M N 25 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) Anticipating sustained profitability  Profit turnaround driven by core business operations. Henliu’s FY23 revenue Target Price HK$18.67 increased 67.8% YoY to RMB5.40bn, driven by strong sales of HANQUYOU (Previous TP HK$18.67) (trastuzumab biosimilar) and serplulimab (PD-1). HANQUYOU recorded Up/Downside 31.8% RMB2.74bn revenue in FY23, +58% YoY. We think HANQUYOU may be free from Current Price HK ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Greentown Management with a target price of HK$ 9.37, reflecting a 13x 2024E PE [2][4]. Core Insights - Greentown Management achieved a net profit growth of +31% YoY in FY23, with a maintained dividend payout ratio of 100%, resulting in an 8% dividend yield [2][5]. - The company is expected to guide industry-leading growth with a revenue CAGR of +20% and net profit CAGR of +25% over the next three years, potentially outperforming the broader property market [2][8]. - The company's adaptability in business restructuring has been highlighted as a key factor in its strong performance despite a sluggish property market [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 results showed revenue of RMB 3,302 million, a 24.3% increase YoY, and attributable net profit of RMB 974 million, up 31% YoY [3][5]. - Gross profit margin remained stable at 52%, with a slight decrease in commercial project management (PJM) margin to 52% and an improvement in government PJM margin to 45% [5][12]. - The company reported a net margin of 29.5% in FY23, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous year [5][12]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 4,048 million in FY24, with a YoY growth of 22.6%, and net profit is expected to be RMB 1,250.9 million, reflecting a 28.5% increase [3][7]. - The company has a billable contract value of RMB 25 billion, with an expected annual increase of approximately RMB 10 billion [2][8]. - The forecast for net profit in FY26 is RMB 1,897.3 million, indicating a continued growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Greentown Management has expanded its business into non-residential projects, which accounted for 15% of new contracts in FY23, in response to a contracting residential market [2][8]. - The company has successfully maintained its market share in the property management sector, with newly contracted gross floor area (GFA) increasing to 35.3 million square meters in FY23 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's asset-light model and high cash flow as significant advantages in the current market environment [2][8].

M N 25 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Baozun (BZUN US) GAP revitalization making good progress Target Price US$4.93 Baozun delivered mixed 4Q23 results with in-line revenue (+9% YoY) but soft (Previous TP US$6.90) bottom line. For 1Q24E, we expect a low-single-digit YoY decline in revenue, with Up/Downside 113.0% a net loss position, for slower BEC (Baozun E-commerce) recovery with soft Current Price US$2.30 consumption sentiment. Despite that, BBM (Baozun Brand ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Prudential Plc with a target price adjusted to HK$137.8, reflecting a potential upside of 81.9% from the current price of HK$75.75 [2][3]. Core Insights - Prudential reported a strong FY23 performance with new business profit (NBP) increasing by 45% year-over-year (YoY) to US$3.13 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by 6.4% [2]. - The NBP margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 53% for the full year, with a notable improvement in the second half of FY23, where the margin reached 57% [2]. - The board approved a full-year dividend of US$0.2 per share, indicating a 9% increase from FY22, and expects continued dividend per share (DPS) growth of 7%-9% in FY24 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY23 net profit was US$1.7 billion, a significant recovery from a loss of US$1.0 billion in FY22 [3]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY23 grew by 8% YoY to US$2.9 billion, driven by lower central costs and restructuring expenses [2][3]. - The Group's total assets increased to US$174.1 billion in FY23, with a projected growth to US$198.6 billion by FY24 [8]. Business Segments - Agency NBP surged by 75% YoY to US$2.1 billion, supported by a 37% growth in Health & Protections (H&P) and a 59% increase in agent productivity [2]. - The bancassurance segment saw a decline of 8% to US$793 million, primarily due to poor performance in China and Vietnam [2]. - The NBP of the China joint venture, CITIC Prudential Life, fell by 43% YoY to US$222 million, impacted by a 40% decline in APE sales [2]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.54x for FY24E, close to historical lows, reflecting concerns over China exposure and trading liquidity [2][3]. - The expected return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.8% in FY23 to 12.5% by FY26 [9]. - The dividend yield is anticipated to rise from 1.6% in FY23 to 2.7% by FY26 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$29.40, indicating an upside potential of +38.4% from the current price of HK$21.25 [1]. Core Insights - Li Ning's FY23 results met expectations, with revenue of RMB27.6 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase, while net profit decreased by 21.6% to RMB3,187 million. The company declared a final dividend of RMB0.19, resulting in a payout ratio of 45% [1]. - Management provided conservative guidance for FY24, targeting a sales growth of approximately 5% and a net profit margin (NPM) of 12-13% [1]. - The company is focusing on operational improvements and quality enhancement, with a goal to drive NPM towards 15% in the mid-to-long term [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 revenue was RMB27.6 billion, up 7% YoY, while net profit was RMB3,187 million, down 21.6% YoY. The gross profit margin (GPM) remained stable at 48.4% [2]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) contracted by 6.0 percentage points to 12.9%, primarily due to an increase in selling and distribution expenses [2]. - The cash conversion cycle extended by 5 days to 35 days, with operating cash flow reaching RMB4.7 billion, a 20% increase YoY [1][2]. Operational Highlights - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales mix improved to 25.0% from 20.7% in FY22, contributing positively to the GPM [1]. - The company reported a sell-through rate of 78%, significantly higher than 52% in FY22, indicating improved inventory management [1]. - Channel inventory decreased to 3.6 months, down from 4.2 months in December 2022, reflecting better inventory control [1]. Future Outlook - For FY24, Li Ning aims for a revenue target of RMB29.3 billion, with projected earnings of RMB3.52 billion [1]. - The company plans to optimize its store network, expecting to close over 20 directly operated stores while opening around 100 franchised stores [1]. - Management is implementing measures to control unauthorized sales activities, targeting a reduction of such activities by 50-60% by the end of FY24 [1].

M N 22 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) More than obesity  Strong product sales in FY23. In FY23, Innovent recorded total revenue of Target Price HK$55.00 RMB6.21bn, including RMB5.73bn product sales revenue (+38.4% YoY), in line with (Previous TP HK$57.35) our expectation. Innovent had a strong 2H23, with product sales +33.1% HoH vs the Up/Downside 44.4% first half. As per Eli Lilly, total sales of sintilimab in FY23 reached US$393.3 ...

Xtep International | 1368.HK Rating BUY Maintain Saucony stands out among the new brands Target price HK$6.6 4 C Cuu rr rr ee nn t price HK$5.04 Upside: +31.7% Curren FY23 results inline (b reakdown in Exhibit 1): Company update Xtep reported FY23 result with revenue and net profit at RMB14.3bn and RMB1,030mn. up 10.9%/11.8% YoY. While excluding inventory and receivables provisions and 21 Mar 2024 write-backs, the group’s core operating profit/earnings at RMB1,546/RMB996mn, up 4.4%/6.1% YoY. The key highlig ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Intron Tech with a new target price (TP) of HK$5.53, based on a 12x FY24E P/E valuation methodology [13][14][21]. Core Insights - Intron's FY23 revenue was RMB 5.8 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year (YoY) growth, while net income decreased by 23.5% YoY to RMB 317 million. The gross profit margin (GPM) was 18.7%, down 2.8 percentage points YoY, attributed to intensified price competition [21][32]. - The company expects solid growth in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) and Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) segments, driven by increasing demand and export opportunities in China. However, margin pressure may persist due to heightened competition [21][32]. - The report highlights a significant increase in R&D expenses, which reached 9.0% of revenue due to talent recruitment and upfront investments. Management anticipates a normalization of these expenses in FY24E [21][32]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,975 million in FY24E to RMB 10,805 million in FY26E, with a YoY growth rate of 20.2% in FY24E and 24.2% in FY25E [21][26]. - The breakdown of revenue by segment shows strong growth in New Energy (131.6% YoY in 2021, 91.0% in 2022) and Automation & Connectivity (151.3% YoY in 2022) [21][26]. Earnings Summary - The earnings forecast for FY24E includes a revenue estimate of RMB 6,975 million, a gross profit of RMB 1,298 million, and a net profit of RMB 441 million, indicating a 39% YoY growth in net profit [21][26][32]. - The report notes that the EPS for FY24E is expected to be RMB 0.41, with a consensus estimate of RMB 0.55 for FY25E [21][26]. Valuation Metrics - Intron is currently trading at 4.5x FY24E P/E, significantly lower than the average P/E of 22.8x for its peers, indicating that it is undervalued [14][21]. - The report emphasizes the attractive risk/reward profile of Intron, especially in light of potential catalysts such as favorable NEV policies and increasing penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [14][21].

M N 22 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Expectations reset on conservative guidance; Maintain HOLD Target Price HK$47.31 Sunny Optical (Sunny)’s FY23 net profit was largely in-line with profit warning, but (Previous TP HK$50.71) 2H23 GPM of 14.1% (vs 19% in 2H22) was below expectations due to more intense Up/Downside 1.0% competition despite spec upgrade and more high-end models in 2H23. For 2024 Current Price HK$46.85 guidance, while mgmt. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FriendTimes, with a target price of HK$1.8, indicating an upside potential of 80% from the current price of HK$1.00 [13][29]. Core Insights - FriendTimes reported a significant revenue decline of 31% YoY for FY23, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 133 million, which was largely in line with expectations. The decline was attributed to existing games' grossing decline and increased sales and marketing expenses [29]. - The new game "Twist of the Fate 2" (ToF2) has shown promising performance, ranking in the top 50-70 for iOS grossing in Q1 2024. The company expects ToF2 to maintain stable grossing and is focusing on expanding to Android and overseas markets [29]. - Management is prioritizing cost discipline in FY24, with adjustments in personnel and careful development of high-R&D projects. The report anticipates that mini-games will unlock additional grossing potential [29]. Financial Summary - For FY22, revenue was RMB 1,524 million, which decreased to RMB 1,056 million in FY23, with a projected recovery to RMB 1,474 million in FY24, and further growth to RMB 1,933 million in FY25 and RMB 2,048 million in FY26 [1][23]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 131.8 million in FY23 to a profit of RMB 180.3 million in FY24, increasing to RMB 256.9 million in FY25 and RMB 299.4 million in FY26 [1][23]. - The report indicates a significant drop in diluted EPS from 1.90 cents in FY22 to a loss of 6.10 cents in FY23, with a forecasted recovery to 8.27 cents in FY24 and further increases in subsequent years [1][23]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 50.7 in FY22 to 11.1 in FY24, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [1][25]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 68% from FY24 onwards, while the operating margin is projected to improve gradually [30][25]. - The report highlights a current ratio of 4.1 in FY23, indicating strong liquidity, which is expected to improve to 5.4 in FY24 [25].