Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 583, indicating a potential upside of 8.0% from the current price of HKD 540 [1][4][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to rapidly integrate into Tencent's ecosystem, contributing to revenue growth. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 713.8 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The report emphasizes strong performance in various segments, including a 20% increase in gaming revenue and a 60%+ growth in video advertising revenue, driven by AI enhancements [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline gradually from 9.8% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2027 [3][52]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][52]. Segment Performance - The report details segment performance for Q4 2024: - Total revenue reached RMB 172,446 million, up 11% year-on-year - Online gaming revenue increased by 23% year-on-year, with local games contributing significantly - Marketing services revenue grew by 17%, driven by video and search advertising [8][9]. - The report notes that the gross margin improved to 53% due to the growth of high-margin businesses [7][8]. Valuation - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025, with a projected share buyback of HKD 80 billion and dividends of HKD 41 billion, enhancing shareholder returns [7][8].

个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 540.00 | 港元 | 583.00↑ | +8.0% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | | AI+应用或在腾讯生态最快落地，上调目标价 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 157,688 | 222,703 | 244,774 | 268,648 | 289,453 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 16.33 | 23. ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：借 AI 东风，腾讯能否 重回 700？ 业绩超预期，宣布派发股息及回购：公司 4Q24 收入人民币 1,725 亿 元，同比增长 11%，高于市场预期 2.3%；毛利率 52.6%，同比提升 3 个 百分点，各分部毛利率同比均有改善；调整后净利润为 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%，高于市场预期；调整后净利率 32.1%，4Q23 为 27.5%， 3Q24 为 35.8%。公司宣布派发每股股息 4.5 港元，在 2025 年至少回购 800 亿港元股份，两者约合 2.4%的股东回报。 本土游戏表现亮眼，预计 1Q25 保持强劲势头：4Q24 本土游戏收入同 比增长 23%至 332 亿元，增长强劲，好于我们预期，主要得益于去年 低基数以及旗舰游戏的健康表现。根据 Sensor Tower 数据监测，《王者 荣耀》在今年一季度目前表现依然亮眼，1 月和 2 月成为该游戏自 2021 年以来收入最高的两个月。国际游戏收入同比增长 15%至 160 亿元， 主要受《PUBG MOBILE》《荒野乱斗》等游戏推动。低基数效应在上半 年仍将持续，且递延收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 660.3 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8%. The Non-IFRS net profit reached 222.7 billion RMB, up 41% year-over-year, while the profit attributable to equity holders was 194.1 billion RMB, marking a 68% increase [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI integration in its gaming and advertising sectors, with new AI-driven games and enhanced advertising platforms anticipated to drive growth [8]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was 76.7 billion RMB, a significant increase of 221% year-over-year, with plans to further increase spending in 2025 [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the media industry, with a current H-share price of HK$540.00 and a market capitalization of approximately 378.76 billion RMB [2]. - Major shareholders include MIH Holdings B.V., which holds 24.43% of the shares [2]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with financial technology and enterprise services accounting for 31.3%, online gaming 30.1%, social networking 18.8%, and online advertising 18.5% [4]. Financial Performance - For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 172.4 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit for the quarter was 51.5 billion RMB, up 24% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 221.6 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.18% [12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to leverage its stronghold in the AI search market, particularly through its WeChat platform, which has a daily search volume of nearly 600 million, compared to Baidu's 1.5 billion [9]. - The integration of AI is expected to enhance user engagement and advertising effectiveness, potentially leading to significant revenue growth in the advertising segment [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 660.3 billion for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 8%. The Non-IFRS net profit reached RMB 222.7 billion, up 41% year-over-year, while the profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 194.1 billion, reflecting a 68% increase [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI integration in its gaming and advertising sectors, with new AI-driven games and enhanced advertising platforms likely to drive growth [8][9]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures in 2025, with a focus on AI-related research and development, and has set a target for share buybacks of at least HK$ 80 billion in 2025 [9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the media industry, with a market capitalization of approximately HK$ 378.76 billion and a current share price of HK$ 540.00 [2]. - Major shareholders include MIH Holdings B.V., which holds 24.43% of the shares [2]. - The company's stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 101.73% increase [2]. Financial Performance - For Q4, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 172.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit for the quarter was RMB 51.5 billion, up 24% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s gaming revenue in Q4 grew by 23% to RMB 33.2 billion, driven by both existing popular games and new releases [9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to equity holders for 2025 is RMB 221.6 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.18% [12]. Product Mix - The company's revenue is diversified across several segments: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services (31.3%), Online Games (30.1%), Social Networks (18.8%), and Online Advertising (18.5%) [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Tencent Holdings to HKD 630, maintaining a "buy" rating, driven by optimism regarding its returns on artificial intelligence investments, growth in advertising revenue, demand in both enterprise and consumer markets, and improved profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Tencent's capital expenditure is expected to be approximately RMB 94 billion this year, primarily for GPU procurement [1] - Enterprise service revenue is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year [1] - Overall revenue and operating profit under non-International Financial Reporting Standards are expected to increase by 10% and 16% respectively, with an operating profit margin reaching 38% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 660.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 194.1 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year [4] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by strong performance in gaming and the commercialization of WeChat [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 216.9 billion yuan, 236.3 billion yuan, and 255.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 660.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [7] - Net profit for 2024 is 194.1 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 68.4% year-on-year [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.6 yuan, 25.7 yuan, and 27.8 yuan respectively [4][7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.3, 19.5, and 18.0 respectively [4][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 52.9% in 2024 to 55.1% by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 660.3 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%, and a net profit of 194.1 billion CNY, which is a significant increase of 68% year-on-year [4] - The strong performance in 2024 Q4 includes a revenue of 172.4 billion CNY (up 10% year-on-year) and a net profit of 51.3 billion CNY (up 90% year-on-year) [4] - The growth in value-added services revenue reached 79 billion CNY (up 14% year-on-year), driven by strong performances in domestic and overseas gaming [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 216.9 billion CNY, 236.3 billion CNY, and 255.5 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 660.3 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 707.1 billion CNY for 2025 [7] - The net profit for 2024 is 194.1 billion CNY, with projections of 216.9 billion CNY for 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 52.9% in 2024 to 55.1% by 2027 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 23.6 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.3 [7] Business Growth Drivers - The integration of AI technologies has significantly boosted user engagement, with daily active users of Tencent's products increasing over 20 times since the introduction of DeepSeek [5] - The number of evergreen games has increased from 12 in 2023 to 14 in 2024, with a strong pipeline of new games [6] - The advertising revenue from video accounts grew by 60% year-on-year in Q4 2024, indicating a robust monetization strategy [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Tencent achieved revenue of 172.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%. Operating profit reached 51.5 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, while Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [2][4] Revenue Performance - The strong performance in the gaming sector, particularly from evergreen games and new game launches, drove Q4 revenue growth in both domestic and overseas markets. Domestic game revenue increased by 23% to 33.2 billion yuan, while overseas game revenue rose by 15% to 16 billion yuan [8] - The advertising segment continued to show robust growth, with marketing services revenue increasing by 17% to 35 billion yuan, supported by strong demand from advertisers [8] Profitability - Tencent's profit growth has consistently outpaced revenue growth for 10 consecutive quarters, with a Q4 gross margin of 52.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for value-added services, marketing services, and financial technology & enterprise services also saw improvements [8] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditure in Q4 surged by 386.15% year-on-year to 36.578 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to AI projects. The company plans to repurchase over 80 billion Hong Kong dollars and increase the annual dividend by 32% to 4.50 Hong Kong dollars per share [8]