Researco 2025年3月9日 | 7:38PM HKT 资料来源: MSCI,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部 中国市场寻思 审视中国牛市的韧性 1. 中国股市迎来史上最强"开门红", MSCI中国指数年初至今已上涨19%，分别跑赢 发达/新兴市场指数18个/14个百分点。从谷底到峰值高达29%的涨幅在历史上排名第 三，仅次于全球金融危机和疫情重新放开之后的市场反弹幅度。多个因素助力市场上 涨,特别是市场对Al的乐观情绪和中国科技题材叙事向好、当前两会夯实稳增长的政 策基调，以及截至目前美国新政府治下的中美关系看起来好于投资者此前担忧的情 景。但随着指数估值越来越接近我们的合理市盈率目标（12倍），以及一些积极的国 内推动因素已经落实,我们预计随着未来几周中美政策和地缘政治日程再次变得活 跃,牛市进程将会放缓、获利回吐压力显现。我们维持对中国港股和A股的高配建议, 重申我们近日更新的12个月目标点位,即MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数的目标点位分 别为85点(+10%)和4,700点(+19%)，我们强调选择中后周期AI受益股、股东回报的代 表性投资标的以及部分民企作为投资组合核心持股，并在表现滞后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the near-term Chinese government bonds (CGB) but holds a constructive medium-term view [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a paradox in monetary policy, where measured easing occurs amid significant uncertainty, particularly regarding US-China trade relations and domestic economic conditions [4][5]. - The Chinese yuan (CNY) has shown resilience despite increased US tariffs, with the USD/CNY exchange rate stabilizing around 7.24, influenced by a weaker USD and improved sentiment in China's asset markets [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will prioritize FX stability over aggressive monetary easing, with expectations of two 20 basis point rate cuts in Q2 and Q4, and two 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in Q1 and Q3 [6]. Valuations and Policy Stance - The CNY depreciated against the CFETS basket in February but remained range-bound against the USD, indicating a cautious approach by policymakers [9]. - The PBoC's recent actions suggest a shift towards using the CNY fixing as a policy signal rather than a market instrument, maintaining stability despite external pressures [5][6]. Technicals - The report notes that interbank repo rates have remained above the policy rate, raising concerns about effective monetary tightening despite the PBoC's easing rhetoric [6]. - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH rose in February, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these currencies [17]. Fundamentals - China's trade balance showed a slight decline in January due to a wider trade deficit in travel services, with travel exports at 123% and imports at 114% of 2019 levels [30][32]. - The consensus forecast for China's CPI inflation remains subdued, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [51]. Liquidity and Leverage - The report indicates that liquidity in the interbank market remains tight, with the PBoC withdrawing liquidity amid rising demand from government bond issuance [6][62]. - Financial leveraging in the bond market is relatively low due to elevated interbank repo rates, suggesting cautious investor behavior [64]. Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was approximately RMB 419 billion in February 2025, reflecting increased government borrowing to support economic stability [70]. - Local government special bonds issuance was around RMB 392 billion in February 2025, indicating ongoing fiscal support measures [73].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for high-tech manufacturing in China, suggesting it could become a key growth engine for the economy [4][5]. Core Insights - Recent advancements in China's high-tech sectors, particularly with the emergence of AI models like DeepSeek, have led to optimism regarding medium-term growth [4][5]. - High-tech manufacturing has significantly outperformed other manufacturing sectors, driven by strong domestic policy support and increased external demand [4][19]. - The sector has contributed an average of 1.1 percentage points (pp) to annual real GDP growth over the past decade, with expectations of continued contributions of around 1.0 pp from 2025 to 2029 [33][45]. Summary by Sections High-tech Manufacturing Performance - High-tech manufacturing has been a significant growth driver, contributing an average of 1.1 pp to annual GDP growth over the last decade, with a peak contribution of over 2 pp in 2021 [33][36]. - The sector's share in total manufacturing value added has increased from 30% in 2005 to 40% in 2024, and it now accounts for approximately 8% of GDP [12][33]. Factors Driving Growth - The outperformance of high-tech manufacturing is attributed to two main factors: increased domestic policy support and a rise in external demand, with real exports growing at an annualized rate of 8% from 2019 to 2024 [19][23]. - Key high-tech sectors, such as industrial robots and semiconductors, have seen substantial production growth, reflecting the government's push for self-sufficiency and technological advancement [15][19]. Future Outlook - The baseline scenario anticipates that high-tech manufacturing will continue to outperform the broader manufacturing sector, with expected annual growth rates of 4.8% in real terms from 2024 to 2029 [39][41]. - Scenario analysis suggests that high-tech manufacturing's contribution to GDP growth could range from 0.6 pp to 1.4 pp, depending on various macroeconomic factors and trade tensions [44][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China and Japan, a Market Weight (MW) rating on India, Korea, and Taiwan, and a downgrade to Market Weight for Indonesia while upgrading Singapore to Overweight [4][27][57]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of tariffs and AI developments on investment strategies, particularly focusing on China and Japan as favorable markets [4][19][27]. - There is a noted shift in AI investment focus from infrastructure to application layers, benefiting China, while Japan's investment case remains strong despite recent market performance [19][27][37]. Summary by Sections Investor Feedback - Recent investor discussions have centered around tariffs, AI, macro policy, and geopolitical risks, with a strong interest in China equities despite some investors holding negative views [4][5]. Tariffs - The report outlines concerns regarding tariffs, particularly the potential for reciprocal tariffs impacting Asian economies, with a key risk period identified in early April [6][12]. - A 10% universal tariff could lead to a 3% hit to regional earnings and a 4% decline in valuations, with Taiwan and Korea being the most affected [10][13]. AI - The report notes a shift in AI focus towards application layers, particularly benefiting China, with significant revenue exposure in Taiwan (74%), China offshore (55%), and Korea (44%) [19][20]. - The proliferation of low-cost, high-performance AI models is seen as supportive for market views, with a preference for sectors like internet, media, and entertainment [21][28]. China - The investment case for China is bolstered by positive AI developments and policy support, with a target for the MSCI China Index raised from 75 to 85, reflecting a 9% earnings growth forecast [27][28]. - Key themes for investment include AI applications, government spending beneficiaries, and shareholder returns [29]. Japan - Japan's investment outlook remains favorable with strong earnings growth expectations and a current forward P/E valuation of 13.4x, despite recent market underperformance [37][38]. India - The report indicates a stabilization in India's economic growth, but risks remain from small/mid-cap (SMID) exposure and potential tariff impacts, leading to a market weight rating [42][43]. Korea and Taiwan - Both markets are rated at market weight, with a focus on alpha opportunities in sectors like defense and technology, particularly in relation to Apple suppliers in Taiwan [50][51]. ASEAN - The report suggests a reset in preferences for ASEAN markets, upgrading Singapore to overweight due to its stability and growth potential while downgrading Indonesia due to economic concerns [57][59]. Key Alpha Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying alpha themes within a moderately constructive beta backdrop, focusing on sectors like defense, AI applications, and quality stocks with strong balance sheets [66][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the Americas Technology: Internet sector, including AMZN, UBER, and GOOGL, while highlighting a positive skew for stocks like Instacart (CART), DraftKings (DKNG), and Pinterest (PINS) based on favorable risk-reward scenarios [10][8]. Core Insights - The report identifies three key themes affecting the US Consumer Internet & Interactive Entertainment companies: increasing investment in AI, the health of the global digital consumer, and potential impacts of US policies on consumer demand and regulatory landscapes [1][2]. - There is a notable shift in AI investments from infrastructure to platform and application layers, with expectations for accelerated product launches in the next 12-18 months [7]. - The digital advertising landscape remains mixed, with strong performance in certain sectors like retail/eCommerce, while brand advertising shows signs of weakness [18][19]. Digital Advertising - Q4 results showed better-than-expected performance in digital advertising, with strong ad spend trends during the holiday season and healthy user engagement [18]. - Companies like GOOGL, META, and PINS reported notable revenue outperformance, driven by AI adoption and diversification into non-advertising revenue streams [18][19]. - The report anticipates continued focus on advertising and macroeconomic conditions into 2025, particularly regarding AI-related capital intensity and return on investment [22]. eCommerce - Q4 results in eCommerce were mixed, with AMZN outperforming peers despite high customer acquisition costs and a focus on loyalty programs [32]. - The trajectory of operating margins is expected to diverge in 2025, with AMZN and CHWY likely to maintain attractive incremental margins [32]. - Investor interest remains high regarding capital returns and potential buyback programs, particularly for AMZN [32]. Cloud Computing - AWS revenue trends were better than expected, while Google Cloud showed a deceleration in growth, attributed to capacity constraints impacting AI-related demand [39][40]. - Both companies are expected to continue investing heavily in cloud infrastructure to support AI opportunities, with a focus on return on invested capital [41]. Online Travel - The online travel sector demonstrated post-pandemic recovery, with growth rates slightly better than expectations [52]. - Key debates for investors include the normalized growth algorithm for online travel and the impact of generative AI on traffic dynamics [53]. Mobility, Local Commerce & Delivery - Q4 results in mobility and delivery sectors were generally in line with expectations, with UBER highlighting strong growth in the US market [65]. - Investors are focused on consumer spending trends, pricing dynamics, and the competitive landscape, particularly with the rise of autonomous vehicles [66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report revises baseline tariff assumptions to include higher tariffs, particularly on product-specific categories such as autos, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals, which could lead to a significant increase in the effective tariff rate [2][9] - The expected increase in tariffs is projected to raise consumer prices and impact GDP growth negatively, with a peak hit to year-on-year GDP growth estimated at -0.8 percentage points under the new assumptions [3][28] - The report indicates a higher probability of recession, now estimated at 20%, due to the potential economic impact of larger tariffs [4][43] Summary by Sections Tariff Assumptions - The report anticipates further product-specific tariffs and reciprocal tariffs that could raise the effective tariff rate by approximately 10 percentage points, with a risk scenario suggesting a potential increase of up to 15 percentage points [2][10] - Current tariffs, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 20 percentage point increase on imports from China, have already raised the effective tariff rate by about 3.3 percentage points [9][11] Economic Impact - The revised forecast for GDP growth in 2025 has been lowered to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2.2%, reflecting the additional drag from larger tariffs [4][36] - Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to around 3% year-on-year under the new tariff assumptions, compared to a previous expectation of a decline to 2.1% [21][22] Policy and Market Reactions - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in response to the economic risks posed by the new tariff environment, with two cuts expected in 2025 [47][49] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment, contributing to a more cautious economic outlook [24][28]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.7%, marking the first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years [1][3]. Core Insights - The downgrade is primarily due to more adverse trade policy assumptions and expectations of tariff-induced near-term economic weakness, with the average US tariff rate expected to rise by 10 percentage points this year [3][5]. - Tariffs are projected to subtract an estimated 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth over the next year, with only a minor offset from tax cuts and regulatory easing [8][12]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to reaccelerate to 3% later this year, leading to a forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The medium-term growth outlook in the Euro area has improved due to potential changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts of 0.5 percentage points in Germany and 0.25 percentage points in the Euro area over the next 2-3 years [16][17]. - Despite increased US tariffs, sentiment towards the Chinese economy has improved, with expectations of a gradual rise in AI's contribution to China's GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.7% for 2025, influenced by adverse trade policies and tariff expectations [1][3]. - The average US tariff rate is expected to increase by 10 percentage points, significantly impacting consumer prices and real income [3][5][8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3%, prompting expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][16]. - The report maintains a dovish outlook for monetary policy in developed markets, particularly in response to tariff impacts [18]. Euro Area Growth - The report highlights an improved growth outlook for the Euro area, particularly due to changes in German fiscal policy, with expected growth boosts in the coming years [16][17]. China Economic Sentiment - Despite tariff increases, there is a noted improvement in sentiment towards the Chinese economy, with expectations of AI contributing more significantly to GDP growth starting in 2026 [20][21].

2025年3月10日 | 4:31PM GMT 欧洲经济分析 估算欧洲的军事需求 (摘要) Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | iari.stehn@gs.com 品密国际 Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 filippo.taddei@gs.com 品部国际 Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch James Moberly +44(20)7774-9444 GDP的比例下降了近2个百分点 -- 从GDP的约4%降至2% -- 这一趋势自2022年 以来才部分扭转。数十年来低水平的军费开支对基础设施和装备投资的冲击尤为 严重。虽然欧洲在坦克、火炮、舰艇和飞机方面的装备相当充足（尽管储备已大 幅下降而且目前集中在非核心国家），但该地区在空中防御、关键卫星、无人机 以及核能力方面落后。我们估计，目前与俄罗斯的军事储备差距约为4,000亿欧 元，尽管关于这一估算数据点的不确定性很大。 james ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on S&P 500 dividends, forecasting a growth of 6% year/year for 2025, with a payout ratio of 30% and dividends of $80 per share [11][12]. Core Insights - Despite a 6% selloff in the S&P 500 from its February high, dividend futures pricing has remained stable at 1%, indicating resilience amid market volatility [1][7]. - The main upside risk to the dividend forecast is the potential for excess capital return from the Financials sector due to regulatory reforms, which analysts have not yet fully incorporated into their estimates [3][22]. - The economists have revised the Q4/Q4 US GDP growth forecast down to 1.7%, which presents modest risks to the dividend growth forecast but more significant risks to EPS growth [3][30]. - Dividend futures are seen as an attractive investment opportunity for those who can withstand illiquidity and volatility, with forecasts indicating a 2% upside for 2025 futures and 7% for 2026 futures [35][36]. Summary by Sections Dividend Growth Forecast - The forecast for S&P 500 dividend growth in 2025 is set at 6%, down from a previous estimate of 7%, with earnings growth being the primary driver [11][12]. - The consensus expects the fastest dividend growth in Financials and Communication Services, while Energy and Real Estate are expected to grow the slowest [14][17]. Economic Indicators - The combination of policy uncertainty and weak economic data has contributed to the recent selloff in the S&P 500, with tariffs impacting investor sentiment [4][6]. - The ISM Manufacturing Index has declined to 50.3, while the ISM Services Index has increased to 53.5, indicating mixed economic signals [6][30]. Sector Analysis - In the first two months of 2025, 112 S&P 500 companies increased their dividends by a median of 7%, with 17% of these companies from the Financials sector [14][46]. - Analysts have noted that certain management teams may review their dividend payout ratios, which are currently just above 30% [21][22]. Potential Catalysts - Upcoming CCAR results in June are anticipated to be catalysts for the dividend market, as previous tests have led to dividend increases by participating banks [24][30]. - If large tech stocks initiate or increase their dividends, it could present another upside risk to the overall dividend growth forecast [28][29].

6 March 2025 | 12:50AM EST Global Economics Comment: Why Al Spending Is Not Boosting GDP (Briggs/Dong) ian hatzilis (1) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC osenh briaas@as com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.co Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Megan Peters 44(20) 7051-2058 megan | neters@gs.com Goldman Sachs International nvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or ...