Investment Rating - The investment rating for Country Garden Services has been downgraded to "Sell" due to slower-than-peer business recovery prospects [3] - Ratings for China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, and Poly Property are maintained at "Buy" due to their robust and predictable free cash flow generation and attractive valuations [3] Core Insights - The property management (PM) industry is expected to face continued growth challenges until 2027 due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, but long-term structural investment themes remain intact [1][9] - The focus on efficiency gains, high-quality expansion, and risk control among PM companies is anticipated to positively impact profit margins and cash flow in the coming years [1][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving liquidity benefiting community value-added services (VAS) [1][16] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The PM industry is maturing with a greater emphasis on quality growth and risk control, which is expected to enhance margins and cash flow [9][10] - The property downturn will continue to be a drag on PM growth until 2027, but improvements in consumption and government liquidity are expected to support VAS revenue [9][24] Financial Projections - Earnings forecasts for PM companies have been adjusted, with an average expected revenue growth of 6% and profit growth of 8% from 2024 to 2027 [2][29] - Free cash flow (FCF) generation is projected to improve, with net cash flow ratios expected to rise from 0.6x in 2024 to 1.2x in 2027 [2][30] Valuation Framework - A new valuation framework focusing on FCF generation has been introduced, applying a long-term multiple of 9x for 2027 FCF, with target prices adjusted by -15% to +15% [2][47] - The average target price for coverage PM companies implies a 9x 2025E P/E ratio, reflecting an 8% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [47]

2025年1月13日 | 7:11AM CST 中国 人形机器人 因长期可预见性增强而延展目标价基础至2030 年;买入三花/贝斯特;上调绿的谐波/鸣志至中性 鉴于近来一些关于技术和产品开发前景的积极评论（尤其来自英伟达和特斯拉），我 们认为市场可能会对人形机器人行业采取愈发长远的视角。我们将估值基准年份延展 至2030年（此前为2027年），并贴现回2025年，同时将覆盖范围内四只人形机器人 零部件股的目标价上调34%~82%，但我们维持行业出货量和公司盈利预测不变，以等 待有关技术成熟度的更明确依据。 我们相对更看好评级为买入的三花智控和贝斯特，因为我们认为二者股价提供了更具 吸引力的风险回报，而且其核心业务有望受益于国内汽车/家电销售的政策支持（参见 报告" China: Policymakers unveiled implementation details for the 2025 "dual upgrade" plan to boost consumption"）。我们将绿的谐波/鸣志电器的评级从卖出 上调至中性，以反映其均衡的回报状况（下行空间0%/9%，而我们覆盖范围内股票平 均下行空间为5% ...

中国 房地产 2025年一季度展望：二手房市场仍将表现最 好；关注更多刺激措施 我们在本篇报告中总结了2024年9月末政策放松后四季度的房地产市场表现，并展望 了2025年一季度前景。 2024年四季度：房地产销售面积高于预期，尽管在2025年初有所放缓。一线城市和部 分二线城市的平均房价环比回升，但由不同的房价区间驱动。自11月份以来，深圳房 价环比涨幅最高。到2024年底，我们看到新政策更多地侧重于城中村改造计划和保交 房。 2025年一季度：一季度通常是房地产市场的淡季。我们预计75个城市的销售面积和整 体二手房市场将同比正增长。但全国一手房市场、土地出让、新开工和竣工面积的同 比下降趋势可能会持续。3月份也将是观察开发商流动性状况的重要时点，因为这将是 今年债券偿付的第一个压力点。 我们预计，短期内覆盖范围内开发商的股价将在一定区间内波动，区间上限将由房价 企稳的改善所驱动，区间下限将由低于预期的政策趋势和弱于预期的房地产市场复苏 迹象所驱动。覆盖范围内开发商当前股价再次处于区间下限，反映出在没有额外政策 支持的情况下，房价企稳的可预见性较低。因此，我们预计估值将在一季度回升，推 动因素包括：1）持续 ...

CPI Forecast - Core CPI is expected to rise 0.25% MoM in December, with a YoY increase of 3.27%[1][2] - Headline CPI is projected to increase 0.40% MoM, driven by food prices rising 0.35% and energy prices surging 2.3%[1][2] - Core services CPI (excluding rent and OER) is forecasted to rise 0.21%, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.18%[1][2] Key CPI Components - Used car prices are expected to rise 1.0% MoM, reflecting auction price increases[1][3] - Airline fares are projected to increase 1.0% MoM due to seasonal factors[1][7] - Auto insurance prices are forecasted to accelerate slightly, rising 0.3% MoM[1][10] Future Inflation Outlook - Core CPI and core PCE are expected to reach 2.7% and 2.4% YoY, respectively, by December 2025[1][15] - Downward pressure on inflation is anticipated from rebalancing in auto, rent, and labor markets, offset by tariff increases[1][15] Housing and Other CPI Trends - Owners' equivalent rent is expected to rise 0.30% MoM, while rent of primary residence is forecasted to increase 0.25%[13] - Communication prices are expected to stabilize after a 1.0% decline in November[13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a 12-month target price of RMB 23.9, indicating a downside potential of 35.7% from the current price of RMB 37.16 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic gas sensing technology sector, focusing on the development of gas and particulate sensors used in various applications such as air quality control, industrial process monitoring, and automotive emissions monitoring [2]. - Despite stable orders from the automotive sector, the company faces multiple challenges, including weak demand in indoor air quality sensors due to the real estate market, a decline in the medical gas sensor business due to anti-corruption measures, and increasing costs in sales management and R&D [2][3]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2023 to 2030, driven by robust growth in automotive sensors and safety monitoring sensors, while indoor air quality and medical health applications may hinder overall performance [3]. Summary by Sections Current Outlook - The company is expanding its market presence in the automotive sector while maintaining a strong foothold in air quality and medical markets [2]. - Challenges include a shift towards lower-margin automotive sensors and rising operational costs impacting net profit margins [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth is projected at a CAGR of 16% from 2023 to 2030, with specific segments like automotive sensors expected to grow at 23% CAGR [3]. - Net profit is expected to grow at a slower pace of 14% CAGR due to product mix changes and high sales and R&D expenses [3]. - The target price is based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2025, with potential upside risks related to market awareness and policy support [3].

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs economic team forecasts China's GDP growth to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, primarily due to ongoing real estate deleveraging and escalating trade tensions with developed markets impacting exports. However, strong government policy measures are expected to alleviate these challenges and facilitate a shift from trade and investment-driven growth to domestic consumption-driven growth [2][11][17] - The MSCI China Index and CSI300 Index are projected to rise approximately 20% by the end of 2025, driven by expected earnings growth of 7% and 10% respectively, alongside reasonable price-to-earnings ratios of 11x and 14x. This baseline forecast assumes a 20% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the US and effective implementation of fiscal policies [2][6][11] - Despite a challenging start to the year, the risk/reward profile for Chinese equities remains attractive, leading to an overweight recommendation for both A-shares and H-shares [6][11][32] Market Overview - Short-term returns for A-shares and H-shares are expected to stabilize, with market sentiment and liquidity conditions likely improving by the end of Q1 2025 as tariff and policy clarity emerges [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of government consumption proxies, emerging market exporters, and new technology/infrastructure investments as key investment themes for 2025 [11][17][23] Investment Themes - Government consumption proxies are expected to benefit from a recovery in local government spending, particularly in sectors such as construction, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare [11][12][14] - Companies that export to emerging markets and those that benefit from RMB depreciation are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, as they may gain market share in stable or improving trade relationships [17][20][62] - Investments in "Little Giants," which are emerging companies supported by government policy, are recommended due to their alignment with national strategic objectives [23][27][63] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in consumer sectors, particularly online retail, media, and healthcare, while advising caution in sectors like autos and energy due to competitive pressures and market conditions [36][39][44] - The healthcare sector is expected to recover in 2025, with a projected growth rate of around 15% as regulatory pressures ease [40][41] - The banking sector is upgraded to market weight, anticipating stronger loan growth and sustained dividend payouts due to expected government support [49] Factor and Style Preferences - The report favors a blend of value and growth stocks, particularly those that exhibit strong cash returns through dividends and buybacks, as well as select small and mid-cap stocks that may offer alpha opportunities [52][55][56] - The analysis indicates that small caps may stabilize in performance relative to large caps, with a focus on thematic investments in "Little Giants" potentially generating excess returns [55][56]

Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 2025年1月9日 | 8:58AM EST 美国经济日评: 12月份非农就业数据前瞻 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/re ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) as "Buy" due to predictable profit growth supported by the 2024 employee incentive plan, attractive dividend yield, and low valuation with an average price corresponding to 12 times the expected earnings for 2025, while profit growth exceeds 10% [6][8]. Core Insights - Management expects revenue growth in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025 to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profits reaching the targets set in the incentive plan [1][4]. - The central air conditioning business remains a focal point for investors, with expectations of sequential improvement in Q4 2024, primarily driven by the 2C and 2B channels, while the engineering channel remains weak [1][4]. - The recently announced "trade-in" policy is anticipated to boost sales of central air conditioning units, as consumers can receive subsidies for up to three units this year compared to one last year [1]. - The white goods sector is benefiting from the trade-in stimulus measures, with a sequential improvement in the domestic market in Q4, and strong growth in overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets [1][4]. - Management anticipates stable profit margins for central air conditioning, with efficiency improvements offsetting the drag from channel and brand structure [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Expectations - For Q4 2024, management expects revenue growth to be in the mid-to-high single digits, with profit growth helping to achieve the annual growth targets set in the incentive plan [4]. - Domestic market growth for white goods has significantly improved compared to Q3, with October showing approximately 20% month-on-month growth for refrigerators and washing machines, while November and December saw single-digit growth [4]. Central Air Conditioning Business - The engineering channel in the domestic market faces significant growth pressure, while the 2C and 2B channels are showing signs of recovery [4][5]. - For 2025, management expects domestic sales to remain flat, while overseas markets are projected to continue strong growth, driven by expansion into non-European and non-VRF markets [4][5]. Traditional White Goods Business - Despite adjustments in Q3 2024 shipment volumes, management remains optimistic about market share growth driven by product improvements and channel expansion [5]. - Management expects profit margins for traditional white goods to improve due to product structure enhancements and efficiency gains [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][10]. Core Insights - The management emphasizes a market share-driven strategy, focusing on expanding the market share of key products such as NOR Flash, MCU, and DRAM. Key initiatives include product expansion targeting the automotive market and enhancing cost competitiveness through partnerships and innovation [2]. - The company is poised to benefit from the growth of edge AI, with expectations of increased demand for NOR Flash in AI PCs, AI headphones, and AI glasses, which require higher storage capacities [2]. - The price trend for products has likely bottomed out, but the potential for price recovery remains low [3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Outlook - The management's focus remains on expanding market share, with overall demand expected to remain volatile. The price trend has stabilized at low levels, with limited further downside, and price increases in 2025 are not anticipated [4]. - For NOR Flash, despite intense competition, the company maintains its position as the second-largest global revenue generator. The 2024 shipment volume is expected to be strong, driven by the automotive market and edge AI devices [4]. - The company aims for a 50% year-on-year increase in NOR Flash sales to the automotive sector in 2024, with similar growth targeted for 2025 [4]. MCU and DRAM Insights - The MCU segment is expected to see a slight recovery in 2024, with further observation needed for 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The overall revenue in the MCU sector has bottomed out in 2024 [5]. - The niche DRAM segment is currently undergoing a temporary inventory digestion phase, with a potential return to supply-demand balance expected in the second half of 2025 [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to enter a new growth cycle as it expands into niche DRAM products, supported by a strong increase in market share in mainland China. The NOR Flash and MCU businesses are expected to remain stable, with moderate recovery anticipated from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - The 12-month target price is set at RMB 120, based on a 37x P/E ratio for 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of RMB 56, indicating an upside potential of 37.4% from the current price of RMB 40.76 [11][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience strong revenue growth across all three business segments: optical modules, laser equipment, and new energy vehicle sensors, driven by domestic demand and international expansion [2][6][7]. - The management maintains confidence in the profit growth outlook for 2025, with key drivers including the increasing demand for optical modules and the expansion of laser equipment and sensor businesses [2][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Optical Modules - The company is a major supplier in the domestic market and is expanding its presence with U.S. clients. The demand for optical modules in China is projected to exceed 10 million units in 2025, up from 6-7 million in 2024. The main products will be 400G optical modules, with an increasing share of 800G modules [2][3]. - The gross margin for optical modules is expected to reach 15%-20%, driven by product structure upgrades and increased sales of high-margin products [2][3]. Laser Equipment - The management expects sales growth of over 20% for the laser equipment segment, supported by strong demand from the shipbuilding industry and new orders from smartphone manufacturers anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][6]. New Energy Vehicle Sensors - This segment is projected to have the highest net profit margin, with growth driven by expansion into overseas automotive clients and the introduction of new sensor products. Despite pricing pressures, the company aims to maintain stable profit margins through product improvements and cost control [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 18.3 billion in 2025, with net income expected to increase from RMB 1.0 billion to RMB 2.1 billion during the same period [9][11].