Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (0291.HK) with a current price of HKD 30.05 [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see both volume and price increases in 2025, with a high certainty of profit margin improvement [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 38.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of CNY 4.74 billion, down 8% year-on-year [5][11] - The beer sales volume in 2024 was 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.5% to CNY 3,355 per kiloliter [6][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's core EBIT for 2024 was CNY 6.344 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer business margin at 41.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [7] - The company distributed dividends totaling CNY 2.466 billion in 2024, with a payout ratio of 52%, expected to rise to over 60% in the future [7] Business Segments - The high-end beer segment showed strong growth, with sales of premium products increasing by over 9% year-on-year [6] - The white wine business achieved a revenue growth of 4% in 2024, with a significant contribution from high-end products, which accounted for over 70% of the segment's revenue [6][10] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for double-digit revenue growth in its white wine business and plans to optimize its product pricing and brand strategy [10] - The company introduced a "Three Precision Principles" strategy to streamline operations and reduce costs, which is expected to enhance profitability [10] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is CNY 5.308 billion, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to focus on efficiency improvements and high-end product offerings, with a projected recovery in revenue and profit performance in the coming years [7][8] - The beer business is anticipated to benefit from a shift towards premium products, with sales volume and revenue outperforming the industry [7][8] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend payouts [8] Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue was 38,932 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. In 2024, revenue is projected to decrease slightly to 38,635 million RMB, a decline of 0.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 5,153 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 18.62%. For 2024, it is expected to drop to 4,739 million RMB, a decrease of 8.03% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.59 RMB, projected to decrease to 1.46 RMB in 2024, before recovering to 1.63 RMB in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The beer segment's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 36,486 million RMB, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [7][8] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with sales of premium beers increasing by 9% year-on-year [7][8] - The white liquor segment is also undergoing optimization, with a projected revenue of 21.49 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a growth of 3.97% [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its dual focus on beer and white liquor, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 52.76 billion RMB, 57.22 billion RMB, and 61.34 billion RMB respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.33%, 8.45%, and 7.21% [8] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a strong growth trajectory in its premium beer offerings, with a focus on cost optimization and efficiency improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 38.635 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.739 billion, down 8.0% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw revenue of 14.891 billion, a decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit of 0.34 million, a significant drop of 93.3% [1]. - The beer segment showed strong performance, particularly in high-end products, with revenue of 36.486 billion, down 1.0% year-on-year. The sales volume and price per ton decreased by 2.5% and increased by 1.5%, respectively. High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% [1][2]. - The white liquor segment achieved revenue of 2.149 billion, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a notable 35% increase in sales of high-end products contributing over 70% to the segment's revenue [2]. - The company realized a gross margin of 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and an EBITDA of 8.694 billion, up 3% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 22.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [3]. - The company plans to continue its high-end strategy and implement a "Three Precision" management strategy, expecting a recovery in growth due to improved dining demand and sustained cost benefits [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 38.635 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1%. The net profit was 4.739 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8% [6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 5.243 billion, 5.826 billion, and 6.568 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 11.1%, and 12.7% [4][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.97 in 2024 to 13.00 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [6][13].

本报记者 党鹏 成都报道 3月18日午间，华润啤酒（00291.HK）发布公告，集团营业额人民币386.35亿元，同比减少0.76%；股 东应占溢利47.39亿元，同比减少8.03%。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，按照目前各大啤酒企业公布的2024年财务数据，百威亚太、重庆啤酒在 2024年业绩呈现下滑，青岛啤酒在去年前三季度营收下滑。 燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计2024年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润10亿 ～11亿元，比上年同期增长55.11%～70.62%。此外，公司在2024年前三季度销量为344.73万千升，2023 年前三季度的销量为343.09万千升，同比略有增长，在啤酒行业已经算不俗的表现。 华润还是靠高端支撑 华润啤酒方面称，面对内外部环境多变、消费分化的存缩量波动时代，集团于2024年实现啤酒销量约 1087.4万千升，表现跑赢主要竞争对手。数据显示，2023年华润啤酒的销售总量为1115.1万千升，显然 销量有所下滑。 此外，华润集团高端化发展持续发力，高档及以上啤酒销量较去年同期取得超过9%增长，其中，"喜 力?"在去年高基数的情况下仍取得近两成增长，"老 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the beer upgrade continues while the white liquor business benefits from synergy. The company has shown resilience in its performance despite a slight decline in revenue and profit [6]. - The company is undergoing a structural upgrade in its beer business, with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive profit growth [6]. - The white liquor segment is also expected to contribute positively to profits if economic conditions improve [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million RMB, with a slight decline to 38,635 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 39,286 million RMB in 2025 [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 5,153 million RMB in 2023 to 4,739 million RMB in 2024, before increasing to 5,279 million RMB in 2025 [5][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 16.6 for 2023, decreasing to 14.0 by 2027, indicating a potential for value appreciation [5]. Business Performance Insights - The beer business generated revenue of 36,486 million RMB in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [6]. - The high-end beer segment (priced above 10 RMB) saw a 9% increase in sales volume, with notable growth in brands like Heineken [6]. - The white liquor business achieved revenue of 2,150 million RMB in 2024, with a 35% increase in sales volume for the flagship product, indicating strong market performance [6].

大和发表报告指，重申对华润啤酒的"买入"评级，目标价由35.8港元上调至38港元。大和指，虽然去年 宏观环境充满挑战，公司的核心EBITDA仍按年增长3%至87亿元，受惠于啤酒平均售价扩张1.5%。尽 管去年基数较高，但润啤今年一至二月的啤酒销量仍恢复按年增长，显示下游需求逐渐复苏。至于投资 者对2025年来自百威啤酒在8元至12元产品市场竞争加剧的忧虑，公司管理层表示有信心捍卫其市场份 额，并强调其强大的品牌组合及有效的供应链和渠道管理。该行相信，由于润啤品牌的产品组合提升更 为明显，因此润啤今年推动平均售价和利润率扩张的能见度将高于同业。 大行评级｜大和：上调华润啤酒目标价至38港元 相 信利润率扩张的能见度高于同业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see an improvement in its performance in 2025, with early signs of recovery observed in the first two months of the year. The report anticipates an increase in both revenue and profit margins, particularly in the beer segment, driven by a recovery in consumption scenarios and effective management strategies [4][5]. - The beer business is projected to recover in terms of sales volume and profit margins, with a focus on high-end products showing resilience. The white liquor segment is also expected to grow, supported by strong sales of key products [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to increase from 38,635 million RMB in 2024 to 40,395 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.6% [4][5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 4,739 million RMB in 2024 to 5,388 million RMB in 2025, with a profit growth rate of 13.7% [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 42.6% in 2024 to 43.1% in 2025 [4][5]. - The diluted EPS is anticipated to increase from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 1.66 RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 18.15 to 15.96 [4][5]. Business Segments - **Beer Segment**: The report highlights a decline in beer revenue in 2024 but anticipates a recovery in 2025, supported by increased consumption and a focus on premium products. The average selling price (ASP) is expected to grow, contributing to improved profit margins [4][5]. - **White Liquor Segment**: The white liquor business is projected to grow, driven by strong sales of high-end products. The report notes that the product structure is favorable, with key products significantly contributing to revenue [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future revenue projections indicate growth, with expected revenues of 403.81 billion, 418.39 billion, and 431.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 386.35 billion, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 47.39 billion, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 45.09 billion, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 increased by 67% to 69.28 billion [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue for 2024 was 364.86 billion, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% and other premium brands seeing significant growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 21.49 billion in 2024, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA rising by 7.9% to 8.47 billion [8] - The "Summary" brand's growth strategy includes brand promotion and inventory management [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a focus on high-end development while streamlining operations and managing costs effectively, leading to favorable profit performance [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.72, 1.95, and 2.20 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future earnings are projected to improve as the company maintains its focus on high-end products while optimizing operations and costs [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with notable increases in Heineken and other premium brands [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with an EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]

中信证券此前表示，预计2025年啤酒原材料价格波动幅度小于2024年，部分原材料价格仍有下行空间如 大麦和玻璃等，但铝价近期呈现上涨趋势，或将抵消大麦等原材料价格下行所带来的成本下降空间，整 体来看，该行预计2025年啤酒成本相对稳定，大麦延续2024年的价格下行仍能带来一定的成本端缓解， 有望提升酒企的盈利水平，看好酒企在消费政策端的持续刺激、餐饮场景的恢复下实现2025年的业绩企 稳增长。 港股异动 | 啤酒股午后涨幅扩大 百威亚太(01876)涨 近7% 华润啤酒(00291)涨超6% 消息面上，华润啤酒日前发布2024年业绩报告，2024年综合营业额为386.35亿元，股东应占溢利47.39亿 元。2025年前2个月啤酒销量同比实现个位数增长。华润啤酒表示对2025年啤酒业务争取营业额增长和 利润恢复较快增长更有信心，整体表现维持审慎乐观预期。花旗指出，中国政府促进消费政策预期可于 今年第二至第三季为餐饮行业带来正面作用，强化了该行对消费板块更为正面的看法，华润啤酒管理层 亦对今年前景感到乐观，表示观察到首两个月消费者信心有所恢复，休闲餐饮场所店内消费趋于稳定。 该行强调百威亚太及华润啤酒都仍是其青睐 ...