Inflation Overview - In August 2025, China's PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline since March is notable, with August's PPI year-on-year growth improving from -3.6% in July to -2.9%[2] - The recovery of PPI is supported by supply-side policies and a low base effect from the previous year, which is expected to continue influencing PPI positively in September[2] - August marked the first month since July where PPI month-on-month growth turned positive, rising from -0.1% to 0.1%[3] CPI Insights - The CPI's decline contrasts sharply with PPI's recovery, primarily driven by food inflation, particularly in the pork market, which saw a decrease in wholesale prices[4] - Core CPI, excluding food prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of increase, influenced by consumption policies and rising international gold prices[4][5] Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policies have effectively reduced price pressures in the upstream industries, contributing to the stabilization of PPI[3] - Marginal improvements in midstream prices are observed, although downstream PPI remains weak, indicating challenges in demand recovery and price transmission[3] Risk Factors - Future risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in export dynamics[6]

有色金属行业 2025H1 总结 25H1 表现亮眼，何妨吟啸且徐行 2025 年 09 月 10 日 ➢ 2025 年以来有色板块整体情况。从二级市场来看，2025 年至今，有色金属 上涨 67.57%，其中 2025Q2 上涨 10.16%，位列第 8。2025 年以来有色金属板 块整体涨幅为 67.57%，板块排第 2，其中 2025Q2 有色金属上涨 10.16%，板 块排名第 8；2025 年 H1，有色金属上涨 27.65%，板块排名第 1。 ➢ 细分板块来看：2025H1 盈利亮眼，贵金属表现最好。①贵金属：2025H1 黄金价格同比+39.8%，贵金属板块归母净利润同比+64.7%；2025Q2 归母净利 润 57.85 亿元，同比、环比分别增长 75.62%和 48.44%。②工业金属：2025H1 铝/铜/锌价分别同比增长 2.27%/4.02%/4.85%，归母净利分别同比变化 +41.0%/-0.4%/+25.7%。③能源金属：2025H1 电池级碳酸锂和氢氧化锂同比 下跌 32.0%和 27.7%；硫酸钴和四氧化三钴价格分别同比增长 26.0%和 26.7%。 2025H1 锂板块归 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, focusing on undervalued stocks with performance potential and improving industry conditions [4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector showed a revenue growth of +3.23% year-on-year in H1 2025, an increase of 4.45 percentage points compared to the previous year. However, net profit decreased by -2.00%, improving by 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. - In Q2 2025, revenue growth was +0.48%, down by 2.87 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.94% quarter-on-quarter. Net profit saw a decline of -6.50% year-on-year, down 7.57 percentage points year-on-year and down 9.66% quarter-on-quarter [1][11]. - A total of 282 companies in the sector achieved positive growth in net profit after deducting non-recurring items, while 120 companies reported losses [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Data Review for H1 2025 - The basic chemical sector's revenue growth rate for H1 2025 was +3.23%, with a net profit growth rate of -2.00%. The annualized return on equity (ROE) was 3.25%, down by 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, and the gross margin was 17.77%, down by 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue growth was +0.48%, with a net profit growth rate of -6.50%. The gross margin for Q2 was 16.70%, down by 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [11]. 2. Positive Outlook on Specific Sub-sectors - The report highlights several sub-sectors with strong investment potential: - **Polyester Filament**: The industry is expected to see improved supply-demand balance as new capacity comes online, with leading companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Hengyi Petrochemical recommended [2]. - **Refrigerants**: With supply constraints and stable demand, companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are expected to maintain high growth [2]. - **TDI**: The industry is experiencing improved profitability due to supply tightness, with recommendations for Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [2]. - **Silicone**: After a period of price pressure, the sector is expected to recover, with companies like Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Hesheng Silicon Industry highlighted [2]. - **Compound Fertilizers**: The sector is projected to benefit from long-term demand growth and improved industry concentration, with New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley recommended [2]. - **Pesticides**: The sector has shown significant revenue and profit improvement, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co. recommended [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In 2025, new features have emerged in local government bond issuance, including longer issuance terms, a higher proportion of self - reviewed and self - issued regions, more distinct differential pricing between general and special bonds as well as callable and non - callable bonds, and a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances with significant differentiation in issuance spreads across different terms. - When selecting VAT local government bonds, one can consider calculating the implied VAT rate through the valuation of similar old bonds and using the traditional primary - secondary market spread method [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 New Features in Local Government Bond Issuance 3.1.1 Longer Issuance Terms and Higher Proportion of Self - Reviewed and Self - Issued Regions - As of September 7, 2025, the issuance terms of local government bonds have been further extended compared to 2024, mainly due to a significant increase in the supply of ultra - long - term local government bonds, with the proportion rising from 42.71% to 48.63%. - The change in the supply of local government bonds of different terms has affected the liquidity in the secondary market. Since the end of 2024, the turnover rates of 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds have significantly increased, especially the monthly turnover rate of 30Y bonds has remained above 10%. - The proportion of bonds issued by self - reviewed and self - issued regions has further increased to 61.04%, indicating that the quota allocation of local government bonds is tilted towards regions with well - prepared projects and high investment efficiency [1][8][22]. 3.1.2 More Distinct Differential Pricing between General and Special Bonds, Callable and Non - Callable Bonds - In 2025, the pricing difference between general and special bonds is more obvious, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 47.41%. Among them, 50% of special bonds have a coupon rate up to 3bp higher than general bonds, which is consistent with the secondary - market spread. - The issuance scale of callable bonds in 2025 is only 27 billion yuan, accounting for only 3%. The pricing difference between callable and non - callable bonds is also significant, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 56.67%, and 50% of the differences are within 3bp [24][26][31]. 3.1.3 Continuous Increase in the Proportion of Over - Priced Issuances and Significant Differentiation in Issuance Spreads across Different Terms - In 2025, the spread between local government bond issuance rates and treasury bond rates has widened to over 20bp, while the average bid spread has remained around 5bp, leading to a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances. - Since August 2025, affected by the coupon VAT policy, the market - oriented issuance of local government bonds has been further enhanced. Currently, the issuance spreads of bonds with a term of 3Y and above are relatively consistent with secondary - market spreads, and sometimes the issuance spreads are higher, increasing the value of individual bonds and providing more trading opportunities [34][35][37]. 3.2 How to Select VAT Local Government Bonds 3.2.1 Calculating the Implied VAT Rate through the Valuation of Similar Old Bonds - As of September 8, 2025, 278 VAT local government bonds have been issued, with a cumulative issuance of 1.097135 trillion yuan, averaging 394.7 million yuan per bond. - If the implied VAT rate calculated through the valuation of similar old bonds exceeds 3%, it indicates that the issuance rate takes tax into account and is at least non - loss for funds. When the implied VAT rate at issuance is higher than 6%, the yield of VAT new bonds has downward space. One can focus on bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 21, 22, 26 - 29 issued on September 8 but not yet listed [59][70]. 3.2.2 Traditional Primary - Secondary Market Spread - If the spread between the issuance rate of local government bonds and the secondary - market valuation of similar bonds is greater than 0, it indicates that the issuance rate is relatively high, and the new bonds have a safety margin or excess return space. - Currently, one can focus on 30Y bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 30, 25 Guangdong Bond 48 - 54 and 10Y bond 25 Dalian Bond 32 issued on September 8 but not yet listed. Bonds with terms of 3Y, 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y are also worth attention if the spread between their issuance rates and treasury bond rates is greater than the secondary - market spread [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the biodiesel industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to 5% compared to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF prices, with the CIF price reaching $2746.53 per ton, a 5.61% increase week-on-week. HVO prices also saw a rise of 1.44% to $2353.75 per ton [3]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have risen, with average prices reported at 7220 CNY per ton and 6740 CNY per ton, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 100 CNY [3]. - Shell has officially canceled its plan to build an 820,000-ton/year biodiesel facility in Rotterdam due to insufficient competitiveness, marking a shift back to traditional fossil fuel production [4]. - The Philippines has postponed its B4 biodiesel blending plan to at least 2026 due to rising coconut oil prices and supply concerns [4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - SAF CIF price reached $2746.53 per ton, up 5.61% week-on-week - HVO FOB price at $2353.75 per ton, up 1.44% week-on-week - Domestic gutter oil price at 6740 CNY per ton, up 100 CNY week-on-week - Domestic waste cooking oil price at 7220 CNY per ton, up 100 CNY week-on-week [3] Industry Developments - Shell cancels biodiesel facility in Rotterdam due to market conditions - Philippines delays B4 biodiesel blending plan to 2026 due to coconut oil supply issues [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, including Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggou Environmental Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Langkun Environment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the wind power gearbox industry, suggesting a focus on companies like Weili Transmission, Guoda Special Materials, and Delijia [4][38]. Core Insights - The demand side shows robust growth in both onshore and offshore wind power bidding, with a total public bidding capacity of approximately 164.1 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 90%. The average bidding price for wind turbine units was 1616 RMB/kW, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The supply side indicates a high concentration in the wind gearbox industry, with the top four manufacturers holding a combined market share of 79% in 2023. The industry has significant barriers to entry, including technological, financial, and validation barriers [2][34]. - The global wind gearbox market is projected to grow from 5.941 billion USD in 2024 to 7.824 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.70% [27][29]. Demand Side Summary - The domestic wind power bidding is thriving, with onshore bids reaching 152.8 GW (up 97% year-on-year) and offshore bids at 11.3 GW (up 27% year-on-year) in 2024. The first half of 2025 saw an additional 71.9 GW in new bids, marking an 8.8% increase [1][9]. - The shift towards larger wind turbines has led to a structural increase in demand for gearboxes, as major manufacturers transition from direct-drive to semi-direct or doubly-fed systems [1][25]. Supply Side Summary - The wind gearbox industry has high entry barriers due to the need for advanced technology and significant capital investment. The top four manufacturers dominate the market, indicating a stable competitive landscape [2][34]. - The gearbox accounts for about 15% of the total cost of wind turbines, making it a critical component in the wind power generation process [31][34]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Weili Transmission is recognized for its long-standing expertise in precision transmission and is expanding its gearbox production capacity with a new smart factory project [39]. - Guoda Special Materials is focusing on integrated supply for gearbox components and has seen significant revenue growth, with a 187% increase in gearbox component revenue in 2024 [44]. - Delijia is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the wind gearbox sector, with plans for an IPO and significant market share in both global and Chinese markets [50].

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with production elasticity and cost advantages, specifically highlighting藏格矿业, 中矿资源, 永兴材料, 盐湖股份, and 雅化集团 as key investment targets [3][66]. Core Insights - The Australian lithium market is experiencing a supply adjustment with four major mines currently offline, leading to a total production capacity reduction of approximately 750,000 tons (94,000 tons LCE), which constitutes 14% of Australia's total lithium production capacity [3][13]. - The report anticipates that the lithium price has reached a bottom, and the new supply adjustments may significantly improve the industry landscape, potentially stimulating upward price elasticity [3][13]. - The report indicates that apart from Greenbushes and Pilgangoora, most Australian mines are facing substantial operational pressures, with cash costs increasing for several projects [2][10]. Summary by Sections Australian Mining Overview - As of Q2 2025, Australian lithium concentrate production is estimated at approximately 1.13 million tons, a 23% increase quarter-on-quarter, but the supply growth is below expectations [1][8]. - The production increases are primarily driven by the successful ramp-up of the Pilgangoora P1000 project and improved output from Wodgina [1][8]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - Greenbushes reported a cash cost of AUD 366 per ton, up 7% quarter-on-quarter, while Pilgangoora's cash cost decreased by 10% to AUD 619 per ton due to increased production [2][10]. - Marion's cash cost rose to AUD 717 per ton, while Wodgina's cash cost decreased to AUD 641 per ton, reflecting operational improvements [2][10]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The report predicts that by 2025, Australian lithium production will be approximately 448,000 tons LCE, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with expectations of further production increases in 2026 and 2027 [3][14]. - The report emphasizes that the operational pressures on existing mines may lead to further production cuts, particularly under current lithium price conditions [3][13]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with藏格矿业 projected to have an EPS of 1.64 in 2024 and a PE of 34, while中矿资源 is expected to have an EPS of 1.05 and a PE of 42 [4][66]. -雅化集团, 永兴材料, and 盐湖股份 are also highlighted with favorable EPS and PE ratios, indicating strong investment potential [4][66].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that this collaboration will facilitate liquidity management by the central bank, even with potential increases in bond supply [2][10] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds have decreased from a peak of 2.88 trillion yuan to 2.29 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual reduction in long-term liquidity [2][10] - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen close to 20 basis points from its low, providing room for the central bank to resume government bond trading operations [2][10] Group 2 - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.951 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 97.55%, while new general bonds and special bonds have also seen significant issuance [4][18] - The report notes that the issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 679.7 billion yuan, with expectations of a noticeable decline in government bond supply starting in October [4][18] - The report identifies three opportunities for narrowing the yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds, including the potential for lower issuance rates and reduced supply [5][19] Group 3 - The liquidity in the market remains comfortable, with key money market rates such as DR001 and R001 maintaining levels between 1.31-1.36% [3][20] - The report indicates that the total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit has surged to 1.2098 trillion yuan, leading to increased pressure on renewals [3][20] - The central bank's open market operations have seen a net withdrawal of 12.047 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing liquidity management efforts [31][32] Group 4 - The report tracks government bond issuance, noting that from September 1 to September 7, national bonds issued amounted to 349.07 billion yuan, with net financing of 169.83 billion yuan [38][42] - The expected issuance of national bonds from September 8 to September 14 is 491 billion yuan, with net financing projected at 340.22 billion yuan [38][42] - Local government bonds issued during the same period are expected to total 301.67 billion yuan, with a significant portion attributed to refinancing [38][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The comprehensive quantitative model remains bearish overall. The intensity of the current "watch stocks, trade bonds" market since late July exceeds that of other periods in the past three years, and it may become a new trend rather than a short - term shock [1][2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Performance 3.1.1 Secondary Market Trends This week, the yield curve fluctuated within a narrow range. The medium - and short - term interest rates of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined. The short - term interest rates of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds declined significantly. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield declined by the largest margin of - 2.5BP, and the yield of China Development Bank bonds around the 6 - year mark declined by the largest margin of - 2.4BP [1][5]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Trends This week, 5 Treasury bonds, 8 China Development Bank bonds, 6 Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 1 Export - Import Bank bond were issued. Among Treasury bonds, the 1 - month 25 Discount Treasury Bond 54 had a high full - subscription multiple of 3.08 times. Among policy - financial bonds, the 7 - year 25 China Development Bank Clean - issued Bond 04 had a high full - subscription multiple of 5.51 times. The overall full - subscription multiples of Agricultural Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds were relatively low [14]. 3.2 Latest Results of Each Calculation Model The comprehensive signal model has been bearish since July 10, 2025. As of September 5, the long - short ratio model and the fund duration model are bullish, while the rest are bearish. This week, the fund duration model changed from bearish to bullish on September 3 [18][20][29]. 3.3 Recent Behavioral Characteristics of Each Institution This week, the rolling cumulative net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds by funds continued to rise. Fund companies' net purchases of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased significantly. Rural commercial banks changed from cumulative net purchases to cumulative net sales of 10 - year policy - financial bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds. Securities companies changed from net sales to net purchases of 3 types of long - term interest - rate bonds [2][31][39]. 3.4 Recent Stock - Bond Correlation Performance Under the influence of the good performance of the equity market recently, the bond market has been weak overall. From July 22 to September 5, the correlation coefficient between stocks and bonds remained at a high level, lasting for 34 trading days with a total upward amplitude of 15.9BP. This market may become a new trend [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 3C equipment sector, suggesting that the sector is likely to enter a period of high prosperity due to Apple's new manufacturing plan and product innovation cycle [3][40]. Core Insights - Apple has announced a new "Made in America" initiative, committing to invest a total of $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, marking the largest investment in the U.S. in Apple's history [1][10]. - The new product innovation cycle is expected to begin, with the introduction of multiple new products, including the iPhone 17 series, which will feature a thinner design and may eliminate the SIM card slot in most markets, pushing for a transition to eSIM technology [2][14]. - The return of production lines to the U.S. and the upcoming new products are anticipated to boost demand for 3C equipment, leading to a favorable market environment for domestic 3C equipment companies [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Apple's "Made in America" Initiative - Apple has increased its investment in the U.S. by an additional $100 billion, totaling $600 billion, to accelerate production domestically [1][10]. - The initiative involves collaboration with ten U.S. companies, including Corning and Applied Materials, to enhance local manufacturing capabilities [12][13]. 2. New Product Innovation Cycle - Apple is set to launch several new products, including the iPhone 17 Air, which will replace the Plus model and focus on a lightweight design [2][14]. - Future product plans include significant design innovations for iPhones, such as foldable models and all-glass designs, as well as new entries into smart home devices and augmented reality products [2][21]. 3. 3C Equipment Sector Outlook - The report highlights that the demand for 3C equipment is expected to rise due to Apple's manufacturing plans and the introduction of new products [3][22]. - Key domestic 3C equipment companies mentioned include: - **Bohong Precision**: Focused on automation equipment and has secured orders for new AR/MR production equipment [23][26]. - **Lian De Equipment**: A leading supplier of semiconductor display automation equipment, benefiting from the rise in flexible AMOLED usage [27][28]. - **Lian Win Laser**: Known for precision laser welding equipment, with increasing orders for small steel shell battery welding devices [31][32]. - **Jie Put**: A pioneer in optical detection and laser processing equipment, with significant revenue growth [31][35]. - **Genesis**: A leader in high-end CNC machine tools, recognized for its drilling and tapping machines in the 3C sector [34][39].