英国石油公司【英国石油公司【表标题】 研究报告 2025 年 4 月 29 日 英国石油公司（BP US） 天然气和低碳业务亏损；资产剥离增加 Scott Darling Catherine Li Scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_summary] （本报告为 2025 年 4 月 29 日发布的英文报告的翻译版,以原版为准。） 最新动态/新闻 我们预计，市场对英国石油公司（未被 HTI 覆盖）2025 年第一季度业绩反应略微负面，公司报告经调净收入为 13.81 亿美元，低于由低于预期的天然气和低碳部门驱动的一致预期。股息为 8.00 美分/股，同比增长 10%（2024 年第一季 度为 7.27 美分/股），远高于公司每年至少提供 4%股息增长的计划。股票回购为 7.5 亿美元，符合 2025 年第一季度 7.5 亿美元至 10 亿美元的先前指引。公司还重申了 2025 财年资本支出指引 150 亿美元（26/27 财年 130-150 亿美 元）和 2025 年下半年剥离至 30-40 亿美元（vs 30 亿美元）。公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company continues to experience rapid growth, with a significant increase in electrophysiology procedures and potential growth in peripheral products due to centralized procurement [1][5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 504.27, reflecting a 40% upside from the current price of 433.06 [1][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2,066 million, representing a growth of 25.2%, and a net profit of 673 million, reflecting a growth of 26.1% [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show revenue of 5.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.93%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion, up 30.69% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 9.34 for 2025 and 15.89 for 2027 [5]. Operational Highlights - The company has seen a 50% increase in three-dimensional electrophysiology procedures, with over 15,000 procedures completed in 2024 [5]. - The company’s electrophysiology revenue is expected to reach 4.4 billion, a growth of 19.73% [5]. - The company has successfully launched key products in the electrophysiology market, including AForcePlus catheters and a cardiac pulsed field ablation device [5]. Market Position - The company has expanded its market presence, with over 1,360 hospitals now using its electrophysiology products, and a significant increase in the number of hospitals adopting its coronary and peripheral products [5]. - International revenue is projected to grow by 19.75%, with a notable 45.88% increase in self-branded products in key markets [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 68.77, representing a potential upside of 9% from the current price of RMB 55.17 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows stable growth, with revenue reaching RMB 5.79 billion, up 7.59% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 497 million, up 5.82% year-on-year [1][8]. - External sales growth is expected to outpace internal sales, driven by high demand and national subsidies, contributing to a positive outlook for 2025 [1][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 23.91% in Q1 2025, while overall profitability remains stable despite increased competition in the domestic market [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 21,304 million - 2024A: RMB 22,427 million - 2025E: RMB 23,821 million - 2026E: RMB 25,073 million - 2027E: RMB 26,392 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 5.6%, 5.3%, 6.2%, 5.3%, and 5.3% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023A: RMB 2,180 million - 2024A: RMB 2,244 million - 2025E: RMB 2,397 million - 2026E: RMB 2,557 million - 2027E: RMB 2,708 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 5.4%, 3.0%, 6.8%, 6.7%, and 5.9% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2025E: RMB 2.99 - 2026E: RMB 3.19 - 2027E: RMB 3.38 [3][8]. Company Outlook - For 2025, the company anticipates selling RMB 7.37 billion worth of goods to SEB, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, supported by trade-in programs and market share growth [1][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiuhuashan Tourism is "Outperform" with a target price of RMB 48.50, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of RMB 235 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 69 million, up 31.8% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company aims to enhance its capacity and aims for a revenue target of RMB 840 million and a profit of RMB 205 million by 2025, focusing on building a regional tourism complex and leveraging strategic opportunities in the Yangtze River Delta [12][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Jiuhuashan Tourism are as follows: - 2023: RMB 724 million - 2024: RMB 764 million (+5.6%) - 2025: RMB 831 million (+8.7%) - 2026: RMB 892 million (+7.3%) - 2027: RMB 943 million (+5.8%) [3][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly: - 2023: RMB 175 million - 2024: RMB 186 million (+6.5%) - 2025: RMB 215 million (+15.3%) - 2026: RMB 240 million (+12.0%) - 2027: RMB 263 million (+9.6%) [3][6]. Business Performance - The company reported divergent business performance in 2024: - Hotel revenue: RMB 237 million (+1.1%), gross profit margin (GPM) 14.1% (-2.4ppts) - Cable car revenue: RMB 293 million (-0.6%), GPM 86.0% (+0.02ppts) - Passenger transport revenue: RMB 159 million (+31.2%), GPM 52.4% (+3.8ppts) - Travel agency revenue: RMB 62 million (-7.5%), GPM 13.0% (+3.6ppts) [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and digital capabilities, leveraging its Buddhist cultural resources to promote new brands like "New Anhui Cuisine" and developing digital platforms for improved customer experience [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it provides insights into the company's performance and expectations for future profitability [4][8]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong/Macao markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][9]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products by optimizing its product mix and adjusting pricing, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from HK$5,600 in FY24, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose to HK$8,600, a 14.7% increase from HK$7,500 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, which accounted for 19% of total RSV in FY25, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This proportion is expected to increase to 20%-23% in FY26 [3][11]. - The RSV share of priced products in the gold jewelry category rose from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY25, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 28.39 based on a 17x PE for 2025 [4][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth, with 2024 revenue projected at RMB 5.89 billion (+10.12%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 0.78 billion (+27.61%) [4][12]. - The veterinary medicine segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 2.02 billion in 2024 (+10.0%) [4][13]. - The company is enhancing its global operations, with products sold in 115 countries and regions, establishing a strong position in the global pharmaceutical manufacturing industry [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are as follows: - 2024 Revenue: RMB 5.89 billion (+10.12%) - 2024 Net Profit: RMB 0.78 billion (+27.61%) - 2025 Revenue: RMB 6.60 billion (+12.1%) - 2025 Net Profit: RMB 0.93 billion (+19.5%) [3][4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.67 in 2025, RMB 2.01 in 2026, and RMB 2.36 in 2027 [4][12]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical raw materials segment is benefiting from high demand for macrolide antibiotics, with a projected revenue of RMB 2.48 billion in 2024 (+11.7%) and a gross profit margin of 28.4% [4][13]. - The veterinary medicine business is expanding, with significant sales growth expected due to improved market conditions and product certifications [4][13][14]. Global Operations - The company is focusing on globalization and integration, with over 70 active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates expected to be produced and sold in 2024 [4][14]. - The company has established sales channels in multiple countries, enhancing its global reach and operational capabilities [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 13.08, compared to the current price of RMB 9.96 [1][6][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from improved wind conditions, with onshore and offshore wind utilization hours increasing by 152 and 421 hours year-on-year, respectively, leading to a positive outlook for performance recovery [1][6][13]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 14.56 billion, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 6.5% to RMB 2.79 billion [6][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows promising results with revenue of RMB 3.1 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 42.8% to RMB 750 million, driven by strong wind resources [6][13]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 but is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching RMB 18.44 billion by 2027, representing a growth of 17.6% [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 2.79 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.73 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.1% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 1.00 in 2024 to RMB 1.34 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][7]. Future Growth Potential - The company has a robust pipeline of future projects, including a combined heat and power (CHP) project and offshore wind projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to net profits in 2026 and 2027 [6][14]. - The anticipated internal rates of return (IRR) for the CHP projects are 12.55% and 17.73%, indicating strong potential for profitability [6][14]. - The company plans to initiate a mid-term dividend of no less than 10% in 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns while pursuing growth [6][14].

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9] Core Views - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding plasma collection stations through both organic and external growth, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9] - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2027 show a recovery trend, with net profit expected to reach RMB 753 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][6] - The company has a projected EPS of RMB 1.16 for 2025 and RMB 1.50 for 2027, with a PE ratio of 28X for 2025 [1][9] - The company has 20 operating plasma stations and plans to increase plasma collection volume to 630.6 tons in 2024, a 10.4% increase [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Industrials and Energy sectors, particularly focusing on defense spending and aerospace recovery [6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the data center sector amidst tariff pressures, with major tech companies reaffirming their capital expenditure plans while considering strategic adjustments [2][18]. - The industrial sector shows stable price indices for aircraft engines and components, with a notable increase in the price index for electric motors and generators [3][28]. - Infrastructure developments are emphasized, particularly the approval of price caps for capacity auctions by FERC, which aims to stabilize market conditions [4][21]. - The energy sector is experiencing fluctuations in natural gas prices and a decline in supply and consumption, indicating a complex market environment [5][21]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Major tech companies are committed to significant investments in data center capacity despite tariff uncertainties, with Alphabet planning to invest approximately $75 billion [2][18]. - Amazon and other tech leaders are also focused on improving efficiency to mitigate cost increases due to tariffs [18]. Industrial Sector - The U.S. price index for aircraft engines and components remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][28]. - The price index for electric motors and generators has seen a significant year-on-year increase of 21% [3][28]. Infrastructure - FERC has approved price caps for PJM capacity auctions, setting a cap of approximately $325 per MW per day and a floor of $175 per MW per day for upcoming auctions [4][21]. - The U.S. government is taking steps to reform coal regulations, impacting over one-third of coal capacity [4][23]. Energy - Natural gas prices in the U.S. have decreased, with supply and consumption both declining, leading to lower inventory levels compared to historical averages [5][21]. - The report notes a rebound in crude oil futures prices, indicating a volatile energy market [5]. Aerospace - The aerospace sector is witnessing significant advancements, with companies like SpaceX maintaining a high launch frequency, showcasing the industry's growth potential [25][26]. - The price index for aircraft engines and components remains stable, reflecting steady demand in the sector [28][31]. Defense - The report indicates a global trend towards increased defense spending, with countries like Belgium and the Philippines enhancing their military capabilities through new aircraft purchases [36][37]. - The U.S. defense spending price index shows a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, reflecting ongoing investment in defense capabilities [36][38]. Robotics - The industrial robotics sector installed 541,302 units in 2023, marking a slight decline from record levels, yet maintaining a strong presence in the automotive industry [39][44]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the robotics market, driven by reindustrialization and AI data center developments [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 14.67 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while net profit increased by 63.7% to 1.06 billion yuan [3][11]. - The core product, Yanjing U8, saw a sales growth rate of 31.4%, becoming a key driver of performance growth [4][12]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing reforms, which are anticipated to enhance management efficiency and profitability [7][14]. Financial Performance - The revenue from the beer business rose by 1.0% year-on-year to 13.23 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 42.6% [4][13]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.90 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total cash dividend payout of 536 million yuan [3][11]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.44 billion yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.52 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.51 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.54 yuan [7][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully optimized its product structure, with medium-high-end beer accounting for 67.0% of revenue [4][12]. - The number of dealers increased to 8,632, reflecting the company's expansion strategy across various channels [6][14]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to improved profitability metrics, including a net profit margin of 9.0% [5][13].