2025年，中国创新药BD交易总额历史性突破千亿美元，并出现百亿美元级订单，跨国药企支付的首付 款站在12.5亿美元的新台阶。 如果要挑选2025年的股市关键词，创新药一定是其中之一。2025年1月至9月，多只创新药企股票实现翻 倍上涨，而支撑行业在二级市场受热捧的，并非传统意义上的已上市药品带来的业绩增长，而是在研创 新药通过BD交易出海带来的想象空间。 年度标志性交易刷新多项纪录： 1月，启光德健与美国Biohaven、韩国AimedBio达成的超130亿美元合作，涵盖同类首创FGFR3靶点 ADC药物GQ1011的全球权益授权，同时涉及21个ADC靶点的联合开发平台，是中国ADC底层技术能力 获得国际背书的里程碑。 2025年初，迪哲医药（688192.SH）研发的肺癌靶向药向美国FDA递交新药上市申请并获得优先审评资 格，7月该药正式获批，成为中国首款独立研发在美获批的全球首创新药。7月，凯思凯迪研发的1类新 药CS0159口服片剂获FDA突破性疗法认定。8月，禾元生物（688765.SH）研发的重组人白蛋白注射液 获FDA批准开展三期临床试验。12月，康宁杰瑞（09966.HK）研发的HER2双抗A ...

信达生物：与礼来制药达成最高88.5亿美元的全球战略合作，推进肿瘤及免疫领域的新药开发 近日，信达生物制药集团宣布与礼来制药达成战略合作，携手推进肿瘤及免疫领域创新药物的全球研 发。本次协议为双方第七次合作，进一步深化了双方长期且富有成效的合作伙伴关系，携手为全球患者 带来创新药物。 根据合作协议，双方将发挥互补优势，加快推进创新药物的全球研发工作。信达生物依托自身成熟的抗 体技术平台及高效的临床能力，将主导相关项目从药物发现至中国临床概念验证（二期临床试验完成） 的研发工作。根据协议，礼来获得相关项目在大中华区以外的全球独家开发与商业化许可，信达生物保 留相关项目在大中华区的全部权利。 根据协议条款，信达生物将获得3.5亿美元首付款；在达成后续特定里程碑事件后，信达生物还有资格 获得总额最高约85亿美元的研发、监管及商业化里程碑付款。此外，信达生物有权就各产品在大中华区 以外的净销售额获得梯度的销售分成。 据悉，康泰生物与阿斯利康的合作计划始于2025年3月，双方拟在北京经济技术开发区设立合资公司， 聚焦疫苗业务建立战略合作关系。合资公司注册资本预计3.45亿元（折合5000万美元），双方各持股 50%，投 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，2月6日，摩根大通增持信达生物（01801）58.59万股，每股作价79.232港 元，总金额约为4642.2万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为8721.76万股，最新持股比例为5.02%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 责任编辑：卢昱君 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月6日，摩根大通增持信达生物（01801）58.59万股，每股作价79.232港 元，总金额约为4642.2万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为8721.76万股，最新持股比例为5.02%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...

（原标题：摩根大通增持信达生物(01801)58.59万股 每股作价约79.23港元） 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月6日，摩根大通增持信达生物(01801)58.59万股，每 股作价79.232港元，总金额约为4642.2万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为8721.76万股，最新持股比例为 5.02%。 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，2月6日，摩根大通增持信达生物(01801)58.59万股，每股作价79.232港元， 总金额约为4642.2万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为8721.76万股，最新持股比例为5.02%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the synergistic effects of small nucleic acid drugs and GLP-1 class drugs in the weight loss sector, suggesting they could become a "golden duo" for weight management [1][4]. Group 1: Drug Efficacy and Development - Arrowhead has reported promising initial weight loss results from two small nucleic acid drugs targeting INHBE and ALK7, with ARO-INHBE showing an average fat reduction of 9.9% and liver fat reduction of up to 38.6%, alongside a 3.6% increase in lean tissue [1]. - ARO-ALK7 demonstrated a dose-dependent average reduction of ALK7 mRNA by 88%, confirming the TRiM platform's ability to inhibit fat cell gene expression [1]. - Wave Life's WVE-007 targeting liver INHBE showed a 9.4% reduction in visceral fat and a 4.5% overall fat reduction after three months, with a 3.2% increase in lean body mass [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Collaborations - Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly investing in small nucleic acid drugs, with Eli Lilly committing $1.2 billion in collaboration with Saint Inbiotech for RNAi candidate drug development for metabolic diseases [3]. - Eli Lilly also invested $1 billion in HAYA's lncRNA platform for obesity and related metabolic disease treatments, while Novo Nordisk partnered with Replicate Bioscience for a $550 million project targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes [3]. - The speed of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in developing small nucleic acid drugs for weight loss is nearly on par with international counterparts, with several companies like Hengrui Medicine and Innovent Biologics actively pursuing this area [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in small nucleic acid weight loss targets, including Hengrui Medicine, Chengdu Xian Dao, China National Pharmaceutical Group, East China Pharmaceutical, and others [6].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the company and Eli Lilly marks another significant licensing deal worth over $8.85 billion, reinforcing the strength of the company's antibody technology platform [1] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The company has entered into a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance global R&D of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology [1] - The agreement includes an upfront payment of $350 million, potential milestone payments of up to $8.5 billion, and a tiered sales revenue sharing structure [1] - The company retains all rights in Greater China while Eli Lilly obtains exclusive global development and commercialization rights outside this region [1] Group 2: Financial Projections and Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year in 2025, reaching around 11.9 billion RMB, with Q4 2025 expected to generate about 3.3 billion RMB [2] - The product pipeline, including IBI363, IBI343, and IBI324, is projected to drive significant revenue growth, with a combined potential market space exceeding $60 billion [2] - Management expects to generate 8-10 new molecules annually from its early-stage clinical pipeline starting in 2026, aiming to push five products into global Phase III trials by 2030 [2] Group 3: Target Price and Ratings - The target price is maintained at HKD 105, reflecting the potential contributions from the Eli Lilly collaboration and adjustments based on the latest management guidance regarding the Takeda collaboration [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies involved in the small nucleic acid drug sector targeting obesity [4]. Core Insights - The obesity treatment market is gaining significant attention, with GLP-1 drugs demonstrating efficacy in weight loss, but they also have high rebound rates post-treatment and associated muscle loss. Small nucleic acid drugs offer a different approach by targeting fat metabolism at the genetic level [12][21]. - Arrowhead and Wave Life have shown promising initial results for their small nucleic acid drugs ARO-INHBE and WVE-007, respectively, indicating effective fat reduction without muscle loss [22][38]. - The collaboration between major pharmaceutical companies and small nucleic acid drug developers is intensifying, with significant investments aimed at advancing RNAi therapies for metabolic diseases [49]. Summary by Sections 1. Unmet Needs in Obesity Treatment - The report highlights the unmet demand in obesity treatment, emphasizing that small nucleic acid drugs could provide solutions by directly intervening in fat metabolism [12][16]. 2. Initial Efficacy of Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - Arrowhead's ARO-INHBE demonstrated an average fat reduction of 9.9% and a liver fat reduction of 38.6%, while also increasing lean tissue by 3.6% [22][27]. - Wave Life's WVE-007 showed a 9.4% reduction in visceral fat and a 4.5% reduction in total fat after three months, with a 3.2% increase in lean body mass [38][49]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies developing small nucleic acid drugs for obesity, including HengRui Medicine, Chengdu XianDao, China Biopharmaceutical, and others [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh collaboration and validating its antibody technology platform. This partnership is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue providing stable support for revenue growth [7][12]. - The management expects that three key assets, IBI363, IBI343, and IBI324, will enter global Phase III clinical trials, with IBI363 alone projected to contribute over USD 40 billion to the market [7][12]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12.505 billion, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates, while 2026 revenue is expected to rise to RMB 18.450 billion, an increase of 26.7% [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now forecasted at RMB 10.713 billion, down 41.0%, with a gross margin of 85.7%. For 2026, gross profit is expected to increase to RMB 16.064 billion, with a gross margin of 87.1% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1.055 billion, a decrease of 87.9%, while 2026 net profit is projected to rise to RMB 3.502 billion, reflecting a 37.8% increase [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][11]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161.238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic collaboration with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh major partnership and validating its antibody technology platform. This collaboration is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its oncology and comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue supporting revenue growth [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential market space for key assets, estimating over USD 60 billion, with IBI363 alone contributing more than USD 40 billion. The company is also expected to introduce 8-10 new molecules annually from its innovation pipeline starting in 2026 [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12,505 million, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates. However, the 2026 revenue forecast has been increased by 26.7% to RMB 18,450 million, and the 2027 forecast has been raised by 18.6% to RMB 20,830 million [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 10,713 million, down 41.0% from prior estimates, while the gross profit margin is projected to be 85.7% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1,055 million, reflecting an 87.9% decrease from previous estimates, but is expected to rise to RMB 3,502 million in 2026 and RMB 4,341 million in 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][12]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161,238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].