[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（12.30-1.3） 以旧换新政策延续，汽车智能化加速突破 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -19% -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 汽车 沪深300 | 数据来源：聚源数据 | | --- | [Table_Report] 1. 汽车行业周报（12.23-12.27）：全国新 能源充电桩数同比+50%，利好新能源渗 透率提升 (2024-12-30) 2. 汽车行业 2025 年投资策略：电动智能与 机器人共舞，行业周期加速向上 (2024-12-24) 3. 汽车行业周报（12.16-12.20）：预计 12 月乘用车零售 270 万辆，新能源渗透率 可达 51.9% (2024-12-23) 4. 汽车行业周报（12.9-12.13）：11 月新 能源渗透率达 52.3%，以旧换新带动乘 用车销售量超 520 万辆 (2024-12-16 ...

[2025 Table_IndustryInfo 年 01 月 04 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（12.30-1.3） 创新药械政策发布，年度持续看好创新+出海主线 2025 年围绕新质生产力和高质量发展大背景，看好医药创新+出海、主题投 资、红利三大主线。 创新+出海主线——创新药：政策端，2024 年 7 月国常会审议通过《全链条 支持创新药发展实施方案》，创新药作为新质生产力之一，顶层设计方案有望 助推创新药快速发展。2024 年 11 月末，创新药医保谈判成功率达 90%以 上，医保强调支持"真创新"药物的政策导向。2024 年 11 月，国家医保局发 文提到引导商保更多支持包容创新药耗和器械，未来支付端商保发展空间值得 关注。研发端，SKB264、AK112 等于 WCLC/ASCO 会议发布肺癌适应症出 色临床数据，国产创新持续亮相；出海方面，2024 年国产新药授权出海百花 齐放，二代 IO、减肥药、自免 TCE、ADC、新机制、新适应症等热点频出。 恒瑞医药以 NewCo 模式实现 GLP-1 产品组合授权出海，交易总金额超 60 亿 美元。医疗器械：随着第五批国采 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1230-0105） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary 行情回顾：本周（] 12月 30日-01月 05日）机器人指数跑赢大盘。中证机器人 指数下跌 8.9%，跑输上证指数 3.4个百分点，跑输沪深 300指数 3.8个百分点， 跑输创业板指 0.4 个百分点。 智元开源百万真机数据集，加速人形机器人训练。12月 30日，智元机器人携 手上海人工智能实验室、国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心以及上海库帕思， 重磅发布全球首个基于全域真实场景、全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真 机数据集开源项目 AgiBot World。AgiBot World是全球首个基于全域真实场景、 全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真机数据集。相比 Google 开源的 Open X-Embodiment 数据集，AgiBot World 长程数据规模高出 10倍，场景范围覆 盖面扩大 100 倍，数据质量从实验室级上升到工业级标准。 乐聚年产 200台人形机器 ...

投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -24% -14% -4% 6% 16% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 机械设备 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 439 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 32,008.70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 31,073.83 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 28.9 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（12.30-1.3） 央行持续释放流动性，俄罗斯又断供天然气 摘要 1. 制造业平稳收官，非制造业超预期改善 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 (2025-01-02) 2. 地方专项债管理优化，美国政府再次避 免停摆 (2024-12-27) 3. 加强央企市值管理，美联储降息但放鹰 (2024-12-21) 4. 地产销售同比转涨，消费增速边际回落 ——11 月经济数据点评 (2024-12-17) 5. 直接融资持续支撑社融，化债及购房推 升 M1——11 月社融数据点评 (2024-12-14) 6. 加强超常规逆周期调节，美国 CPI 符合 预期 (2024-12-13) 7. 城市加快智能化发展，美联储降息或更 谨慎 (2024-12-08) 8. 数字化加快推进，"关税威胁"拉响警 报 (2024-11-29) 9. 推进国资"三个集中"，特朗普提名陆 续出炉 (2024-11-22) 10.国内居民消费改善，美联储降息不必匆 忙 (2024-11-15) 0 197 4 [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech (0013.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.90, while the current price is HKD 23.40 [1]. Core Insights - Hutchison China MediTech has announced the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals for USD 608 million (RMB 4.478 billion) to focus on innovative drug development. The proceeds will be used to further develop its internal product pipeline, particularly its next-generation antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform [7]. - The NDA for Savolitinib in combination with Osimertinib for treating MET-amplified NSCLC has been accepted and prioritized for review in China, indicating significant progress in addressing resistance issues in EGFR inhibitors [7]. - The commercialization of Fuzuloparib in the U.S. has been successful, with expected sales of USD 130 million in the first half of 2024, and it has been included in healthcare insurance in Spain and Japan, enhancing its commercial prospects [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Hutchison China MediTech are USD 642.07 million in 2024, USD 736.97 million in 2025, and USD 884.99 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of -23.38%, 14.78%, and 20.09% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -USD 17.24 million in 2024, USD 74.51 million in 2025, and USD 134.20 million in 2026, with growth rates of -117.10%, 532.22%, and 80.12% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -USD 0.02 in 2024, USD 0.09 in 2025, and USD 0.15 in 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 40.81 CNY for the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic power distribution market, benefiting from the ongoing upgrade of smart grid infrastructure driven by distributed renewable energy integration [45][46]. - The overseas business is expanding, with significant orders expected in 2024, particularly in the distribution sector, indicating a shift from the consumption side to the distribution side [19][46]. - The medical segment is experiencing stable growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% in the domestic rehabilitation medical market from 2020 to 2023 [16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in two main segments: smart power distribution and medical services, with a well-established international presence [61]. - It has a strong production and R&D capability globally, with manufacturing bases in Brazil, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, and Mexico, contributing to 17% of its revenue from overseas [61]. Domestic Power Distribution - The company secured a total of 760 million CNY in bids for smart meters in 2024, achieving a market share of 6.2% [15]. - It ranks first in market share for distribution transformers in both State Grid and Southern Grid, benefiting from the smart grid upgrade [15]. Overseas Business - The company has established five overseas production bases, enhancing its ability to meet demand and stabilize market share [19]. - In 2024, the company expects to receive orders worth 1.8 billion CNY from overseas markets, with a notable breakthrough in Europe and Mexico [19]. Medical Segment - The company has expanded its medical services by adding six hospitals in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 34 hospitals [16]. - The CAGR for medical revenue from 2016 to 2023 is 24.4%, indicating robust growth potential [16]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 14.76 billion CNY, 17.98 billion CNY, and 21.31 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 22.6%, 25.4%, and 24.2% [46]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY from the power distribution segment and 600 million CNY from the medical segment by 2025 [46].

2025 年 01 月 02 日 证券研究报告•金融工程动态报告 央国企量化策略系列 央国企量化选股优选策略与 1 月组合 ——央国企量化选股月度跟踪 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑琳琳 执业证号：S1250522110001 邮箱：zhengll@swsc.com.cn 分析师：盛宝丹 执业证号：S1250524070001 邮箱：sbdyf@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 结合央国企特性，从分红、估值、波动、情绪、公司业绩、抗风险能力、ESG 等 7个维度筛选出在国企中选股表现优异的因子，对国企进行综合打分构建组 合。 在沪深 A股全部国企中，优选 20只股票作为组合持仓，月度换仓。2016年至 今，组合年化收益率 15.28%，相对中证国企指数年化超额收益率 10.84%，2023 年至今累计收益率 58.24%，2024年至今累计收益率 31.11%。2025 年 1月"央 国企优选"组合：渤海轮渡、云天化、绿色动力、佛燃能源等。 "一带一路+国企"中，优选 10只股票。2016年至今，组合年化收益率 18.51%， 相对中证一带 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025: innovation, international expansion, and thematic investments [8]. - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced a decline of 0.38% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.74 percentage points, while the biopharmaceutical sector fell by 2.12% [8][21]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector rose by 0.66%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 1.21 percentage points [51]. - The XBI index decreased by 0.61% this week, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% over the past six months [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 38 stocks in the innovative drug sector rose, while 70 stocks fell during the last week of December [47]. - The top three gainers were Heptares Therapeutics-B (+34.33%), Terns Pharmaceuticals-B (+17.65%), and Double-Crane Pharmaceutical (+10.76%) [47]. - The top three decliners were Chuangsheng Group-B (-13.64%), Lepu Biopharma-B (-11.74%), and Yipin Hong (-9.81%) [47]. 2. Drug Approval Progress - In December, 11 new drugs were approved in China, with no new indications approved this week [28][61]. - The U.S. saw five NDA approvals and four BLA approvals in December, but no approvals were reported this week [30][61]. - Europe and Japan reported no new innovative drug approvals in December [33][83]. 3. Clinical Trials and Drug Development - The report indicates that there are currently 11 GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs approved for diabetes, with three in the NDA stage and nine in Phase III clinical trials [14]. - For obesity, three GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs are approved, with one in the NDA stage and six in Phase III clinical trials [15]. 4. Sales Performance - The report notes that sales for the drug Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) reached $5.163 billion in 2023, reflecting a 970.1% increase [20]. - The combined sales of Semaglutide products reached $21.157 billion in 2023, with significant growth in both diabetes and weight loss indications [46].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from November, but still above the expansion threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for Q4 is 50.2%, significantly higher than Q3's 49.4%, indicating a shift into the expansion zone[1] - The new orders index rose to 51%, reflecting continued demand growth, while the production index decreased to 52.1%[1] Employment and Business Expectations - The employment index for December fell to 48.1%, indicating a stable job market but below the expansion threshold[1] - Business activity expectations index decreased to 53.3%, yet remains optimistic about future operations[1] Import and Export Trends - New export orders index is at 48.3%, while the import index increased to 49.3%, both remaining below the critical line[1] - The import index has surpassed the new export orders index for the first time since February, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics[1] Price Indices and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index dropped to 48.2%, continuing a contraction trend for two months, while the factory price index fell to 46.7%[3] - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.9%, marking 22 consecutive months below the expansion line, suggesting ongoing low inventory levels[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, exceeding market expectations and indicating robust growth in the sector[16] - The service industry index increased to 52%, with significant growth in sectors like air transport and financial services[16] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support domestic demand in 2024[1] - Continued policy support is expected to bolster the consumer goods sector, with a focus on enhancing consumption and technological innovation[16]