Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for CR Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.29, implying a potential upside of 45.1% [1][2] Core Views - Short-term pressure on beer consumption environment due to weak performance in the catering channel, which accounts for over 40% of beer sales [1] - CR Beer outperformed the industry with mid-to-high-end beer sales exceeding 50% of total sales for the first time in H1 2024 [1] - High-end products such as Heineken, Lao Xue, and Red Label achieved over 20% YoY growth in sales [1] - Management remains confident in long-term growth through premiumization, product differentiation, and regional expansion [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 23.74 billion, a slight decline of 0.5% YoY [1] - Beer business revenue declined by 1.4% YoY to RMB 22.57 billion, with volume down 3.4% but average price up 2.0% [1] - Gross margin for beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8% due to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs [1] - Liquor business revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 1.18 billion, with gross margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.2% YoY to RMB 4.7 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue expected to grow from RMB 39.78 billion in 2024E to RMB 42.70 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 2.2% [3] - Net profit projected to increase from RMB 5.33 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.56 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.1% [3] - EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 1.64 in 2024E to RMB 2.02 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 42.6% in 2024E to 45.4% in 2026E [9] Valuation - Target price of HKD 37.29 based on 19x 2025E P/E, a discount of 1 standard deviation from the 3-year historical average [1] - Current P/E ratio of 14.6x for 2024E, expected to decline to 11.8x by 2026E [3] - Dividend yield forecasted to increase from 3.4% in 2024E to 4.2% in 2026E [3] Industry Context - Beer industry faced significant pressure in 2024, with overall high-endization slowing down [1] - CR Beer's high-end product growth outperformed the industry, with double-digit growth in premium products [1] - Management aims for double-digit volume growth in favorable economic conditions and single-digit growth in normal conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) with a target price of HK$48.00, down from a previous target of HK$56.00 [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is demonstrating resilience amid industry fluctuations and is steadily advancing its "beer and liquor dual empowerment" strategy. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 23.74 billion and net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 4.70 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.5% and +1.2% respectively [11][12]. - The beer business generated revenue of RMB 22.57 billion, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with sales volume and average selling price changing by -3.4% and +2.0% respectively, outperforming the industry average [11][12]. - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%, aided by an enhanced product mix and reduced packaging costs [11][12]. - The baijiu segment saw revenue growth of 20.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.18 billion, with gross profit margin rising by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [11][12]. - The company reported a 25.6% year-on-year increase in net cash inflow from operating activities and raised its interim dividend by 30% to RMB 0.373 per share, increasing the half-year dividend payout ratio from 20.1% to 25.7% [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the next three years are as follows: RMB 39.51 billion in 2024, RMB 40.39 billion in 2025, and RMB 41.12 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 1%, 2%, and 2% respectively [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are projected to be RMB 5.32 billion in 2024, RMB 5.95 billion in 2025, and RMB 6.35 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 3%, 12%, and 7% respectively [4][10]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 1.64 in 2024 to RMB 1.96 in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 18 in 2024 to 15 in 2026 [4][10]. Market Context - The report highlights that macroeconomic policies are likely to boost domestic demand, with the valuation of the consumer staples sector showing signs of recovery from historical lows [6][13]. - The H-share consumer staples industry is currently at a historical PE percentile of 1% since 2011, indicating potential for valuation improvement [6][13]. - As a leading player in the beer industry and the only company combining beer and baijiu, China Resources Beer is positioned to benefit from sector valuation recovery [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating it is expected to benefit from the recovery in the industry and the ongoing high-end strategy [2][80]. Core Viewpoints - China Resources Beer has established itself as the largest beer company in China, with a significant focus on high-end products through its "3+3+3" strategy initiated in 2017 [1][15]. - The company has diversified into the liquor sector, enhancing its brand power and market presence through strategic acquisitions [1][23]. - The beer industry is stabilizing in volume while prices are expected to increase, particularly in the high-end segment, which presents substantial growth opportunities [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of market share among the top five companies, with a CR5 of 92% in 2023 [1][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer was founded in 1993 and has rapidly grown to become the largest beer producer in China, with beer sales reaching 11.15 million kiloliters in 2023 [1]. - The company has undergone several phases of development, including a focus on high-end product offerings and operational efficiency improvements since 2017 [1][15]. Beer Industry Analysis - The beer production peaked in 2013 and has stabilized since 2018, with expectations for future production to remain steady due to demographic trends [1][2]. - The high-end market segment is projected to continue expanding, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range, which is seen as having the most growth potential [1][2]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with the top five companies holding a significant market share, indicating a concentrated market structure [1][46]. Brand and Product Strategy - The company has developed a "4+4" high-end brand matrix, combining local and international brands to cater to diverse consumer segments [1][15]. - The product portfolio covers all price ranges, with a strong emphasis on high-end products that have shown significant sales growth [1][59]. - The company has successfully launched several key products aimed at younger consumers, enhancing its market appeal [1][63]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with beer and liquor revenues contributing 36.86 billion and 2.07 billion RMB, respectively [1][3]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is expected to grow steadily, with projected figures of 5.28 billion, 5.87 billion, and 6.38 billion RMB, respectively [2][80]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong gross margin, benefiting from cost reductions in raw materials and operational efficiencies [2][76].

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the turnover was RMB 23,744 million, a decrease of 0.5% compared to RMB 23,871 million in the same period of 2023[12]. - Profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was RMB 4,705 million, an increase of 1.2% from RMB 4,649 million in 2023[12]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 1.45 from RMB 1.43, reflecting a growth of 1.4%[12]. - The interim dividend per share was RMB 0.373, up from RMB 0.287 in the previous year, representing a 30% increase[12]. - Total equity attributable to shareholders rose to RMB 36,772 million, compared to RMB 34,174 million in 2023, marking a growth of 7.6%[12]. - Consolidated net cash increased significantly to RMB 5,139 million from RMB 426 million, indicating a strong liquidity position[12]. - The current ratio improved to 0.75 from 0.70, demonstrating better short-term financial health[12]. - The Group recorded an unaudited consolidated turnover of RMB 23,744,000,000 for the first half of 2024, benefiting from the premiumisation strategy in the beer and baijiu businesses[21]. - Gross profit margin and EBITDA margin both increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 46.9% and 31.7%, respectively[21]. - Profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 amounted to RMB 4,705,000,000, representing an increase of 1.2% compared to the same period last year[21]. - Net cash from operating activities increased by 25.6% year-on-year during the reporting period[21]. - Overall beer sales volume decreased by 3.4% year-on-year to approximately 6,348,000 kilolitres, outperforming some large-scale beer companies[26]. - The Group's beer business recorded an unaudited consolidated turnover of RMB 22,566,000,000 in the first half of 2024[26]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%[28]. - The baijiu business generated an unaudited consolidated turnover of RMB 1,178,000,000 in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 20.6%[29]. - The gross profit margin for the baijiu business increased by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% in the first half of 2024[31]. - The Group's EBIT margin for the beer business improved significantly by over 10 percentage points compared to the first half of 2019, reaching a record high of 28.3%[51]. Operational Highlights - In the Eastern region, turnover decreased by 2.1% to RMB 10,958 million, while the Southern region saw an increase of 2.6% to RMB 6,038 million[15]. - The Group aims to achieve annual turnover and profit growth while controlling capital expenditure in the second half of 2024[33]. - The Group plans to leverage its experience and resources to build competitive advantages through a dual empowerment model for its "beer + baijiu" businesses[34]. - The Group's strategy includes a comprehensive transformation from scale to quality and from traditional to modern[35]. - The Group will continue to enhance its product portfolio and create a more efficient supply chain to unlock business value and profit growth[37]. - The Group is focused on addressing industry issues in the baijiu sector through collaboration and resource integration[38]. - The Group operated 62 breweries across 24 regions in Mainland China, with an annual production capacity of approximately 19,400,000 kilolitres as of June 30, 2024[51]. - The Group has optimized its production capacity by ceasing operations at one brewery and starting operations at a new intelligent brewery in Shandong[49]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The Group's cash and bank deposits amounted to RMB 6,517,000,000 as of June 30, 2024, with borrowings totaling RMB 1,378,000,000[61]. - The Group maintained a net cash position as of June 30, 2024, and December 31, 2023[61]. - Net cash from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 6,012 million, an increase of 25.8% compared to RMB 4,786 million for the same period in 2023[83]. - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 1,167 million for the first half of 2024, significantly lower than RMB 8,768 million in the same period of 2023[83]. - The company reported a net cash (used in)/from financing activities of RMB (3,827) million for the first half of 2024, compared to RMB 6,755 million in the same period of 2023[83]. Employee and Operational Costs - Employee costs for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were approximately RMB 2,882 million, consistent with the previous year[72]. - Total staff costs, including directors' emoluments, amounted to RMB 2,882 million, an increase of 3.6% from RMB 2,783 million in the previous year[109]. - The total depreciation expense for fixed assets in the first half of 2024 was RMB 686 million, compared to RMB 686 million in the same period of 2023[119]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The interim financial information has been prepared in accordance with the applicable disclosure requirements of the Listing Rules and HKAS 34[89]. - The auditor's report for the financial statements was unqualified, indicating no significant issues were raised[91]. - The Group's financial reporting and internal control systems are overseen by the Audit Committee, ensuring reliability and compliance[157]. - The Group's risk management and internal control systems were reviewed, and no significant concerns were identified that could materially affect operations or financial reporting[157]. Environmental and Safety Initiatives - The Group completed 431 designated EHS rectification projects with a total project fund of RMB 142 million declared, focusing on major safety and environmental protection risks[173]. - In the first half of 2024, the Group conducted 62 fire safety inspections, 35 gas safety inspections, and 102 inspections on hazardous operation projects, significantly improving safety management capabilities[175]. - The Group identified and rectified 39 environmental issues during inspections of four plants in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in the first half of 2024[186]. - The Liangshan Plant in Sichuan was certified as the Group's first carbon-neutral plant in April 2024, followed by the Bengbu Plant in June 2024[192]. - The Group's total greenhouse gas emissions were 406,000 tonnes CO2 equivalent, with a greenhouse gas emission intensity of 66.87 kg CO2 equivalent per kiloliter output[193]. - The carbon emission intensity per unit of beer products decreased by 7%, and green power accounted for 34.6% of the total energy used[193]. Market and Investor Relations - The Group's closing price on the HKD counter was HK$26.25 per share, and on the RMB counter, it was RMB24.60 per share, with a total market capitalisation of approximately HK$85.16 billion as of the end of June 2024[165]. - In the first half of 2024, the Group held approximately 245 meetings with over 2,270 fund managers and analysts to strengthen investor relations[162]. - The Group's investor relations activities included online and offline presentations, enhancing communication with existing and potential investors[162]. - The Group received eight awards in the 2024 All-Asia Executive Team survey by "Institutional Investor" magazine and five awards in the 2024 Asian Excellence Awards by "Corporate Governance Asia" magazine[164].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Resources Beer (0291) [3][10]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with an unexpected increase in interim dividends. The company is entering a new phase of high-end beer positioning, and the performance of major liquor products is impressive. Future plans include addressing structural shortcomings [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1H24, the company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.53%. The EBITDA was 6.365 billion yuan, up 1.92% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20% year-on-year. Overall performance was in line with expectations [3]. - The interim dividend per share was 0.373 yuan, with a total payout of 1.21 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% and a payout ratio increase of 6 percentage points to 26% [3]. Beer Segment - In 1H24, beer sales volume was 6.35 million kiloliters, down 3.39% year-on-year. However, sales in the premium and above segments grew by double digits, with brands like Heineken and Snow experiencing over 20% growth [3]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year to 3,554 yuan per kiloliter. The cost per ton of beer rose by 0.9%, while the gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%, and the EBITDA margin reached a historical high of 28.2%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Liquor Segment - The liquor business generated a revenue of 1.178 billion yuan in 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. However, EBITDA for this segment was 48 million yuan, down 32.39% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 67.6%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. The sales volume of major liquor products grew by over 50%, accounting for about 70% of liquor revenue [3]. - Future plans include enhancing the product lineup, focusing on key markets for sauce liquor, and expanding both banquet and non-banquet channels [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a target price of HKD 28.37, based on a current price of HKD 23.05 [1]. Core Insights - The beer business is under short-term pressure but continues its long-term trend towards premiumization. In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 23.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - Despite external factors impacting sales, the company’s premiumization strategy is driving an increase in unit price, with beer sales volume down 3.4% year-on-year to 6.348 million tons. However, premium and above products maintained double-digit growth [2]. - The overall gross margin improved to 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer segment's gross margin at 45.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was CNY 23.74 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.71 billion, up 1.2% year-on-year [2]. - Beer sales volume decreased by 3.4% to 6.348 million tons, while the average price per ton increased by 2% to CNY 3,554 [2]. - The white liquor segment saw revenue of CNY 1.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [2]. Profitability - The overall gross margin improved to 46.9%, with the beer segment's gross margin at 45.8% [2]. - The EBITDA margin for the beer business increased by 1.1 percentage points to 28.2%, while the overall net profit margin rose by 0.3 percentage points to 20.9% [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects steady revenue growth in the second half of 2024, driven by a low base effect and active cost control [2]. - The long-term strategy focuses on the dual empowerment of beer and white liquor, with expectations for continued growth in premium products [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are CNY 1.62, CNY 1.76, and CNY 1.90, respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with beer business revenue at 22.566 billion RMB, down 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion RMB, an increase of 1.2%. The interim dividend declared is 0.373 RMB per share, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - External demand is under pressure, leading to a decline in beer volume but an increase in price, with structural upgrades showing resilience. Beer sales volume in H1 2024 was 6.348 million kiloliters, down 3.4% year-on-year. The average price of beer is estimated at 3,554.8 RMB per kiloliter, up 2.0% year-on-year. The sales of premium and above beer products grew over 10%, with certain brands seeing growth rates exceeding 20% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved, with a gross margin of 46.9% in H1 2024, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business gross margin was 45.8%, driven by increased prices and reduced packaging costs [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB, with beer revenue at 22.566 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.71 billion RMB. The beer sales volume decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 2.0% [4][6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 39.78 billion, 40.89 billion, and 42.00 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 5.33 billion, 5.93 billion, and 6.43 billion RMB [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.2% in H1 2024. The EBITDA margin improved to 27.0%, with the beer business achieving an EBITDA of 6.365 billion RMB, up 2.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 45.8%, attributed to price increases and lower packaging costs [4][5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is valued using a segmented valuation method, with the beer business assigned a PE ratio of 16-20 times and the liquor business a PE ratio of 10-15 times. The estimated fair value range for the stock is 25.71-32.38 RMB per share, or 27.94-35.20 HKD per share [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion RMB, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [5] - Beer revenue reached 22.566 billion RMB, down 1.4% year-on-year, with beer sales volume at 6.348 million kiloliters, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to macroeconomic fluctuations and adverse weather in certain regions [6] - The average selling price of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year to 3,554 RMB per kiloliter, driven by continuous product structure upgrades [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer business gross margin at 45.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [7] - The company expects better sales growth in the second half of the year due to a lower comparative base, despite a challenging beer consumption environment [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB, with a net profit of 4.705 billion RMB [5] - The beer segment's revenue was 22.566 billion RMB, with a sales volume of 6.348 million kiloliters [6] - The company’s EBIT margin improved to 26.8%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end and above products, which saw a sales volume growth of over 10% year-on-year [6] - The Heineken brand experienced a sales increase of over 20% in the first half of 2024, supported by national expansion efforts [8] - The white wine business achieved over 20% revenue growth, with high-end products contributing significantly [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross profit margin improved due to a decrease in packaging costs and product upgrades [7] - The administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting cost control measures [7] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to ongoing challenges in beer demand and the white wine sector [8]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|华润啤酒（00291） 2024 年半年报点评： 高端化延续推进，啤白双赋能成效初显 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 考虑到消费弱复苏，我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 396.40/411.35/426.33 亿 元，同比增速分别为 1.82%/3.77%/3.64%，归母净利润分别为 53.79/56.65/59.61 亿元，同比 增速分别为 4.39%/5.30%/5.23%，对应三年 CAGR 为 4.97%，对应 2024-2026 年 PE14/13/13X。 考虑到公司高端化延续推进，啤白双赋能成效初显，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月22日 华润啤酒(00291) 2024 年半年报点评： 高端化延续推进，啤白双赋 ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 08 月 20 日 公司点评 买入/维持 华润啤酒(00291) 目标价: 31.70 昨收盘:24.00 华润啤酒：啤酒业务高端化延续，白酒业务稳步发展 ◼ 走势比较 (50%) (36%) (22%) (8%) 6% 20% 23/8/2123/11/124/1/1224/3/2424/6/424/8/15 华润啤酒 恒生指数 ◼ 股票数据 总股本(亿股) 32.4 总市值(亿港元) 778.6 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 48.6/22.9 相关研究报告 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030019 事件：公司公布中报业绩，2024H1 实现收入 237.44 亿元，同比-0.5%， 实现归母净利润 47.05 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。还原 1900 万元固定资产减 值亏损和一次性员工补偿及安置费用，2024H1 核心净利润 47.2 亿元，同 比持平。 上半年销量略有 ...