Investment Rating - The report lowers the investment rating for Indian equities from overweight to neutral, indicating a cautious stance due to slowing growth and high valuations [5][39]. Core Insights - Despite a structural positive outlook for Indian equities, economic growth and corporate profit growth are experiencing a cyclical slowdown, with real GDP growth expected at 6.5% for FY25, which is below consensus [5][8]. - The MSCI India index has rallied significantly, but high starting valuations at 24x forward earnings may constrain near-term upside, with historical data suggesting muted returns when valuations are elevated [5][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality companies with high earnings visibility amid the current economic environment, highlighting 20 Buy-rated stocks with strong fundamentals [5][44]. Summary by Sections Economic and Corporate Profit Growth Slowdown - Economic growth is slowing across various sectors, with GDP growth estimates revised down to 6.7% for CY24 and 6.5% for FY25, reflecting a contraction in government capex and mixed signals in consumption indicators [8][12]. - Earnings sentiment has worsened, with a notable number of companies missing profit estimates during the recent reporting season, leading to downward revisions in earnings growth expectations for CY24 and CY25 [14][20]. Valuation Concerns - Current valuations for MSCI India are at historical peaks, with a significant premium over regional indices, raising concerns about the risk-reward profile for investors [21][27]. - The report notes that high valuations combined with earnings downgrades typically lead to lower future returns, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the near term [21][23]. Sector Positioning - The report recommends reducing exposure to cyclical sectors and favoring domestic sectors with higher earnings visibility, such as autos, telecommunications, and insurance, while downgrading sectors like industrials and financials due to low visibility [39][43]. - The report highlights medium-term themes such as housing, clean energy, and tourism as potential areas for investment, indicating a focus on sectors with better demand visibility [48][51]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of external factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and regulatory measures by SEBI, which could affect market sentiment and trading activity [29][33]. - A significant outflow of foreign investment has been noted, with a shift in allocations from India to China, indicating changing investor sentiment in the region [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the China property sector, with specific recommendations for individual developers based on their performance and market conditions [49]. Core Insights - Property sales in approximately 75 cities are expected to decline by 7% year-over-year in October, an improvement from a 36% decline in September [3]. - The report highlights a 20% year-over-year decline in completions for October 2024, with a forecasted 13% decline for the full year [10][11]. - The primary market shows a 15% week-over-week increase in gross floor area (GFA) sold, with tier-1 cities outperforming [4]. - Secondary market transactions increased by 17% week-over-week and 18% year-over-year, indicating positive price expectations from agents and homeowners [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - New home sales volume increased by 15% week-over-week and year-over-year, with tier-1 and northern cities showing stronger performance [1]. - Secondary transactions averaged a 17% increase week-over-week and an 18% increase year-over-year, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]. Market Trends - The inventory balance decreased by 0.5% week-over-week and 7.1% from the end of 2023, with inventory months averaging 26.4 [9]. - The report notes that the average weekly volume of primary property sales in tier-1 cities was up 32% week-over-week and 22% year-over-year [4]. Developer Valuations - Offshore developers are trading at an average 32% discount to the end-2024 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at an 8% discount [13]. - The report suggests that the current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for developers are at downturn trough levels, indicating potential investment opportunities [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [1]. Core Insights - The air travel industry in China is experiencing a significant pullback in passenger traffic post-Golden Week, with domestic airfares decreasing over 15% year-on-year, reaching approximately 80% of 2019 levels, while international airfares have normalized to 105-110% of pre-COVID levels [1][3]. - Domestic passenger traffic is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, reaching 107% of 2019 levels, while international traffic is forecasted to rise by 63% year-on-year, reaching 83% of 2019 levels [1]. - Group tours, which accounted for 40% of pre-COVID outbound travelers, have only recovered to 19% of the same period in 2019, indicating a bottleneck in outbound travel demand [1][3]. Summary by Sections Airfare Performance - Domestic airfares have declined to -20% compared to 2019 levels post-Golden Week, while international airfares remain at +5-10% compared to 2019 [5][11]. - The overall flight numbers have recovered to +1% compared to 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. Passenger Traffic - Weekly air passenger traffic has deteriorated sharply post-Golden Week, dropping to only 110% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - Domestic flight numbers have recovered to +6% compared to 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [8]. Capacity Recovery - Capacity recovery for outbound destinations shows Malaysia and Singapore leading at 120% and 117% of 2019 levels, while the US has recovered the slowest at 29% [11][13]. - International flight capacity is expected to remain stagnant at 78% of 2019 levels [3]. Group Tour Recovery - Outbound group tour travelers to Singapore and Thailand have recovered the fastest, reaching 29% and 26% of 2019 levels, respectively, while Vietnam lags at 14% [1][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on US and Asian equities, a "Neutral" (N) rating on Japan, and an "Underweight" (UW) rating on Europe for the 3-month horizon [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with US equities reaching new all-time highs driven by positive macro data, while many developed markets (DMs) outside the US remain significantly below their previous highs [1][4]. - The strong performance of US equities is supported by solid retail sales and improved macro surprises, contrasting with weaker trends in Europe and Japan [1][4]. - Emerging markets (EMs), particularly China, have shown signs of recovery, with September activity data surpassing expectations [1][4]. - The report indicates a bullish outlook for US growth, with cyclical sectors outperforming alongside rising inflation, while European equities are downgraded to a 3% EPS growth forecast for 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - US equities have outperformed, with flows into US equities being strong year-to-date, particularly compared to other developed markets [1][4]. - The positioning for US small caps has increased, with net long positioning on Russell 2000 reaching the highest level since 2021 [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The Risk Appetite Indicator closed at 0.3, the highest level since July, indicating increased risk appetite among investors [1][4]. - Macro surprises in the US have turned more positive since October, contrasting with negative trends in other major DMs [1][4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in US and Asian equities, with a neutral stance on Japan and an underweight position on Europe for the 3-month horizon [3][4]. - The S&P 500 is projected to deliver a total return of only 3% per annum over the next 10 years, despite its attractiveness in the near term [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - Current valuation metrics indicate that the S&P 500 is at a 95th percentile expensiveness relative to its 10-year history, with a forward P/E ratio of 22.0x [19][20]. - The report notes that US 10-year government bonds yield 4.1%, placing them in the 91st percentile of their historical range [19][20].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪委 关注公众号： 永木纪委 Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH October 21, 2024 08:21 AM GMT Investor Presentation │ Asia Pacific China Autos Overview 955一手调研究参加海外技行所报数据加V： shuinu9870 1 - Tim Hsiao Equity Agaly - Tim Hsraogimorganstanley.com +852 2848-1982 Cindy Huang Equity Analyst Cindy.Huang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3568 Stanley Wang Research Associate Stanley.Wang@morganstanley.com Shelley Wang, CFA Equity Analyst Shelley.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7382 +852 3963-0047 Joey Xu, CFA Equity Analyst Joey. ...

21 October 2024 | 3:42PM HKT 公众号: 永木纪要 China: Consumer Dashboard 2024Q3: Consumption growth slowed and consumer confidence deteriorated | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

21 October 2024 | 10:55PM EDT as the market was still eyeing Israel's retaliation as it stepped up its attacks in Lebanon over the weekend amidst a reported takeoff in US-moderated ceasefire 童 狗 negotiations. 1987V ്ലയ്ക് trackable net supply tightened by 0.1mb/d week-over week as sequential ncreases in our demand estimates for China (which was revised significantly higher) and Europe (but below our September expectation) modestly outweighed a sequential increase in our Canada liquids production nowcast. Ou ...

公众号: 永木纪要 Our preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests US$64bn net FX inflows in September, in comparison with US$9bn net FX inflows in August (Exhibit 1). 22 October 2024 | 7:55PM HKT China: SAFE data suggest strong FX inflows in September | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | ...

众众号:水木纪要 24 October 2024 | 6:25PM EDT Americas Energy: Oil: Amid Macro Volatility, What Are We Focused on Into Earnings for the US Super Majors? In this note, we update estimates for US Super Majors (XOM, CVX, COP) ahead of 3Q24 earnings results where we mark to market commodity prices for the quarter. While we remain mindful of the current oil macro backdrop, we reiterate our relative reference for Buy-rated COP and CVX, where we see 23% and 15% total regturn to our updated price targets (respectively). Fo ...

24 October 2024 | 11:23AM EDT 众号:水木纪要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | Commodity Insights The Boost From China Stimulus | | | | | As our China economists have upgraded the 2025 GDP level forecast by 0.6% following stimu ...