Social Financing Overview - Social financing stock grew by 8% YoY in December 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from November but down 0.5 percentage points from the end of 2023[2] - December 2024 social financing increment reached 2.8575 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and marking a YoY increase of 924.9 billion yuan, ending four consecutive months of YoY decline[2] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 840.7 billion yuan in December, a YoY decrease of 268.5 billion yuan, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous month[2] Direct Financing and Corporate Bonds - Direct financing contributed significantly to social financing in 2024, with an increase of 13.5 trillion yuan, up 1.5 trillion yuan from 2023[2] - Government bonds, particularly those for hidden debt replacement, saw a YoY increase of 828.8 billion yuan in December, reaching 1.7612 trillion yuan[2] - Corporate bond financing improved for two consecutive months, with a YoY increase of 258.8 billion yuan in December, though net repayments of urban investment bonds reached 120.3 billion yuan[2] RMB Loans and Household Loans - RMB loans accounted for 29.42% of the social financing increment in December, up 7 percentage points from November but down 28 percentage points YoY[2] - Household medium- and long-term loans increased by 300 billion yuan in December, marking the third consecutive month of YoY growth, driven by real estate policy effects and year-end sales efforts[3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated potential RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in 2025 to maintain liquidity and support economic growth[2] - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost corporate investment confidence and improve household consumption, supported by new policies on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement[3] M1 and M2 Trends - M2 growth in December 2024 was 7.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from November but down 2.4 percentage points from the end of 2023[4] - M1 growth improved, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing to 8.7 percentage points, driven by local debt replacement and stabilizing real estate transactions[4] Risks and Challenges - Domestic policy implementation and internal demand growth may fall short of expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[5]

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade in 2024 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with exports up 5.9% and imports up 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $992.16 billion, an expansion of $170.06 billion compared to 2023[2] - In December 2024, exports surged by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports turned positive with a 1% increase, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $104.84 billion[2] - The "rush to export" effect was evident, driven by delayed Black Friday shopping in the US and concerns over potential tariff hikes under a Trump administration[2] Regional Trade Dynamics - Trade with ASEAN, Latin America, and South Korea grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 7.8%, 6%, and 5.6% respectively[2] - Exports to Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand saw double-digit growth, while exports to South Africa, the Netherlands, and Australia declined[2] - China's trade with RCEP partner countries accounted for 30.02% of total trade, up 0.11 percentage points from the previous month[2] Commodity-Specific Trends - Exports of machinery and electrical products, including automobiles, grew strongly, with car exports up 12.1% year-on-year in December[4] - Exports of upstream raw materials like rare earths and grains declined, with rare earth exports down 11.8% and grain exports down 47.6% in December[4] - Imports of key agricultural products like grains, soybeans, and edible oils fell sharply, with grain imports down 45.7% year-on-year in December[5] Global Economic Context - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5% in December, still in contraction but showing resilience, with South Korea's exports up 6.6% year-on-year[2] - US bond yield increases may suppress the US economy, and trade uncertainties with China under a potential Trump administration could impact export growth in the medium term[2]

Industry Overview - The construction sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, with the Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rising by 5.6%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 9.1 percentage points [4] - The housing construction sub-sector saw a 19.1% increase, while infrastructure rose by 7.9% [4] - The construction industry's PE ratio stood at 9.8x, ranking among the lowest in the Shenwan industry classification [4] Policy and Macro Environment - Incremental policy signals are clear, with fiscal policy expected to expand aggressively in 2025 to stabilize growth [4] - Infrastructure investment is projected to increase, with real estate investment declines expected to narrow, driving a recovery in physical demand [4] - A 12 trillion yuan debt resolution fund has been allocated to address local hidden debts and triangular debt issues [4] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - State-owned enterprise reforms focus on four areas: strengthening incentives, industry consolidation, new energy investments, and low-carbon business development [4] - These reforms are expected to improve cash flow, reduce leverage, and lower financial costs for construction SOEs [4] Belt and Road Initiative - The Belt and Road Initiative is entering a high-quality development phase, with potential policy support amid US-China tensions [4] - Overseas engineering demand is expected to remain strong, with China's overseas engineering contracts growing by 11.8% YoY in USD terms from January to November 2024 [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend state-owned enterprises, particularly those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [4] - Key recommended stocks include China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) [4] Sector Performance - The construction sector's valuation remains historically low, with a PE ratio of 9.8x, close to the 2014 low of 9.1x [16][19] - The sector's PB ratio is 0.8x, among the lowest in the Shenwan industry classification, only higher than banking and real estate [21] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 9.4% YoY from January to November 2024, driven by policy support and funding availability [26][40] - Key areas of growth include water conservancy and railway transportation [26] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment declined by 10.6% YoY from January to November 2024, with weak improvement expected in the near term [30] - Policy measures, including tax incentives and urban village renovations, aim to stabilize the real estate sector [35] Corporate Performance - The top eight construction SOEs reported a 3.9% YoY decline in revenue and a 9.8% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [54] - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) saw a 4.6% YoY increase in new contracts from January to November 2024 [64] Overseas Orders - Overseas orders for construction SOEs grew significantly, with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) reporting a 60.4% YoY increase in overseas contracts from January to November 2024 [80] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) saw a 99% YoY increase in overseas contracts during the same period [80] Debt Resolution and Fiscal Leverage - Local governments have issued approximately 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds to address hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong leading in issuance [85] - The debt resolution is expected to improve the financial health of construction companies and support valuation recovery [92]

Market Overview - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) underperformed during the period from December 30, 2024, to January 10, 2025, with the BSE 50 Index declining by 6.2% compared to the opening value on December 30, 2024 [6][16] - The total market capitalization of the BSE was 5359.4 billion yuan as of January 10, 2025, with 263 constituent stocks, of which 43 stocks rose, 0 remained flat, and 220 declined [6][16] - The average market capitalization of BSE A-shares was 20.4 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of 84.6 billion yuan for ChiNext and 110.3 billion yuan for the STAR Market [10][11] - The trading volume of the BSE during this period was 1261.3 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading volume of 4.8 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 48.9%, indicating improved liquidity compared to the previous period [10][11] New Listings and IPO Dynamics - One new stock, Xingtu CeKong (920116.BJ), was listed on the BSE during this period, with a significant first-day increase of 407.2% [13] - Xingtu CeKong, operating in the computer industry, specializes in aerospace measurement and control management and digital simulation, with a market capitalization of 5.39 billion yuan as of January 10, 2025 [13] - During this period, 34 companies updated their IPO review status, with 6 companies under inquiry, 1 company approved by the listing committee, 1 company registered, 5 companies terminated, 1 company submitted for registration, and 20 companies accepted [50][51] Sector Performance - The automotive sector performed relatively well, with a median sector increase of 2.5%, an improvement of 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous period [26] - The utilities sector underperformed, with a median sector decline of 8.0%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points compared to the previous period [26] - The media sector had the highest median P/E (TTM) of 1464.4x, a decrease of 104.6x from the previous period, while the defense sector had a negative median P/E (TTM) of -2.6x, an increase of 9.8x from the previous period [26] Fund Performance - BSE-themed funds underperformed during this period, with the best-performing fund, ChinaAMC BSE Innovation SME Selection Two-Year Regular Open Hybrid Fund, declining by 0.3%, underperforming the broader fund index by 0.8 percentage points [27][28] - BSE index funds also underperformed, with the best-performing fund, GF BSE 50 Index Fund C, declining by 2.1% [27][28] Corporate Announcements - Kaide Quartz (835179) reported strong growth in its semiconductor business, with significant orders for compound semiconductor quartz products and ongoing capacity expansion projects [33] - Fujitsu (835640) highlighted its competitive advantages in the satellite sector, including deep technical expertise and cost control capabilities, with expectations of significant growth in commercial satellite launches in 2025 [34] - Ruiqi Zhizao (833781) addressed capacity bottlenecks, with new production facilities under construction and a focus on expanding its nuclear energy market [35] - Suzhou Bearing (430418) noted minimal impact from the shift to new energy vehicles on its needle roller bearing business, with production lines operating at full capacity [36] - Zhongcao Spices (920016) emphasized its focus on the domestic market, with new production facilities expected to contribute to future growth [37] - Parallel Technology (839493) reported high GPU utilization rates of 80%-90% and ongoing optimization of its DeepSeek-V3 model [38] - Kerun Intelligent Control (834062) discussed its strategy for international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US, with a focus on cost advantages and market diversification [39] - Minshida (833394) highlighted growth opportunities in the honeycomb core material sector and plans to expand its overseas market presence [40] - Huifeng Diamond (839725) reported strong performance in its diamond micro-powder business, with significant revenue contributions from the photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors [41] - Xunan Technology (834950) emphasized its leading position in the personal protective equipment market and its partnerships with international manufacturers [42] - Guangsha Huanneng (873703) discussed the impact of the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" trend on its business and its participation in clean energy markets [43] - Haosheng Electronics (838701) reported a 24.7% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by recovery in the consumer electronics sector and increased sales to major customers [44]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The 2025 policy on large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement has been released, which is expected to further stimulate the automotive market [6] - The 2024 passenger car market achieved record highs in various indicators, with retail sales reaching 22.894 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [6] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw significant growth, with retail sales of 10.899 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [6] - The intelligent vehicle sector is expected to accelerate breakthroughs and development in 2025, with key technologies such as smart cockpits and autonomous driving being highlighted at the 2025 International Consumer Electronics Show [6] Market Performance - The SW automotive sector rose by 1.3% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.1% [6] - The automotive sector's PE (TTM) was 23x as of January 10, up 1% from the previous week [6] Policy Impact - The 2025 policy includes a 300 billion yuan special treasury bond fund allocated to local governments for key support policies, including car replacement and scrapping [6] - The policy expands the scope of scrapped vehicles and improves the subsidy standards for car replacement, which is expected to boost domestic car consumption [6] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on opportunities arising from the 2025 new car cycle and the continuation of the car replacement policy [6] - Pay attention to the opportunities brought by Robotaxi, Huawei's major cycle, and Xiaomi's new car launches [6] - Monitor the acceleration of intelligent vehicle breakthroughs and the inclusion of National IV trucks in the scrapping subsidy range, which will benefit the heavy truck industry [6] Sector Highlights Passenger Vehicles - In December 2024, passenger vehicle retail sales reached 2.635 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with annual retail sales hitting a record high of 22.894 million units [6] - Key companies to watch: BYD (002594), Geely Auto (0175.HK), SAIC Motor (600104), Changan Auto (000625), GAC Group (601238) [6] New Energy Vehicles - NEV retail sales in December 2024 were 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%, with annual retail sales reaching 10.899 million units [6] - Key companies to watch: BYD (002594), Geely Auto (0175.HK), Huayu Automotive (600741), Xinquan Automotive (603179), Duoli Technology (001311) [6] Intelligent Vehicles - The 2025 International Consumer Electronics Show highlighted smart cockpits and autonomous driving technologies, with Chinese automakers like Great Wall Motors, XPeng, and Zeekr showcasing their latest innovations [6] - Key companies to watch: Huawei-related companies (e.g., Seres (601127), BAIC BluePark (600733)), Tesla-related companies (e.g., Top Group (601689)), and Xiaomi-related companies (e.g., Desay SV (002920)) [6] Heavy Trucks - In December 2024, heavy truck wholesale sales were approximately 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, driven by the "scrap and replace" policy and export growth [6] - Key companies to watch: Weichai Power (2338.HK/000338), China National Heavy Duty Truck (3808.HK/000951), Tianrun Industrial (002283) [6] Market Trends - Raw material prices showed mixed trends last week, with steel prices down 1.9%, copper prices up 3%, and aluminum prices up 0.7% [21] - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was 4,413.8 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2024, down 24.0% year-on-year but up 0.4% month-on-month [21]

医疗创新器械-IVD专题一 集采当道，破局之路在何方？ 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年1月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 核心观点 1 体外诊断（IVD）：全球最大的医疗器械细分赛道。2023年全球IVD市场规模达1063亿美元，中国IVD市场 规模达1185亿元（出厂价），约占全球市场16%。根据检测地点，IVD主要分为院内、第三方实验室ICL和即 时检测，市场规模分别约为1000、400和300亿元，中国下游端IVD市场规模累计约1700亿元（终端价）。 全球IVD市场呈现4+X的竞争格局，即由4家龙头（罗氏、雅培、丹纳赫和西门子）和X家企业（illumina 、 赛默飞、生物梅里埃等）共同组成，4大龙头占据39%市场规模，国产市场则呈现中低端领域基本替代，高端 领域外资为主的竞争格局。 IVD集采回顾：核心品类基本纳入集采，集采规则趋于完整，设置保底降幅。截至2024年，IVD已进行5轮省 联盟集采，集采范围基本已覆盖核心品种和省市，预计每年节省采购资金超百亿元。1）生化试剂国产化率高， 竞争激烈，集采特 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 10 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.6-1.10） "两新"政策加力扩围，特朗普关税风声渐起 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：政府投资基金支持高质量发展，"两新"政策优化扩围。1月 3日-4日， 中国人民银行工作会议提出，实施适度宽松的货币政策，防范化解重点领域金 融风险，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，预计央行将通过降准、降息 适时释放流动性；6日，标普全球公布 2024年 12月财新服务业 PMI为 52.2%， 为 2024年 6月来最高，财新与官方的服务业 PMI 均反映在节假日需求及政策 带动下，国内服务业景气度回升；7 日，国务院办公厅印发《关于促进政府投 资基金高质量发展的指导意见》，提出 7 方面 25 条具体措施，为我国新质生 产力发展提供持续资金支持，并引导社会资源投向产业链关键领域以及新产业 培育上；8 日，国家发改委与财政部发布《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模 设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，对设备更新以及消费品以旧换新政 策进行了优化和扩围，有望持续带动国内相关 ...

Inflation Trends - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, consistent with market expectations[2] - The annual CPI for 2024 increased by 0.2%, the same as in 2023, indicating two consecutive years of low inflation volatility[2] - Core CPI year-on-year growth expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4% in December 2024, but remained low[2] Food and Non-Food Prices - December food prices shifted from a 1% increase to a 0.5% decrease, marking the first decline in six months[2] - Non-food prices changed from flat to a 0.2% increase year-on-year in December[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables and 7 fruits turned from an increase to a decrease in early January 2025[2] Supply and Demand Factors - Weather conditions contributed to increased supply, leading to a significant reduction in fresh vegetable price growth by 9.5 percentage points to 0.5% year-on-year[2] - Pork prices rose by 12.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points due to ample supply[2] - The average wholesale price of pork saw a reduction in year-on-year growth, while egg prices experienced an increase[2] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3% in December, with a reduction in the decline rate by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The annual PPI for 2024 decreased by 2.2%, an improvement from a 3% decline in 2023[4] - Major industries with the highest price increases included non-ferrous metal mining and smelting, with increases of 13.2% and 6.4% respectively[4] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise in January 2025 due to increased demand for food during the winter holidays and the upcoming Spring Festival[5] - The annual CPI growth for 2025 is projected to rebound to 1%-1.5% due to continued expansionary policies[5] - The PPI is anticipated to stabilize in January 2025, with a forecasted annual decline narrowing to around 0.5%[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.90 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 34.26 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in management training, emphasizing high dividends and shareholder returns. It has shown robust performance with a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by a strong demand in the corporate training sector and a strategic focus on large clients [6][24]. - The company has a solid financial outlook, with projected revenue growth and net profit increases over the next few years, supported by a sustainable business model and a focus on high-quality training services [6][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Action Education Technology Co., Ltd., has been deeply engaged in the management education sector since its establishment in 2006, evolving through various stages of development [17][18]. - It offers a range of services including corporate management training, consulting, and related educational products, with a focus on practical and effective management solutions [20][21]. Industry Analysis - The corporate training industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size increase to 1.3 trillion CNY by 2025, driven by strong demand and supportive government policies [31][34]. - The industry is characterized by a fragmented market with numerous specialized institutions, creating opportunities for companies like Action Education to establish a competitive edge through differentiated services [38][42]. Business Model - The company employs a "one core, two wings" business model, focusing on management training as its core service while also offering consulting and investment services [45]. - It has successfully implemented a prepayment model for its training services, leading to a significant increase in contract liabilities, which are expected to convert into revenue as training sessions are conducted [29][49]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with net profits projected at 2.64 billion CNY, 3.04 billion CNY, and 3.60 billion CNY respectively [6][24]. - The management training business has maintained a high gross margin, with the latest figures showing a margin of 83.6% for the first half of 2024 [26]. Competitive Landscape - The corporate training market is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants and a growing number of businesses seeking training services, which enhances the overall market potential [34][38]. - Action Education is positioned in the top tier of the industry, leveraging its brand strength and high-quality training offerings to capture market share [42][45].