海底捞（06862.HK） 优于大市 核心经营利润率维持稳定， "红石榴"计划加码新品牌孵化 2024H1 核心经营利润 27.99 亿元，同增 13.0%。2024H1，公司实现营收 214.91 亿元/+13.8%；归母净利润 22.58 亿元/-9.7%，主要系汇兑损益变动和增值 税优惠政策取消（2024H1 净汇兑亏损 0.26 亿元，2023H1 收益 1.93 亿元； 2024H1 取消，2023H1 税项加计扣除 1.59 亿元而 2024 年取消）。若剔除相 关事项影响，实现核心经营利润 27.99 亿元/+13.0%，符合我们预期。 翻台改善明显、客单适应消费环境走低，下半年开店有望提速。2024H1， 公司整体翻台率 4.2 次，同比+0.9 次，其中一、二、三线及以下、港澳台 城市翻台率分别为 4.0/4.3/4.1/4.2 次，分别同比+0.6/0.8/0.9/0.1 次， 低线城市翻台恢复更为强劲。公司客单价下滑 97.4 元/-5%，系适应消费环 境推出更高性价比产品。截至期末，公司共 1343 家门店/-39 家，系调整存 量门店，新开 11 家仍较谨慎。考虑到新开门店成功率较高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862 HK) [4][6] Core Views - Haidilao's 2024 H1 revenue reached RMB 21 491 billion, up 13 8% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 9 7% YoY to RMB 2 038 billion [4] - The company's overall and same-store turnover rates improved to 4 2 times/day, up 0 9 and 0 8 times/day YoY respectively [4] - Haidilao's "Pomegranate Plan" aims to open 400-500 new stores for its "Yanqing BBQ" brand within 3 years, representing a strategic shift in brand expansion [5] - The multi-store management model has been implemented, with over 100 store managers overseeing more than 200 stores as of July [5] Financial Performance - Haidilao's 2024 H1 gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, while employee costs increased as a percentage of revenue [5] - The company's net profit margin declined 2 5 percentage points YoY to 9 5%, impacted by unfavorable exchange rate movements and the expiration of tax incentives [5] - Revenue breakdown for 2024 H1: Haidilao restaurants (RMB 204 14 billion, +14% YoY), other restaurants (RMB 1 82 billion, +74% YoY), delivery (RMB 5 81 billion, +23% YoY), and condiments/ingredients (RMB 2 99 billion, -19% YoY) [4] Market Data - Haidilao's current market capitalization stands at HKD 68 783 billion, with a total of 5 574 billion shares outstanding [2] - The stock's 1-year performance shows a 37 10% relative decline and a 39 52% absolute decline [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to RMB 46 020 billion, RMB 50 494 billion, and RMB 54 284 billion respectively [7] - Net profit projections for 2024-2026 are revised to RMB 4 469 billion, RMB 5 106 billion, and RMB 5 565 billion [7] - The current PE ratio stands at 14x for 2024, with projected EPS of RMB 0 80, RMB 0 92, and RMB 1 00 for 2024-2026 [6] Operational Highlights - Haidilao operated 1,343 stores as of 2024 H1, with 1,320 in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4] - Same-store sales growth varied by region: tier 1 cities (+11%), tier 2 cities (+14%), tier 3 and below cities (+20%), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (+2%) [4] - Average customer spending decreased by RMB 5 5 to RMB 97 4, with regional variations: tier 1 cities (-RMB 6 2), tier 2 cities (-RMB 5 0), tier 3 and below cities (-RMB 4 7), and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan (-RMB 7 8) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Haidilao (06862 HK) with a target price of HKD 17 32, compared to the current price of HKD 12 34 [1] Core Views - Haidilao demonstrated strong performance resilience in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 21 49 billion (yoy +13 8%) and core operating profit at RMB 2 799 billion (yoy +13%) [1] - The company maintained a high dividend payout, with an EPS of RMB 0 38 and a dividend per share of RMB 0 358 [1] - Haidilao continued to streamline its store network, opening 11 new stores and closing 43 stores, resulting in a total of 1,343 stores by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The company's same-store turnover rate improved significantly, with an overall rate of 4 2 times (up from 3 3 times in the same period last year) [2] - Despite a decline in average customer spending (RMB 97 4, yoy -5 3%), cost optimization efforts led to a reduction in food costs as a percentage of revenue (-1 7pct to 39%) [2] Financial Performance - Haidilao's operating income for 2024E is projected to be RMB 49 798 billion, with a yoy growth of 19 6% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 4 461 billion in 2024E, with a slight yoy decline of 0 9% [3] - The company's EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 0 80, with a P/E ratio of 14x [3] - Haidilao's gross margin for 2024E is estimated at 11 5%, while the net margin is projected at 9 0% [7] Operational Highlights - Haidilao's management focused on optimizing customer satisfaction and implemented a multi-store management model, allowing store managers to oversee multiple locations [2] - The company launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to develop new restaurant brands, resulting in the creation of 5 new brands in H1 2024, covering categories such as BBQ, hotpot, and Chinese fast food [2] - Same-store turnover rates improved across all city tiers, with tier-1 cities increasing by 0 6 times, tier-2 cities by 0 8 times, and tier-3 and below cities by 0 9 times [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Haidilao's EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0 80, RMB 0 92, and RMB 1 01, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x [2] - The target price of HKD 17 32 is based on a 2024E P/E multiple of 20x [2]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 25 20 15 10 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | 02/2024 05/2024 | | | 、浦银国际 | | | 扫码关注浦银国际研究 | | 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 | | 林闻嘉 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2024 年 8 月 28 日 海底捞（6862.HK）：品牌力与翻台率保持 强劲，但五大担忧令我们维持谨慎态度 在餐饮行业面临较大挑战的情况下，海底捞 1H24 翻台率同比大幅提升 至 4.2x，毛利率同比扩张 1.7 ...

港股通 1H24 翻台显著提升，多举措降本提效 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | 华泰研究 中报点评 | | | 2024 年 8 月 28 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 研究员 樊俊豪 SAC No. S0570524050001 fanjunhao@htsc.com SFC No. BDO986 +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 曾珺 SAC No. S0570523120004 zengjun@htsc.com SFC No. BTM417 +(86) 21 2897 2228 研究员 梅昕 SAC No. S0570516080001 meixin@htsc.com SFC No. BQE385 +(86) 21 2897 2080 1H24 营收增速符合预期，宣派中期股息增厚股东回报 海底捞 1H24 海底捞收入 214.91 亿/yoy+13.8%，收入端符合我们前瞻预期 （208-217 亿）；录得归母净利 20.38 亿，归母净利润 9.5%/同比-2.5pct， 主因受汇兑损益变动及 VAT 减免优惠政策取消 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 21,490.9 million, a 13.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023[4] - Core operating profit (non-IFRS measure) for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,798.9 million, up 13.0% year-over-year[4] - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,033.1 million, a 10.0% decrease compared to the same period in 2023[4] - Revenue increased by 13.8% from RMB 18,885.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB 21,490.9 million in H1 2024[6] - Net profit decreased from RMB 2,258.9 million in the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 2,033.1 million in the same period in 2024[25] - Core operating profit (non-IFRS measure) increased from RMB 2,476.4 million in the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 2,798.9 million in the same period in 2024[26] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is RMB 21,490.9 million, a 13.8% increase compared to RMB 18,885.9 million in the same period in 2023[38] - Net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is RMB 2,033.1 million, a decrease of 10.0% compared to RMB 2,258.9 million in the same period in 2023[38] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, is RMB 0.38, compared to RMB 0.42 in the same period in 2023[39] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 21,490.9 million, compared to RMB 18,885.9 million for the same period in 2023, representing a 13.8% increase[46] - Restaurant business revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 20,596.4 million, up 14.2% from RMB 18,040.0 million in the same period in 2023[46] - Delivery business revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 581.2 million, a 23.3% increase from RMB 471.4 million in the same period in 2023[46] - Revenue from Mainland China accounted for RMB 20,760.6 million (96.6% of total revenue) for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up 14.2% from RMB 18,182.3 million in the same period in 2023[48] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 2,038,125 thousand, compared to RMB 2,258,052 thousand in the same period in 2023[54] Restaurant Operations - The average table turnover rate for Haidilao restaurants in the first half of 2024 was 4.2 times per day, up from 3.3 times per day in the same period in 2023[3] - The company served over 209.9 million customers in the first half of 2024[4] - Haidilao opened 11 new restaurants and closed 43 underperforming restaurants in the first half of 2024, resulting in a total of 1,343 restaurants as of June 30, 2024[4] - As of June 30, 2024, Haidilao operated 1,320 restaurants in Mainland China and 23 in the Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan regions[4] - Haidilao restaurant operations accounted for 95.0% of total revenue, with a 13.8% increase from RMB 17,935.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB 20,414.0 million in H1 2024[8] - Average table turnover rate increased from 3.3 times/day in H1 2023 to 4.2 times/day in H1 2024[8] - Same-store sales in first-tier cities increased to RMB 3,502,065 thousand, up 11.3% YoY[12] - Same-store sales in second-tier cities rose to RMB 7,632,547 thousand, up 13.9% YoY[12] - Same-store sales in third-tier and below cities grew to RMB 7,836,184 thousand, up 19.9% YoY[12] - Total same-store sales reached RMB 19,605,740 thousand, up 15.3% YoY[12] - Average daily sales per same-store in first-tier cities increased to RMB 88.6 thousand, up 10.5% YoY[12] Customer Metrics - Customer spending per capita decreased to RMB 97.4 in the first half of 2024, down from RMB 102.9 in the same period in 2023[3] - Customer per capita spending decreased from RMB 102.9 in H1 2023 to RMB 97.4 in H1 2024[8] Expansion and New Formats - The company plans to significantly increase the number of new restaurant openings in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half[4] - The company introduced a franchise model to expand coverage and enter lower-tier markets[5] - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" was launched to incubate and develop new dining brands, with 5 projects in operation in H1 2024[6] - New dining formats such as camping hotpot, campus hotpot, and corporate hotpot were introduced to diversify customer experience[6] - Haidilao's new brands, such as "Yanqing BBQ Shop" and "Xiao Hi Hotpot," are targeting different price segments and consumer groups[6] Costs and Expenses - Employee costs increased by 24.0% to RMB 7,155.7 million, accounting for 33.3% of revenue[16] - Raw material and consumables costs rose by 9.1% to RMB 8,387.2 million, but decreased as a percentage of revenue to 39.0%[15] - Depreciation and amortization decreased by 11.1% to RMB 1,339.1 million, accounting for 6.2% of revenue[20] - Other expenses increased by 28.9% to RMB 881.1 million, mainly due to increased marketing activities[21] - Financial costs decreased by 23.2% to RMB 140.5 million, driven by reduced interest on bank borrowings and lease liabilities[24] - Income tax expenses increased by 54.1% from RMB 554.9 million in the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 855.0 million in the same period in 2024, primarily due to higher tax losses utilized in the previous year[25] - Employee costs for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased to RMB 7,155,747 thousand from RMB 5,769,263 thousand in the same period in 2023[52] - Depreciation and amortization expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 1,339,057 thousand, down from RMB 1,506,422 thousand in the same period in 2023[52] - Financial costs for the six months ended June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 140,504 thousand, a decrease from RMB 183,021 thousand in the same period in 2023[51] - Tax expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 854,957 thousand, compared to RMB 554,930 thousand in the same period in 2023[51] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 6,475.5 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 8,424.9 million as of June 30, 2024, driven by operating activities[29] - Inventory decreased from RMB 1,074.6 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 818.9 million as of June 30, 2024, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 23.9 days to 20.4 days[31] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB 412.0 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 278.6 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days decreasing from 3.2 days to 2.9 days[32] - Trade payables decreased from RMB 1,859.4 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 1,470.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days increasing from 34.3 days to 35.9 days[33] - Bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 294.4 million, with new loans of RMB 50.0 million and repayments of RMB 379.7 million during the six-month period[33] - The company held time deposits with initial maturities exceeding 3 months of RMB 3,256.8 million as of June 30, 2024, with total bank balances and cash amounting to RMB 11,681.7 million[29] - Right-of-use assets recognized under IFRS 16 amounted to RMB 3,207.9 million as of June 30, 2024[30] - Capital-to-debt ratio as of June 30, 2024, is 24.6%[34] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, are RMB 25,372.7 million, compared to RMB 24,677.0 million as of December 31, 2023[40] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, are RMB 15,833.5 million, compared to RMB 13,160.1 million as of December 31, 2023[41] - Non-current assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 6,825.2 million, a decrease of 13.0% from RMB 7,844.5 million as of December 31, 2023[48] - Interest income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 244.8 million, an 83.8% increase from RMB 133.1 million in the same period in 2023[49] - Government subsidies for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 23.0 million, a 31.6% decrease from RMB 33.6 million in the same period in 2023[49] - Net impairment losses reversed for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 30.6 million, compared to a net impairment loss of RMB 11.5 million in the same period in 2023[50] - Exchange loss for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 25.9 million, compared to an exchange gain of RMB 192.5 million in the same period in 2023[50] - Dividends declared for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 4,061,454 thousand, significantly higher than RMB 570,479 thousand in the same period in 2023[52] - The company purchased property, plant, and equipment worth RMB 400,465 thousand during the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from RMB 91,044 thousand in the same period in 2023[55] - Impairment losses on property, plant, and equipment for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 18,618 thousand, compared to RMB 24,048 thousand in the same period in 2023[57] - Impairment losses on right-of-use assets for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 20,094 thousand, compared to RMB 7,267 thousand in the same period in 2023[57] - Trade receivables decreased to RMB 278,608 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 411,995 thousand as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 32.4%[58] - Total trade and other receivables and prepayments decreased to RMB 1,480,897 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 2,028,657 thousand as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 27.0%[58] - Trade payables within 60 days decreased to RMB 1,384,470 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 1,784,199 thousand as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 22.4%[59] - Employee cost payables decreased to RMB 1,689,900 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 1,749,831 thousand as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 3.4%[59] - The company repurchased USD 11.5 million of its 2026 senior notes in April 2024 at a cost of USD 10,795,120, reducing the outstanding principal to USD 285.48 million[60] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had utilized HKD 7,072.9 million of the global offering proceeds, representing 96.9% of the total, with HKD 226.4 million remaining[62] - The company allocated 60.0% of the global offering proceeds (HKD 4,379.5 million) to expansion plans, which have been fully utilized as of June 30, 2024[63] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had utilized HKD 1,545.6 million of the 2021 placement proceeds, representing 66.1% of the total, with HKD 791.4 million remaining[64][65] - The company expects to utilize the remaining HKD 791.4 million from the 2021 placement proceeds by the end of 2026, subject to market conditions and business needs[66] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.391 per share for the first half of 2024[3] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.391 per share (equivalent to RMB 0.358) for shareholders on the register as of September 16, 2024, totaling HKD 2,117,265 thousand (equivalent to RMB 1,938,570 thousand)[53] - The company has declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.391 per share (equivalent to CNY 0.358) for the six months ending June 30, 2024, payable to shareholders registered by September 16, 2024[68] - The interim dividend is expected to be paid on or before October 2, 2024, calculated based on the average benchmark exchange rate of CNY to HKD published by the People's Bank of China five working days prior to August 27, 2024[68] - Share transfer registration will be suspended from September 11, 2024, to September 16, 2024, to determine eligibility for the interim dividend[68] Management and Governance - Yang Lijuan resigned as Executive Director and CEO, and Gou Yiqun was appointed as Executive Director and CEO, effective July 1, 2024[67] - Zhang Junjie has been appointed as an independent non-executive director effective August 27, 2024, with an annual remuneration of CNY 1,200,000[70] - Zhang Junjie has over 13 years of experience in the catering industry and is the founder and CEO of Chagee Holdings Limited[70] - The company's board now includes Chairman and Executive Director Zhang Yong, Vice Chairman and Executive Director Zhou Zhaocheng, and other executive and independent non-executive directors[72] Strategic Plans - The company plans to continue refining the management of its restaurants, exploring diversified business strategies, and strategically seeking acquisitions of high-quality assets[37] Reporting and Compliance - The company will publish its interim results announcement and interim report on the HKEX website and its own website, with the report containing all information required under Appendix D2 of the Listing Rules[69]

高盛：海底捞股价调整反映下行风险，股东回报提供支持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$21.52, indicating a potential upside of 46.6% from the current price of HK$14.68 [5][7]. Core Views - The management change at Haidilao, with Yang Lijuan resigning as CEO and Gou Yiqun taking over, is viewed as neutral for the company's operations, which continue to improve [2][3]. - Haidilao's financial performance has exceeded expectations, with significant improvements in table turnover rates and successful completion of operational programs [3]. - The company is confident in achieving its FY24E target of single-digit percentage growth in new store openings, despite a slow expansion pace in the near term [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,018 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,996.6 million in FY24E, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.89 for FY24E [4][8]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.9x in FY23A to 15.3x in FY24E, indicating an attractive valuation for long-term investors [4][9]. Operational Insights - Haidilao has successfully reopened 50 to 100 previously closed stores, contributing to a remarkable table turnover rate of approximately 4.3 times in the first five months of 2024 [3]. - The introduction of new products and enhanced customer engagement strategies have positively impacted the brand's market presence and customer loyalty [3]. - The potential for new store openings is bolstered by the upcoming launch of franchising stores and the success of campus stores [3]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization stands at HK$81,826.3 million, with significant shareholding by Mr. Zhang Yong (60.4%) and Mr. Shi Sean (9.4%) [4]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of -20.6% over the past month, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) due to high current valuation despite strong recovery in table turnover rates [1]. Core Views - Haidilao has shown a strong recovery in table turnover rates, outperforming other players in the restaurant sector, attributed to effective marketing strategies and store management [1]. - The company is expected to face short-term challenges with a slowdown in table turnover growth in 2Q24 and a decline in profit margins in 1H24 due to high base effects [1]. - The current valuation is considered high, with 11x 2024E EV/EBITDA and 20x 2024E P/E, leading to potential downside risks for the stock price [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 41,453 million RMB in 2023 to 46,861 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [2][4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,018 million RMB in 2024, representing an 11.5% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to slightly expand in 2024, despite facing pressure in 1H24 due to increased labor costs [1][4]. Store Expansion Plans - Haidilao plans to open between 60 to 100 new stores in 2024, primarily in second-tier cities, with a focus on the second half of the year [1]. - The company has opened only 4 new stores year-to-date, indicating a cautious approach to expansion [1]. Customer Metrics - The average customer spending is expected to rise to approximately 102 RMB in 2024, up from 99 RMB in 2023 [1]. - The overall table turnover rate is anticipated to exceed 30% year-on-year growth in 1Q24, with expectations of maintaining a high range of 3-4 times in 2Q24 [1].

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月16日 海底捞（06862.HK） 买入 经营呈现逆势高景气度，期待运营端的积极变化  公司研究·公司快评  社会服务·酒店餐饮  投资评级：买入（维持评级） 证券分析师： 曾光 0755-82150809 zengguang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980511040003 证券分析师： 钟潇 0755-82132098 zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980513100003 证券分析师： 张鲁 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120002 事项：海底捞官方数据显示，5月1日至5月4日，海底捞累计接待约750万人次，同比去年增长 约15%，下沉市场门店增长更加显著。 国信社服观点： 1）核心逻辑：经营呈现逆趋势高景气度，高业绩可见度理应享受板块的估值溢价。受外部环境影响，2023H2 餐饮行业普遍面临增长压力，据国信社服跟踪，火锅赛道2023H2同店普遍恢复至2022年同期80%，而海 底捞翻台率同比恢复程度却逆势逐月走高（23年7-12月同比恢复率为1 ...