Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The overall container shipping rates have decreased, with the SCFI composite index dropping by 9.7% to 1317 points, and specific routes such as Shanghai-Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean seeing declines of 11.1% and 12.0% respectively [1][8] - The refined oil tanker rates have increased, with the BCTI index rising by 4.6% to 890 points, while the MR rates for the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed mixed results [1][9] - The dry bulk market has shown strength during the traditional off-season, with the BDI index increasing by 12.0% to 1949 points, driven by a mismatch in supply and demand [1][8] Group 2: Express Logistics - YTO Express held a conference emphasizing the importance of building a resilient supply chain and adhering to national postal policies [2] - The State Post Bureau has prioritized the governance of illegal charges in rural express delivery as part of its 2026 initiatives [3] - Macro trends indicate a resilient demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while others like China Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce losses significantly [4] - The State Council has issued a plan to enhance service consumption, which includes transportation services, aiming to stimulate economic growth [4] - Spring Festival travel demand is strong, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [5][6] Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence, which could impact oil shipping routes [7] - The Atlantic freight market is experiencing a surge, with dry bulk rates showing unexpected strength due to concentrated cargo volumes and tight capacity [8] - China's port cargo throughput has decreased, with a reported decline of 1.70% in total cargo and a 4.35% drop in container throughput [10] Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volumes showing a slight decline of 3.35% [11] - Shenzhen International reported a 3.3% increase in toll revenue for December 2025, indicating stable growth in road transport [12] - Zhongyuan Express plans to recognize credit impairment and asset impairment provisions totaling 950 million, forecasting a 30% decline in annual net profit [12]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a significant increase in passenger demand and flight operations, driven by factors such as longer holiday periods and the recovery of the inbound and outbound tourism market [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts that during the Spring Festival period, the national civil aviation passenger transport volume may reach 95 million, with a total of 780,000 flights expected, representing a 5% year-on-year increase in daily average flights [1]. - The travel demand is anticipated to rise due to the combination of holiday length and the recovery of tourism, leading to improved passenger load factors and ticket prices in the civil aviation industry [1][6]. Group 2: Airline Operations - China International Airlines plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, a 10.1% increase from 2025, with 9 C919 aircraft deployed on various routes [2]. - China Eastern Airlines intends to utilize 822 aircraft, including 14 C919 jets, executing 125,000 flights, with a focus on increasing capacity in domestic and international markets [3]. - China Southern Airlines aims to operate over 126,000 flights, with significant increases in domestic and international routes, including the deployment of C919 aircraft [3]. Group 3: Market Demand - The ticket booking data indicates a peak in demand, with over 5.21 million domestic tickets and 1.61 million international tickets booked, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 22% and 9%, respectively [5]. - The trend of combining family visits with tourism is emerging, leading to sustained demand for travel during the Spring Festival [5]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The civil aviation industry is expected to achieve a balanced supply-demand relationship, with a potential increase in profitability as the market stabilizes [6]. - Factors such as the recovery of business travel, the aging population's consumption potential, and the steady recovery of the inbound tourism market are likely to create a supply-demand gap, which could enhance airline revenue levels [6].

Core Insights - Hangzhou Airport has upgraded its "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service, expanding it from the existing China Southern Airlines "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route to include the "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route, enhancing travel convenience for passengers [1] Group 1: Service Expansion - The "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service allows passengers without checked luggage to arrive at the boarding gate up to 15 minutes before flight departure, breaking traditional check-in deadlines [1] - Since its launch on the "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route, the service has assisted over 100,000 passengers, enabling more than 1,000 late arrivals to board their flights successfully [1] Group 2: Target Audience and Benefits - The "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route serves as a crucial air passage connecting Zhejiang to the Greater Bay Area, catering to a concentrated flow of business and travel passengers [1] - The service includes dedicated check-in counters, clear directional signage, expedited security checks, and priority shuttle services, significantly reducing travel time and enhancing passenger experience [1] Group 3: Future Developments - Hangzhou Airport plans to deepen collaboration with airlines and continue innovating service products to meet diverse travel needs, aiming to improve travel convenience and passenger satisfaction [1]

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 2026.02. 02 本文字数：2338，阅读时长大约4分钟 2月2日，为期40天的2026年春运正式拉开帷幕。由于返乡探亲、学生放假、旅游度假多重客流叠加，使得春运首日就呈现出需求旺盛、出行目的地多 元等特征。 民航局数据显示，今天全民航预计保障航班19080班，运输旅客219万人次。据航旅纵横大数据，春运第一天的国内航线机票预订量超186万张，比去 年春运同期增长约5%；出入境航线机票预订量超25万张，比去年春运同期增长约7%。 记者采访的多家航司和旅游平台均预计，在史上最长春节、亲子游需求火热、外国游客"反向春运"体验中国年等多重因素叠加下，今年春节有望刷 新"最热春节"纪录，民航旅客量也有望创历史新高。 国内部分航线已售罄 在上海虹桥国际机场记者看到，早晨7点多开始，2026年春运的首个进出港航班高峰就已到来，出发大厅区域旅客往来密集。 东航地服部虹桥旅客服务中心副总经理熊杰对记者介绍，连日来东航日均服务的进出港旅客数量持续增长，特别是随着上海市中小学放假，携带孩子出 行的家庭旅客和无陪伴儿童数量明显增多。今天春运首日，东航的旅客运输量将突破42万人次。 东航营销部网络收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has commenced, with significant increases in flight operations and passenger traffic, driven by a combination of returning home, family visits, student travel, and tourism demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Flight Operations and Passenger Traffic - The civil aviation sector is expected to operate 19,080 flights and transport 2.19 million passengers on the first day of the Spring Festival travel season [1][2]. - Beijing's two airports plan to handle a total of 88,800 flight movements during the Spring Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [2]. - Major airports such as Guangzhou Baiyun, Shanghai Pudong, and Beijing Capital are experiencing the highest traffic, with specific routes showing strong demand [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Route Focus - Airlines are increasing capacity on domestic and international routes, focusing on winter tourism and return home routes [3][4]. - Air China plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, with a 15% increase in capacity for routes to Northeast China [3]. - China Southern Airlines is enhancing its services on popular routes, including daily flights from Beijing to Altay [3]. Group 3: Service Enhancements - Airlines are introducing various services to improve passenger experience, such as online ticket standby and specialized baggage handling for ski equipment [5][6]. - Eastern Airlines has launched an online ticket standby service that automates the process of monitoring flight availability and issuing tickets [6]. - Hainan Airlines is promoting seamless check-in and baggage transfer services across multiple airports, enhancing convenience for travelers [6]. Group 4: Airport and Transportation Coordination - Airports are optimizing transportation services, including new bus routes to major railway hubs and enhanced ride-hailing services [7]. - Daxing Airport has implemented measures to ensure smooth operations during adverse weather conditions, coordinating closely with relevant authorities [7].

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China's four major airlines in 2025 shows significant divergence, with Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines expected to turn losses into profits, while China National Aviation and Eastern Airlines are projected to remain in the red [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - China National Aviation anticipates a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion RMB for 2025, with a non-recurring net loss expected to be between 1.9 billion and 2.7 billion RMB [1]. - Eastern Airlines projects a total profit of about 200 million to 300 million RMB, with a net loss estimated between 1.3 billion and 1.8 billion RMB, and a non-recurring net loss of 2.7 billion to 3.3 billion RMB [1]. - In contrast, Hainan Airlines expects a significant improvement, forecasting a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 900 million to 1.1 billion RMB [1]. - China Southern Airlines also predicts a turnaround, with a net profit forecast of 800 million to 1 billion RMB and a non-recurring net profit of 130 million to 190 million RMB [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Hainan Airlines attributes its expected profitability to a favorable civil aviation market, improved capacity management, the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port, and exchange gains from the appreciation of the RMB [1]. - China Southern Airlines highlights its ongoing improvement in operational efficiency despite external uncertainties, supply chain pressures, and rising costs of aircraft and materials [2]. - All four airlines reported profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with China National Aviation achieving a net profit of 1.87 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.31% [2]. - Eastern Airlines reported a net profit of 2.1 billion RMB, successfully turning around from losses, while China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines reported net profits of 2.3 billion RMB and 2.8 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.40% and 30.93%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].

针对春运期间可能出现的大风寒潮、冰雪凝冻等复杂天气，南航贵州公司提前开展运行形势研判，科学 调整航班计划，并同步优化突发事件快速响应机制，配齐配强应急备用设备，实行24小时专人轮岗盯 控，筑牢生产运行"硬件屏障"；针对航班延误、旅客滞留等场景建立"信息同步、资源调配、服务保 障"全链条协同模式，确保航班安全、平稳、有序运行。 编辑：刘润榕 新华财经贵阳2月2日电（记者肖艳）记者从南航贵州公司获悉，南航贵州公司春运首日正式引进第23架 波音737-800飞机，机队规模首次达到23架。为满足乘客出行需求，南航贵州公司计划新增和加密春运 航班共计672架次。 针对广州、深圳、上海、杭州至贵阳及贵阳至哈尔滨、沈阳等冰雪旅游城市航班需求激增的情况，南航 贵州公司精准布局航线网络，计划新增和加密春运航班672架次。一方面，在贵阳至上海、杭州等华东 航线投放载客量更大的177座—185座机型，满足热点航线需求；另一方面，在新开贵阳至沈阳直飞航 线，加密贵阳至乌鲁木齐、杭州、义乌往返航班的基础上，每天再新增1到2班贵阳至台州、贵阳至沈 阳、贵阳至南京往返航班。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for Chinese airlines in 2025 indicates a trend of "significantly reduced losses, some airlines turning profitable, and accelerated profit differentiation" [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Forecast - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines have turned profitable, contributing significantly to the sector's profit recovery, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines remain in the loss zone, with China Eastern's losses narrowing [1][2]. - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are the core contributors to profit recovery, while Huaxia Airlines continues to show growth, reflecting the relative advantages of regional routes and operational flexibility [2][3]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the industry remains under pressure with losses prevailing, but most airlines show significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a continued recovery trend despite seasonal profitability pressures [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand remains a key variable for ticket price recovery and profit improvement, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and enhanced leisure tourism [4]. - The supply constraints and cost pressures are likely to amplify profit elasticity, with slow aircraft deliveries maintaining capacity control and policies aimed at reducing disorderly competition stabilizing revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The top picks include Hainan Airlines (600221.SH) and Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), with a focus on China National Aviation (601111.SH, 00753), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [5].