Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) is "Buy" with a target price of 35.85 [1]. Core Views - Yutong Bus is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance for 2024, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 38.2 billion to 42.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135% [2][4]. - The company anticipates a strong sales performance in both domestic and international markets, with total bus sales expected to reach 46,918 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [4]. - The implementation of a "trade-in" policy is expected to boost domestic sales, particularly for new energy buses, as the government increases subsidies for replacing older vehicles [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yutong Bus forecasts a net profit of approximately 40.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.6%, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 16.1 billion yuan, up 110.3% [4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 270 billion yuan in 2023 to 352 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.2% [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 25.4% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 23.9% [5]. Sales and Market Share - Yutong Bus's export sales are projected to reach 14,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, contributing to a total market share of 22.7% in the Chinese bus export market [4]. - The company is also expected to capture a 24.1% market share in the new energy bus segment, with sales of 13,795 units, a year-on-year increase of 93.3% [4]. Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for Yutong Bus for the years 2024 to 2026 are 40 billion, 45 billion, and 52 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.2 to 42.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%, which is above expectations [8] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110% to 113%, driven by the increase in the fair value of financial assets [8] - The company achieved a record high net profit per vehicle of 103,600 yuan in Q4 2024, with sales reaching 15,572 units, the highest since 2020, benefiting from economies of scale and optimized sales structure [8] - The company has increased its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 36.5 billion yuan and 42.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 49.9 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 21.799 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 36.481 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 759.14 million yuan, expected to rise to 4.062 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 123.54% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.83 yuan in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 15.41 [1] - The company's total assets are expected to reach 35.346 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.12% [9]

证券代码:600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临 2025-004 宇通客车股份有限公司 2024 年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 本期业绩预告适用于实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比 上升 50%以上。 经财务部门初步测算，公司预计 2024 年年度归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为 38.2 亿元至 42.7 亿元，同比增加 110%至 135%。 扣除非经常性损益事项后，公司预计 2024 年年度归属于 上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 31.8 亿元至 36.1 亿元，同比增加 125%至 155%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计 2024 年年度实现归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为 38.2 亿元至 42.7 亿元，与上年同期相比， 将增加 20.0 亿元至 24.5 亿元，同比增加 110%至 135%。 2、预计 2024 年年度实现 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨宇通客车（600066.SH） [Table_Title] 宇通客车 12 月销量点评：12 月销量同环比高 增，全年销量目标超额完成 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年 12 月客车销量。宇通 12 月销售客车 8615 辆，同比+82.9%，环比+130.6%， 其中大中客车销量 7135，同比+78.0%，环比+160.0%；2024 年共销售客车 46918 辆，同比 +28.5%，大中客销量 40339 辆，同比+27.0%。国内市场，座位客车持续增长；海外市场，全 球化+高端化战略推进，出口凸显盈利水平；电池成本下降叠加规模效应，支撑公司业绩持续提 升。公司资本开支放缓，现金流充足保障高分红。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 宇通客车（600066.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 宇通客 ...

要点如下：1）公司预期2025年出口销量近10%增长，国内市场略增；其 中2025年以旧换新政策或对公交车销量有帮助，但幅度不好判断；2）2024 年4季度以及2025年全年利润率展望佳，因为规模效应和产品结构改 善；3）公司对分红率和资本支出指引未变，现金流表现佳，因此会维持高 分红的战略。 2025年展望积极 海外市场方面，公司初步预期2025年出口1.5万台以上，较2024年1.4万台 水平同比增长约10%，其中新能源客车的出口销量或增长更快。公司预期出 口业务毛利率仍有提升空间，主要由于2025年新能源客车占比提高，以 及2024年下半年电池价格进一步下降。宇通客车估算自身可触及海外市场 容量在8-10万台，主要集中在竞争相对缓和的中高端市场。国内市场方面， 受益于以旧换新政策的加码，宇通预期国内公交车市场将增长，但旅游车增 速或放缓。 abc 2025 年 01 月 13 日 快评 近期投资者反馈 宇通客车 2025瑞银大中华研讨会 根据我们和投资者的路演反馈，宇通客车股价近期涨幅较大，投资者分歧增 加。部分投资者选择获利了结，等待逢低布局；也有部分投资者错过 了2024年11月以来的股价反弹，但看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the high demand in December continues, with expectations for production and sales in 2024 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company experienced significant growth in production and sales in December, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacements and a peak in domestic and international deliveries [8] - The report highlights a strong performance in the sales of medium, large, and light buses, with December sales showing substantial year-on-year and month-on-month increases [8] - The new energy bus delivery volume reached a record high in December, showcasing the company's competitive strength in the new energy vehicle market [8] - The revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to better-than-expected sales performance [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 34.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 28.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 95.58% [1] - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.61 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.21 times [1] - For 2025 and 2026, the revenue is projected to be 41.45 billion yuan and 49.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.12 billion yuan and 4.97 billion yuan [1][8]

Key Points Industry/Company - **Industry**: Bus manufacturing industry - **Company**:宇通客车 (Yutong Bus) Core Views and Arguments - **Investment Recommendation**: The analyst emphasizes the opportunity in宇通客车's third round of growth, suggesting investors should not miss out on this round if they missed the previous two rounds in 2023 and 2024 [1]. - **Stock Selection**: The analyst favors companies with a宇通客车-style dividend growth, particularly in the first two months of the first quarter due to the pre-Chinese New Year rush [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key to宇通客车's investment is to judge annual sales, performance, and dividends. The analyst believes the core driver is 2024's sales and economic performance [2]. - **Revenue and Valuation**: The analyst expects the company's revenue to break through 50 billion and reach 80 billion, with valuation to be further clarified by the company's performance forecast, dividend guidance, and shareholder meetings in the first quarter [3]. - **Sales Data**:宇通客车 achieved a total sales volume of 86,000 units in December, a new high since 2020, with exports reaching 2,600 units, exceeding expectations, especially with 800 units being new energy exports [4]. - **Export Sales Structure**:宇通客车's export sales structure has improved significantly, with Europe accounting for a significant portion of the exports and profits, driven by the strong performance of new energy exports [6]. - **Profit Expectations**: The analyst has updated the profit forecast to over 3.5 billion for 2024, with Q4 expected to be around 1.2 billion. The 2025 profit forecast is conservatively set at 4.2 billion [7]. - **Export Outlook**: The analyst expects the export volume to reach 16,000 to 18,000 units in 2025, with new energy exports expected to exceed 3,600 units [8]. - **Performance and Valuation Switch**:宇通客车 is entering a period of intense catalysts, similar to previous growth cycles. The analyst believes the company's performance and stock price growth are driven by both earnings and sales volume verification [10]. - **Historical Performance**:宇通客车 has consistently achieved sales targets, with only one exception during the pandemic. The analyst emphasizes the industry's predictability and the reliability of the company's guidance [13]. Other Important Points - **Dividend Expectations**: The analyst expects the company to provide a more reasonable dividend forecast after the official guidance from the company [12]. - **Industry Predictability**: The analyst compares the bus manufacturing industry's predictability to that of the city bus industry, emphasizing the importance of the company's guidance and its impact on stock prices [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.24 CNY per share [78][96] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the large and medium-sized bus market, with a market share of 36.1% in 2023, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [80][63] - The company's new energy bus sales accounted for 40.7% of total sales in 2018, up from 12.1% in 2014 [80][69] - The company's export business has been growing rapidly, with export sales increasing by 78.9% in 2023, accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's profitability has improved significantly, with net profit increasing by 131.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][96] Industry Overview - The new energy bus industry has seen strong growth, with cumulative sales of 6-meter and above new energy buses reaching 39,400 units from January to November 2024, up 22.9% year-on-year [1] - The industry is benefiting from policy support, including subsidies for new energy city buses and battery replacements, with subsidies of up to 80,000 CNY per vehicle [72] - The export market for buses has also been growing, with industry exports reaching 55,000 units from January to November 2024, up 38.7% year-on-year [93] Company Performance - The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.075 billion CNY, up 27.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.432 billion CNY, up 131.49% year-on-year [8] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 12.32%, or 23.9% after adjusting for accounting standards, with overseas business gross margin significantly higher at 31.7% compared to 23% for domestic business [12][13] - The company's operating cash flow has been strong, with net operating cash flow reaching 4.717 billion CNY in 2023, up 45% year-on-year [17] Export Business - The company's export business has been a key growth driver, with export sales reaching 10,200 units in 2023, up 78.9% year-on-year, and accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's export ASP is nearly double the domestic ASP, contributing to improved profitability [8] - The company has achieved significant export milestones, including the largest single delivery of new energy buses to Chile (214 units) and the largest batch of new energy buses to Europe (250 units to Greece) [6] New Energy and Hydrogen Strategy - The company is actively exploring hydrogen fuel cell solutions, with its fuel cell system platform offering advantages such as low hydrogen consumption (4.43kg/100km for 12-meter buses), long lifespan (11,062 hours with 1.8% decay), and good low-temperature performance [1] - The company has been involved in hydrogen fuel cell bus demonstrations in Zhengzhou, with 423 hydrogen fuel cell buses in operation as of November 2023 [1] - The company's hydrogen fuel cell bus sales are expected to grow significantly, with a target of 5,000 units by 2025 and 20,000 units by 2030 [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 34.424 billion CNY in 2024, up 27.3% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.246 billion CNY, up 78.65% year-on-year [96] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 46.521 billion CNY by 2026, with net profit reaching 5.022 billion CNY [96] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.47 CNY in 2024, 1.88 CNY in 2025, and 2.27 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 17.90x, 13.96x, and 11.57x respectively [96]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses a company in the high-end vehicle manufacturing industry, particularly focusing on electric and intelligent vehicle technologies. The company has established a strong competitive position in Western markets through significant R&D investments, leading to higher selling prices compared to peers [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **High-End Strategy Success**: The company's high-end strategy is deemed successful, especially in export markets where average selling prices are significantly above industry levels. For instance, the average selling price of BYD's products in Europe has reached over 4.4 million RMB, while Yutong's average is around 3.3 million RMB, compared to Yutong's overall new energy export average of approximately 2.34 million RMB [1][2]. 2. **Cost Control Advantages**: The company employs an accelerated depreciation method, specifically the double declining balance method, resulting in a high annual depreciation rate of 9.7% to 19.4%. This approach, combined with stable fixed asset investments, enhances cost control and profitability [1][2]. 3. **Export Price Trends**: The company has seen a significant increase in export prices, with new energy product export prices exceeding 2.3 million RMB, which is higher than the industry average of 1.6 million RMB. The potential for further price increases is anticipated as Yutong's export volume in Europe grows [1][2]. 4. **Acquisition Impact**: The acquisition of a parts supplier, Jindai, has led to improved operational synergies, reducing procurement costs and logistics expenses, thereby enhancing overall profitability. Jindai had previously demonstrated strong profitability with gross margins above 26% and net margins between 13% to 15% [3]. 5. **Labor Cost Advantages**: The company benefits from lower labor costs in Henan province, which is advantageous for a labor-intensive industry like bus manufacturing. This geographic advantage helps in maintaining competitive pricing and reducing operational costs [3]. 6. **Dividend Policy**: The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a current dividend yield exceeding 8%. This is supported by increasing profits and low capital expenditures, making it an attractive option for investors seeking dividend income [4]. 7. **Profit Forecasts**: Short-term profit forecasts indicate a projected profit of approximately 3.4 billion RMB for the current year, increasing to around 4.2 billion RMB next year, and reaching 4.8 to 5 billion RMB by 2026. This reflects a strong growth trajectory, particularly in the context of new energy vehicle demand [4]. 8. **Market Positioning**: The company is positioned as a leading global player in new energy technology, expected to benefit from ongoing industry growth and policy support for electric vehicles. The combination of dividend yield and growth potential is highlighted as a compelling investment opportunity [4]. Other Important Insights - The company has implemented stock incentive plans for over 1,000 key personnel, indicating a commitment to aligning employee interests with company performance [3]. - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing for investment in Yutong, suggesting that the company is well-positioned for future stock price appreciation [4].

证券代码:600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临 2024-059 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 宇通客车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于2024 年12月19日收到财务总监吴屹伦先生的辞职报告书，吴屹伦先生 因个人原因申请辞去公司财务总监职务，辞职报告书自送达董事 会之日起生效。公司董事会对吴屹伦先生在任职期间为公司所做 的工作表示衷心感谢。 李盼盼先生简历后附。 宇通客车股份有限公司 2024 年 12 月 20 日，公司召开董事会审计委员会 2024 年第 五次会议和董事会提名委员会 2024 年第二次会议，审议通过了 《关于聘任财务负责人的议案》；同日，公司召开第十一届董事 会第九次会议，同意聘任李盼盼先生兼任公司财务负责人，任期 与本届董事会一致。 特此公告。 宇通客车股份有限公司董事会 二零二四年十二月二十日 附简历： 李盼盼 男，1985 年出生，本科学历。2008 年毕业于湖南 大学车辆工程专业，同年 7 月进入公司，历任公司公交产品开发 经理、质量保证部副部长、质量总监兼质量保证 ...