[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------|-------| | 海外市场周报 | | | | | | | | | | | 通胀预期分化，静待数据指引 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 上周全球股市涨多跌少。美股三大指数表现分化，纳指和标普 500 分别上涨 3.3% 和 1.0%，道指小幅回调；欧洲方面，三大市场股指集体上涨，德国 DAX 和法国 CAC40 分别上涨 3.9%和 2.7%，英国富时 100 小幅上涨 0.3%；亚太地区多数市 场股指上涨，仅韩国综合指数下跌 1.1%，中国台湾加权指数领涨全球主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is acquiring an 88.6525% stake in Shaanxi Coal Power Group for approximately 15.695 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance its core competitiveness and align with national policy directions [4] - The acquisition is anticipated to significantly boost the company's performance, with an estimated profit increase of about 1.445 billion yuan post-integration [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.03 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1 billion yuan, which reflects a commitment to shareholder returns [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 172.3 billion yuan, 174.4 billion yuan, and 178.5 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 21.364 billion yuan, 22.230 billion yuan, and 23.194 billion yuan [5][14] - The company has a strong cash position with 38.79 billion yuan in cash as of Q3 2024, supporting the acquisition [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 11.25, 10.81, and 10.36 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [5][13] Operational Insights - The total installed capacity of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is 18,300 MW, with 8,300 MW operational and 10,000 MW under construction, which will enhance the company's coal power integration [4] - The company has committed to a minimum cash dividend of 60% of distributable profits for the years 2022-2024, reinforcing its focus on shareholder value [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | | 煤炭周报 煤炭 | 红利催化行情，支撑 | | 优于大市（维持） | 估值上行 | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 煤炭开采 沪深300 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《掘金新疆系列：需求端四大逻 辑 ， 助 力 疆 煤 产 业 链 高 景 气 》， 2024.12.3 2.《煤炭周报：日耗延续回升，煤 价仍有支撑》，2024.12.1 3.《煤炭周报：寒潮扰动来袭，静 待反弹开启》，2024.11.24 4.《煤炭周报：煤价底部确立，需 求释放可期》，2024.11.17 5.《煤炭周报：财政政策再加码， 板块布局正当时》 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | | 2024 年 12 月 8 | | 11 汽车 | 月初步统计乘用车市场零售 244.6 | | 万辆，以旧换新下重卡 优于大市（维持） | 11 月销量环比 | | 证券分析师 | 增长至 6.9 万辆 | 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号：S0120523120002 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 秦梓月 邮箱：qinzy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《10 月小米汽车单月销量首次 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | | 2024 年 12 月 07 日 | | | —— | 非农回温，失业率提升降息概率 2024 | 月美国劳工数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 核心观点：11 月，美国新增非农就业数据回升，为 22.7 万人，预计中值为 22.0 万人。上一月，受东南部飓风以及波音公司罢工影响，美国 10 月就业增速放缓至 三年多来的最低水平，仅为 1.2 万人（在本月向上修正到 3.6 万人）。失业率方面， 本月，美国失业率小幅抬升 0.1pct 至 4.2%，预期中值为 4.1%。在消息面上，近 期，鲍威尔在参与公开访谈活动时表示，美国经济的强劲意味着，美联储可 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|------------------------|--------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | 估值有扰动，汇率有支撑 | | | | | | | | | —— | 2024 | 月外汇储备数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：截止 11 月底，中国外汇储备 32658.60 亿美元，环比增加 48.1 亿美元。 受美债收益率回落影响，估值效应或是外储减值的主要原因；11 月美元继续升值， 持币待涨心态恢复或导致结汇需求相对 10 月减少，但结汇需求或仍有待释放。向 前看，外储方面，预计短期估值因素可能导致外储减值，交易因素或加以对冲；汇 率方面，强美元带来压力 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业年度策略 汽车 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------| | 汽车 | 自主乘用车份额持续提升， | | Robotaxi+ 优于大市（维持） | 机器人产业趋势愈发 | | 证券分析师 | | | 邓健全 [Table_Summary] | 清晰 | 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号：S0120523120002 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 秦梓月 邮箱：qinzy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《理想汽车车位到车位功能全量上 线，1-10 月汽车行业收入增 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------|-------| | 医药生物 | 医药行业周报：创新器械支付环境有 | | | 优于大市（维持） | 望改善，哪些产品值得期待？ | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] | | | 投资要点： 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -39% -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《药用玻璃行业报告：中硼硅药玻 替代加速进行，国产厂家持续放量》， 2024.12.5 2.《2025 年医药策略报告：聚焦业绩 成长，关注整合并购》，2024.12.3 3.《医药行业周报：心梗百亿蓝海市 场，关注直接治疗药物》，2024.12.1 4.《 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [3] Core Views - The satellite internet industry is transitioning from thematic speculation to value investment, with supply-side capabilities and commercial loops beginning to take shape [4] - The satellite internet market in China is expected to reach a trillion-level market by 2031, with the market size exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The satellite payload will account for 70% of the total satellite cost during the mass production phase, with key investment opportunities in antennas, T/R components, baseband chips, and commercial aerospace support [4] Investment Strategy Satellite Internet Development - Yuanxin Satellite's Qianfan Constellation has completed its third launch, with the interval between launches gradually shortening, indicating the establishment of regular and flight-like launch capabilities [4] - The Qianfan Constellation plans to deploy 648 satellites in the first phase for regional coverage, 1,296 satellites in the second phase for global coverage, and over 15,000 satellites in the third phase, with 10% of the total constellation to be deployed within two years of the first launch [4] - Yuanxin Satellite has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Brazil's TELEBRAS to provide satellite communication services, with commercial operations expected to begin in 2026 [4] Satellite Launch Infrastructure - China's commercial aerospace launch sites, such as the Wenchang Commercial Launch Site, are becoming more sophisticated, enabling local production and use of rockets and satellites [4] - The Wenchang launch site has reduced the rocket launch cycle from 20 days to 10 days, with the capability to meet the launch needs of at least 19 rocket models from over 10 companies [4] Value Investment in Satellite Internet - The satellite internet industry is entering a value investment phase, with a focus on high-value-density segments such as satellite payloads [4] - Key investment opportunities include antennas (e g, Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics), T/R components (e g, Guobo Electronics, Chengchang Technology), and baseband chips (e g, ZTE Microelectronics, Fudan Microelectronics) [4] Industry News Satellite Internet - The third batch of Qianfan Constellation satellites was successfully launched, increasing the number of in-orbit satellites to 54, enhancing continuous communication capabilities [4] - China's first commercial aerospace launch site, the Wenchang Commercial Launch Site, completed its first launch, with an annual launch capacity of 16 launches per launch pad [4] 5G Development - China has built over 4 1 million 5G base stations, with 5G networks extending to rural areas and integrating into 80 major economic sectors [6] - The 5G application scale-up development promotion meeting emphasized the need for systematic advancement, precise policies, and collaborative development to further enhance 5G application capabilities [6] Semiconductor Industry - NVIDIA's Blackwell AI chips are planned to be manufactured in the US, with TSMC preparing for production in 2025, reflecting the intensifying competition in the semiconductor industry between the US and China [6] Weekly Market Review - The communication sector (CITIC) rose by 1 97% this week, underperforming the broader market, with key opportunities in satellite internet and commercial aerospace [7] - Top gainers included Chunxing Precision (26 78%) and ST Zhongjia (15 23%), while top decliners included Ruisi Kangda (-18 28%) and Yitong Technology (-13 21%) [8] Focus List - Key companies to watch in the satellite internet and commercial aerospace sectors include China Telecom, Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics, and ZTE [9] - Long-term focus areas include operators (e g, China Mobile, China Telecom), communication infrastructure (e g, China Tower), and satellite internet-related companies (e g, Chuangyi Information, Mengsheng Electronics) [9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |------------------|-----------------------| | | | | OpenAI 计算机 | 十二日发布会点燃 AI | | 优于大市（维持） | 应用 | 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -44% -33% -22% -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《AI 应用 B 端商业闭环形成，国产 算力有望迎来新一轮外部政策催化 期》，2024.12.3 2.《金山办公：信创受益的开始》， 2024.11.30 3.《AI Agent：海外创新企业的再次 自我革命》，2024.11.27 4.《科技自主可 ...