Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is entering a new era of functional restructuring and value enhancement, driven by policy guidance, institutional improvement, and capital support, leading to a stable upward trend in the A-share market [5][13]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic environment is complex and variable, while the domestic economy is recovering but facing structural adjustments [5][13]. - Policies supporting technological innovation and green development are becoming clearer, indicating that new economic momentum is accelerating [5][13]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The year 2026 represents a critical juncture with unprecedented opportunities and responsibilities, as the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged [6][14]. - A new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is reshaping the global competitive landscape, integrating the capital market more deeply into the national rejuvenation journey [6][14]. Group 3: Strategic Actions - Financial institutions must internalize compliance and risk control, embedding values of compliance, integrity, professionalism, and stability into their cultural DNA [6][14]. - There is a need to focus on creating sustainable value through financial services that meet national and public needs, achieving a balance between economic and social benefits [6][14]. - Building a healthy market requires collaboration among regulators, institutions, enterprises, intermediaries, media, and investors to create a transparent, standardized, vibrant, and resilient ecosystem [6][14]. Group 4: Institutional Commitment - Financial institutions are tasked not only with generating economic returns but also with fulfilling the mission assigned by the times, contributing to high-quality economic development and the construction of a financial power [7][15]. - The commitment to long-term support for the real economy and value discovery is emphasized, with a focus on responsible and pragmatic actions [7][15].

e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的 主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 时值马年春节假期，A股股市正处于休市中，但证券时报·e公司记者注意到，不少券商分析师春节"不打烊"。 大年初一（2月17日），部分券商坚持发布投资"干货"。有券商提到，A股估值处于历史中低位，全球比较具性价比。 国金证券研究发布了一篇《驭势马年新动能丨AI应用篇》的文章。文章指出，AI应用产业趋势确立，2026年有望迎来"双击"。其认为，部分公司AI订单/收 入/ARR占到整体收入的比例达到10%及以上，冷启动时间已过。行业基本面于2025年下半年确立拐点，利润弹性高、赔率显著。 针对AI应用产业角度，国金证券推荐四大方向。一是超级入口：大模型量收共振，作为流量与商业化双重枢纽的逻辑已实现。二是AI Infra：软件定义算 力，获取"卖铲子"的确定收益。软件基建决定了AI应用的成本曲线与能力天花板，且先于应用端兑现业绩。三是高增长：AI技术升维，营销、漫剧成为商业 化落地 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that A-shares are currently undervalued compared to historical levels, presenting a global comparative advantage [1][2][6] - Guotai Junan Securities predicts that the AI application industry will establish a trend, with a potential "double hit" expected in 2026, as some companies see AI orders/revenue/ARR constituting over 10% of total revenue [1][6] - The report identifies four key directions for AI applications: super entry points, AI infrastructure, high growth sectors, and high barrier industries [1][6] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongfang Caifu Securities indicates that 2026 will be a phase of "structural repair" and "new momentum cultivation," necessitating asset diversification to manage uncertainties [2][7] - The report discusses various asset classes: cash assets are under pressure in a low-interest environment but provide liquidity; bond assets are reasonably valued but face pressure on long-term yields; stock assets are seen as undervalued, particularly in high-dividend sectors [2][7][8] - The recommendation includes a pyramid model for asset allocation, with a focus on high-grade bonds and utility stocks, while also suggesting participation in industrial metals and frontier sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications [8]

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国金证券研究所 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国金证券研究所 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

新 春 快 乐 顺流逆流，皆为行路的风景；心有罗盘，便有笃定的方向。券商中国微信平台粉丝总量已强势突破600万大关，值此2026年新春佳节来临之际，我们深深感恩每一位读 者朋友长久的信任与陪伴。在此，券商中国、券中社APP诚邀各大金融机构共同录制新春寄语视频，一起回顾2025年的精彩历程与深刻洞察，携手展望2026年的崭新蓝 图与无限可能。 国金证券党委书记、董事长冉云在《预见金马》年终策划中表示，过去一年，全球经济环境复杂多变，但中国资本市场展现了强大的内生韧性。 证券行业在新"国九条"的指引下，正加速回归服务实体经济的本源，从追求规模转向追量更重质，从短期博弈转向长期价值。 展望2026年，冉云表示，新的一年，金融强国建设的蓝图催人奋进，行业将更加坚定地行驶在高质量发展的主航道上。国金证券将继续坚守"本 分"，深耕主责主业，做实体经济的长期"陪伴人"和价值发现的坚定"守望者"。 以下为视频全文： 大家好，新年好！我是国金证券党委书记、董事长冉云。祝贺券商中国微信粉丝突破600万！ 寒暑流易，光华常新。转眼间，我们告别了耕耘不辍的2025年，迎来充满希望的2026年。在这辞旧迎新的美好时刻，很高兴通过券商中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese securities firms are increasingly expanding their overseas operations, with multiple major and mid-sized firms announcing initiatives for international capital operations at the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - On February 13, major firms including CITIC Securities, CICC, and Zhongtai Securities announced guarantees for their overseas subsidiaries [2]. - GF Securities reported a change in registered capital from 7.606 billion RMB to 7.825 billion RMB due to a completed H-share placement, with funds aimed at enhancing overseas subsidiary capital [2]. - GF Securities plans to list its zero-interest convertible bonds on the Vienna MTF [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - GF Securities is not the first to pursue overseas financing; Huatai Securities recently issued 10 billion HKD in zero-interest convertible bonds for international business support [5]. - Since 2025, over ten securities firms have made significant strides in international business, with firms like Western Securities and Dongwu Securities establishing wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong [6]. - The push into overseas markets represents a shift for Chinese securities firms from local intermediaries to global traders, driven by the need for risk hedging and capital flow [6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of mid-2025, 13 out of 16 comparable A-share listed securities firms reported over 10% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue [7]. - Notable revenue figures include CITIC Securities at 6.912 billion RMB (up 13.57%), CICC at 4.024 billion RMB (up 75.66%), and Haitong Securities at 2.459 billion RMB (up 76.21%) [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that a significant number of quality domestic enterprises will connect with global markets through Hong Kong, creating opportunities for IPOs and cross-border capital services [9]. - The competitive edge in overseas business will increasingly focus on cross-border derivatives and FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity) operations [10]. - Chinese securities firms are expanding beyond Hong Kong to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, establishing a comprehensive international business landscape [10]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The future growth potential for Chinese securities firms lies in cross-border wealth management, offshore RMB-related businesses, and investment banking in emerging markets [11]. - Firms are advised to build a composite team that understands both international rules and Chinese industries, while also enhancing cross-cultural integration [12].

Group 1 - The core index of the construction materials sector, the CSI All Construction Materials Index, fell by 2.05% as of February 13, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks included Hainan Ruize, which rose by 1.39%, while Jinjing Technology led the decline with a drop of 5.36% [1] - The Construction Materials ETF (159745) decreased by 1.77%, with a latest price of 0.72 yuan, but showed a cumulative increase of 8.24% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The Construction Materials ETF recorded a turnover rate of 2.51% and a transaction volume of 56.7866 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 183 million yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's scale increased by 12.2 million yuan over the past week, placing it in the top third of comparable funds [1] - The latest net outflow of funds from the ETF was 20.7035 million yuan, but there were net inflows on three out of the last five trading days, totaling 213 million yuan [1] Group 3 - Leverage funds are actively positioning in the market, with the latest margin buying amounting to 3.1003 million yuan and a margin balance of 33.6321 million yuan [1] - According to a report by Guojin Securities, global assets have entered a "Risk-off" mode due to various risk events, leading to a shift from growth to value stocks in the equity market [1] - The report highlights that sectors like industrials, materials, and real estate are gaining favor due to their characteristics that are difficult to replace with AI [1] Group 4 - Zhongyin Securities forecasts two potential turning points in the year: a "policy turning point" around the end of Q1 and a "fundamental turning point" around Q4, focusing on the improvement of demand and narrowing declines in second-hand housing prices [2] - The Construction Materials ETF has seen a net value increase of 28.68% over the past two years, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 24.25%, with an average monthly return of 6.65% during rising months [2] Group 5 - As of February 6, 2026, the Construction Materials ETF had a Sharpe ratio of 1.29, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3] - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year was 5.48%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24%, and it recovered the fastest among comparable funds [3] Group 6 - The management fee for the Construction Materials ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a tracking error of 0.065% over the past six months, the highest among comparable funds [4] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI All Construction Materials Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the construction materials sector [4] Group 7 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Construction Materials Index accounted for 61.6% of the index, including companies like Conch Cement and Dongfang Yuhong [5]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，从供给侧来看，黄磷作为典型的高耗能产品政策端严控新增 产能，同时基于能耗标准与产能规模加速推进行业节能降碳以及落后小产能出清；从需求侧来看，黄磷 下游主要应用于热法磷酸、草甘膦、三氯化磷等领域，一方面终端六氟磷酸锂为代表的新能源需求高速 增长，草甘膦等传统领域近年来需求相对稳定，另一方面硫磺价格的持续上涨导致湿法磷酸成本抬升， 间接提升热法磷酸性价比的同时有望为黄磷提供涨价空间，建议关注具备较大规模黄磷产能且具备一定 业绩弹性的相关标的。 国金证券主要观点如下： 供给侧：产能区域集中特征较为明显，新增产能受严格约束 根据《热法磷酸与湿法工业磷酸的技术经济分析》，生产单吨湿法工业磷酸需要消耗硫磺1.292吨，以 25年年初为基准，截至2026年2月4日国产硫磺价格为4065元/吨，累计上涨2569元/吨，累计涨幅约为 172%，根据硫磺单耗计算累计抬高湿法工业磷酸单吨生产成本3319元。2025年5月以来热法磷酸价格开 始低于湿法磷酸，且价差呈现扩大趋势，同时热法磷酸相较于湿法纯度较高，因此热法磷酸在硫磺价格 上涨的背景下性价比相对提升。 SMM预计，2026年硫磺供给增 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Convertible Bond Selection + Timing Strategy Weekly Tracking (as of February 2, 2026) - Report Date: February 2, 2025 - Report Source: Financial Products Center, Securities Research Report [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the three strategies jointly held 6 convertible bonds, namely Lanfan Convertible Bond, Changqi Convertible Bond, Qiaqia Convertible Bond, Fuhan Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond, and Zheng22 Convertible Bond. The sub - low - price strategy maintained low turnover, and the price center of the increased - holding targets was at a medium - high level. The option strategy also maintained low turnover [2] - The double - low strategy's increased - holding targets this week were mainly affected by the implied volatility, the factor of convertible bond price changes relative to the underlying stock price changes, and the环比 change of the conversion premium rate [6] - From an industry perspective, the model's recommended directions are petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The industry mainline is cyclical, mainly contributed by the factor of conversion price change relative to the underlying stock price change and the conversion premium rate factor. There is a marginal increase in social services [7] Strategy - related Summaries Sub - low - price Strategy - Increased - holding targets: ForceNuo Convertible Bond (123221), YinBang Convertible Bond (123252), etc. [4] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 5.44% this year, with an excess return of 1.65% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 25.15%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.21, the Calmar ratio was 3.96, the maximum drawdown was 6.35%, and the annualized excess return was 4.09% [10][12][26] - Factor: The factor was the average closing price of the past week, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 7.90%, the IC standard deviation was 22.29%, the ICIR was - 35.45%, the frequency of IC>0 was 18.53%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Option Strategy - Increased - holding targets: NaiPuZhuan02 (123265), LianRui Convertible Bond (118064), etc. [6] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 7.95% this year, with an excess return of 4.08% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 32.53%, the Sharpe ratio was 3.09, the Calmar ratio was 6.96, the maximum drawdown was 4.68%, and the annualized excess return was 10.12% [10][12][26] - Factor: The main factor was the intraday amplitude difference of the convertible bond relative to the underlying stock, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 4.40%, the IC standard deviation was 19.04%, the ICIR was - 23.09%, the frequency of IC>0 was 31.38%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Double - low Enhanced Strategy - Increased - holding targets (TOP10): ShuangLiang Convertible Bond (110095), LiZi Convertible Bond (111014), etc. [25] - Performance: It fell 2.63% in the past week, with an excess return of - 1.17% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 6.40% this year, with an excess return of 4.12% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 30.83%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.18, the Calmar ratio was 3.97, the maximum drawdown was 7.76%, and the annualized excess return was 14.17% [10][12][26] - Factor: Multiple factors were involved, such as the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past week, the average closing price in the past week, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past week, each with a weight of 20% [15] Industry Rotation Strategy - Recommended industries: Petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The top 5 industries and bottom 5 industries are also presented in the report [7][8] - Performance: It fell 1.38% in the past week, with an excess return of 0.10% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 4.34% this year, with an excess return of 2.10% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 23.38%, the Sharpe ratio was 1.71, the Calmar ratio was 3.52, the maximum drawdown was 6.64%, and the annualized excess return was 7.62% [10][12][26] - Factor: Four factors were used, including the Amihud ratio, the double - low factor's historical quantile, the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past 2 weeks, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past month, each with a weight of 25% [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in Chinese tourists traveling to Japan following travel advisories issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the consulate in Japan, with a notable drop in December [1] - Hainan has emerged as a new popular destination for Chinese tourists, with platforms like Qunar and Ctrip reporting over a 45% year-on-year increase in daily flight orders to Hainan during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Major source cities for Hainan tourism include Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with approximately 40% of tourists from Shanghai and surrounding areas and about 25% from Beijing [1] Group 2 - Domestic duty-free consumption continues to grow, with expectations for strong performance during the Spring Festival peak season [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for China Duty Free Group has been adjusted to 1.77, 2.79, and 3.34 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on various factors including the return of consumption in Japan and the popularity of Hainan tourism [1] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted EPS forecasts are projected to be 52.16, 33.15, and 27.69 times, referencing the closing price of 97.00 yuan on February 11, 2026 [1]