Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from November, but still above the expansion threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for Q4 is 50.2%, significantly higher than Q3's 49.4%, indicating a shift into the expansion zone[1] - The new orders index rose to 51%, reflecting continued demand growth, while the production index decreased to 52.1%[1] Employment and Business Expectations - The employment index for December fell to 48.1%, indicating a stable job market but below the expansion threshold[1] - Business activity expectations index decreased to 53.3%, yet remains optimistic about future operations[1] Import and Export Trends - New export orders index is at 48.3%, while the import index increased to 49.3%, both remaining below the critical line[1] - The import index has surpassed the new export orders index for the first time since February, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics[1] Price Indices and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index dropped to 48.2%, continuing a contraction trend for two months, while the factory price index fell to 46.7%[3] - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.9%, marking 22 consecutive months below the expansion line, suggesting ongoing low inventory levels[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, exceeding market expectations and indicating robust growth in the sector[16] - The service industry index increased to 52%, with significant growth in sectors like air transport and financial services[16] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support domestic demand in 2024[1] - Continued policy support is expected to bolster the consumer goods sector, with a focus on enhancing consumption and technological innovation[16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Insights - The economic growth in Chongqing is robust, with a GDP growth rate of 6.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, positioning it second nationally, indicating significant future growth potential [1]. - The bank benefits from a relatively low mortgage exposure of 9.6%, below the average of listed banks, and is expected to see a notable support for its interest margin due to the upcoming repricing of high-interest deposits [1]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has been consistently declining, reaching 1.26% as of Q3 2024, down by 0.08 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The bank is well-positioned in Chongqing, with a balanced shareholding structure where the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is the largest shareholder, holding 25.7% [15]. - The management team has extensive experience in the local market, which aids in executing regional development strategies [25]. Section 2: Economic and Strategic Advantages - Chongqing is a key national center city with significant strategic advantages, including a strong economic growth trajectory and supportive policies that enhance market potential [48][54]. - The bank is actively involved in the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, contributing over 130 billion yuan in credit support in 2023 [56]. Section 3: Business Operations - The bank's total assets have shown stable growth, reaching 824.1 billion yuan by Q3 2024, with a projected path towards a trillion yuan in the coming years [60]. - The loan-to-deposit ratio has been increasing, with corporate loans making up a growing share of the bank's portfolio, reflecting its focus on supporting local enterprises [71]. Section 4: Financial Performance - The bank's interest margin is expected to remain stable due to its low mortgage exposure and the anticipated repricing of deposits [1][4]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a decrease in new non-performing loans, which is likely to enhance return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery [2]. Section 5: Future Outlook - The bank is expected to benefit from the ongoing economic development in Chongqing, with policies aimed at reducing debt burdens and enhancing growth potential [62][63]. - The bank's technology investments are increasing, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) with a target price of 7.39 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive macroeconomic policies and the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, which are expected to boost overall credit demand in Chongqing, allowing Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank to steadily expand its balance sheet [2][71]. - The bank's loan-to-total-assets ratio is currently at 46.8%, significantly lower than the industry average of 57.2%, indicating potential for optimizing asset structure to mitigate the negative effects of interest rate cuts on income from interest-earning assets [2]. - The bank has a strong cost advantage with a deposit interest rate of only 1.8%, which is 18 basis points lower than its peers, contributing to its competitive position [2][12]. - The bank has actively written off non-performing loans, resulting in improved asset quality, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing from 1.3% in 2020 to 1.2% in Q3 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, established in 1951, has grown to become the largest rural commercial bank in China by asset size, with total assets reaching 15,174.67 billion CNY as of Q3 2024 [22][48]. - The bank has a robust shareholder structure, with the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding a 31.02% stake [26][52]. Asset and Liability Management - The bank's total assets have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2020 to 2023 [48]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is 1.2%, ranking second among listed rural commercial banks, while its provision coverage ratio stands at 358.6% [30][57]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts the bank's book value per share (BVPS) to be 10.97 CNY in 2024, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.54, 0.51, and 0.48 for 2024-2026 [14]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 8.31%, which is in line with the industry average [31][34]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The bank has a significant market presence in Chongqing, with a county-level deposit market share of 32.2% as of 2023, supported by a wide network of 1,741 branches [12][74]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is expected to enhance credit demand, particularly in the public sector, benefiting the bank's growth trajectory [71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the livestock sector, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Lihua Agricultural (300761) [79][83][87]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is focusing on the transition of breeding prosperity, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement as key priorities. The national breeding sow inventory was 39.86 million heads at the end of April 2024, a decrease of 9.2% from the peak in 2023, marking a four-year low. As of October 2024, the inventory was 40.73 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [6][8]. - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with growth potential in the pet health market. The pet consumption market is expected to grow by 7.5% in 2024, reaching 300.2 billion yuan, with significant growth in the pet vaccine segment [60][73]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The focus is on the transition of breeding prosperity, with a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory and a cautious industry outlook due to previous losses. The profitability of enterprises is emphasized, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [6][49]. - The average price of live pigs increased from 14.2 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 20.4 yuan/kg in August 2024, but fell below 16 yuan/kg by December 20, 2024 [12][56]. - The industry is facing high asset-liability ratios, which limit capacity growth. The overall debt ratio increased from 53.5% in early 2021 to 68.3% in Q3 2023, although it improved to 60.6% by Q3 2024 [19][20]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health index shows a lag compared to pig prices and breeding indices, but there are signs of recovery in revenue and profitability for many animal health companies in Q3 2024. The market for pet vaccines is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing number of pets and the domestic market's expansion [7][71]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic alternatives in the pet pharmaceutical market, with several companies gaining approval for new products, indicating a shift away from reliance on imported products [63][65]. Key Investment Targets - Muyuan Foods is noted for its cost advantages and improved production metrics, with a projected EPS of 2.31 yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 17 times [79]. - Wens Foodstuff Group is expected to achieve significant growth in both pig and chicken production, with a projected EPS of 1.19 yuan for 2024 [83]. - Lihua Agricultural is anticipated to turn profitable in 2024, with a projected EPS of 1.85 yuan, benefiting from low production costs and increased market demand [87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, indicating that the overall return for the industry is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the relevant market indices over the next six months [10][92]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a decline of 7.22% this week, underperforming the ChiNext by approximately 7.01 percentage points and the broader market by about 8.58 percentage points [10][11]. - The box office for the week of December 23 to December 29, 2024, reached 620 million yuan, with the film "Little Me" leading at 200 million yuan, accounting for 32.2% of the total box office [18][39]. - The report highlights the performance of various films and television shows, noting that the top five TV variety shows by broadcast index include "Run, Tea Horse Road" and "Voice of Life: Greater Bay Area Season" [24][66]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector's performance was generally weak, with significant underperformance compared to major indices [10][11]. - The gaming index also saw a decline of 5.62%, while the education index dropped by 9.75% [14][38]. Film Industry - The top films for the week included "Little Me," "Murder 3," and "Misjudgment," with respective box office earnings of 200 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 68.95 million yuan [18][39]. - Upcoming films include "Cheating You" and "Paddington Bear 3," which are expected to attract significant audience interest [22][69]. Television and Variety Shows - The top five variety shows by broadcast index were "Now Departing Season 2," "Goodbye Lover Season 4," and "Run, Tea Horse Road," indicating strong viewer engagement [24][66]. - The report also notes the performance of various dramas, with "Nine重紫" leading the index [42][43]. Gaming Industry - The report mentions upcoming game releases and highlights the importance of monitoring new titles for potential investment opportunities [50][71]. - The gaming sector continues to show robust activity, with several new games set to launch [50][71].

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral rating for the automotive industry, indicating that the overall return in the next six months is expected to be between -10% and 10% relative to the benchmark index [40]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant increase in retail sales, with a reported 1.692 million passenger vehicles sold from December 1 to 22, marking a year-on-year growth of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [12]. - The wholesale of passenger vehicles during the same period reached 1.770 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 1% [12]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with retail sales of 817,000 units from December 1 to 22, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [20]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies and the growing infrastructure for NEVs, including a 50% year-on-year increase in the number of charging stations, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of NEVs [82]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as of December 27 is reported at 25 times, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [6]. - The report includes a detailed analysis of the sales performance of major automotive manufacturers for November, indicating a competitive market landscape [45]. 2. Industry News - The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized the development of smart connected vehicles and international cooperation in new energy vehicles [13]. - DeepWay completed a Series B financing round of 750 million yuan to enhance its research and development in electric and intelligent heavy trucks [13]. - GAC Honda's new energy factory has commenced production with an annual capacity of 120,000 vehicles [14]. 3. Company Highlights - Changan Automobile is focusing on technological innovation, with a commitment to invest at least 5% of its revenue in R&D annually [15]. - Weichai Power maintains its leading position in the heavy truck engine market, with significant growth potential in smart logistics and hydrogen fuel cell businesses [56]. - BYD is highlighted as a key player benefiting from the expected increase in sales due to the upcoming new vehicle cycles and trade-in policies [51]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the upcoming new vehicle cycles and the continuation of trade-in policies, which are expected to create investment opportunities in the automotive sector [51]. - It also recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of heavy trucks and those benefiting from the transition to national IV emission standards [52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 58.40 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [10]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of automotive interior and exterior parts, with a strong focus on passenger vehicles, which now account for 85% of its revenue [20][30]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, with significant growth in its exterior parts business, which saw a revenue increase of 247% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [20]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with production bases established in Malaysia and Mexico, and subsidiaries in the United States and Slovakia [50]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 28.8% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with EPS estimates of 2.19, 2.92, and 3.54 yuan for the respective years [10]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.605 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, and a net profit of 686 million yuan, up 22.2% [30]. - The company's revenue growth has been robust, with a 3-year CAGR of 42.2% and a net profit CAGR of 46.2% from 2021 to 2023 [30]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the passenger vehicle segment, with major clients including Geely, BYD, and Chery, and the top five customers accounted for 71% of total revenue in 2023 [20][30]. - The automotive interior industry is characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for growth as domestic brands rise [38]. - The report highlights the potential for further growth in the exterior parts segment, which currently represents only 3.8% of total revenue [20]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a total market capitalization of 22.338 billion yuan, with a total asset value of 14.671 billion yuan [22]. - The report provides a relative valuation analysis, indicating a dynamic PE of 21, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Buy" rating for several companies including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 恩华药业 (Enhua Pharmaceutical), 亿帆医药 (Yifan Pharmaceutical), 上海医药 (Shanghai Pharmaceuticals), and others [17][15][24]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical industry index decreased by 1.91% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.27 percentage points, ranking 23rd in industry performance [11]. - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical industry has declined by 12.33%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 28.36 percentage points, ranking 31st [11]. - The current valuation level (PE-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 26.95 times, with a premium of 75.49% relative to all A-shares [11]. - The report highlights the IVD market's potential for increased concentration due to centralized procurement, suggesting a focus on subsequent bidding results [35]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes for 2025: innovation and international expansion, thematic investments, and dividend stocks [12]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and their development, particularly in light of supportive policies and successful negotiations for reimbursement [36]. - The report also suggests monitoring the performance of domestic substitutes in the medical device sector as procurement policies evolve [35]. Market Performance - The best-performing sub-sector this week was blood products, which increased by 0.4%, while the top three sectors since the beginning of the year are pharmaceutical distribution, chemical preparations, and raw materials, with respective changes of +0.6%, -2.3%, and -3.7% [11]. Recommended Combinations - The report lists a robust combination of stocks including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 荣昌生物 (Rongchang Biotech), and others, indicating strong growth potential [15][24]. - A separate Hong Kong stock combination is also provided, featuring companies like 和黄医药 (Hutchison China MediTech) and 康方生物 (CanSino Biologics) [16]. Recent News and Policies - The report notes the release of procurement rules in Anhui province, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape for domestic manufacturers in the IVD market [22][35]. - It also highlights the increasing success rate of innovative drug negotiations with insurance, reaching over 90% [36].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" with an expected overall return between -5% and 5% over the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in humanoid and quadruped robots, showcasing products like Unitree B2-W and PUDU D9, which demonstrate superior mobility and operational capabilities [31][60]. - The report emphasizes the potential for quadruped robots to achieve mass production more quickly than humanoid robots due to lower hardware and software barriers, with applications in various industrial and domestic scenarios [31]. - The report notes the ongoing development of humanoid robots, including the introduction of PM01 and GoMate, which feature advanced mobility structures and self-developed core components, enhancing their adaptability and efficiency [34][37]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robot index underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.6%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.6 percentage points [54]. Industry Dynamics - Unitree showcased its quadruped robot, Unitree B2-W, which exhibited impressive control capabilities in various challenging environments [31]. - PUDU D9, a humanoid robot, was launched with 42 degrees of freedom and advanced sensory capabilities, aimed at achieving natural human-robot interaction [60]. - The report mentions the completion of a 150 million yuan angel round financing by MagicLab, which focuses on general-purpose robots and embodied intelligence technology [17]. Key Companies and Products - The report lists several key companies involved in the humanoid robot hardware sector, including Best (300580), Wuzhou Xinchun (603667), and others, highlighting their roles in the supply chain [4]. - GoMate, developed by GAC Group, features a unique variable wheeled-foot structure, enhancing its stability and energy efficiency by over 80% compared to similar products [37]. - PM01, a lightweight and dynamic humanoid robot, is designed for various applications and is priced at 88,000 yuan, making it accessible for both commercial and educational purposes [34][35].

（2）韩国：12 月前 20 日出口保持正增长，但按开工日数算日均出口增速小幅下滑 当地时间 12 月 23 日，韩国关税厅发布的初步核实数据显示，韩国 12 月前 20 天出口 额为 403.1 亿美元，较去年同期的 377.3 亿美元相比增长了 6.8%；进口额为 389.53 亿美元， 同比增加 7.5%；贸易收支实现 13.5 亿美元顺差。 点评：韩国 12 月以来的开工日数为 16 天，较去年同期增加 0.5 天，按开工日数计算的 日均出口额为 25.2 亿美元，同比增长 3.5%，略低于 11 月全月初步报告的 3.7%增幅。分产 品来看，作为主要出口产品的半导体，韩国本月前 20 日出口激增 23.4%，达到 82.11 亿美 元，出口占同期全国总出口的 20.4%，比去年同期增长了 2.7 个百分点，但增速较 11 月前 20 日的 42.5%大幅走低。此外，钢铁产品出口增长 11.7%至 27.93 亿美元，电脑周边设备 出口激增 79.7%，乘用车出口同比下降 0.2%至 37.31 亿美元，石油产品出口下降 14.6%。 分地区来看，韩国对美国的出口增长 6%，至 80.12 亿美元；对 ...