更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 高测股份 2025 瑞银大中华研讨会:金刚线份额持续提升 产能利用率及盈利能力承压,但份额持续增长 高测参加此次研讨会,要点如下:1)金刚线:Q424出货近1,500万公里, 环比略降,但12月份市场份额升至近30%。12月出货中,钨丝已占65%, 对比行业水平为30%+。公司预计该业务或在25年3-4月扭亏为盈。2)硅片 切片服务:目前产能利用率在55-60%,外加硅片价格低迷,使得该业务仍 处于亏损状态。3)设备:鉴于订单疲软及持续的研发费用和固定成本,公 司预计2025年该业务将亏损。4)创新业务:公司指引2025年收入增 长20%+,下游应用横向拓展持续(如,Q424进入高端大理石切割市场)。 估值:买入评级,目标价13.00元 我们基于DCF所得目标价为13.00元(WACC: 8.7%)。 Global Research 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | 股票 | | | --- | --- | | 中国 | | | 工业多样化 | | | 12个月评级 | 买入 | | 12个月目标价 | Rmb13.00 | | 股价(2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb 59.00, reflecting a 23.2% potential upside from the current price of Rmb 47.89 [4][5][24]. Core Insights - The company expects a revenue growth of 10-15% in 2024, driven by government stimulus policies and a recovery in demand, particularly in the chemical and petrochemical sectors [1][2]. - The management anticipates a significant increase in overseas orders, projecting a growth of approximately 50% [1]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, which are expected to enhance operating profit margins despite a downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth Projections - The company forecasts stable growth in its chemical and petrochemical business, supported by government investments in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [2]. - The software business is transitioning to a SaaS model, aiming to penetrate the small and medium enterprise market more effectively [2]. Profitability Adjustments - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5-11% due to lower revenue expectations, reflecting a 6-15% decrease in revenue projections [3]. - Despite the downward adjustment in revenue, the company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Valuation and Market Position - The target price is based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025E, which is an increase from the previously implied 25x, indicating a positive outlook for the software industry [4]. - The company is recognized as the largest supplier of distributed control systems (DCS) in China, with a diversified client base across various process industries [10].

管理层出席了在上海举行的2025瑞银大中华研讨会。管理层预计2024年全 年收入实现正增长,但净利润同比下降(不过,毛利率提升以及降本举措推 动Q424净利润为正)。至于2025年,管理的目标是收入增长百分之十几, 且净利润增速高于收入增速。在客流量和客单价的双重推动下,同店销售增 长预计将从2024年的持平(客流量正增长,客单价负增长)逐渐恢复 到2025年的正增长。至于扩张,公司预计2025年自建及并购门店减少,但 加盟门店增加。 2025年行业整合可能会加速 更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 快评 大参林医药集团 2025瑞银大中华研讨会:期待2025年盈利明显 修复 2025年收入增长目标为百分之十几 管理层估算,由于宏观和监管挑战,行业60-70%的药店2024年利润恶化。 管理层预计,未来,围绕药房合规性的严格监管审查会成为常态;对药品追 溯码的要求(预计2025年年中)可能会进一步推动不合规的药房退出市 场。全行业药店总数可能会在未来几年内减少10-20万家,更多药店可能会 选择加盟头部连锁品牌。根据管理层,一级市场的估值已从2024年初 的0.7-0.8倍市销率下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 37.30, indicating an expected upside from the current price of RMB 30.39 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on both organic growth and potential acquisitions to achieve its equity incentive goals despite market pressures in 2025 [2]. - The gypsum board market is expected to remain stable in demand, with the company implementing a pricing strategy aimed at maintaining volume while increasing prices [3][4]. - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities in the waterproofing and coatings sectors, although it acknowledges that large-scale negotiations can be lengthy [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The company reported that the price of its Dragon brand gypsum board was affected by foreign brand price reductions in Q4, but prices have started to recover in December [2]. - The overall gypsum board industry demand is anticipated to be stable in 2025, with the company focusing on maintaining price stability and optimizing product structure [3]. Business Strategy - The waterproofing business experienced unexpected growth in 2024, but pricing pressures are expected in 2025 due to industry changes [4]. - The company has set ambitious long-term goals for its coatings business, with significant revenue growth reported in 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.016 billion in 2024 to RMB 28.202 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 4.066 billion to RMB 4.486 billion during the same period [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.41 in 2024 to RMB 2.66 in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a segmented price-earnings ratio approach, assigning multiples of 13, 15, and 25 times the expected earnings for gypsum board, waterproofing, and coatings respectively for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Oriental Yuhong with a target price of RMB 15.65, based on a 20x 2025 expected P/E ratio [5][6] Core Views - Oriental Yuhong's management remains cautious about domestic demand in 2025 but is optimistic about overseas market expansion, targeting overseas revenue of RMB 1.5-2 billion [2][4] - The domestic waterproofing market is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with demand projected to decline by 10-20% YoY, following a 20-30% decline in 2024 [3] - The company has adjusted its 2025 domestic revenue forecast downward to RMB 30 billion from the previous RMB 32.7 billion [3] Domestic Market Performance - In Q4, Oriental Yuhong achieved positive YoY growth in shipments, with a notable 40% YoY increase in civil building materials [2] - The company has been actively managing accounts receivable, achieving a significant YoY reduction by the end of 2024 [2] Overseas Expansion - Oriental Yuhong is accelerating its overseas expansion, with its US factory (Phase 1) expected to commence operations by September-October 2025 [4] - The company is exploring opportunities to establish additional factories in the US and is actively expanding into Southeast Asia and Saudi Arabia [4] - Despite the overseas expansion, the company plans to maintain cautious capital expenditures and will consider dividend payouts based on cash flow conditions [4] Financial Metrics - The company's market capitalization is RMB 32.0 billion (USD 4.37 billion), with a P/B ratio of 1.1x as of December 2024 [6] - The 52-week stock price range is RMB 17.85-9.86, with a current price of RMB 12.71 as of January 15, 2025 [6] - The report forecasts a 23.1% potential stock price increase and a 0.9% dividend yield, resulting in a total expected return of 24.1% [9] Industry Outlook - The waterproofing industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation due to cash flow pressures, with prices expected to stabilize due to profitability considerations [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the company with a target price of Rmb 21.00 based on a 20x multiple of the estimated earnings per share for 2025 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The primary growth driver for the company in 2025 is expected to come from the information industry, particularly through PCB equipment, which will maintain growth momentum from 2024 due to overseas expansion by small and medium-sized manufacturers, increased demand for server-related PCBs, and recovery in orders for Android smartphones [2][3]. - The company anticipates improvements in other business segments in 2025, with growth largely dependent on overall industry trends and government policy support. The semiconductor and panel business is expected to stabilize, while the new energy lithium battery segment will benefit from major customer order recoveries [3][4]. - Profitability is projected to improve in 2025 due to an enhanced product mix and economies of scale from revenue growth, alongside a significant reduction in stock-based compensation [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of Rmb 14.634 billion for 2024, increasing to Rmb 15.658 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb 1.592 billion in 2024 to Rmb 1.105 billion in 2025 [7]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 1.5% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, reflecting better operational efficiency [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading market share in the laser equipment industry in China, supplying low and high-power laser equipment, PCB equipment, and LED devices, with significant applications in consumer electronics, display panels, and new energy batteries [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a market capitalization of Rmb 26.7 billion (approximately US$3.64 billion) and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8x for 2024, which is expected to adjust to 24.1x in 2025 [6][7].

更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V: shuinu9870 快评 新洁能 2025瑞银大中华研讨会:汽车和服务器数据中 心应用的2025年展望乐观 25年需求主要由汽车和服务器应用带动 公司管理层出席了2025瑞银大中华研讨会。公司主要分享了1)25年下游需 求展望,2)公司在汽车及服务器应用上的进展,3)各产品的竞争格局变 化。按各下游应用来看,公司对汽车电子和数据中心板块的成长较为乐观。 其中,公司和主要服务器厂商、电源模块厂商、服务器核心电源管理芯片厂 商都有紧密合作,公司预计2025年其将继续受益于国内外客户的数据中心 建设。对于其他下游应用,公司预计工控板块的电动工具及无人机客户的采 购需求仍将保持良好的增长,光伏储能的需求有望恢复,而消费电子应用或 将保持平稳。 公司对汽车电子应用的增长可见性乐观 自H224以来,受到政策影响,公司看到汽车客户的国产化诉求明显增加。 公司产品(主要为SGT MOS)也从车身控制域成功拓展至动力域/安全相关 领域,后者目前由海外供应商占据主导份额。公司车规级料号增长迅速,目 前已有200颗左右。考虑到汽车产品导入周期较长,目前各项目已陆续从小 批量供货逐步转向大 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the company with a target price of Rmb 69.00 [6][25]. Core Insights - The company aims for double-digit revenue and profit growth in 2025, driven by factors such as steady growth in the converter business, resilience in the switch and socket business, rapid growth in new energy-related businesses, and above-industry growth in smart lighting [2][3]. - The management expects revenue resilience in Q4 2024, with a projected growth of 5% in revenue and 3% in profit compared to Q3 2024 [2]. - The company's market share in the switch and socket segment has increased from approximately 20% in 2020 to around 30%-35% in 2023/24, while foreign brands have seen a significant decline in market share [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a stable revenue growth in the converter business, supported by continuous product innovation and indirect benefits from the "trade-in" subsidy program in 2025 [4]. - The management projects that the smart lighting segment will grow by 20% in 2024, contrasting with a decline in the traditional lighting industry [2]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains a primary concern, particularly in the switch and socket sector, with expected declines in home decoration demand in 2025 [3]. - Despite the anticipated challenges, the company expects to achieve stable revenue growth in its switch and socket business due to market share gains [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts, including expected revenues of Rmb 17.045 billion for 2024 and Rmb 18.651 billion for 2025, with net profits projected at Rmb 4.408 billion and Rmb 4.764 billion respectively [8]. - The company maintains a target price based on a DCF valuation method, corresponding to an 18x PE for 2025E [5].

纪要录音和海外投行报告加V: shuinu9870 华润微 - A 盈利能力正待改善;维持"中性"评级 上周,我们参观了华润微掩模项目的新生产基地,并参加了投资者开放 日活动。重点纪要如下:1)受消费电子产品相关需求的支撑,2024年4 李度表现好于预期;2)新的12英寸晶圆厂产能准备就结,有望推动收入 增长;3)在功率半导体产品行业性供应过剩背景下,产品组合改善有望 稳定利润率。我们目前预计 2024-26 年销售额/盈利年复合增长率分别为 10%/9%。我们维持"中性"评级,等待更具韧性的需求前景或盈利能力 改善的能见度提高。 中国 证券研究 2025年1月15日 中性 688396.SS, 688396 CH 股价(2025年1月15日):45.80元 ▼ 目标价(2025年12月):38.00元 之前(2025年12月):41.00元 证券研究报告 科技 证券分析师:冯令天 AC (86-21) 6106 6359 billy.feng@ipmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730520030005 证券分析师:许日 (86-21) 6106 6318 ri.xu@jpmchase.com 登记编 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) with a 12-month target price of RMB 71.50 [4][5] Core Views - China Duty Free expects **stable sales in Hainan** and **positive year-on-year growth in airport sales** by 2025 [1] - The company is adopting a **"small batch + high frequency" procurement strategy** to maintain normal inventory levels [1] - If more South Korean duty-free operators cease cooperation with Chinese daigou (shopping agents), it could lead to **consumption repatriation**, benefiting Chinese duty-free operators [1] - The current **Hainan duty-free shopping policy**, including the RMB 100,000 annual shopping quota per person, is expected to remain unchanged for the next 3-5 years [2] - The company is increasing its **market share in Hainan**, and **consumption vouchers** are seen as an effective way to boost duty-free sales, with every RMB 1 voucher generating RMB 16-17 in incremental revenue [2] - **Chanel** is considering entering Haitang Bay, which could further enhance the region's appeal [2] - Airport duty-free sales are expected to grow positively in 2025, driven by the recovery of outbound travel and the boom in inbound tourism, though challenges remain, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms and slow introduction of luxury brands [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts **revenue growth** for China Duty Free, with revenues expected to increase from RMB 71.608 billion in 2024E to RMB 113.538 billion in 2028E [9] - **Net profit** is projected to rise from RMB 6.781 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.873 billion in 2028E [9] - **Earnings per share (EPS)** is expected to grow from RMB 3.28 in 2024E to RMB 5.26 in 2028E [9] - The **EBIT margin** is forecasted to remain stable at around 12.4% to 12.7% from 2024E to 2028E [9] - **ROIC (EBIT)** is projected to increase from 33.5% in 2024E to 45.2% in 2028E [9] Valuation and Market Data - The **target price of RMB 71.50** is based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 9.4%, implying a 22x/19x 2024/25E PE ratio [4] - The stock price as of January 15, 2025, was RMB 61.29, with a **52-week range of RMB 53.76 to RMB 89.68** [5] - The company has a **market capitalization of RMB 127 billion (USD 17.3 billion)** and a **free float of 25%** [5] - The **average daily trading volume** is 21,368 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 1.493 billion [5] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The **duty-free industry** faces structural challenges, including competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms, slow introduction of luxury brands, and the dilution effect of downtown duty-free stores [3] - The company is negotiating **airport pickup point fees**, and airports may become shareholders in downtown duty-free stores [3] - The **policy prohibiting individual shareholders** in duty-free entities remains unresolved, with individuals still holding over 30% of RiRi shares [1]