| [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2358.97 | 1999.47 | 2249.95 | 2448.06 | | 增长率 | 22.39% | -15.24% | 12.53% | 8.80% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 141.24 | 88.91 | 110.40 | 128.41 | | 增长率 | 40.76% | -37.05% | 24.16% | 16.32% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.72 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 19.81% | 11.16% | 12.14% | 12.38% | | PE | 17 | 27 | 22 | 19 | | PB | 3.29 | 2.93 | 2.58 | 2.26 | 数据来源： Wind ，西南证券 [ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 01 月 07 日 证券研究报告•公司动态跟 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 通用设备月报（1201-1231） 需求继续磨底，重视结构性机会 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：wn@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn | 1 行情回顾：估值收缩，板块继续调整… | | --- | | 2 景气 皮跟踪 | | 3 数据回顾 . | | 4 相关标的 … | | 5 风险提示 … | [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -24% -14% -4% 6% 16% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 机械设备 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- ...

西南证券研究发展中心 建筑材料&新材料团队 2025年1月 62600 核 心 观 点 建筑材料&新材料行业2025年投资策略 重视供给端积极变化，重点关注消费建材 1 行业观点：需求端有望在宽松的宏观政策刺激下企稳回暖，供给端主动而为更值得关注。水泥行业在行业自 律和错峰生产背景下，提价较为顺利；玻纤等行业亦有提价动作，热塑/风电类玻纤产品分别提价10%- 15%/15%-20%，叠加需求端回暖相关标的盈利水平有望持续修复。房地产行业进入存量市场，截至2023 年中国城镇住宅存量约为335.5亿平方米，城镇住房套数约3.74亿套，存量房翻新改造需求增长空间广阔； 在消费建材下游主要客户由B端转向C端过程中，部分品牌力、渠道力突出的标的值得重点关注。 需求端：房地产成交价格企稳回升迹象逐渐显现，统计数据显示，2024年11月70个大中城市新建商品住宅 成交价格环比上涨城市数为17个，环比10月增加10个，投资者购房置业信心逐渐回暖；房屋成交面积降幅 逐渐收窄，在宽松的宏观经济政策逐渐兑现过程中，需求端有望企稳回升。 水泥、混凝土：伴随地产新开工、施工面积降幅收窄，2025年国内水泥和熟料需求总量的降幅将收窄。 ...

轻工行业2025年投资策略 布局政策提振和成长性良好标的 西南证券研究发展中心 轻工研究团队 2025年1月 行业回溯与展望 1 2024年板块复盘：回顾2024年，轻工行业整体及各子板块涨幅落后于大盘，其中造纸、个护板块涨幅优于家居 、包装。全年来看，1）以嘉益股份、匠心家居为代表的部分出口标的在需求强韧性+盈利高弹性下有亮眼表现 。2）以自由点、冷酸灵、润本为代表的国货品牌崛起，持续抢占外资品牌份额，实现产品结构优化和渠道扩张 ，业绩优异。3）家居品类受下游需求收缩影响增速下行，但9月以来地产相关支持政策出台，以旧换新拉动家 居消费成效显著，龙头家居公司订单回暖，需求有望触底回升。基本面看家居有望在国补催化下改善，部分国货 个护品牌成长空间广阔，配置价值较高。 2025年选股思路：兼顾政策提振的细分板块及自身成长性较好的优质个股，推荐四条主线：1）国补政策持续性 较强，看好家居消费整体回暖。我们判断25年补贴政策在品类、区域、力度上都有进一步加强的可能，预计对 明年龙头订单的表现有所支撑。同时行业加速分化和集中度提升的趋势仍在持续推进，龙头个股有望在行业出清 背景下受益。2）国货消费品牌持续抢占外资份额， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the innovative drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting a mixed performance with 21 stocks rising and 87 falling in the first week of January 2025. The A-share innovative drug sector decreased by 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector fell by 4.59% [2][20][26]. - Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has increased by 11.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.18 percentage points, while the Hong Kong sector has risen by 7.7%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.46 percentage points [23][26]. - The report also discusses the approval of new drugs, with two new drugs approved in January domestically and four in the same week, but no new indications were approved [4][30][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the first week of January 2025, the A-share innovative drug sector saw a decline of 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector dropped by 4.59%. The XBI index in the US increased by 2.89% [2][20][27]. - The report notes that the A-share innovative drug sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the last six months, while the Hong Kong sector has underperformed the Hang Seng index [23][26]. 2. Drug Approvals - Two new drugs were approved in January domestically, with no new indications approved. In the same week, four new drugs were also approved without new indications [4][30][38]. - In the US, seven NDA approvals were granted in the week, while no new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan [5][34][37]. 3. Key Transactions - The report mentions significant global transactions, including a deal between Innovent Biologics and Roche for $1.08 billion, and other smaller transactions [6][42]. 4. Drug Development Progress - The report details the progress of GLP-1RA drugs for diabetes and obesity, with several drugs at various stages of clinical trials and approvals [13][15]. - It also highlights the sales performance of key drugs, such as the significant sales increase for Tirzepatide and Semaglutide in 2023 [19]. 5. Clinical Trials - The report outlines the number of clinical trials initiated, with 14 new trials announced in January, including various phases of trials for different drugs [33]. 6. Global Market Overview - The report provides an overview of the global innovative drug market, noting the lack of new drug approvals in major markets like Europe and Japan during the reporting period [34][37]. 7. Analyst Commentary - The report includes insights from analysts on the future outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in innovative drug development and market performance [1][8].

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 怡 亚 通（002183）交通运输 目标价：7.06 元（6 个月） 买入 （首次） 当前价：4.13 元 流通巨头，从商社迈向新质生产力 | 指标/年度 [Table_MainProfit] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 94422.37 | 84891.82 | 84891.82 | 85020.85 | | 增长率 | 10.57% | -10.09% | 0.00% | 0.15% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 140.99 | 107.53 | 132.70 | 190.18 | | 增长率 | -44.95% | -23.73% | 23.40% | 43.32% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | | 每股净资产 BPS（元） | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.53 | 3.59 | | 净资产收益率 R ...

2024年家电行业整体仍是呈现出较强韧性，在国补政策刺激下、海外补库周期下内外销均表现良好。 需求端：内销方面，Q1渠道补库，Q2-Q3终端需求走弱，整体呈现量价下滑态势，随着9月国补政策陆续 落地推广，Q4市场重新焕发活力，量价齐升，内销市场增速全年呈现V型走势；海外市场方面，补库需求带动 家电外销高景气度持续。根据产业在线数据，2024年1-10月空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量分别同比增长2%、 2.3%、5.9%，外销量分别同比增长33.7%、19.8%、17.1%。 成本端：铜、铝、ABS等主要大宗原材料价格均有所上涨，主要航线海运费也呈上涨趋势，但家电企业积极 推行效率改革，降本控费，整体盈利能力仍有小幅提升。 家电行业2025年投资策略 政策支撑内销增长，关注外销新兴市场 西南证券研究发展中心 家电研究团队 2024年12月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024年： 市场表现方面：家电行业指数涨幅居前，主要由于年初开始在红利风格影响下，配合家电行业扎实的基本 面表现，家电行业涨幅亮眼。5月，市场开始对原材料涨价、库存、外销基数等方面产生担心，家电行业表现 弱于市场。9月后，随着家电"国补"政策的持续落地刺激内需 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 12 月 27 日 证券研究报告•宏观专题报告 宏观专题 降息后美国地产该如何展望? ——需求、供给以及房价的三维解析 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary] 历史降息周期中，美国房地产市场回暖节奏。目前美国处在 1818 年以来的第 11 个长周期的繁荣阶段，短周期跨度在 3-5年左右，主要受到美债长端利率的 影响。从 1980 年以来的降息周期来看，美国新屋销售增速拐点通常出现在降 息时点前后。经济硬着陆下，除新冠疫情冲击之外，美国新屋销售同比出现向 上拐点滞后于 30 年抵押贷款固定利率出现向下拐点平均约 8.6 个月；经济软 着陆下，美国新屋销售同比出现向上拐点滞后于 30 年抵押贷款固定利率出现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].