交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 502.00 | 港元 583.00 | +16.1% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | 常青游戏贡献总收入 20%，MOBA/射击优势显著，海外增长领先行业 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7. ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 502.00 | 港元 583.00 | +16.1% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | 常青游戏贡献总收入 20%，MOBA/射击优势显著，海外增长领先行业 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7. ...

AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q4 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预期游戏增速持续提升，预计 24~26 年 IFRS 归母净利润为 1941/2261/2501 亿 元（24~26 年原值为 1951/2245/2498 亿元，因根据财报上调广告等收入，我们调整 盈利预测），24~26 年 non-IFRS 归母净利润为 2227/2576/2856 亿元。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目标价 559.92 港币（517.04 人民币 HKD/RMB=0.92），维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险 公司主要财务信息 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@o ...

腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 660,257 | 737,770 | 807,370 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.21% | 9.82% | 8.41% | 11.74% | 9.43% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 100,017 | 152,784 | 200,097 | 229,061 | 257,041 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.32% | 52.76% | 30.97% | 14.47% | 12.22% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 188,243 | 115,216 | 194,073 | 226,083 | 250,091 | | 同比增长 (%) | -16.27% | -38.79% | 68.44% | 16.49% | 10.62% | | 每股收益（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Tencent Holdings, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's performance in the near future [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 172.4 billion RMB, marking an 11% year-on-year increase and a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase. The total revenue for the year was 660.3 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year [3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 51.3 billion RMB, a significant 90% increase year-on-year, while the annual net profit reached 194.1 billion RMB, up 68% [3]. - Tencent's capital expenditure for 2024 was 76.8 billion RMB, a 221% increase year-on-year, primarily focused on AI investments and services [3]. - The launch of Tencent's self-developed deep learning model, "混元 T1," showcases its advancements in AI technology, achieving a score of 87.2 in authoritative tests [4]. - The integration of the "腾讯元宝" AI assistant into WeChat is expected to enhance user engagement and potentially reshape the industry landscape [5]. - Tencent's investment in the intelligent robotics company "智元机器人" marks its first foray into the embodied intelligence sector, with a 2% stake in the company [6]. Financial Performance - Q4 2024 revenue: 172.4 billion RMB, up 11% YoY, 3% QoQ [3] - Annual revenue: 660.3 billion RMB, up 8% YoY [3] - Q4 2024 net profit: 51.3 billion RMB, up 90% YoY [3] - Annual net profit: 194.1 billion RMB, up 68% YoY [3] - 2024 capital expenditure: 76.8 billion RMB, up 221% YoY [3] AI Developments - Launch of "混元 T1" deep learning model with industry-leading capabilities [4] - Integration of AI assistant "腾讯元宝" into WeChat, enhancing user interaction [5] - Significant investment in AI research and development, totaling 70.69 billion RMB in 2024 [4]. Strategic Investments - Tencent's first investment in intelligent robotics through "智元机器人," holding a 2% stake [6].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 2024Q4 业绩点评：AI 赋能，营收利润皆超 预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 609015 | 660257 | 716550 | 782730 | 854621 | | 同比(%) | (10.66) | 8.41 | 8.53 | 9.24 | 9.18 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 115216 | 194073 | 210262 | 234571 | 266681 | | 同比(%) | (38.79) | 68.44 | 8.34 | 11.56 | 13.69 | | Non-IFRS 净利润 | 157,688.05 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 2024Q4 业绩点评：AI 赋能，营收利润皆超 预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 609015 | 660257 | 716550 | 782730 | 854621 | | 同比(%) | (10.66) | 8.41 | 8.53 | 9.24 | 9.18 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 115216 | 194073 | 210262 | 234571 | 266681 | | 同比(%) | (38.79) | 68.44 | 8.34 | 11.56 | 13.69 | | Non-IFRS 净利润 | 157,688.05 | 222,703.00 | 244,100.00 | 269,300.00 | 298,384.40 | | 同比(%) | 36.35 | 41.23 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5][7] Core Views - Tencent's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 174.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and adjusted net profit of 55.3 billion RMB, up 30% year-on-year [7] - The company is accelerating its AI ecosystem development, with significant contributions from gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors [7] - The target price is set at 684 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 34% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 719.9 billion RMB - 2026E: 779.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 833.3 billion RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 251.3 billion RMB - 2026E: 282.2 billion RMB - 2027E: 311.3 billion RMB - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates: - 2023: 16.68 RMB - 2024: 24.03 RMB - 2025E: 27.32 RMB - 2026E: 30.69 RMB - 2027E: 33.85 RMB - Return on equity (ROE) projections: - 2023: 19.5% - 2024: 22.4% - 2025E: 20.9% - 2026E: 19.73% - 2027E: 18.49% [4][10] Company Commentary - The gaming segment showed strong performance with domestic and overseas revenues growing by 23% and 15% respectively in Q4 2024, with new titles contributing significantly [7] - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 grew by 17%, driven by AI enhancements, with video account advertising increasing over 60% [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 3% in Q4 2024, with notable growth in enterprise WeChat and AI cloud services [7] - Capital expenditures for 2024 were 76.8 billion RMB, representing 12% of revenue, with plans for lower double-digit capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue in 2025 [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月21日 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 优于大市 收入侧增长提速，积极进行 AI+应用布局 广告、游戏业务表现良好，收入同比增长 11%，经调整利润同比增长 30%。 24Q4，腾讯实现营收 1724 亿元，同比增长 11.1%。主要增长由广告和游 戏业务贡献，金融科技业务受到宏观影响较为疲软。经调整经营利润 24Q4 为 595 亿元，同比增长 20%。Non-IFRS 归母净利润 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%；Non-IFRS 归母净利率 32.1%，同比提升 5pct。 AI 时代研发费用积极投入。24Q4 公司管理研发费用 24Q4 同比增长 16%至 314 亿元，主要系研发开支（包括与 AI 项目相关的僱员成本及折旧费用） 增加。我们预计研发费用增加趋势在 25 年延续。Capex 方面，24Q4 增 长迅猛，为 366 亿元，同比+386%；25 年全年来看，预计占比收入低双 位数，若以占比 12-15%测算为 868-1086 元左右。公司 Capex 主要用于： ①支持广告技术的 GPU 以及部分游戏业务；②大模型训练；③云业务转 租；④未来还会在推理方面 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：借 AI 东风，腾讯能否 重回 700？ 业绩超预期，宣布派发股息及回购：公司 4Q24 收入人民币 1,725 亿 元，同比增长 11%，高于市场预期 2.3%；毛利率 52.6%，同比提升 3 个 百分点，各分部毛利率同比均有改善；调整后净利润为 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%，高于市场预期；调整后净利率 32.1%，4Q23 为 27.5%， 3Q24 为 35.8%。公司宣布派发每股股息 4.5 港元，在 2025 年至少回购 800 亿港元股份，两者约合 2.4%的股东回报。 本土游戏表现亮眼，预计 1Q25 保持强劲势头：4Q24 本土游戏收入同 比增长 23%至 332 亿元，增长强劲，好于我们预期，主要得益于去年 低基数以及旗舰游戏的健康表现。根据 Sensor Tower 数据监测，《王者 荣耀》在今年一季度目前表现依然亮眼，1 月和 2 月成为该游戏自 2021 年以来收入最高的两个月。国际游戏收入同比增长 15%至 160 亿元， 主要受《PUBG MOBILE》《荒野乱斗》等游戏推动。低基数效应在上半 年仍将持续，且递延收 ...