Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving a customer urinating in a hot pot at Haidilao has led the company to issue an apology and compensation, highlighting operational issues within the company [1][6]. Compensation and Apology - On March 12, 2025, Haidilao apologized and announced full refunds for 4,109 customers who dined at the Shanghai Bund location between February 24 and March 8, along with additional cash compensation amounting to ten times the order value [1][2]. - The total compensation is reported to exceed 10 million yuan [2]. Incident Details - The "urination incident" originated from a video posted online showing a man urinating into a Haidilao hot pot [3]. - On February 24, two men urinated into the hot pot at the Shanghai Bund store, and the management had no prior contingency plans for such incidents, leading to a delayed response [4]. - Haidilao reported that it took time to identify the incident's location and involved local police for assistance, confirming the incident occurred at their Shanghai Bund store [5]. Operational Issues - The incident has exposed operational weaknesses within Haidilao, particularly in crisis management and public relations [6]. - The company's legal department's response on March 8 shifted the focus from the perpetrators to those spreading the video, which resulted in negative public backlash [7][8]. - There appears to be a lack of unified strategy within the company regarding external communication [9]. Management and Future Considerations - Haidilao acknowledged the challenge of quickly identifying the incident's location due to the absence of surveillance in private dining rooms [10]. - Suggestions for improvement include marking private rooms or enhancing decor to aid in management and customer safety [11]. - Despite the incident, the company is seen as a victim and has potential for growth in the competitive restaurant market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has taken responsibility for a recent incident at its Shanghai Bund store, where two customers urinated in a hot pot, leading to significant public outrage and a commitment to refund affected customers and pursue legal action against the perpetrators [1][3][4]. Refund and Compensation - The company will fully refund the meal costs for 4,109 customers who dined at the Shanghai Bund store between February 24 and March 8, and will provide an additional cash compensation of ten times the order amount [2][3][4]. - Refunds for payments made via WeChat, Alipay, and UnionPay will be processed by March 12, with expected completion within seven working days [4]. Incident Details - The incident occurred on February 24, 2025, when two intoxicated minors urinated in the hot pot during their meal, and the video was later shared online [2][3]. - The company acknowledged a lack of preparedness for such incidents, which contributed to the failure to maintain a safe dining environment [2][3]. Legal Actions - The company has filed a civil lawsuit against the two individuals involved in the incident, seeking to hold them accountable for their actions [1][3]. Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 14.62% in February 2025, and further gains in March [5][6]. - The company reported record high revenues and core operating profits for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 21.491 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company has responded to a viral incident involving customers misbehaving in one of its restaurants, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining a safe and hygienic dining environment while also addressing the legal implications for those involved [2][3]. Group 1: Incident Response - The company strongly condemns the behavior of individuals who filmed themselves urinating in a hot pot, asserting its right to pursue legal action against malicious spreaders of the video [2]. - The company has replaced all cooking and dining utensils in the affected restaurant and conducted thorough cleaning and disinfection [2]. - The local police have confirmed that the incident occurred on February 24, 2025, involving two intoxicated minors who were subsequently detained [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's stock price has increased over 20% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a positive market trend [3]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 21.491 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high [3]. - The company served over 209.9 million customers across its restaurants, with an overall table turnover rate of 4.2 times per day [3]. - The company's profit for the same period was RMB 2.033 billion, a decrease of 10.0% compared to the previous year, primarily due to changes in foreign exchange gains and the cancellation of a tax incentive [3]. - The core operating profit, measured under non-IFRS standards, was RMB 2.799 billion, reflecting a 13.0% increase year-on-year [3]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company operated 1,343 restaurants, with 1,320 located in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [3]. - The company plans to significantly increase the number of new openings in the second half of 2024, leveraging improved operational management capabilities [3].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses **Haidilao**, a prominent player in the **hot pot restaurant industry** in China, and the broader **Chinese dining industry**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Environment**: The overall economic environment for the dining industry remains uncertain, yet the hot pot segment continues to show stable growth, maintaining its position as the largest subcategory within Chinese dining [6][7][8]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in the restaurant sector has intensified, with a higher rate of store closures compared to openings from 2022 to 2024. This indicates a challenging environment for many players, but established brands like Haidilao are leveraging their supply chain advantages to maintain stability [7][8][9]. 3. **Consumer Trends**: There is a notable increase in the consumption of higher-priced dining options, contradicting the trend of consumption downgrade observed in other sectors. This suggests that consumers are willing to pay a premium for quality dining experiences [10][11]. 4. **Company Performance**: Haidilao has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, with a reported revenue growth rate of 28% and a profit growth rate of 42%. The company remains a leader in the industry despite facing challenges during the pandemic [12][21]. 5. **Strategic Adjustments**: The company is shifting towards a more cautious expansion strategy, focusing on operational efficiency and management refinement. This includes closing underperforming stores and enhancing the management system to ensure better decision-making regarding new openings [13][15][18]. 6. **Future Growth Plans**: Haidilao plans to resume store expansion once operational metrics, such as table turnover rates, reach satisfactory levels. The company is also exploring new brand development opportunities to diversify its offerings [18][20]. 7. **Investment Outlook**: Despite a challenging economic backdrop, Haidilao's core business remains robust, with strong cash flow and a potential dividend payout ratio of 100% in 2024. The company's valuation is expected to have significant upside potential as it resumes expansion and new brand initiatives [21][22]. Other Important Insights - The management team has undergone changes, with a new CEO taking over, which may influence the company's strategic direction and operational focus [15][16]. - The company is implementing a new performance evaluation system that emphasizes operational efficiency and profitability, which could enhance overall performance [14][15]. - The report suggests that Haidilao's valuation could rebound significantly if the company successfully navigates the current challenges and capitalizes on growth opportunities in the future [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Haidilao has successfully navigated through operational challenges and has returned to profitability, achieving record revenue and profit in 2023, thus reaffirming its position as a leader in the Chinese dining sector [5][7][9] - The report discusses the ongoing growth potential of Haidilao's hot pot business and the strategic introduction of new brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to enhance growth avenues [5][8][9] Summary by Sections 01 Hot Pot Market: The Largest Segment in Chinese Cuisine - The hot pot market is projected to exceed 590 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2028 [6][14] - Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot dominate the market, accounting for over 66% of the segment's revenue in 2023 [6][14] 02 Haidilao: Organizational Evolution and Resurgence - From 2015 to 2023, Haidilao's revenue grew at a CAGR of 28%, and net profit grew at a CAGR of 42%, with 2023 revenue reaching 41.5 billion yuan and net profit at 4.5 billion yuan [7][9] - The company underwent significant organizational restructuring through the "Woodpecker Plan" and "Hard Bone Plan," which helped it recover from previous operational setbacks [7][9] 03 Growth Outlook: Improvement in Same-store Sales and Expansion of New Brands - The report anticipates improvements in same-store sales, with projected table turnover rates increasing from 4.1 to 4.3 times per day from 2024 to 2026 [8] - Haidilao plans to expand its store count to between 1,902 and 1,998 locations over the next five years, with an expected annual net increase of about 65 stores [8] - The new brand "Yanjing Barbecue" is expected to accelerate its development, with projections of adding 50 to 80 new locations annually from 2025 to 2027 [8] 04 Investment Recommendations: A Turning Point in Operations and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 45.1 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 0.4%, 11.8%, and 10.2% respectively [9] - The target price for Haidilao is set at a PE ratio of 16-18x for 2025, corresponding to a market value of 87.8 to 98.7 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 12.4% to 26.4% from the latest closing price [9]

Core Insights - The company, Haidilao, increased the number of operating stores during the Chinese New Year period in 2025 due to heightened consumer dining demand [1] - Over the seven days from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, Haidilao served over 10 million customers nationwide [1] - The influx of tourists from heritage tours, inbound travel, and returning home trips contributed to a surge in customer traffic at various Haidilao locations [1] - Local stores in lower-tier markets experienced significant increases in holiday customer traffic due to returning visitors [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that Haidilao has successfully navigated through operational challenges and has returned to profitability, achieving record revenue and profit in 2023, reaffirming its position as a leader in the Chinese dining sector [5][7][9] - The report discusses the ongoing growth potential of Haidilao's hot pot business and the strategic introduction of new brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to enhance revenue streams [5][8][9] Summary by Sections 01 Hot Pot Market: The Largest Segment in Chinese Cuisine - The hot pot market is projected to exceed 590 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2028 [6][14] - Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot dominate the market, accounting for over 66% of the segment's revenue in 2023 [6][14] - The competitive landscape has seen a significant reshuffle, with a stabilization in store openings and closures expected in 2024 [15][17] 02 Haidilao: Organizational Evolution and Resurgence - From 2015 to 2023, Haidilao's revenue grew at a CAGR of 28%, with net profit growing at 42%, reaching 41.5 billion yuan in 2023 [7][36] - The company has implemented significant organizational changes through the "Woodpecker Plan" and "Hard Bone Plan" to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market conditions [40][45] 03 Growth Outlook: Improvement in Same-Store Sales and Expansion of New Brands - Same-store sales are expected to improve, with projected table turnover rates increasing from 4.0 times per day to 4.3 times by 2026 [8] - The company plans to expand its hot pot outlets to a target of 1,902 to 1,998 stores over the next five years, with an annual net increase of approximately 65 stores [8] - The new brand "Yanjing Barbecue" is set to accelerate its development, with expectations of opening 50 to 80 new locations annually from 2025 to 2027 [8] 04 Investment Recommendations: A Turning Point for Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 45.1 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [9] - The target price for Haidilao is set at a PE ratio of 16-18x for 2025, translating to a market value of 878 to 987 billion yuan, representing a potential upside of 12.4% to 26.4% from the latest closing price [9]

Strategic Partnership - Yili Group and Haidilao Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement on January 6 at the Yili Shanghai Innovation Center [1] - The partnership aims to establish a multi-level and comprehensive communication mechanism [1] - Both companies will leverage their respective resource advantages to deepen cooperation in areas such as brand promotion, market development, business integration, brand co-building, organizational development, and R&D innovation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao (06862 HK) [3] Core Views - Haidilao's main brand is expected to see improvements in both same-store operations and store expansion in 2025, while its barbecue brand is set to accelerate development [3] - The company has demonstrated strong operational adjustment capabilities in a weak market environment, with same-store sales expected to return to growth in 2025 [3][32] - The "Pomegranate Plan" is expected to drive the rapid expansion of new brands, particularly the barbecue brand, with synergies in supply chain and labor ensuring profitability [3][32] Business Review - Haidilao, founded in 1994, is a leading player in the hotpot and Chinese dining sectors, with a revenue CAGR of 28 0% and a net profit CAGR of 42 0% from 2015 to 2023 [7] - In 2021, the company faced operational challenges due to rapid expansion and the pandemic, leading to a net loss of RMB 4 16 billion, including over RMB 3 65 billion in impairment losses [8] - The "Woodpecker Plan" implemented in November 2021 helped the company turn around, with a net profit of RMB 1 638 billion in 2022 [9] - In 2023, Haidilao achieved record-high revenue of RMB 41 45 billion and net profit of RMB 4 499 billion, with 1,343 stores by mid-2024 [7][15] Growth Outlook Same-Store Operations - Haidilao's same-store operations are expected to improve, with a stable turnover rate and a recovery in average spending per customer [3][22] - The average spending per customer rebounded to around RMB 100 in December 2024, showing a continuous recovery trend [3] - The overall turnover rate reached 4 2 times in mid-2024, close to the 4 8 times in 2019, despite the number of stores doubling to nearly 1,400 [3] Store Expansion - Haidilao is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit percentage increase in net store openings in 2025, with the franchise model contributing additional growth [3][22] - The company has become more aggressive in store expansion, with plans to open 40-50 new stores in the second half of 2024 [3] New Brand Development - The "Pomegranate Plan" focuses on incubating new brands, with the barbecue brand "Yanqing Barbecue" leading the way [3][23] - Yanqing Barbecue, which opened its first store at the end of 2023, had 12 stores nationwide by November 2024, with plans to expand to 100/200 stores by 2025/2026 [3][23] - The single-store model for Yanqing Barbecue is estimated to generate annual revenue of RMB 10 million, with a net profit margin of 12-14% [3][27] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Haidilao's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 4 62/5 12/5 62 billion, with growth rates of 3%/11%/10%, and a dynamic PE of 19/17/15x [3][32] - Under optimistic assumptions, the net profit for 2025-2026 could reach RMB 5 83/7 16 billion, with growth rates of 3%/26%/23%, and a dynamic PE of 15/12x [32]