有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120002 | | | lanyang@orientsec.com ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Serbian President Vucic predicts that Iran will face military strikes within 48 hours, linking the timing to Epstein-related documents [1] - Iranian officials deny plans for military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that reports of such drills are inaccurate [1] Group 2: U.S.-Iran Relations - U.S. President Trump expresses hope for an agreement with Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif maintains confidence in reaching a nuclear deal [3][10] - Zarif indicates that Iran is working with regional partners to build trust with the U.S. for negotiations, which have shown some effectiveness [5][11] - Zarif emphasizes the importance of substance over form in negotiations, reiterating Iran's desire for the U.S. to lift long-standing sanctions and respect its rights to uranium enrichment [11] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experiences a significant downturn, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the decline due to hawkish expectations from the Fed and a strengthening dollar [12] - A large sell-off in the A-share market sees major indices drop over 2%, with significant losses in resource sectors and semiconductor stocks [12] - Silver and other precious metals face substantial selling pressure, with notable sell orders exceeding 66 billion for Silver [9] Group 4: Company Developments - Tesla announces the upcoming launch of its third-generation humanoid robot, designed to learn new skills by observing human behavior, with an expected annual production of one million units [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating a positive outlook for the antimony sector [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in various sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others across gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12].

Market Overview - On February 2, the market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices falling over 2%, and the Sci-Tech 50 index dropping over 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.46% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.83 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,700 stocks in the market declined, with 125 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed resilience, with Huangtai Liquor achieving three consecutive trading limits, and Jinhuijiu hitting two limits in three days. Water Well Liquor also reached the daily limit up [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and semiconductor sectors faced significant declines. The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly hard hit, with multiple gold stocks such as Zhaojin Gold and Sichuan Gold experiencing limit downs [3][5] - The oil and gas sector also suffered, with domestic crude oil and fuel futures contracts hitting the limit down, both dropping approximately 7%. Brent crude oil futures fell to $66 per barrel, down 4.67%, while WTI crude oil futures dropped below $62 per barrel, down 4.94% [5][6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index expanding its losses to 4% in the afternoon. The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.23%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.36% [6][7] - The precious metals sector in Hong Kong also faced significant losses, with stocks like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold dropping over 12% [7] - The three major telecom operators in China collectively weakened, with China Unicom down over 6%, China Telecom down over 5%, and China Mobile down over 2%. This was influenced by an adjustment in the value-added tax rate for telecom services from 6% to 9%, which will impact the revenue and profits of these companies [7]

Market Overview - On February 2, the market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices falling over 2%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropping over 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.46% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.83 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,700 stocks in the market declined, with 125 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed resilience, with Huangtai Liquor achieving three consecutive trading limits, and Jin Hui Liquor hitting two limits in three days. Water Well Liquor also reached the daily limit [2] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and semiconductor sectors faced significant declines. The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly hard hit, with multiple gold stocks such as Zhaojin Gold and Sichuan Gold experiencing limit downs [2] - The oil and gas sector also faced severe losses, with domestic crude oil and fuel futures contracts hitting the limit down, both dropping approximately 7%. Brent crude futures fell to $66 per barrel, down 4.67%, while WTI crude futures dropped below $62 per barrel, down 4.94% [4][5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 4% in the afternoon. The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.23%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.36% [5][6] - The precious metals sector also suffered, with significant declines in stocks like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, both dropping over 12% [6] - The three major telecom operators in China collectively weakened, with China Unicom down over 6%, China Telecom down over 5%, and China Mobile down over 2%. This was attributed to an adjustment in the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9%, which will impact their revenues and profits [6] Technology Sector - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with stocks such as Huahong Semiconductor down over 11%, BYD down over 6%, and XPeng Motors down 6.77%. Other notable declines included Bilibili down 4.9%, and major companies like Alibaba and Meituan also experiencing losses [6][7]

Market Overview - The precious metals sector experienced a significant decline of 10.18% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) closed at 54.70, down 18.96% with a trading volume of 740,500 shares [1] - Hengbang Shares (002237) closed at 18.59, down 10.02% with a trading volume of 60,500 shares [1] - Zhao Jin Gold (000506) closed at 23.10, down 10.01% with a trading volume of 10,800 shares [1] - Sichuan Gold (001337) closed at 59.56, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 3,480 shares [1] - Hunan Gold (002155) closed at 33.30, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 2,273,400 shares [1] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) closed at 33.21, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 62,600 shares [1] - Chifeng Gold (6009888) closed at 38.88, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 74,000 shares [1] - Western Gold (eoloea) closed at 40.25, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 23,500 shares [1] - Shandong Gold (600547) closed at 49.10, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 74,400 shares [1] - Shanjin International (000975) closed at 31.36, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 70,600 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.039 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 769 million yuan [1] - The following stocks had notable capital flows: - Shanjin International (000975) had a net inflow of 1.414 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net outflow of 10.571 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Sichuan Gold (001337) saw a net outflow of 10.7625 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 781.43 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Zhao Jin Gold (000506) had a net outflow of 16.9277 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.25826 million yuan [2] - Hengbang Shares (002237) experienced a net outflow of 22.7305 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 1.82554 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) had a net outflow of 87.5449 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 5.4129 million yuan [2]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 2.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 3.36% [1] - Precious metals experienced significant declines, with Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold dropping over 12%, Lingbao Gold down over 8%, and China Silver Group also down over 8% [1] Automotive Sector - Automotive stocks declined, with BYD falling nearly 7% and Xpeng Motors down over 6% [1] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators collectively weakened, with China Unicom down over 6%, China Telecom down over 5%, and China Mobile down over 2% [1] - The adjustment of the value-added tax rate for telecom services from 6% to 9% will impact the revenue and profits of these three companies [1]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant declines, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper seeing drops of 13.38%, 12.63%, and 10.16% respectively [1] - International precious metal markets continue to face severe sell-offs, with spot gold dropping below $4,450 per ounce, marking a new low since January 8, and spot silver erasing all gains for the year, falling to $71.31 per ounce [1] - Domestic commodity futures markets are also seeing widespread declines, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, nickel, tin, copper, and aluminum hitting limit downs [1] Group 2 - Short-term market evaluations of the non-ferrous sector are reassessing the balance between "trend" and "volatility" following previous rapid increases [2] - The nomination process of Waller and the clarity of his policy positions are expected to be key factors influencing commodity prices and the non-ferrous industry [2] - A strengthened "hawkish" stance could potentially reverse "weak dollar" expectations, increasing price volatility for all non-ferrous metals, while the long-term industry logic remains unchanged due to ongoing interest rate cuts and new demand dynamics [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant declines, with several companies showing notable drops in their stock prices [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) has decreased by 13.38%, trading at 38.36 HKD [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) has fallen by 12.63%, with a current price of 34.86 HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) has seen a decline of 10.16%, now priced at 42.64 HKD [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) has dropped by 9.62%, currently at 14.19 HKD [1] - Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK) has decreased by 7.22%, trading at 12.85 HKD [1]