海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 市占率提升逻辑稳健，利润率持续优化 途虎-W(9690) 商业服务与商业用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 —— 途虎 2024H1 业绩前瞻 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.06 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-----------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122070054 | 本报告导读： 途虎在规模、供应链及门店管控等方面竞争优势显著，看好公司长期市占率提升空 间。 投资要点： [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu, with a target price of 17.06 HKD [2] Core Views - Tuhu's revenue is primarily driven by individual consumers, with 80% of its income coming from this segment [1] - The company's gross margin improvement is attributed to scale effects, higher-margin maintenance services, and increased sales of proprietary products [1] - Tuhu's single-store model shows that franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with steady-state operations achieved after 3 years [1] - The report forecasts Tuhu's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 14.7/16.1/17.7 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 750/1190/1600 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, 50% of Tuhu's revenue came from tires and chassis components, while 44% came from maintenance services [1] - The gross profit contribution from tires and chassis components was 37%, while maintenance services contributed 40% [1] - Tuhu's revenue from individual consumers reached 11.265 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 82.8% of total revenue [7] Gross Margin Analysis - Tuhu's gross margin increased from 7.4% in 2019 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by direct procurement and scale effects [11] - The maintenance business, with a gross margin of 32.4% in 2023, contributed 60% of the total gross profit [9] - Tuhu's proprietary and exclusive brands accounted for 68.3% of revenue in 2023, up from 22.2% in 2019 [16] Single-Store Model - Tuhu's stores typically reach steady-state operations after 3 years, with average store revenue increasing from 324,000 RMB in the first year to 775,000 RMB after 3 years [20] - The gross margin of stores increases from 21.6% in the first year to 25.7% after 3 years [20] - Franchisees typically break even in 2-3 years, with a store lifecycle of over 8 years [23] Competitive Landscape - Tuhu operates over 6,000 stores as of May 2024, significantly more than competitors like Tmall Auto Care and JD Auto Care [6] - Tuhu's supply chain includes 34 regional distribution centers and 511 front-end distribution centers, ensuring efficient logistics [56] - The company's user base reached 115 million registered users by the end of 2023, with a 60% repurchase rate [6] Industry Comparison - The US auto aftermarket leaders, AutoZone and O'Reilly, achieved 10-year revenue CAGRs of 6.7% and 9.0%, respectively, from 2013 to 2023 [81] - AutoZone and O'Reilly's store counts grew at CAGRs of 3.2% and 4.0%, respectively, during the same period [80] - Tuhu's growth trajectory is compared to these US leaders, with a focus on the potential for similar scale and profitability in China [78] Market Potential - China's average vehicle age is 6.2 years in 2022, expected to reach 8.0 years by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in the aftermarket [74] - The report highlights that 55% of vehicles in China are under 6 years old, and 66% have annual mileage below 10,000 km, suggesting untapped demand for aftermarket services [70]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W(09690.HK) 24H1 业绩前瞻:行业需求承压,不改份额及 利润率提升趋势 2024 年 07 月 22 日 买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11563 | 13606 | 14637 | 16864 | 19226 | | 同比(%) | (1.42) | 17.67 | 7.58 | 15.21 | 14.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2,136.17) | 6,702.94 | 531.68 | 1,042.82 | 1,601.04 | | 同比(%) | - | - | (92.07) | 96.14 | 53.53 | | Non-IFRS ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 18.32 [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive aftermarket IAM sector, with a strong focus on market expansion and business structure optimization, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and profit [4][29]. - The automotive aftermarket is a trillion-yuan market with a fragmented structure that is gradually consolidating, providing opportunities for IAM players to increase their market share [4][18]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 15.88 billion, 18.73 billion, and 22.11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.7%, 18.0%, and 18.02% [2][4]. Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive aftermarket for over 10 years, focusing on tire and chassis components, automotive maintenance, and other automotive parts and services [4][8]. - It has established an integrated online and offline business model, leveraging its brand, management, and financial strengths to create a competitive moat [4][29]. Industry Analysis - The automotive aftermarket is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing vehicle ownership and average vehicle age [18][19]. - The market has historically been dominated by dealers, but the share of independent third-party players (IAM) is expected to rise as traditional dealers face challenges [21][24]. Competitive Landscape - The IAM sector currently has a low concentration, with the top five players holding only about 3% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [26][28]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share from traditional dealers due to its competitive pricing and rapid store expansion [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of approximately 18% from 2019 to 2023, and has recently turned profitable for the first time in 2023 [15][17]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 7% in 2019 to 25% in 2023, reflecting effective cost control and a shift towards higher-margin automotive maintenance services [17][29]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its presence in second-tier cities and optimize its business structure to enhance profitability [4][15]. - Key growth drivers include increasing registered users and transaction conversion rates, supported by the expansion of online orders [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tuhu-W (09690 HK) with a target price of HKD 28 [1][9] Core Views - Tuhu is a leading internet-based auto service company in China with nearly 6000 stores (152 self-operated and 5757 franchised) as of 2023, ranking first in store count among all auto service providers in China [1] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, ranking first in IAM store auto service revenue in 2022 [1] - Tuhu's main revenue comes from tires and chassis parts (40%) and car maintenance (36%) [1] - The Chinese auto service market exceeded RMB 1 2 trillion in 2022, with a 10% CAGR from 2018 to 2022 [2] - Tuhu has three competitive advantages in "goods, stores, and people": - Goods: High gross margin potential from self-controlled products (currently 26%, could reach over 50%) [2] - Stores: Strong store expansion capability with 93% profitable stores and 6-month ramp-up period for franchised stores [2] - People: Low user penetration rate (24%) but high retention rate (57% repurchase rate in Q1 2023) [2] Company Overview - Tuhu was founded in 2011 and has grown to become China's leading independent auto service brand with 5909 Tuhu Workshop stores and 19000 partner stores as of Q1 2023 [13] - The company has 115 million registered users and 19 3 million transacting users in 2023, with 10 2 million MAU in Q1 2023 [13] - Tuhu achieved revenue of RMB 13 6 billion in 2023, with gross profit of RMB 3 36 billion and gross margin of 24 7% [14] Industry Analysis - China's auto service market reached RMB 12 398 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a 9 0% CAGR to RMB 19 319 billion by 2027 [23] - Key demand drivers include car ownership, average vehicle age, and per-vehicle maintenance spending [23] - China's passenger car ownership reached 270 million in 2022, with per 1000 people ownership of 194, much lower than developed countries [25] - The average vehicle age in China is 6 2 years (2022), significantly lower than the US (12 2 years) and EU (12 3 years) [28] - NEV penetration in China reached 4 6% in 2022 and is expected to reach 20 5% by 2027 [26] Competitive Advantages - Tuhu has three main competitive advantages: 1) Product advantage: Potential for gross margin improvement through self-controlled products [2] 2) Store advantage: Strong store expansion capability with high standardization and profitability [2] 3) User advantage: Low penetration but high retention rate [2] - The company has built a comprehensive supply chain infrastructure with 34 regional warehouses and 511 front warehouses as of 2023 [54] - Tuhu's franchised stores have a 6-month ramp-up period and 93% profitability rate for stores open over 6 months [54] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 13 6 billion in 2023 to RMB 19 2 billion in 2026 [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 670 million in 2023 to RMB 1 47 billion in 2026 [3] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profit of RMB 884 million in 2024, RMB 1 28 billion in 2025, and RMB 1 67 billion in 2026 [9] Valuation - Based on a 30x PE multiple for 2024 earnings, the target market cap is HKD 22 6 billion, implying a target price of HKD 28 [9] - The valuation is supported by Tuhu's strong growth potential and profitability improvement during its rapid store expansion phase [9]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·专业零售(HS) 途虎-W（09690.HK） 车后 IAM 龙头的模式优势、扩张边界和盈 2024年 06月 11日 利方向 证券分析师 张良卫 买入（首次） 执业证书：S0600516070001 [Table_EPS] 021-60199793 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 营业总收入（百万元） 11563 13606 15437 17987 20606 证券分析师 黄细里 同比(%) (1.42) 17.67 13.46 16.52 14.56 归母净利润（百万元） (2,136.17) 6,702.94 523.07 1,028.28 1,576.58 执业证书：S0600520010001 同比(%) - - (92.20) 96.58 53.32 021-60199793 Non-IFRS净利润（百万元） -551.93 481.31 735.50 1,228.28 1,776.58 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) - - 52.81 67.00 44.64 研究 ...

汽车/汽车服务 公 司 研 途虎-W（09690.HK） 从北美四大汽配连锁看途虎成长空间 究 2024年05月31日 ——港股公司深度报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 殷晟路（分析师） 陈诺（联系人） yinshenglu@kysec.cn chennuo@kysec.cn 日期 2024/5/31 证 书编号：S0790522080001 证书编号：S0790123070031 当前股价(港元) 25.600  对标北美四大汽配连锁，途虎的市占率和毛利率仍有较大上升空间 港 一年最高最低(港元) 37.700/9.010 北美汽配连锁AutoZone、O’Reilly、Advance Auto Parts、NAPA CR4 2021年门店 股 公 总市值(亿港元) 210.39 数量市占率高达49 %，竞争格局高度集中。 司 流通市值(亿港元) 210.39  AutoZone定位“社区商店”，直营门店数量最多，DIY占比超7成； 深 总股本(亿股) 8.22  O'Reilly坚持双重客户战略，受益于DIFM业务的高增速，市值反超第一； 度 报 流通港股(亿股) 8.22  Advance Auto ...

证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Tabl2e0_2D4a年te]0 5月 27日 [ITabAleM_Titl市e] 场龙头，盈利能力持续提升 [途Tab虎le_T-itWle2(] 9690.HK) 评级及分析师信息 [►T a b汽le_车Su服mm务a连ry]锁 第一品牌，利润率快速提升 [评Ta级bl：e_ Rank] 增持 上次评级： 首次覆盖 1）截至2023 年底，公司拥有5909 家途虎工厂店，覆盖城市 目标价格(港元)： 超 300 个。23Q1 客户复购率57%，体现客户对产品和服务的认 可。 最新收盘价(港元)： 25.05 2）门店扩张带动收入稳健增长。2019-2023 年途虎工场店数量 [股Ta票bl代e_码Ba：se data] 9690 从 1423 家扩张至5909 家门店，CAGR32.94%；公司营业收入由 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： 37.7/9.01 2019 年的70亿元增长至2023 年的 136 亿元，CAGR17.9%。 总市值(亿港元) 205.87 3)经调整净利润于2023 年首次转正，达到4.81 亿元, 我们认 为利润率提升主要系规模化+ ...

投资逻辑 乘用车保有量和车龄的增长，汽车维保需求预计增加。独立后市 场服务供应商渠道(IAM)凭借广泛的门店分布和合理的价格，相 比 4s 店预计会获得更多流量倾斜。途虎在 IAM 汽车服务收入规 模和门店数量上均位列第一。新能源汽车渗透率的提升或带来行 业新挑战，其维保服务不同于燃油车，日常维护成本较低，但洗 美、改装等需求提升。途虎积极布局新能源工位改造、新能源维 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 保技师培养、加强产业链合作。 40.00 350 门店标准化保障网络可拓展性，向下沉市场渗透。公司 2023 年 35.00 300 250 门店数量5909 家，同比增长27%。其中自营途虎工场店152 家， 30.00 200 25.00 加盟途虎工场店 5757 家。2023 年新增门店数中 70%以上来自二 150 20.00 100 线及以下城市,未来预计自营店数量保持稳定，通过加盟店拓 15.00 50 展。据招股书，截至 2023Q1,公司综合毛利率、自营途虎工场 10.00 0 62 6 2 62 店、加盟途虎工场店、合作门店的毛利率分别为 25%、5.5%、 9 2 3 03 1 3 04 2 ...

证券研究报告 途虎-W（9690.HK）： IAM龙头发力万亿汽后蓝海市场，加快低 线城市布局，模式清晰业绩加速释放 股票投资评级：买入|上调 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 ...