Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances with a target price of RMB 42.00, implying a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of RMB 31.75 [4][5][9]. Core Insights - The outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by domestic growth supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to accelerate compared to 2024. The management anticipates double-digit growth in exports, although at a slower pace than in 2024 [1][2]. - The central air conditioning (CAC) segment is projected to achieve positive sales growth, contrary to market expectations of a decline due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The management believes that product upgrades and supply chain optimizations will enhance gross margins [1][2]. - The company is expected to be a major beneficiary of the domestic subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which will positively impact demand and product structure upgrades [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the export prospects for 2025, particularly for split air conditioners, driven by demand from emerging markets. The impact of U.S. tariffs is minimal, as they account for less than 5% of the company's revenue, and the company can adjust its production capacity flexibly [3]. Central Air Conditioning (CAC) Sales - The management forecasts mid-single-digit growth for CAC sales in 2025, with the consumer channel (2C) expected to see high single-digit growth due to subsidies. However, this may be offset by declines in the decorated housing channel, which accounted for 17% of total HVAC sales in Q424 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 85.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 102.87 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 2.837 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.879 billion in 2025 [7]. - The report indicates a steady improvement in profitability metrics, with the EBITDA margin expected to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Southern Airlines A is neutral with a target price of Rmb6.12 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates that business travel demand will be key for 2025, while domestic passenger revenue is expected to be weak in 2024 due to consumer downgrade and increased competition from high-speed rail [2][3]. - The company anticipates a strong travel demand during the Spring Festival in 2025, but a rapid decline in demand is expected towards the end of the travel season [3]. - The airline's international flight capacity is projected to recover to 90-100% of 2019 levels by 2025, although profitability remains challenging outside of routes to Japan and South Korea [4]. - The aircraft utilization rate is expected to reach historical highs, increasing from 9.62 hours per day in 2024 to over 10 hours per day in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to increase from Rmb159.398 billion in 2023 to Rmb184.396 billion in 2024, with further growth to Rmb199.190 billion in 2025 [8]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of Rmb3.727 million in 2024, increasing to Rmb6.782 million in 2025 [8]. Market Position - As of the end of 2022, China Southern Airlines is the largest airline in China by fleet size, operating 894 aircraft [10]. - The airline's market capitalization is approximately Rmb115 billion (US$15.7 billion) [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) target price of Rmb6.12, with the current stock price at Rmb6.36 [5][6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 75.945 million shares, with a market price fluctuation range of Rmb7.27 to Rmb5.26 over the past year [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Lepu Medical with a target price of RMB 10.40, reflecting a downside potential from the current price of RMB 10.76 [4][6][23]. Core Insights - The revenue for FY24 is expected to exceed RMB 6 billion, with Q424 showing signs of stabilization compared to Q324. However, the overall outlook for FY25 remains uncertain due to factors such as layoffs and related costs [1]. - The medical device segment, particularly structural heart and PCI (Percutaneous Coronary Intervention) businesses, is anticipated to drive growth in FY25, while the pharmaceutical and healthcare management segments are expected to face challenges [2][3]. - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue has declined significantly since Q224, with a slight recovery in Q424. Future growth is dependent on ongoing product development, particularly in diabetes and weight-loss drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Medical Devices - Revenue for the medical device segment in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 25.63 billion, down 10.48% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) business. However, PCI and structural heart businesses showed growth, with revenues of RMB 12.13 billion and RMB 3.85 billion, respectively [2]. - The structural heart business is expected to double its revenue from approximately RMB 5 billion in FY24, driven by products like TAVR and biodegradable occluders [2]. Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue fell to RMB 14.76 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight recovery in Q424. The growth in this segment is projected to be modest in FY25 due to high base effects from O124 [3]. - Key growth drivers in the medium to long term include ongoing clinical trials for diabetes and weight-loss drugs, with MWN101's Phase II trials nearing completion [3]. Valuation - The report uses a DCF valuation method, maintaining a target price of RMB 10.40, which corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.8x for FY25 and 14.3x for FY26 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 74.00 [4][24]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about its growth in 2025, aiming for double-digit growth while ensuring sustainability [2]. - Sales trends for the company's products have shown significant year-on-year growth, with notable increases in various product categories [1]. - The company plans to continue investing in research and marketing for its main products, particularly focusing on expanding its market reach beyond Shandong province [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the period of January to November 2024, the sales growth rates for various products were approximately 10% for Ejiao blocks, 45% for Ejiao syrup, 15% for Ejiao cakes, 100% for Ejiao powder, and over 60% for male health products [1]. Growth Strategy - The company has set a theme for 2025 as "Growth and Breakthrough," with a focus on maintaining double-digit growth and sustainable practices [2]. - The company aims to keep the average annual growth rate for Ejiao blocks below 10%, while Ejiao syrup is expected to grow by over 20% annually [2]. Financial Projections - The revised stock incentive plan indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for earnings per share (EPS) from 2023 as the base year, with net profits projected to be no less than RMB 15.2 billion in 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates a higher dividend payout ratio in 2024 compared to the previous year, which had a 100% payout ratio [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to arrive at a target price of RMB 74.00, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.0% [4]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately RMB 39.9 billion (USD 5.44 billion) [5]. Market Data - As of January 15, 2025, the stock price was RMB 61.97, with a 12-month price target indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huatai Securities with a target price of Rmb 26.44, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 16.77 [4][23]. Core Insights - The company is under manageable capital pressure, having released some regulatory requirements and received over Rmb 10 billion from the sale of AssetMark, which will support future capital needs [1]. - The brokerage business is seeing increased client engagement, with higher deposit and activation efficiencies compared to previous months [2]. - The company plans to initiate a comprehensive internationalization strategy starting in 2025, expanding cross-border integration across all business lines [3]. Summary by Sections Capital Management - The company has successfully navigated capital pressures through regulatory adjustments and significant cash inflow from asset sales [1]. Brokerage and Investment Activities - Client activity in the brokerage sector has surged, with a notable increase in margin financing demand amid competitive pricing pressures [2]. - The self-operated investment strategy has shifted towards a multi-strategy approach, with a focus on quantitative and hedging strategies [2]. International Strategy - Starting in 2025, the company will enhance its cross-border business integration, expanding beyond investment banking and FICC to include retail and wealth management [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 36.578 billion in 2023 to Rmb 51.601 billion in 2024, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb 12.751 billion to Rmb 17.685 billion in the same period [6]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in earnings per share, from Rmb 1.40 in 2023 to Rmb 1.95 in 2024 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a PB/ROE method to derive the target price, indicating a favorable valuation outlook for Huatai Securities [4].

更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 高测股份 2025 瑞银大中华研讨会:金刚线份额持续提升 产能利用率及盈利能力承压,但份额持续增长 高测参加此次研讨会,要点如下:1)金刚线:Q424出货近1,500万公里, 环比略降,但12月份市场份额升至近30%。12月出货中,钨丝已占65%, 对比行业水平为30%+。公司预计该业务或在25年3-4月扭亏为盈。2)硅片 切片服务:目前产能利用率在55-60%,外加硅片价格低迷,使得该业务仍 处于亏损状态。3)设备:鉴于订单疲软及持续的研发费用和固定成本,公 司预计2025年该业务将亏损。4)创新业务:公司指引2025年收入增 长20%+,下游应用横向拓展持续(如,Q424进入高端大理石切割市场)。 估值:买入评级,目标价13.00元 我们基于DCF所得目标价为13.00元(WACC: 8.7%)。 Global Research 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | 股票 | | | --- | --- | | 中国 | | | 工业多样化 | | | 12个月评级 | 买入 | | 12个月目标价 | Rmb13.00 | | 股价(2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb 59.00, reflecting a 23.2% potential upside from the current price of Rmb 47.89 [4][5][24]. Core Insights - The company expects a revenue growth of 10-15% in 2024, driven by government stimulus policies and a recovery in demand, particularly in the chemical and petrochemical sectors [1][2]. - The management anticipates a significant increase in overseas orders, projecting a growth of approximately 50% [1]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, which are expected to enhance operating profit margins despite a downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth Projections - The company forecasts stable growth in its chemical and petrochemical business, supported by government investments in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [2]. - The software business is transitioning to a SaaS model, aiming to penetrate the small and medium enterprise market more effectively [2]. Profitability Adjustments - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5-11% due to lower revenue expectations, reflecting a 6-15% decrease in revenue projections [3]. - Despite the downward adjustment in revenue, the company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Valuation and Market Position - The target price is based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025E, which is an increase from the previously implied 25x, indicating a positive outlook for the software industry [4]. - The company is recognized as the largest supplier of distributed control systems (DCS) in China, with a diversified client base across various process industries [10].

管理层出席了在上海举行的2025瑞银大中华研讨会。管理层预计2024年全 年收入实现正增长,但净利润同比下降(不过,毛利率提升以及降本举措推 动Q424净利润为正)。至于2025年,管理的目标是收入增长百分之十几, 且净利润增速高于收入增速。在客流量和客单价的双重推动下,同店销售增 长预计将从2024年的持平(客流量正增长,客单价负增长)逐渐恢复 到2025年的正增长。至于扩张,公司预计2025年自建及并购门店减少,但 加盟门店增加。 2025年行业整合可能会加速 更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 大参林医药集团 2025瑞银大中华研讨会:期待2025年盈利明显 修复 2025年收入增长目标为百分之十几 管理层估算,由于宏观和监管挑战,行业60-70%的药店2024年利润恶化。 管理层预计,未来,围绕药房合规性的严格监管审查会成为常态;对药品追 溯码的要求(预计2025年年中)可能会进一步推动不合规的药房退出市 场。全行业药店总数可能会在未来几年内减少10-20万家,更多药店可能会 选择加盟头部连锁品牌。根据管理层,一级市场的估值已从2024年初 的0.7-0.8倍市销率下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 37.30, indicating an expected upside from the current price of RMB 30.39 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on both organic growth and potential acquisitions to achieve its equity incentive goals despite market pressures in 2025 [2]. - The gypsum board market is expected to remain stable in demand, with the company implementing a pricing strategy aimed at maintaining volume while increasing prices [3][4]. - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities in the waterproofing and coatings sectors, although it acknowledges that large-scale negotiations can be lengthy [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The company reported that the price of its Dragon brand gypsum board was affected by foreign brand price reductions in Q4, but prices have started to recover in December [2]. - The overall gypsum board industry demand is anticipated to be stable in 2025, with the company focusing on maintaining price stability and optimizing product structure [3]. Business Strategy - The waterproofing business experienced unexpected growth in 2024, but pricing pressures are expected in 2025 due to industry changes [4]. - The company has set ambitious long-term goals for its coatings business, with significant revenue growth reported in 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.016 billion in 2024 to RMB 28.202 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 4.066 billion to RMB 4.486 billion during the same period [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.41 in 2024 to RMB 2.66 in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a segmented price-earnings ratio approach, assigning multiples of 13, 15, and 25 times the expected earnings for gypsum board, waterproofing, and coatings respectively for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Oriental Yuhong with a target price of RMB 15.65, based on a 20x 2025 expected P/E ratio [5][6] Core Views - Oriental Yuhong's management remains cautious about domestic demand in 2025 but is optimistic about overseas market expansion, targeting overseas revenue of RMB 1.5-2 billion [2][4] - The domestic waterproofing market is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with demand projected to decline by 10-20% YoY, following a 20-30% decline in 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its 2025 domestic revenue forecast downward to RMB 30 billion from the previous RMB 32.7 billion [3] Domestic Market Performance - In Q4, Oriental Yuhong achieved positive YoY growth in shipments, with a notable 40% YoY increase in civil building materials [2] - The company has been actively managing accounts receivable, achieving a significant YoY reduction by the end of 2024 [2] Overseas Expansion - Oriental Yuhong is accelerating its overseas expansion, with its US factory (Phase 1) expected to commence operations by September-October 2025 [4] - The company is exploring opportunities to establish additional factories in the US and is actively expanding into Southeast Asia and Saudi Arabia [4] - Despite the overseas expansion, the company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditures and will consider dividend payouts based on cash flow conditions [4] Financial Metrics - The company's market capitalization is RMB 32.0 billion (USD 4.37 billion), with a P/B ratio of 1.1x as of December 2024 [6] - The 52-week stock price range is RMB 17.85-9.86, with a current price of RMB 12.71 as of January 15, 2025 [6] - The report forecasts a 23.1% potential stock price increase and a 0.9% dividend yield, resulting in a total expected return of 24.1% [9] Industry Outlook - The waterproofing industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation due to cash flow pressures, with prices expected to stabilize due to profitability considerations [3]