Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. Core operating profit reached 6.23 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1]. - The company has initiated a franchise business, successfully launching 13 franchise restaurants in 2024, contributing 16.71 million yuan in revenue. Over 70% of franchise applications are from third-tier cities and below [4]. - The company has also launched the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the incubation and development of new restaurant brands, resulting in 11 new brands with a total of 74 stores, generating 480 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's restaurant system sales increased by 3% year-on-year, with same-store sales growing by 3.6% [2]. - The average table turnover rate for self-operated restaurants was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year [2]. - The overall average customer spending was 97.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, attributed to changes in the consumption structure [2]. Cost and Efficiency - The cost of raw materials accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year due to lower procurement prices. Employee costs increased to 33.0%, up 1.5 percentage points, reflecting higher wages and benefits [3]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.507 HKD per share, alongside an interim dividend of 0.391 HKD, resulting in an overall dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024 [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue optimizing store operating efficiency and expanding its franchise business, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.3 billion, 5.86 billion, and 6.53 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao reported a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.708 billion yuan for 2024, marking year-on-year growth of 3.14% and 4.65% respectively [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The table turnover rate increased from 3.8 times per day in 2023 to 4 times per day in 2024, reaching the company's internal threshold for expansion [1] - In 2024, Haidilao opened 62 new restaurants, re-opened 2 previously closed locations, and closed or relocated 70 restaurants [2] - The average table turnover rate for new restaurants in 2024 was 4.4 times per day, outperforming older locations [3] Group 2: Franchise Strategy - Haidilao launched its franchise model in 2024, with a total of 1,368 restaurants, including 13 franchise locations, of which only 3 were newly opened franchises [2] - The company established a three-round screening mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and operational capability, resulting in a low approval rate for applicants [2] - The franchise model is seen as a supplement to existing operations rather than a replacement, with 70% of franchise applications coming from third-tier cities and below [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The average customer spending decreased to 97.5 yuan in 2024, a drop of 1.6 yuan year-on-year, returning to levels seen eight years ago [3] - Despite the decline in average spending, there was a slight increase in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 yuan in the latter half [3] - Haidilao's takeaway business saw a revenue increase of 20.4%, rising from 1.0415 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.254 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the introduction of a "single meal" premium takeaway service [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao and raises the target price to HK$ 20.20, based on an 18x FY25E P/E, up from 16x due to faster expansion and sector re-rating [1][13]. Core Insights - FY24 results showed a small beat primarily driven by robust gross profit margin expansion, with sales increasing by 3% YoY to RMB 42.8 billion, although this was below estimates due to greater-than-expected store closures [1][13]. - The company is expected to experience a mild turnaround in FY25E, supported by potential store expansion acceleration and margin improvements, despite stable same-store sales growth (SSSG) [1][10]. - The "Red Guava" project aims to encourage current store managers to open new restaurants under different brands, with 74 stores already established under 11 new brands as of FY24 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 42,755 million in FY24 to RMB 44,607 million in FY25, reflecting a 4.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,700 million in FY24 to RMB 5,213 million in FY25, indicating a 10.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to remain stable at 62.1% for FY25, supported by improved supply chain capabilities and better input costs [11][16]. Store Expansion and Management - Haidilao opened 59 self-owned stores and 3 franchise stores in FY24, resulting in a net decrease of 19 stores due to 70 closures [10]. - For FY25E, the company expects a net increase of approximately 40 stores, equivalent to about 3% YoY growth, with management estimating around 60-70 new openings [10]. - The adoption of multi-store management and digitalization is expected to enhance operational efficiency and staff productivity [10][11]. Earnings Revision - The FY25E net profit forecast has been cut by 10% to RMB 5,192 million, reflecting greater-than-expected store closures and a more conservative outlook on SSSG [11][13]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in gross profit margin, which is expected to positively impact overall profitability [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) with a current price of HKD 17.62 [1] Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of HKD 427.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of HKD 47.1 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was HKD 212.6 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 26.7 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao's restaurant operations, takeaway business, seasoning products, and other sales generated revenues of HKD 403.98 billion, HKD 12.54 billion, HKD 5.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 20.4%, -27.1%, and 39.6% [5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times per day in 2023 [6] - The overall customer unit price for 2024 was HKD 97.5, slightly down from HKD 99.1 in 2023, but the second half of 2024 saw a recovery in unit price [6] Cost Structure - In the second half of 2024, the net profit margin improved to 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs, which accounted for 36.8% of revenue [6] - For the full year 2024, raw material costs accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 sub-brands, aiming to diversify its offerings and enhance customer engagement [8] - The company plans to increase the number of main brand stores (including franchises) in 2025, focusing on third-tier cities and below [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Haidilao are adjusted to HKD 53.55 billion and HKD 59.71 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 65.15 billion [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 17x, indicating a mature single-store model and strong brand momentum [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 19.1% to 2.67 billion yuan [4][5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, compared to 3.8 times in 2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] - The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 new restaurant brands, contributing to revenue diversification and growth [8] Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: restaurant operations generated 40.398 billion yuan, delivery services 1.254 billion yuan, seasoning products and other sales 0.575 billion yuan, and other restaurant operations 0.483 billion yuan [5] - The company experienced a net decrease of 6 stores in 2024, ending the year with 1,368 locations [5] Cost Structure and Profitability - In the second half of 2024, the cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an improved net profit margin of 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The overall net profit margin for 2024 was 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in the number of new stores in 2025, focusing on expansion in lower-tier cities [9] - The successful operation of the "Pomegranate Plan" and the expansion of the "Flame Grilled Meat Shop" brand are expected to drive further revenue growth [9] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.355 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 13.7% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x based on the current stock price [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. The core operating profit for 2024 was 6.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year, with a core operating profit margin of 14.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points [4][7]. - The company anticipates a year-end dividend of 2.53 billion yuan, with an overall dividend payout ratio of approximately 95%, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 5% [4][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The restaurant operating revenue was 40.40 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with revenue contributions from first, second, third-tier cities, and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan at 17.7%, 38.7%, 40.0%, and 3.6% respectively. Other restaurant revenue grew by 39.6% to 480 million yuan, driven by the "Pomegranate Plan" and various innovative dining brands [5]. - The takeaway business generated 1.25 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year, attributed to the launch of a single-person meal service in the second half of 2023. Sales from condiments and ingredients decreased by 27.1% to 580 million yuan [5]. Brand Development and Performance - As of the end of 2024, the company operated a total of 1,368 restaurants, including 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, with 62 new openings and 70 closures or relocations. The introduction of a franchise model has seen over 70% of applications coming from third-tier cities and below [6]. - The average customer spending was 97.5 yuan, a decrease of approximately 1.6% year-on-year, while the average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times per day [6]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The cost of raw materials and consumables decreased by 4.3% to 16.21 billion yuan, accounting for 37.9% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 8.2% to 14.11 billion yuan, making up 33.0% of revenue [7]. - The company expects continued improvements in single-store efficiency and accelerated expansion through its franchise strategy and brand incubation, projecting net profits of 5.15 billion yuan, 5.59 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 8.6%, and 8.5% [7][10]. Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated between 19.4 and 23.0 Hong Kong dollars per share, based on a 20-23 times PE ratio and a 10-12 times EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry, particularly hot pot chain Haidilao, is facing significant challenges, with a decline in stock price from a peak of 76.82 HKD to around 17 HKD, indicating a loss of investor confidence and growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance - Haidilao's 2024 revenue and net profit are projected to grow only 3.1% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting limited growth prospects [1] - The average revenue per store is estimated at 30.81 million CNY, with a profit of over 3.47 million CNY per store [4] - The company reported a 20.4% increase in takeaway revenue, reaching 1.254 billion CNY, but this only accounts for 2.9% of total revenue [7] Store Operations - Haidilao opened 62 new restaurants in the past year but closed or relocated 70, resulting in a net decrease of 19 self-operated restaurants, totaling 1,355 by the end of 2024 [5] - The average table turnover rate has stabilized at 4.1 times per day, but maintaining this rate may become increasingly difficult due to service quality issues [5] Market Strategy - The company has initiated a franchise model to tap into lower-tier markets, with 13 franchise stores contributing 16.7 million CNY in revenue, indicating limited immediate growth potential [6] - Haidilao is diversifying its brand portfolio with 11 new restaurant brands, but these have not yet shown significant revenue contributions, with new brands averaging 6.5 million CNY in annual revenue [7][9] Consumer Trends - The consumer base is shifting towards younger demographics, with a growing emphasis on fresh ingredients and high cost-performance ratios, which may challenge Haidilao's traditional business model [12][13] - Analysts predict a revenue growth rate of around 7% for 2025, but the lack of new growth narratives and high stock prices may deter investor interest [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Haidilao's overseas business, Tehai International, which reported a revenue increase of 13.4% year-on-year for 2024, reaching $778 million [1] - Tehai International's restaurant operating revenue was $747 million, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year growth [1] - The operating profit margin for Tehai International in 2024 was 6.8%, slightly up from 6.3% in 2023 [1] Group 2 - Tehai International adopted a cautious store expansion strategy, opening 10 new locations in 2024 while closing 3 stores in Southeast Asia [1] - As of December 31, 2024, Tehai International operated 122 Haidilao restaurants across 14 countries, with 73 in Southeast Asia, 19 in East Asia, 20 in North America, and 10 in other regions [1] - The operating profit margin for Haidilao restaurants improved to 10.1% in 2024, up from 9.0% the previous year [1] Group 3 - Tehai International is actively exploring different business formats, launching the "Pomegranate Plan" in 2024 to position itself as a leading global integrated dining group [2] - The company is expanding beyond its existing second brands, such as HAO Noodle and Halal Hotpot, to include various formats like barbecue, flavorful hotpot, and different types of fast food [2]

餐饮消费持续向好，财报显示海底捞去年客流超4亿 编辑：侯隽 数据显示，2024年海底捞实现营业收入427.55亿元，同比上升3.1%；净利润47.00亿元，同比增长 4.6%。核心经营利润为62.30亿元，同比上升18.7%。收入、净利润实现连续两年增长。门店扩张上，海 底捞保持相对稳健的拓张速度，同时继续调整优化门店。截至2024年年底，海底捞品牌共经营1368家餐 厅，其中自营餐厅中国大陆地区1332家，港澳台地区共23家，加盟餐厅共13家。 海底捞在财报中表示，2024年，中国经济运行总体稳中有进。在餐饮板块，各地政府出台多项刺激 消费的政策，积极促进餐饮消费。餐饮业同行亦积极创新、丰富餐饮业态，茶饮、炒菜等类别蓬勃发 展、增长迅速，为消费者提供更丰富多元的选择，推动餐饮业的整体复苏和高质量发展。 国家统计局数据显示，2024年全国餐饮收入增速分别高于国内生产总值增速、社会消费品零售总额 增速0.3个、1.8个百分点，全国餐饮收入55718亿元，增长5.3%；限额以上单位餐饮收入15298亿元，增 长3%。 受政策推动与行业复苏影响，海底捞2024年全年共接待顾客4.15亿人次，日均客流量超110万人 ...

总收入427亿，海底捞是怎么挣来的？ 3月25日晚间，海底捞发布了2024年业绩报告：总营业收入427.55亿元，净利润47.08亿元，翻台率4.1次/天，接待顾客4.15亿人次。 业绩虽然有不少亮点，但也有隐忧：增速放缓、副业押宝失败，员工成本创新高，加盟模式试水考验，以及前段时间的外滩门店"小便门"事件造成千 万元赔偿。这一赔偿金额甚至是中国餐饮业有史以来最高的赔偿纪录。 主业收入微增3.1%，副业走"题海战术" 根据年报，海底捞去年实现总营业收入427.55亿元，同比增长3.1%；净利润47.08亿元，同比增长4.6%；核心经营利润为66.24亿元，同比增长18.7%。 2024年，海底捞虽然营收净利保持增长，但增速明显下滑。对比2023年的数据来看：收入414.53亿元，同比增长33.6%，净利润44.95亿元，同比增长 174.6%。2023年海底捞甚至创下了成立三十年以来的最好成绩。 由于主业火锅业务增长乏力，并且市场竞争激烈，海底捞也和其他餐饮企业一样，试图开创第二增长曲线。在这方面，海底捞走得是"题海战术"。 2024年，海底捞启动"红石榴计划"，孵化和发展了11个子品牌，包括"焰请烤肉铺子" ...