Group 1 - Tencent Holdings has seen continuous net buying from southbound funds for 7 days, with a cumulative net buying amount of 9.729 billion HKD, while its stock price has decreased by 0.74% [1] - On March 3, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 62.316 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 5.016 billion HKD [1] - On the same day, Tencent Holdings had a trading volume of 9.083 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net buying amount of 1.852 billion HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [1]. Core Insights - Tencent has launched the "Lightning War" plan in February 2025, integrating the DeepSeek-R1 model into over ten core products, enhancing search, office, and customer service capabilities [3][4]. - The restructuring of Tencent's AI products into the Cloud and Smart Industry Group (CSIG) aims to leverage B-end technology capabilities with C-end product scenarios, enhancing competitive differentiation in the AI market [4]. - Prosus has reduced its stake in Tencent to 23.89% as of February 21, 2025, and plans to continue reducing its holdings, which may impact Tencent's stock performance [5]. - The game "Peacekeeper Elite" has integrated DeepSeek technology, allowing players to interact with a digital spokesperson for real-time tactical guidance, marking a significant application of AI in gaming [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's current stock price is 497 HKD, with a market capitalization of 4.56 trillion HKD and a total share capital of 9.179 billion [2]. AI Integration - Tencent's AI capabilities are being integrated into various products, including WeChat and QQ Browser, with features like intelligent assistants and enhanced search functionalities [3][4]. Shareholding Changes - Prosus has reduced its holdings in Tencent, which may lead to a decrease in stock price, but Tencent's stock buyback plans and AI business growth could mitigate this impact [5]. Gaming Sector - The integration of DeepSeek technology into "Peacekeeper Elite" represents a significant advancement in AI application within the gaming industry, enhancing user interaction and experience [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3] Core Views - Tencent is expected to benefit significantly from the revaluation of AI applications and cloud business, leveraging its advantages in application scenarios and data [6][8] - The company has made organizational adjustments to enhance its AI product lines, integrating multiple AI applications into its cloud business group [16][20] - Tencent's AI applications are already showing positive impacts on advertising and cloud revenue, with AI-driven enhancements leading to increased efficiency and user engagement [25][28] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2022: 554,552 million RMB - 2023: 609,015 million RMB (9.8% YoY growth) - 2024E: 657,853 million RMB (8.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: 723,411 million RMB (10.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 780,334 million RMB (7.9% YoY growth) [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2022: 115,649 million RMB - 2023: 157,688 million RMB (36.4% YoY growth) - 2024E: 224,710 million RMB (42.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: 245,071 million RMB (9.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 280,292 million RMB (14.4% YoY growth) [7] AI Applications and Cloud Business - Tencent's AI applications are integrated with DeepSeek, enhancing capabilities across various services such as social search, financial services, and enterprise solutions [20][21] - The company is focusing on AI-driven advertising, which has already shown significant growth in user engagement and revenue [25][26] - Tencent's cloud revenue is expected to grow as AI applications become more prevalent, contributing over 10% to its IaaS revenue [28] Organizational Adjustments - Recent structural changes at Tencent have moved several AI product lines into the cloud business group, indicating a strategic shift towards unified management of AI applications and infrastructure [16][18] - This adjustment aims to clarify cost and revenue responsibilities while enhancing the efficiency of AI application deployment [16][17] Investment Portfolio and Market Position - Tencent has invested in various internet companies that possess unique scenarios and private data, which are expected to increase in value as AI applications mature [14] - The company is positioned well in the competitive landscape, with a rich ecosystem of applications and a strong user base, allowing it to capitalize on the growing AI market [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][19] Core Viewpoints - The integration of AI search capabilities into WeChat, along with the access to Deepseek, is expected to enhance user experience and expand Tencent's ecosystem value [2][3][12] - The domestic search market is currently dominated by Baidu, but the introduction of AI features is leading to a shift in user preferences, with WeChat's monthly active users reaching 800 million in 2022 and over 100 million daily active users in 2023 [2][8][12] - Tencent's AI strategy positions it well for the future, leveraging its user base and scenarios to capitalize on AI advancements, particularly with the Deepseek integration [3][4][14] Summary by Sections AI Integration and User Engagement - WeChat's AI search feature, which is currently in a grayscale testing phase, is expected to significantly enhance user engagement by providing more powerful search capabilities [6][11] - The integration of Deepseek across various Tencent products, including Tencent Yuanbao and QQ Browser, indicates a comprehensive approach to embedding AI functionalities [7][11] Financial Projections and Revenue Potential - The expected advertising revenue from WeChat search is projected to be between 1 to 2 billion yuan in 2024, with a current ARPU of 185 yuan, indicating room for growth compared to competitors [4][17][18] - Tencent's adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 221.9 billion, 249.2 billion, and 273.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 17, and 15 [5][19][23] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that while Baidu remains the market leader with a 54% share, the rise of AI-enhanced search engines is creating new competition, with Microsoft Bing increasing its market share from 17% to 30% [8][9] - The report emphasizes Tencent's unique position in the AI landscape, suggesting that its ecosystem advantages will allow it to effectively compete and innovate in the AI space [3][14][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent has integrated the DeepSeek-R1 model into WeChat, enhancing its AI capabilities and providing users with real-time, accurate answers while ensuring user privacy [3] - The Tencent Yuanbao AI assistant has been upgraded to support dual models, improving response speed by 40% and enabling complex document processing with a 60% efficiency increase [4][5] - Tencent's game "Honor of Kings" regained the top position in global mobile game revenue in January 2025, with revenue nearly doubling from the previous month due to successful marketing strategies [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's current stock price is HKD 474.8, with a market capitalization of HKD 4.54 trillion and a total share capital of 9.179 billion [2] AI Developments - WeChat has begun testing the DeepSeek-R1 model, allowing users to access AI search features that integrate various content sources [3] - The Tencent Yuanbao AI assistant now operates with both the DeepSeek-R1 model and a mixed model, enhancing its capabilities for deep reasoning and real-time updates [4] - Tencent Docs has also integrated the DeepSeek-R1 model, improving document processing efficiency and supporting various document formats [5] Gaming Performance - "Honor of Kings" achieved significant revenue growth, reclaiming its position as the top-grossing mobile game globally, driven by popular in-game events and collaborations [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the new gaming cycle and the commercialization of the WeChat ecosystem are expected to continue driving growth. The integration of AI models like DeepSeek into WeChat is anticipated to enhance user experience and open up new monetization avenues [4][6] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 193 billion, 217 billion, and 236 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 21.0, 23.6, and 25.7 CNY. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 21.9, 19.5, and 17.9 for the same years [4][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2022 was 554,552 million CNY, with a projected increase to 659,038 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 8.2% [7] - Net profit for 2022 was 188,243 million CNY, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 to 192,984 million CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 67.5% [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 48.1% in 2023 to 54.4% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [7] - The report notes that the WeChat ecosystem's monetization efficiency is continuously improving, with the GMV of WeChat small stores expected to be 1.92 times that of 2023 by the end of 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [1]. Core Insights - Tencent Cloud has launched the DeepSeek model API, enhancing its competitiveness in AI and cloud computing by providing high-performance services and simplifying development processes [2]. - WeChat's Spring Festival data shows strong demand for digital red envelopes, indicating the growing penetration of WeChat e-commerce in less saturated markets [3]. - WeChat Pay has seen significant growth during the Spring Festival, particularly in cross-border payments, with a 134% year-on-year increase in transaction volume from inbound tourists [4]. - Tencent has announced a new patent for a large language model training method, which improves the model's generalization ability and accuracy, benefiting applications requiring high precision [5]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing - Tencent Cloud has introduced the DeepSeek model API, becoming the first domestic cloud provider to support this feature along with online search capabilities. This move is expected to attract more enterprises and developers due to its optimized performance and simplified development processes [2]. E-commerce - The WeChat team reported a surge in the use of digital red envelopes during the Spring Festival, with notable growth in gift categories such as snacks and books, indicating a unique competitive advantage in less saturated markets [3]. Payment Services - WeChat Pay experienced a robust performance during the Spring Festival, with over 1 billion custom red envelope designs created by users. The service saw a 134% increase in transaction volume from inbound tourists, particularly in regions like Luxembourg [4]. Artificial Intelligence - Tencent's new patent for a large language model introduces a comparative learning mechanism that enhances the model's ability to distinguish between correct and incorrect expressions, which is crucial for applications like intelligent customer service [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 430 [4][56]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 1681.7 billion in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 8.4%. This growth is primarily driven by the gaming and online advertising sectors [1][43]. - The gross margin is projected to be 53.5%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, with a gross profit of RMB 900.2 billion, reflecting a 16.1% increase [1][49]. - The operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 525 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.7%, with a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 549.3 billion, also up 28.7% year-over-year [1][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Value-Added Services - The revenue from value-added services is expected to reach RMB 766.1 billion in Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 10.9%. Game revenue is projected at RMB 475.3 billion, reflecting a 16.2% growth [1][43]. - Domestic game revenue is anticipated to be RMB 319.4 billion, up 18.3% year-over-year, driven by popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [12][25]. - New game releases such as "Valorant" and "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" are expected to contribute to revenue growth in Q4 2024 [13][19]. 2. Social Network - Social network revenue is projected to be RMB 290.9 billion in Q4 2024, a 3.1% increase year-over-year, driven by the growth of WeChat mini-games [1][26]. - The number of monthly active users for mini-games reached 500 million, with daily active users at 100 million, showing a 10% year-over-year growth [26][28]. 3. Marketing Services - The marketing services revenue is expected to be RMB 337.4 billion in Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 13.2% [30][34]. - The growth is anticipated to be supported by the recovery of social retail sales and the integration of WeChat's ecosystem for enhanced marketing efficiency [34][35]. 4. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is projected at RMB 558.4 billion, reflecting a 2.7% year-over-year growth [2][37]. - The improvement is attributed to a slight recovery in commercial payment services and stable cloud service revenues [37][38]. 5. Financial Performance - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue growth, with a projected Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2,223.2 billion for 2024, reflecting a 41.0% growth year-over-year [58]. - The report highlights the potential for operational leverage to be released as high-margin businesses like video accounts and live e-commerce continue to grow [55][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 430 HKD [4][56]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1681.7 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.4% driven by strong performance in value-added services, particularly in gaming and online advertising [1][43]. - The gross margin is projected to be 53.5%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross profit of 900.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.1% increase [1][49]. - Operating profit is forecasted at 525 billion RMB, a 28.7% increase year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 549.3 billion RMB, also up 28.7% [1][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Value-Added Services - Gaming revenue is expected to reach 766.1 billion RMB in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. Domestic gaming revenue is projected at 319.4 billion RMB, up 18.3% [1][12]. - Key games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" continue to perform well, supported by new game launches such as "Path of Exile 2" and "One Piece: Odyssey" [1][17]. 2. Marketing Services - Online advertising revenue is anticipated to be 337.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. The growth rate is expected to slow compared to Q3 2024 due to macroeconomic conditions [1][30]. - The integration of WeChat's ecosystem is expected to enhance marketing efficiency and attract more advertisers [1][34]. 3. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is projected at 558.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. This growth is attributed to improvements in commercial payment services and stable cloud service revenues [2][37]. - The launch of AI-driven services is expected to enhance the company's offerings in the financial technology sector [2][38]. 4. Financial Performance - The company is expected to maintain a steady revenue growth trajectory, with significant contributions from high-margin businesses such as gaming and WeChat video accounts [1][43]. - The operating leverage is anticipated to continue releasing as the company benefits from its diverse revenue streams [1][48]. 5. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 slightly downward, reflecting a robust internet platform amidst a weak macroeconomic recovery [3][56]. - The current price corresponds to a Non-IFRS P/E ratio of 15 for 2024, 13 for 2025, and 12 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [3][58].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$525 0, implying a 34 7% upside from the current price of HK$389 80 [1][3] Core Views - Tencent is expected to deliver solid earnings performance in 4Q24, driven by strong games revenue growth and resilient marketing business [1] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow by 8% YoY to RMB167 6bn, with non-IFRS net income growing by 29% YoY to RMB55 2bn in 4Q24 [1] - Long-term growth initiatives like Weixin e-commerce and AI are viewed positively, with management optimistic about Weixin's role in the e-commerce ecosystem and AI as a key growth driver for the marketing business [1][8] Earnings Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB554 6bn in FY22 to RMB755 8bn in FY26, with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB115 6bn in FY22 to RMB257 6bn in FY26 [2] - Adjusted EPS is projected to rise from RMB12 13 in FY22 to RMB26 60 in FY26 [2] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 55 2x in FY22 to 17 4x in FY26, reflecting improved earnings growth [2] Business Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY24-26E are largely unchanged, with slight downward revisions of -0 1% to -0 3% [9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 53 1% in FY24E to 54 4% in FY26E, driven by higher-margin games and marketing businesses [9] - Operating margin is projected to increase from 31 9% in FY24E to 33 7% in FY26E [9] - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$525 0 includes valuations for games (HK$199 9), SNS (HK$29 4), marketing (HK$110 3), fintech (HK$82 5), cloud (HK$22 0), strategic investments (HK$68 4), and net cash (HK$12 7) [10][11][12][13][14] Key Takeaways from NDR - Weixin e-commerce is positioned as a connector in the ecosystem, leveraging third-party services and technology to reduce transaction frictions [8] - AI remains a key growth driver for the marketing business, with Tencent maintaining leadership due to its large user base and use cases [8] - Tencent's inclusion in the US CMC list and removal from the USTR "Notorious Markets List" are seen as positive developments [8] Peer Comparison - Tencent's gaming business is valued at an 18x 2025E PE, in line with global peers like NetEase and Electronic Arts [16] - The marketing business is valued at a 20x 2025E PE, reflecting its resilient ad revenue growth supported by Weixin Video Account and Mini Program [16] - Fintech and cloud businesses are valued at premiums to peers, reflecting Tencent's strong market position and growth potential [16][17] Strategic Investments - Tencent's strategic investments are valued at HK$68 4 per share, with significant stakes in companies like PDD Holdings (14 1%), Sea Ltd (18 2%), and Spotify (8 4%) [19] - A 30% holding company discount is applied to the fair value of equity investments [19]