Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [4]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, indicating that this combination has historically performed better during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities likely to benefit more from these changes [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 1.59 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 17.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [2]. - The new housing transaction area for first-tier cities was 432,000 square meters, up 12.6% week-on-week but down 42.5% year-on-year [2]. - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 881,000 square meters, up 24.7% week-on-week and down 23.4% year-on-year [2]. - Third-tier cities had a transaction area of 276,000 square meters, up 4.9% week-on-week but down 47.7% year-on-year [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 2.003 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week growth of 4.7% but a year-on-year decline of 17.0% [2]. - First-tier cities accounted for 856,000 square meters in second-hand transactions, up 8.7% week-on-week [2]. - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 873,000 square meters, up 1.4% week-on-week [2]. - Third-tier cities recorded 273,000 square meters, up 3.7% week-on-week [2]. Credit Bonds - In the week of November 10-16, four credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, a decrease of eight from the previous week, with a total issuance of 3.62 billion yuan, down 6.63 billion yuan [3]. - The total repayment amount was 10.829 billion yuan, an increase of 4.359 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -7.209 billion yuan, down 10.989 billion yuan [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index had a cumulative change of 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.78 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14]. - A total of 84 stocks in the real estate sector rose, while 30 stocks fell, with the top five gainers being Qianjing Garden, China Wuyi, Huaxia Happiness, Guancheng Datong, and Rongsheng Development, with gains of 61.0%, 30.0%, 26.3%, 21.6%, and 18.2% respectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolving dynamics of the real estate market in China, highlighting trends in product offerings, customer preferences, and structural changes in residential transactions across different regions [5][24][31]. Group 1: Real Estate Product Dynamics - Huafa Group has launched a "city resort-style" quality residential project in Shanghai, integrating commercial and residential spaces to enhance the living experience [4][14]. - The market is seeing a shift towards higher quality and more diversified residential products, with a focus on creating a sense of place and community [16][24]. Group 2: Customer Trends - From January to October, the national market transaction structure has improved, with all product segments above 120 square meters showing year-on-year growth, particularly the 120-140 square meter segment, which increased by 1.2 percentage points [5][24]. - In major cities, the demand for three-bedroom units remains strong, maintaining over 60% market share, while four-bedroom units have seen a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points [31][37]. Group 3: Residential Product Structure Characteristics - The transaction structure is increasingly concentrated in the mid to high-end segments, with significant growth in the 500-800 million and 1-2 billion yuan price ranges [25][30]. - The high-end product market is particularly robust in the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta regions, with the share of products priced above 1 million yuan increasing by 1.6 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively [25][30]. Group 4: Product Highlights Analysis - The Guangzhou Poly Feili Jia Di project features unique architectural designs and high-value amenities, including a maximum river view of 800 meters and a blend of traditional and modern architectural styles [8][67]. - The project also emphasizes community features, such as a multi-functional neighborhood space and a high degree of customization in unit layouts, catering to high-net-worth buyers [10][67]. Group 5: Excellent Project Analysis - The project is strategically located near the Baihetan Business District, benefiting from comprehensive amenities, including educational institutions and healthcare facilities [60][61]. - The design incorporates cultural elements and modern aesthetics, aiming to create a landmark building that resonates with the local heritage while providing luxury living standards [67][70].

Core Points - The company provided a full joint liability guarantee for its associate company, Huizhou Daya Bay Kangcheng Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., for a loan of up to RMB 1.7 billion [2][3] - The guarantee covers all loan principal, interest, penalties, and related costs, with a guarantee period of three years after the debt is fulfilled [2][3] - The company has already fulfilled its guarantee responsibility by paying RMB 303.35 million to the designated repayment account of the loan bank [3] Summary by Sections Guarantee Responsibility Overview - The company approved a guarantee plan for 2022 at its board meeting and annual shareholders' meeting [1] - The company holds an indirect 44.22% stake in Kangcheng Company, which signed a loan agreement with two banks for the development of residential projects [2] Guarantee Execution - Due to a downturn in the real estate market, Kangcheng Company is unable to repay RMB 303.35 million of the loan by the due date [3] - The company has executed its guarantee obligation by paying the overdue amount to the bank [3] Basic Information of the Guaranteed Entity - Kangcheng Company has total assets of RMB 7.01 billion and liabilities of RMB 2.43 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a net asset value of RMB 4.58 billion [5] - The company reported a net loss of RMB 21.55 million for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Impact of Guarantee Execution on the Company - The company has established a receivable claim against Kangcheng Company due to the guarantee execution, which is not expected to significantly impact its normal operations [5] - The company will take measures to recover losses and protect the interests of itself and its investors [6]

本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内 容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、履行担保责任情况概述 （一）为参股公司提供担保的相关情况 珠海华发实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2022 年 4 月 8 日、2022 年 4 月 29 日分别召开了第十届董事局第十四次会议和 2021 年年度股东大会，审 议通过《关于公司 2022 年度担保计划的议案》，具体内容详见公司于 2022 年 4 月 9 日、2022 年 4 月 30 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及《上海 证券报》《中国证券报》《证券时报》《证券日报》披露的公告（公告编号：2022-020、 2022-032）。 股票代码：600325 股票简称：华发股份 公告编号：2025-098 珠海华发实业股份有限公司 关于履行担保责任的公告 2022 年 12 月 25 日，公司参股公司惠州大亚湾康成房地产开发有限公司（公 司间接持有 44.22%股权，以下简称"康成公司"）与兴业银行股份有限公司广州 分行、中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司惠州市分行（以下合称"贷款银行" ...

Market Overview - As of 10:30 AM today, the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 4004.76 points, above the six-month moving average, with a change of -0.34% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 9250.17 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking the Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 92 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Visionox (维信诺) with a deviation rate of 9.39% and a price increase of 9.98% [1] - Magv Technology (磁谷科技) with a deviation rate of 8.21% and a price increase of 11.26% [1] - Tongxiang Technology (同享科技) with a deviation rate of 7.15% and a price increase of 8.45% [1] Detailed Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the performance of selected stocks that have recently crossed the six-month moving average: | Stock Code | Stock Name | Price Change (%) | Turnover Rate (%) | Six-Month Average (yuan) | Latest Price (yuan) | Deviation Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002387 | Visionox | 9.98 | 0.49 | 9.37 | 10.25 | 9.39 | | 688448 | Magv Technology | 11.26 | 14.44 | 38.45 | 41.61 | 8.21 | | 920167 | Tongxiang Technology | 8.45 | 11.64 | 20.11 | 21.55 | 7.15 | | 301611 | Kema Technology | 6.36 | 8.74 | 54.58 | 57.82 | 5.94 | | 300403 | Hanyu Group | 7.75 | 15.48 | 15.22 | 15.85 | 4.11 | | 300937 | Yiyigou | 3.88 | 5.21 | 28.45 | 29.45 | 3.52 | | 002200 | *ST Jiaotou | 3.94 | 1.63 | 7.65 | 7.92 | 3.49 | | 300198 | ST Nachuan | 4.62 | 2.60 | 2.41 | 2.49 | 3.28 | | 605086 | Longgao Shares | 3.48 | 2.65 | 26.19 | 27.03 | 3.21 | | 300152 | ST Xindongli | 5.18 | 4.30 | 2.56 | 2.64 | 2.99 | | 603106 | Hengyin Technology | 3.10 | 2.60 | 10.35 | 10.63 | 2.71 | | 002085 | Wanfeng Aowei | 3.18 | 2.36 | 16.77 | 17.21 | 2.65 | | 301636 | Zerun New Energy | 4.56 | 15.07 | 55.76 | 57.09 | 2.38 | | 300020 | ST Yinjian | 2.34 | 1.42 | 3.86 | 3.94 | 2.01 | | 300880 | Jianan Intelligent | 6.76 | 5.37 | 20.13 | 20.52 | 1.95 | | 300461 | Tianzhong Precision | 1.79 | 1.13 | 20.12 | 20.47 | 1.72 | | 000711 | ST Jinglan | 1.69 | 1.23 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.64 | | 920029 | Kaifa Technology | 3.44 | 3.90 | 95.65 | 97.15 | 1.57 | | 300345 | Huamin Shares | 3.42 | 8.29 | 7.74 | 7.86 | 1.56 | | 300523 | Chanan Technology | 3.00 | 0.77 | 22.96 | 23.31 | 1.52 | | 002721 | Jinyi Culture | 5.80 | 4.48 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 1.50 | | 600538 | Guofa Shares | 1.87 | 2.86 | 5.89 | 5.98 | 1.46 | | 001696 | Zongshen Power | 4.37 | 4.88 | 23.56 | 23.89 | 1.41 | | 600800 | Bohai Chemical | 1.72 | 0.80 | 4.09 | 4.15 | 1.35 | | 301209 | United Chemical | 3.74 | 1.59 | 94.06 | 95.23 | 1.25 | | 300218 | Anli Shares | 1.47 | 2.26 | 17.73 | 17.94 | 1.19 | | 002457 | Qinglong Pipe | 1.27 | 3.00 | 11.86 | 12.00 | 1.15 | | 603366 | Rising East | 1.93 | 2.03 | 9.93 | 10.04 | 1.15 | | 001914 | China Merchants Jiyu | 1.95 | 0.52 | 11.91 | 12.04 | 1.12 | | 688628 | Youlide | 1.34 | 0.33 | 34.41 | 34.79 | 1.10 | [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure with high base growth rates leading to a decline in market performance [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current challenges [2] Market Performance - In October 2025, the transaction volume of commodity residential properties in 46 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 39.1% [11][12] - The cumulative transaction volume from January to October 2025 shows a 10.9% year-on-year decrease [11] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with transaction volumes in 11 cities down by 21.3% year-on-year [35] Market Sentiment - The second-hand housing prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in October 2025, marking a total decline of 13.0% since the beginning of the year [5][35] - Inventory levels in the new housing market showed a slight decrease, with a 2.1% reduction in short-term inventory in 10 key cities [5] Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, shifting from suppression to encouragement of reasonable demand [5][29] - The government is gradually lifting restrictive measures, which may positively impact market sentiment in the long term [5] Land Market Dynamics - In October 2025, the land transfer revenue in 600 cities dropped by 27.8% year-on-year, indicating a cooling land market [5] - The average land premium rate fell to 3.3%, the lowest since 2025, reflecting cautious bidding behavior among developers [5] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales amount of 276.6 billion yuan in October 2025, a 41% year-on-year decline [29] - State-owned enterprises showed a year-on-year sales decline of 37%, while private enterprises faced a more severe drop of 52% [30] Investment Outlook - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 2.37% in October 2025, underperforming the broader market by 2.4 percentage points [5] - The report suggests holding quality real estate development companies, as the market is expected to stabilize and recover gradually [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Huafa Co., Ltd. (600325) with a target price based on the last closing price of 4.91 [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 63.98% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 51.75 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 92.31% to 102 million yuan due to declining gross margins and substantial asset impairment losses [4][5] - The company is focusing on accelerating sales and actively revitalizing idle assets, maintaining a strong sales performance within the industry [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huafa Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 51.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 102 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 92.31% [4][5] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.26%, down by 1.55 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The company recorded asset impairment losses totaling 1.436 billion yuan and credit impairment losses of 88 million yuan, leading to a total impairment of 1.524 billion yuan [5] Sales and Market Position - The company sold 2.416 million square meters in the first three quarters, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with total sales amounting to 63.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year. It ranked 11th in the sales list by CRIC, maintaining a strong position in the industry [6] Investment Strategy - The company continues to focus on core cities and regions, acquiring land in Chengdu and Hangzhou, totaling 98,900 square meters in the first three quarters of 2025. The total area under construction decreased by 35.0% year-on-year to 6.431 million square meters [7] - Huafa Co., Ltd. has successfully issued convertible bonds to raise 4.8 billion yuan, maintaining a healthy asset-liability structure with over 80% of long-term interest-bearing debt in total interest-bearing debt [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 602 million yuan, 718 million yuan, and 1.005 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for these years are projected to be 22.46X, 18.83X, and 13.44X [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The real estate sector is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for facilitating economic circulation. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized promoting high-quality development in real estate, indicating potential policy support [4][48] - There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality housing due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure, with a focus on core cities and strong land acquisition capabilities [4][48] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - In the new housing market, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 2.43 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, but a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14][18] - For the month of October, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18][19] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [14] - For October, new housing transactions totaled 8.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of October 25-31, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% [30] - For October, second-hand housing transactions totaled 7.32 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting a system of selling existing homes to mitigate delivery risks. Additionally, five departments issued a plan to support qualified commercial real estate projects in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [45] - Guangzhou has released guidelines for constructing quality housing, emphasizing green construction and energy-efficient appliances [45] - Policy adjustments in housing provident funds have been made, including increasing the maximum ratio of monthly repayments to family income from 55% to 60% in Hainan [45] Company Announcements - In Q3 2025, several companies reported their net profits, with notable figures including China Vanke at -16.07 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 98.6%) and China Merchants Shekou at 1.05 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%) [48][50] - Financing activities include a loan agreement where Shenzhen Metro Group will provide up to 22 billion yuan to China Vanke [48][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future opportunities despite current challenges [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transition from the old development model in the real estate sector to new opportunities, particularly through the "Good House" policy, which is expected to create new products, pricing strategies, and business models [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector remains a crucial pillar of the national economy, and stabilizing the sector is essential for overall economic stability [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Trends - In Q1-Q3 2025, the overall revenue of the real estate sector decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 15.4% [12][13]. - The net profit for the sector saw a significant drop of 125.1% year-on-year, with first-tier companies experiencing a 144.1% decline [13][16]. 2. Margins and Costs - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was reported at 14.9%, a slight increase from the previous year, with third-tier companies leading at 18.4% [18][19]. - The net margin was negative at -6.6%, although the decline was less severe compared to the previous year, with third-tier companies showing the best performance at -1.1% [22][23]. - The overall expense ratio increased to 11.7%, with first-tier companies maintaining the lowest ratio at 8.2% [26]. 3. Debt and Liquidity - The overall debt-to-asset ratio for the sector was 73.7%, slightly down from the previous year, with first-tier companies at 71.8% [37][38]. - The net debt ratio rose to 89.4%, indicating increased leverage across all tiers of companies [47]. - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio was reported at 0.9, reflecting a slight decline, with first-tier companies at 0.9 and second-tier at 0.6 [54]. 4. Sales and Pre-sales - Sales cash inflow for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed [58]. - The pre-sales lock-in rate fell to 0.53, indicating a continued downward trend, with second-tier companies performing better at 0.73 [61]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies under the "Good House" initiative, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land [4][5]. - It also suggests looking into undervalued commercial real estate firms such as Xincheng Holdings and China Merchants Shekou [4].