供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 长江电力（600900） 作为全球水电龙头，长江电力掌控长江流域核心水电资产，旗下三峡、葛洲坝、溪洛渡、向家坝等电站 装机规模与发电量稳居全球第一，水电业务具备稳定、清洁、低成本的核心优势。在全国统一电力市场 建设中，公司作为跨区电力供给核心主体，将充分受益于市场化交易机制完善与绿电溢价提升，同时 AI算力需求爆发带动电力资产价值重估，公司稳定的电力供给能力与绿电属性凸显，在电力行业价值 重构中占据核心地位。此外，公司积极布局抽水蓄能与储能业务，提升调节能力，适配统一市场下的辅 助服务需求，进一步强化全产业链价值。 2. 华电新能（600930） 华电集团旗下新能源核心平台，聚焦风电、光伏等清洁能源项目开发、投资与运营，装机规模持续扩 张，绿电占比不断提升。公司在国内多个区域布局新能源电站，深度绑定"东数西算"等算力项目，提供 稳定绿电直供服务。全国统一电力市场的推进，将为公司绿电交易提供更广阔的平台与更优的溢价空 间；AI算力用电需求高增，也将带动绿电直供与源网荷储协同需求，公司作为新能源发电核心企业， 将充分受益于行业景气度提升。同时，公司积极拓展储能、虚拟电厂等业务，提升调节 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Group 1 - *ST Lifan plans to terminate its listing due to false disclosures in annual reports from 2021 to 2023, with over 500 million yuan in inflated revenue [1] - The stock will be suspended from trading starting February 24, and if delisted, it will enter a 15-day trading period under the name "XX退" [1] - Dragon Magnetic Technology plans to raise up to 760 million yuan through a private placement to expand production capacity in Vietnam and enhance AI chip inductors [2][3] Group 2 - Hanbo High-tech's subsidiary plans to acquire 70% of a special purpose company in South Korea for approximately 142.1 million USD to enter the wet electronic chemicals market [3] - Tuoshan Heavy Industry intends to acquire 51% of Xin Kaiyuan for 219 million yuan, making it a controlling subsidiary [4] - iFLYTEK has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for a private placement, pending further registration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [5] Group 3 - Blue Shield Optoelectronics' subsidiary has decided to waive its rights to purchase and subscribe for shares in a semiconductor company amid strategic considerations [6][7] - Qizhong Technology reported a fire at its subsidiary, which may reduce its revenue growth forecast for 2026 by 5-8 percentage points [8] - Huaihe Energy expects a net profit increase of 96.31% to 107.97% for 2025, with projected profits between 1.684 billion and 1.784 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Wanlang Magnetic Plastic's controlling shareholder has pledged 11.09% of the company's shares, totaling 9.48 million shares [10] - Hanma Technology plans to increase capital in its subsidiary by 575 million yuan before transferring 100% of its shares to another company for 485 million yuan [11] - Efort intends to acquire 100% of Shengpu shares, valuing the company between 1 billion and 1.2 billion yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the restructuring has led to an increase in the performance of Huaihe Energy, with a projected net profit for 2025 showing significant growth compared to previous years [1][2]. Financial Performance - Huaihe Energy expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.684 billion to 1.784 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 96.31% to 107.97%, but a slight decrease of 0.5% to 6.08% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - Following the acquisition of the power group, the company's total assets are projected to reach 47.724 billion yuan, marking a 102.96% increase from pre-restructuring levels [4]. Restructuring Details - The acquisition of 89.30% of the Huaihe Energy Power Group was completed in December 2025, resolving issues of competition within the same industry [2][3]. - The restructuring is expected to enhance the quality of assets and strengthen the main business by consolidating operations with the power group, which is also a thermal power enterprise [3]. Business Operations - The main business activities of Huaihe Energy include thermal power generation, electricity sales, railway transportation, and coal blending [1][3]. - As of September 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 3.24 million kilowatts [1][6]. Production Metrics - In the first nine months of 2025, Huaihe Energy generated 12.375 billion kWh of electricity, a decrease of 9.63% year-on-year, with a corresponding drop in grid electricity output [7]. - The average utilization hours of thermal power units were reported at 3,525.57 hours, down 375.72 hours from the previous year, primarily due to increased competition from renewable energy sources and the shutdown of the Pan San Power Plant [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Huaihe Energy's stock price increased by 5.26% to 3.60 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.32 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.40%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.8 billion CNY [1] - Huaihe Energy, established on November 29, 2000, and listed on March 28, 2003, operates in various sectors including railway transportation, coal trading, thermal power generation, and electricity sales [1] - The revenue composition of Huaihe Energy is as follows: logistics trade accounts for 68.73%, electricity for 22.26%, coal sales for 5.75%, railway transportation for 2.61%, and other services for 0.65% [1] Group 2 - Among the top circulating shareholders of Huaihe Energy, a fund under Southern Fund holds a position, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), which reduced its holdings by 20,460 shares in the third quarter, now holding 14,195,300 shares, representing 0.37% of circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) was established on September 29, 2016, with a current scale of 78.996 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 8.61% and a one-year return of 34.61% [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 1000 ETF is Cui Lei, who has been in the position for 7 years and 98 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 137.02 billion CNY and a best return of 251.88% during the tenure [3]

公司报告期归属于母公司所有者的净利润与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比增加的原因：公司于2025年 12月完成电力集团股权收购，电力集团成为公司的全资子公司。根据企业会计准则，本次公司以发行股 份及支付现金方式购买股权属同一控制下的企业合并，电力集团纳入公司2025年度的合并财务报表范 围，对公司上年同期和期初数据按同一控制下企业合并进行了追溯调整。本次合并完成后，经营业绩较 上年同期增加。 格隆汇2月10日丨淮河能源(600575.SH)公布，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 16.84亿元到17.84亿元，同比增加96.31%到107.97%。预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润6.73亿元到7.73亿元，同比减少14.59%到1.91%。 ...

证券代码：600575 证券简称：淮河能源 公告编号：临 2026-005 淮河能源（集团）股份有限公司 2025 年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 168,399 万元到 178,399 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，增加 82,619 万元到 92,619 万元，同比增加 96.31%到 107.97%；与上年同期（重述后数据）相比，减少 10,905 万元到 905 万元，同比减少 6.08%到 0.50%。 预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 67,330 万元到 77,330 万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，减少 11,505 万元到 1,505 万元，同比减少 14.59%到 1.91%；鉴于重述后数据未对上年同期归 属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润产生影响，前述变化幅度与重述 后数据比较的结果一致。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with projections indicating a rise of 8.26 billion to 9.26 billion yuan compared to the previous year's statutory disclosure, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.31% to 107.97% [1] Financial Performance Summary - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated to be between 1.684 billion and 1.784 billion yuan [1] - Compared to the restated figures, the net profit is expected to decrease by 1.09 billion to 9.05 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.08% to 0.50% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 673 million and 773 million yuan, which is a decrease of 1.15 billion to 15.05 million yuan compared to the statutory disclosure, indicating a year-on-year decline of 14.59% to 1.91% [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The performance change is attributed to the completion of the power group equity acquisition in December 2025 and a decline in coal prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].