Investment Rating - The report recommends a focus on undervalued high-dividend quality power companies such as China Resources Power (836.HK) and quality renewable energy companies like Longyuan Power (916.HK) and Xintian Green Energy (956.HK) [1][2]. Core Insights - The "Blue Book" outlines a three-phase development plan for the national unified electricity market, aiming for initial completion by 2025, full establishment by 2029, and enhancement by 2035 [2]. - The establishment of a multi-level electricity market is expected to enhance resource allocation and restore the commodity nature of electricity, benefiting the profit levels of power generation companies [2]. - The report highlights the acceleration of renewable energy market participation, with expectations for comprehensive market engagement by 2029, addressing the increasing pressure on renewable energy consumption [2]. Summary by Sections National Unified Electricity Market Development - The development plan is divided into three phases: preliminary establishment (2024-2025), comprehensive establishment (2026-2029), and enhancement (2030-2035) [2]. - By 2025, the market's top-level design will be largely complete, with significant market scale improvements and initial trading mechanisms for renewable energy storage [2]. - By 2029, the market will achieve full coverage of provincial spot markets and enable comprehensive participation of renewable energy in market transactions [2]. Market Mechanisms and Trading - The report emphasizes the need for a well-designed market system to accommodate the characteristics of renewable energy, which has high output volatility and prediction difficulties [2]. - The renewable energy market's trading volume reached 684.5 billion kWh in 2023, accounting for 47.3% of total renewable energy generation, with some major power companies exceeding 50% participation [2]. - The green electricity and green certificate trading mechanisms are expected to continue improving, with green electricity trading volume reaching 151.93 billion kWh in H1 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the establishment of the national unified electricity market will help discover value through market mechanisms, ensuring reasonable returns for power companies [2]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong power operator sector remains low, with several stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 6% [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an IPO specific rating of "5.1" to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for the investment opportunity [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the collaborative robot sector, with a comprehensive product portfolio that meets diverse application needs across various industries [1]. - The global collaborative robot market has shown significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% from 2019 to 2023, and is expected to accelerate to a CAGR of 36.6% from 2023 to 2028 [1]. - The company has achieved a revenue growth from RMB 1.74 billion in 2021 to RMB 2.87 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 28.3% [1]. Company Overview - The company specializes in collaborative robots with payload capacities ranging from 0.25 kg to 20 kg, serving various sectors including manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and education [1]. - The company operates in over 80 countries, with a stable supply chain for key components such as chips and sensors [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of RMB 1.74 billion, RMB 2.41 billion, and RMB 2.87 billion for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with a projected revenue of RMB 2.99 billion for the period from July 2023 to June 2024 [2]. - The gross profit margins for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 were 50.5%, 40.8%, and 43.5% respectively, with a margin of 39.1% for the first half of 2024 [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The collaborative robot market is characterized by rapid growth and increasing competition, with major players holding significant market shares [1]. - The company ranks seventh globally in terms of revenue in the collaborative robot industry, with a market share of 3.6% [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an IPO-specific rating of "5.7" for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for potential investors [5]. Core Insights - The company, 小菜园, is a value-oriented Chinese restaurant chain with a focus on affordability, maintaining a customer price point below 100 RMB. The company has shown consistent revenue growth despite challenging consumer environments, with revenues of 32.1 billion RMB, 45.5 billion RMB, and 35.4 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and the first eight months of 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.5%, 41.5%, and 15.3% [1]. - The company has expanded its store count significantly, from 379 stores at the end of 2021 to 636 stores by August 2024, marking a 67% increase, with all stores being company-operated [1]. - The company has a strong focus on takeout services, which accounted for 36.8% of its revenue in the first eight months of 2024, up from 15% in 2021 [1]. Company Overview - 小菜园 operates primarily in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, with a total of 636 stores, including 259 in Jiangsu and 136 in Anhui. The company’s first store was established in Anhui, which remains its operational base [1]. - The average consumer spending per visit has decreased from 66.1 RMB in 2021 to 59.5 RMB in 2024, indicating a strategic pricing adjustment to maintain competitiveness [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The Chinese restaurant industry is substantial, with a market size of 5.2 trillion RMB in 2023. The industry has shown a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2018 to 2023, with expectations for recovery as consumer confidence stabilizes [2]. - The mass-market segment, where 小菜园 operates, constitutes approximately 88% of the market, with a high degree of chain penetration at 19.2% [2]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented due to low entry barriers, with 小菜园 holding a market share of 0.2% in the 50-100 RMB dining segment [2]. Strengths and Opportunities - The company’s strong brand positioning emphasizes high cost-performance, appealing to consumers seeking value for money [3]. - 小菜园 has developed a standardized operational model, enhancing efficiency in food safety, service, and training, which supports its growth strategy [3]. - The company has established a robust supply chain management system, ensuring quality control and cost efficiency through centralized procurement and logistics [3]. - Financially, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7% and a current ratio of 1.8 as of August 2024 [3].

Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a cost-effective Chinese restaurant chain with an average customer spending below RMB 100 [1] - Revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first eight months of 2024 were RMB 3.21 billion, RMB 4.55 billion, and RMB 3.54 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.5%, 41.5%, and 15.3% [1] - Net profits for the same periods were RMB 240 million, RMB 530 million, and RMB 400 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 124%, and 1.3% [1] - The company has experienced rapid store expansion, growing from 379 stores at the end of 2021 to 636 stores by August 2024, a 67% increase [1] - Stores are concentrated in Jiangsu (259 stores) and Anhui (136 stores), with 69 stores in Shanghai and 62 in Zhejiang [1] - The average customer spending in 2024 was RMB 59.5, down 10% from RMB 66.1 in 2021 [1] - Same-store sales declined by 11.4% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, attributed to high base effects and reduced foot traffic [1] - Delivery accounted for 36.8% of revenue in the first eight months of 2024, up from 15% in 2021 [1] Industry Overview - The Chinese catering industry reached a scale of RMB 5.2 trillion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2018 to 2023 [2] - The mass market (average customer spending below RMB 100) accounts for approximately 88% of the Chinese catering market [2] - The industry's chain rate is 19.2%, with potential for further penetration [2] - The industry is highly fragmented, with Xiaocaiyuan holding a 0.2% market share in the RMB 50-100 customer spending segment, ranking first [2] Strengths and Opportunities - Xiaocaiyuan's brand positioning emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, offering a "delicious and affordable" dining experience [3] - The company has a standardized operational model, including standardized dishes, services, training, and food safety protocols [3] - It has a strong supply chain management system, featuring a self-built cold chain logistics network and centralized procurement [3] - The company maintains a robust financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7% and a current ratio of 1.8 as of August 2024 [3] Weaknesses and Challenges - The low entry barrier in the catering industry leads to intense competition, requiring continuous operational efficiency [4] - Consumer loyalty is low, necessitating frequent menu and store environment updates [4] - Store performance heavily depends on location selection, which carries inherent risks [4] Investment Recommendation - The IPO price is set at HKD 8.5, with a post-IPO market capitalization of approximately HKD 10 billion (excluding over-allotment) [5] - The trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 18.6x, considered relatively undervalued historically [5] - The IPO is assigned a rating of "5.7" [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US consumer sector has seen an overall increase of 16% in 2024, underperforming the S&P 500 index which rose by 28%[5] - The retail sector, particularly daily consumer goods and tobacco, outperformed the S&P 500 with increases of 45% and 32% respectively[11] - Inflation remains high, but consumer companies are gradually raising prices, leading to a recovery in profits[5] Group 2: Consumer Macro Trends - Despite a slowdown in consumer growth, the underlying consumer base remains robust, with CPI showing positive growth and per capita income increasing healthily[18] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 74 in December, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[20] - Disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, supporting future consumption growth[23] Group 3: Retail Sales Performance - Total retail and food service sales in October reached $718.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8%[26] - Online retail sales grew by 7% in October, maintaining a strong growth trend throughout the year[26] - Sales at gas stations have declined sharply, primarily due to falling oil prices, impacting overall retail performance[26] Group 4: ETF Recommendation - The XLP ETF, which tracks leading companies in the daily consumer goods sector, has doubled in value over the past decade, achieving an annualized return of 8%[31] - The current PE-TTM for the XLP index is 26.2x, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels[39] - The top holdings in XLP include Procter & Gamble, Costco, and Walmart, which dominate their respective markets[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) with a 6-month target price of HKD 12 8 [1][4] Core Views - Mobvista's Q3 2024 revenue reached $416 million, a 54 6% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of $11 million, up 162 4% YoY [1] - The company's programmatic advertising platform, Mintegral, contributed $402 million in revenue, a 57 6% YoY increase, driven by its smart bidding capabilities and expansion into new verticals [2] - Mintegral's game category revenue grew 46 5% YoY to $295 million, accounting for 73 2% of its total revenue, while non-game categories surged 98 5% YoY to $108 million, with e-commerce being a key driver [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 5pp YoY to 21 1%, supported by a 0 9pp increase in ad tech gross margin to 20 6% [2] - Mobvista has achieved consecutive quarters of profitability since Q4 2022, demonstrating strong scale effects [2] Financial and Valuation Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from $894 4 million in 2024E to $2,084 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23 9% [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from $9 7 million in 2024E to $82 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 71 4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from $0 02 in 2024E to $0 05 in 2026E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 49 3x in 2024E to 22 2x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] Business Performance and Strategy - Mintegral's smart bidding system has gained market validation, with ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) becoming a mainstream choice for developers [2] - The platform has expanded into mid-to-hardcore games and non-game verticals such as e-commerce and social, driving diversification [2] - Non-programmatic ad revenue declined slightly by 0 5% YoY to $9 94 million, while marketing tech revenue grew 1% YoY to $4 million, supported by overseas expansion and cost optimization [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for ad tech improved to 20 6%, while marketing tech gross margin declined by 13 5pp to 68 9% [2] - Sales expenses increased by 32 7% YoY due to rising bidding costs, and R&D expenses surged 59 7% YoY due to investments in the smart bidding system [2] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 7 6% in 2024E to 13 0% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [10]

Industry Overview - Autonomous driving is the core competitiveness: In the fuel vehicle era, companies like Toyota and Volkswagen dominated with high barriers due to complex mechanical structures and extensive patent holdings In the electrification era, companies like BYD simplified car structures, lowering entry barriers In the smart era, Tesla leads with valuations surpassing traditional automakers despite lower sales volumes [2] - 2024 marks the first year of intelligent driving: Tesla achieved a breakthrough with end-to-end solutions, followed by domestic companies like NIO, XPeng, and Huawei, which are also launching end-to-end intelligent driving systems High-end intelligent driving is becoming a standard feature in models priced below 200,000 RMB [2] - China is the largest passenger car market globally, with 21.7 million units sold in 2023, of which 12.4 million were intelligent vehicles, representing a penetration rate of 57.1% By 2026 and 2030, intelligent vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.4 million and 29.8 million units, with penetration rates of 81.2% and 99.7%, respectively [10] - High-level autonomous driving penetration reached 12% in 2023 and is expected to exceed 80% by 2030 [10] Technological Advancements in Autonomous Driving - End-to-end autonomous driving is expected to become the ultimate solution for high-level autonomous driving, integrating multiple algorithms to improve system performance and efficiency Tesla's FSD Beta V12, launched in August 2023, and domestic solutions from Huawei and XPeng are driving the maturity of NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) [21] - The cost of autonomous driving technology is decreasing: Tesla reduced costs by developing its own chips and simplifying hardware, while companies like Huawei and XPeng are also reducing hardware configurations [18] - Autonomous driving is categorized into levels L0 to L5, with L4 and L5 representing high and full automation, respectively NOA functionality is a significant milestone in the evolution of autonomous driving, reducing driver fatigue and appealing to long-distance commuters [6] Policy and Market Trends - China is improving its legal framework for autonomous driving, covering licensing, pilot zones, and commercial operation standards While L3 autonomous driving is cautiously approved, many automakers already possess L3 and L4 technology [15] - In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments issued policies to promote the development of intelligent connected vehicles, including pilot programs for autonomous driving in 20 cities [16] - The penetration of high-speed NOA in new energy vehicles has reached the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range, with city NOA expected to drop below 200,000 RMB by 2025 [18] Company Recommendations - Focus on the vehicle sector for intelligent driving opportunities: Companies like Tesla and XPeng are leading the industry with mature NOA solutions, while BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors are excelling in electrification and export strategies [25] - Tesla: Expected to see a 20%-30% sales growth in 2025, driven by the new Model Q and advancements in autonomous driving technology, including FSD and Robotaxi services [27] - XPeng: Entering a new product cycle with strong growth potential, supported by its advanced autonomous driving technology and organizational restructuring [29] - BYD: Leading in hybrid technology with its fifth-generation DM system, expanding globally, and increasing investments in intelligent driving technology [31][32] - Geely: Launching a strong product cycle with new models and integrating its autonomous driving solutions, including city NZP and NZP+ [33] - Great Wall Motors: Focusing on hybrid and intelligent new energy vehicles, with a strong presence in overseas markets and advanced autonomous driving systems [35] - Nexteer: A key supplier for Tesla's Model Q and a leader in steer-by-wire technology, with commercialization expected by 2025 [37]

國證國際 宏观策略 中央救市 行情能否延续至2025年 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 2024年12月 分析师： 黄焯伟 Steve (中央編號：ASG163) stevewong@sdicsi.com.hk 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 目录 中国宏观回顾 救市组合拳 预期2025年机会 國際國際 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 2 中国宏观：GDP增长放缓 国家统计局公布初步核算数据，今年第三季度中国GDP同比增长4.6%，增速较第二季度回落0.1个百分点。前三季度累计，GDP 同比增长4.8%，如果要达到目标，第四季度中国的GDP增速需要达到5.5%。 细分产业来看，工业持续趋冷，而服务业则有所回暖。前者的增速从上季度的 5.6% 回落到 4.6%，后者增速从上季度的 4.2% 加快到 4.8%。 2024年GDP增速目标定在5％左右，与2023年一致。虽然经济增长面临挑战，但政府一再强调要坚守增长目标，相信最终结果 应该距离目标不远。与其他主要国家相比，增速将维持较快水平。 中国GDP环比增长情况 主要经济体增长情况 3 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 ...

SDICSI 2024 年 12 月 3 日 波司登 (3998.HK) 品类创新带来新增量，期待销售旺季表现 事件：近日，波司登公布 FY25H1 业绩，收入同比上升 17.8%，归母净利润同比 上升23.0%，好于预期。综合考虑，我们预测2025-2027财年EPS为0.32/0.36/0.41 元，给予公司 2024/25 财年 16 倍 PE，目标价 5.6 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 收入快速增长，品类持续创新 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日止，集团上半财年收入录 得 88.04 亿元，同比上升 17.8%，归母净利润录得 11.3 亿元，同比上升 23%，收 入和利润均取得亮眼增长，且利润保持快于收入的增速。 品牌羽绒服业务：收入同比增长 22.7%至 60.6 亿元，毛利率下滑 0.1pp 至 61.1%。 波司登主品牌录得收入 52.8 亿元，同比增长 19.4%，主要是新品类防晒衣和冲锋 衣羽绒服热销带动，毛利率同比提升 0.9pp 至 65.4%；雪中飞抓住中低端羽绒服 市场的机会，收入同比增长 47.1%至 3.9 亿元，毛利率同比提升 6pp 至 50.1%； 高性价比品 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------| | SDICSI 2024 年 12 月 2 日 毛戈平 (1318.HK) | | IPO 点评 证券研究报告 | | 中国民族高端美妆明星 | | 医美 | | | | | | ──── 毛戈平（ 1318.HK ） IPO 点评 | | | | 报告摘要 | | | | | | | | 公司概览 | | | | | | | | 毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司于 2000 ...