16 March 2025 | 6:50PM EDT US Economics Analyst March FOMC Preview: On the Sidelines (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | els ...

17 March 2025 | 2:55AM HKT Navigating China Internet What to expect & key investor focuses into mega-caps Tencent, Meituan & PDD prints With Tencent, Meituan and PDD reporting this week, we expect solid 4Q24 results on the back of healthy goods/services consumption trends in the quarter (GSe: Tencent/Meituan/PDD top line growth of +8%/+19%/+24% yoy and adj. group EBIT growth of +22%/+405%/+11% yoy, respectively), while management commentaries on 2025 outlook/direction of 2025E EPS revisions will be key, giv ...

17 March 2025 | 2:54AM HKT Alibaba Group (BABA) Addressing key debates on Alibaba Cloud capex targets and outlook; Buy | BABA | 12m Price Target: $160.00 | Price: $141.10 | Upside: 13.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9988.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$156.00 | Price: HK$135.80 | Upside: 14.9% | The key investor focuses/debates following Alibaba's three-year capex target uplift and share price outperformance (+66%YTD vs. HSTECH +35%) have centered around the potential returns of its anticipated spending, and cap ...

(https://publishing.gs.com) Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates Singapore Trip Notes – March 2025 | GS EM Marketstrats We were in Singapore seeing macro and corporate clients last week, with below key takeaways: Waning US exceptionalism view dominates, and clients see DXY hard to go higher. A combination of heightened policy uncertainty concern, expensive valuations in US asset, brighter stories elsewhere (Europe and China), clients agree that there is demand to diversify away from US assets. Many cl ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for US equities, with a lowered year-end 2025 S&P 500 index target from 6500 to 6200, reflecting a downgrade in US growth forecasts [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift from US exceptionalism to a more favorable outlook for European and emerging market equities, driven by a significant valuation gap and expected growth from increased European defense spending [2][4]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.7% from 2.4%, influenced by an anticipated rise in the average US tariff rate by 10 percentage points [1][5]. - European equities are expected to outperform, with revised EPS growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 increased to 4%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The average US tariff rate is projected to rise by 10 percentage points this year, significantly impacting GDP growth forecasts [1][5]. - The S&P 500 has entered correction territory, reflecting market adjustments to lower growth expectations [1][2]. European Economic Outlook - European equities are anticipated to continue their strong performance due to a large valuation gap compared to US equities and increased defense spending [2][4]. - The report notes positive developments in fiscal policy from the EU Council and Germany, supporting the outlook for European markets [2][4]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests that both China and broader emerging market equities have shown relative strength this year, with potential for further gains [2][4].

Investment Ratings - Vanchip: Neutral [3][7] - NSIG: Sell [10][15] - Sanan: Sell [20][24] Core Insights - Vanchip is expanding its product lines and market share in the Chinese smartphone sector, despite a significant decline in net income and revenue in 4Q24 [2][3] - NSIG is facing pricing pressure due to modest end demand and high depreciation costs from previous capacity expansions, leading to a net loss in 4Q24 [10][13] - Sanan is transitioning to SiC production and expanding its compound semiconductors business, but growth may take time to offset declines in its legacy LED business [20][21] Vanchip Summary - 4Q24 net income was Rmb3 million, down 95% YoY, with revenue at Rmb611 million, a 55% YoY decline but a 45% QoQ increase [3][4] - The company announced a Rmb350 million capital increase to support R&D for high-performance RF modules [3][4] - Earnings estimates for 2024 have been revised down, with a target price maintained at Rmb49.1 based on a 29x 2025E target PE [7][9] NSIG Summary - 4Q24 net loss was Rmb434 million, with revenues of Rmb909 million, reflecting a 14% YoY increase but a 9% miss against expectations [10][11] - The earnings decline is attributed to a slower-than-expected recovery in the wafer industry and high fixed costs from capacity expansion [10][13] - Net income estimates for 2025-27E have been revised down by 5% to 10% due to lower revenues and higher depreciation [15][19] Sanan Summary - Sanan has started 8-inch SiC production with a weekly capacity of 500 units, but growth in this area is expected to take time [20][21] - The company is focusing on expanding its compound semiconductors business and transitioning to Mini/Micro LED technologies [20][21] - Net income estimates for 2024 have been revised up by 14% to Rmb543 million, while 2025-26E net incomes have been adjusted down by 2% due to increased R&D expenses [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL (300750.SZ) with a target price of Rmb367.00, indicating an upside potential of 40.1% from the current price of Rmb262.00 [1][16]. Core Insights - CATL's 2024 earnings were in line with expectations, reporting a revenue of Rmb362.0 billion, down 10% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb50.7 billion, up 15% year-on-year [1]. - The weakness in unit gross profit (GP) in 4Q24 is attributed to product mix volatility, with expectations for recovery in subsequent quarters as the product mix improves [2][20]. - The company announced a cash dividend of Rmb25.4 billion for 2024, implying a payout ratio of approximately 50%, which is expected to be sustainable, providing dividend yields of around 3% to 6% from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - CATL's implied 4Q24 revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 14% year-on-year [1]. - The company revised down its net profit forecasts by 4% to 5% for 2025-2027, primarily due to US tariffs and increased R&D expenses, but still remains 19% to 42% above consensus estimates [5][17]. Market Position and Outlook - CATL has underperformed its peers year-to-date, but potential stock drivers include strong monthly battery shipments, unit GP expansion, and stronger-than-expected demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the EU [4]. - The report highlights that CATL's unit GP is expected to recover in 2025, supported by a sustainable product mix improvement and cost savings from higher utilization rates [20]. Key Data and Valuation - The market capitalization of CATL is Rmb1.1 trillion (approximately $158.8 billion), with an enterprise value of Rmb888.9 billion (approximately $123.0 billion) [6]. - The report provides forecasts for revenue growth, estimating a total revenue of Rmb477.9 billion in 2025, with a projected EBITDA of Rmb107.9 billion [6][15]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15x, 10.9x, and 8.7x, compared to a historical average of 33x, indicating that CATL is currently trading at cyclical lows [17].

Investment Ratings - Arista Networks Inc (ANET): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [16] - Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $63 [17] - Dell Technologies (DELL): Buy with a 12-month target price of $145 [18] - F5 Inc (FFIV): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $295 [19] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI): Neutral with a 12-month target price of $40 [20] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE): Not Rated [21] - Juniper Networks (JNPR): Not Rated [22] Core Insights - The AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow robustly through 2028, with AI servers projected to reach $335 billion by 2028, reflecting a 31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 [4][7] - AI data center switching is anticipated to grow at a 41% CAGR, reaching $22 billion by 2028, with significant growth in back end Ethernet and front end Ethernet segments [3][10] - Traditional server estimates remain largely unchanged, with a slight upward revision of 4% on average for 2025/26 and a downward revision of 4% for 2027/28 [13] AI Data Center Market Outlook - AI server market growth is expected to be driven by hyperscaler customers at an 18% CAGR, Tier 2 Cloud at 58% CAGR, and enterprise at 48% CAGR [4][7] - The AI switching market is projected to grow at a 33% CAGR for hyperscalers, 45% CAGR for Tier 2 Cloud, and 58% CAGR for enterprise [3][7] - The overall AI data center market is expected to reach $334.5 billion by 2028, with traditional data center infrastructure showing more muted growth [7] Company-Specific Insights - Arista Networks (ANET) is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in data and digital transformation, with 43% of its 2023 revenue from cloud spending [23] - Cisco Systems (CSCO) remains a market leader but has faced market share losses due to competition from lower-cost providers [24] - Dell Technologies (DELL) is expected to benefit from AI server demand and a resurgence in PC trends, positioning itself as a key IT partner [27] - F5 Inc (FFIV) is diversifying its offerings to include security and observability features, which may offset mixed demand for its legacy products [29] - Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) is positioned as a leading AI infrastructure company, benefiting from partnerships with major suppliers [30]

Investment Rating - The report provides a rating distribution with 48% classified as Buy, 34% as Hold, and 18% as Sell globally [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance metrics of specific companies, including Baosteel, Angang-H, and Maanshan-H, with Baosteel showing a unit gross profit of 499 RMB/t and an implied PE of 75 [11]. - Angang-H has a negative EPS of (2.035) million RMB, indicating financial challenges, while Maanshan-H shows a positive EPS of 1.550 million RMB with an implied PE of 8.8 [11]. - The report notes significant changes in EPS and valuation for these companies, with Baosteel experiencing a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit and a 23% change in share price [11]. Company Summaries - Baosteel: Unit GP of 499 RMB/t, EPS of 0.997 RMB/share, and an implied PE of 75. The company saw a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit and a 23% change in share price [11]. - Angang-H: Unit GP of 46 RMB/t, negative EPS of (0.216) RMB/share, and not applicable implied PE. The company experienced a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit with a 78% change in share price [11]. - Maanshan-H: Unit GP of 222 RMB/t, EPS of 0.201 RMB/share, and an implied PE of 8.8. The company also saw a 100 RMB/t increase in unit gross profit with a 63% change in share price [11].

2025年3月13日 | 8:47PM GMT 欧洲经济日评: 法国 - 分析国防支出增加对于经济和财政的 影响 Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 |ari.stehn@gs.com 高盛国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 高盛国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 james.r.moberly@gs.com 高盛国际 Niklas Garnadt +44(20)7051-7722 niklas.garnadt@gs.com 高盛国际 现在预计法国的借贷利率约为4%，这意味着未来几年法国的利率-增速差将明显恶 化。因此，稳定债务与GDP之比所需的基本财政收支将从GDP的0%增加到1%左 右,而这是法国在战后时期很少能够达到的水平。有鉴于此，我们预计到2030年 代初,政府债务与GD ...