar and related systems segment saw a revenue increase of 20% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 34.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 6.3 billion yuan. The fourth quarter of 2024 alone generated 14.2 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 22.3% increase year-over-year [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, down 35.4% year-over-year, with a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan, down 34.8% [3]. Segment Performance - Radar equipment and related systems generated 26.7 billion yuan in revenue, up 20.0% year-over-year, although the gross margin decreased by 1.39 percentage points to 37.6% [4]. - The industrial software and smart manufacturing segment reported a revenue of 4.0 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.8% [4]. - The smart rail segment saw a revenue decline of 48.9% to 2.8 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 8.34 percentage points to 19.3% [4]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.5% in 2024, with a reduction in sales and management expenses [5]. - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, accounts receivable increased by 23.7% to 4.39 billion yuan, while inventory decreased by 8.0% to 1.94 billion yuan [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 770 million yuan, 930 million yuan, and 1.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 30x, 25x, and 21x [5][7].

➢ 收入持续大幅提升，存货等关键指标验证 AI 芯片业务高景气度延续。1）收 入持续高增：2024 年公司云端产品线业务收入 11.66 亿元，同比增加 1187.78%。 2024 年公司持续拓展市场，积极助力人工智能应用落地，使得报告期内云端产 品线收入较上年同期大幅增长。2025 年一季度公司持续拓展市场，积极助力人 工智能应用落地，收入较上年同期大幅增长。2）存货及预付账款端：公司 2025 年一季度末存货 27.55 亿元，较 2024 年年末的 17.74 亿元大幅提升；2025 年 一季度末预付账款 9.73 亿元，较 2024 年年末的 7.74 亿元同样大幅提升。2024 年底公司存货 17.74 亿元，2023 年年底约为 1 亿元；2024 年末预付账款 7.74 亿元，2023 年底约为 1.48 亿元。存货、预付账款持续大幅增加，验证公司需求 端景气度以及自身供应链韧性，AI 芯片业务高景气度有望延续。 ➢ 多个细分领域取得重要突破，持续投入研发保持自身核心竞争力。1）多个 细分领域市场突破：在互联网及运营商领域，公司的产品的性能和稳定性获得了 客户的广泛认可；在金融领域，公司不仅为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, benefiting from global grid construction demand and the continuous release of new products and markets [4][6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.458 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.049 billion yuan, up 31.42% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with new contract orders for 2025 projected at 26.8 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-over-year, and revenue expected to reach 18.5 billion yuan, also a 20% increase [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its product lineup, with significant revenue growth from subsidiaries, including 5.071 billion yuan from high-voltage switches, a 21.05% increase, and 1.267 billion yuan from high-voltage transformers, a 26.6% increase [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 5.051 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 558 million yuan, up 35.73% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.458 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.049 billion yuan, and projections for 2025 include revenues of 18.579 billion yuan and net profits of 2.506 billion yuan [5][10]. Order and Revenue Guidance - The company exceeded its 2024 target of 15 billion yuan in revenue, achieving 15.458 billion yuan, and plans to achieve 18.5 billion yuan in 2025 [2][4]. - The order backlog remains strong, with 214.57 billion yuan in new orders for 2024, reflecting a 29.94% increase year-over-year [2][4]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has made significant strides in new product development, with notable revenue contributions from various subsidiaries, including high-voltage electrical equipment and supercapacitors [3][4]. - The overseas market has shown impressive growth, with revenue reaching 3.122 billion yuan in 2024, a 44.67% increase year-over-year, contributing to 20% of total revenue [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, benefiting from global grid construction demand and the continuous release of new products and markets [4][6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.458 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.049 billion yuan, up 31.42% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with new contract orders for 2025 projected at 26.8 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-over-year, and revenue expected to reach 18.5 billion yuan, also a 20% increase year-over-year [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its product lineup, with significant revenue growth from subsidiaries, including 5.071 billion yuan from high-voltage switches, a 21.05% increase, and 1.267 billion yuan from high-voltage transformers, a 26.6% increase [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 5.051 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 558 million yuan, up 35.73% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.458 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.049 billion yuan, and projections for 2025 include revenues of 18.579 billion yuan and net profits of 2.506 billion yuan [5][10]. Order and Revenue Guidance - The company exceeded its 2024 target of 15 billion yuan in revenue, achieving 15.458 billion yuan, and plans to achieve 18.5 billion yuan in 2025 [2][4]. - The order backlog remains strong, with 214.57 billion yuan in new orders for 2024, a 29.94% increase year-over-year, and a target of 26.8 billion yuan for 2025 [2][4]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has made significant progress in new product development, with notable revenue contributions from various subsidiaries, including high-voltage electrical equipment and supercapacitors [3][4]. - The overseas market has shown impressive growth, with revenue of 3.122 billion yuan in 2024, a 44.67% increase year-over-year, contributing to 20% of total revenue [4][5].

石化周报 多方因素致使油价回升，短期或维持区间震荡 2025 年 04 月 19 日 ➢ 多方因素致使油价回升，短期或维持区间震荡。4 月 16 日，OPEC+发布最 新的补偿减产计划，涉及减产国包含伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、哈 萨克斯坦、阿曼、俄罗斯，补偿减产时间从 25 年 4 月至 26 年 6 月，累计减产 457.2 万桶/日，其中，4、5、6 月分别减产 22.2、37.8、43.1 万桶/日，同时， OPEC 表示，俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦须对 69、130 万桶/日的超产石油进行补偿， 此番态度相较以往较为强势，后续建议持续跟踪 OPEC+的补偿减产情况。此外， 于同日，乌克兰批准将乌克兰战时状态和总动员期限延长 90 天；美国宣布对中 国的山东胜星化工有限公司实施制裁，理由是该公司购买了价值超十亿美元的伊 朗原油，且美国于次日凌晨再次表示"将伊朗的能源出口降至零"。俄乌、美伊 局势尚不明朗，尽管市场对此已有所预期，但由于上周油价已基本触底，本周市 场情绪有所回暖，从而在 OPEC 要求超产国家减产、乌克兰延长战时状态、美国 加大对伊朗制裁的共同作用下，油价依然有所回升。短期来看，在没有较 ...