Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for interbank funding and bond supply in the first quarter of 2026, emphasizing that concerns over long-term bond supply do not contradict the continuation of loose funding conditions, with the central bank likely maintaining low interest rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Funding Conditions - The continuation of loose funding conditions and concerns over long-term bond supply are not contradictory; the current issue is not a lack of liquidity but rather insufficient demand for long-term bonds from institutions [1]. - The central bank's willingness to support interbank funding is crucial; despite seasonal factors and government bond issuance, the central bank's ability to smooth funding fluctuations is expected to remain strong [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - Since the second half of 2024, the central bank has been iterating its monetary policy framework to enhance liquidity management, which is expected to lead to a stable and relatively loose funding environment in early 2026 [3]. - The central bank may employ various tools, such as large-scale MLF operations or adjustments in reserve requirements, to manage liquidity effectively [3]. Group 3: Deposit Rates and Market Reactions - The article predicts that the central bank's actions will lead to a decline in deposit rates, with a significant portion of fixed-term deposits maturing in the first quarter of 2026, which could further lower rates [3]. - The one-year deposit rate is expected to stabilize around 1.60-1.65%, with a downward trend anticipated as favorable factors emerge [3].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is poised for long-term growth due to recent global developments, including China's record space launches and the U.S. plans to significantly increase military spending, alongside the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers [1][7]. Group 1: China's Aerospace Achievements - In 2025, China achieved a record of 92 space launches, sending over 300 satellites into orbit, marking a qualitative leap in both launch frequency and satellite deployment [2][8]. - Significant milestones include the Shenzhou 20 mission with a crew duration record of 204 days, the Shenzhou 21's rapid docking record of 3.5 hours, and the successful execution of a 16-day emergency launch protocol [2][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, China plans to initiate various tests for its manned lunar landing project and the Chang'e 7 mission to search for water ice on the Moon [2][8]. Group 2: Global Military Dynamics - The U.S. military budget is proposed to increase from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027, aimed at creating a "dream army" to address current global threats [3][9]. - The Pentagon plans to significantly boost the production of the "Patriot" missile system, increasing the annual output of the PAC-3 MSE missiles from approximately 600 to 2000 units [3][9]. - The U.S. Air Force has selected Northrop Grumman's new autonomous drone, "Reaper," as a leading candidate for collaborative combat aircraft projects [3][9]. Group 3: Military Sector Performance - The military sector showed strong performance in the week of January 5-9, 2026, with the defense and military index rising by 14.56%, outperforming the broader market by 10.74 percentage points [5][11]. - Notable stock performances include Galaxy Electronics (up 60.96%), Nanjing Panda (up 49.10%), and Zhenlei Technology (up 48.18%) [5][11]. - A significant breakthrough in domestic military technology was achieved with the successful first flight of the LQ-150 drone, which features a low-cost, multi-purpose flight control system [5][11]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The military sector is expected to accelerate its development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on enhancing capabilities in aerospace and satellite internet [6][12]. - Key investment areas include assembly sectors like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, component sectors like AVIC Optoelectronics, subsystem sectors like Aero Engine Corporation of China, and materials processing sectors like AVIC High-Tech [6][12].

Core Insights - The IPO market is experiencing significant changes in underwriting and advisory fee structures due to new regulations and market conditions, with a notable shift from the previously dominant tiered fee model to a mixed fee model that includes fixed rates and minimum or maximum fee clauses [4][5] Fee Structures - The tiered fee model, which was prevalent in 2023 with 38% of cases, has drastically decreased to 6% by 2025, with most remaining cases adopting a decreasing fee percentage [3][4] - The traditional model of "actual fundraising amount × fixed rate" is now used by 33% of IPOs in 2025, with underwriting fees typically ranging from 5% to 9% [4] - A new model combining fixed rates with limit conditions has gained traction, with 49% of IPOs in 2025 utilizing this approach, up from 25% in 2023, primarily due to changing fundraising expectations [5] - The "one-price" fee model has been adopted by 12% of IPOs in 2025, focusing on direct pricing for online offerings [5] Market Trends - The average underwriting fee for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1.22 billion yuan in 2025, a significant increase from the previous average of 957.98 million yuan [7] - Conversely, the average underwriting fees for the main board and the ChiNext board have decreased, with the main board averaging 65.31 million yuan and the ChiNext board at 46.58 million yuan, reflecting a decline of over 30% for the ChiNext board compared to previous years [7][8] - The Beijing Stock Exchange has seen a notable increase in IPO fees, with an average of 20.80 million yuan in 2025, up 43% from the previous average of 14.56 million yuan [8] Market Concentration - The IPO underwriting market continues to exhibit a "head effect," with a small number of securities firms capturing the majority of market share, as only 13 firms generated over 100 million yuan in IPO revenue in the past year [9] - CITIC Securities leads the market with nearly 1.1 billion yuan in underwriting fees, followed by CITIC Construction Investment and Guotai Junan, indicating a concentration of high-quality projects among top firms [9]

Core Insights - The A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets have shown signs of recovery in 2025, leading to discussions about a potential "IPO boom" [1] - The last significant IPO year for both markets was in 2021, marking a peak in IPO numbers and fundraising [2] A-share Market Summary - In 2025, the number of new A-share listings increased to 116, with total fundraising reaching 131.8 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year [3] - The average fundraising amount per IPO rose significantly to 11.36 million yuan, with average underwriting fees for brokers increasing to 0.58 million yuan [7] - The focus has shifted from quantity to quality, with a notable increase in the "value" of individual projects [7] - The largest IPOs in recent years have transitioned from traditional sectors to technology-driven companies, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy [11] - Leading brokers like CICC and CITIC Securities have maintained their competitive edge, with CICC involved in three of the largest IPOs in the past five years [12][13] Broker Competition in A-share Market - The competition among brokers has evolved, with CITIC Securities and CICC dominating the top spots in underwriting [13][14] - In 2025, the merger of Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan created a new leader in underwriting volume, while the competition in the lower tiers has intensified [14] - CITIC Securities has consistently led in underwriting revenue, with significant contributions from high-quality projects [15][16] Hong Kong Market Summary - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a "V-shaped" recovery, with total fundraising in 2025 exceeding 285.8 billion HKD, reclaiming the top position globally [20] - The average fundraising amount per IPO surged to 24.43 million HKD in 2025, driven by large projects from leading companies [20][22] - The narrative of the Hong Kong IPO market has shifted from internet-driven stories to technology and manufacturing innovations [22] Broker Competition in Hong Kong Market - Foreign investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs continue to hold key positions in large IPO projects, while Chinese brokers are increasing their participation [23][24] - The rise of Chinese brokers, particularly in joint underwriting roles, reflects their growing influence in the Hong Kong market [24][25] - Futu Securities has consistently led in the number of IPOs underwritten, while traditional bank-affiliated brokers are also making significant contributions [25][28] Future Outlook - The consensus indicates a more active IPO market in 2026, but challenges related to supply and market absorption capacity are anticipated [29] - The ability of brokers to price assets and manage project depth will be crucial for success in the upcoming years [29]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by the closure of over 180 offline branches and the rapid rise of internet subsidiaries, indicating a trend towards digitalization and smart transformation in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The establishment of internet subsidiaries is becoming a new strategy for securities firms to capture online market share and expand customer bases, driven by favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [2][6]. - By 2025, the total number of new investor accounts in the capital market is expected to reach 30.0571 million, providing ample opportunities for securities firms to enhance their internet business [2]. - Major firms like China Galaxy Securities and Dongwu Securities are actively setting up internet subsidiaries, reflecting a broader trend of digital transformation in the industry [2][3]. Group 2: Differences Between Internet Subsidiaries and Traditional Branches - Internet subsidiaries differ from traditional branches in strategic focus, targeting a broader customer base through standardized and centralized operations, while traditional branches primarily serve high-net-worth and corporate clients [3]. - The operational logic of internet subsidiaries is data and algorithm-driven, contrasting with the reliance on personal experience and social networks in traditional branches [3][4]. - Internet subsidiaries operate as independent units with unified rights, responsibilities, and benefits, allowing for quicker decision-making and a full-cycle approach to customer acquisition and revenue generation [3][4]. Group 3: Functional Roles of Internet Subsidiaries - The core functions of internet subsidiaries include conducting targeted marketing and lead generation on external platforms, managing daily operations of various online platforms, providing refined customer service, and acting as a "smart brain" for data monitoring and AI application across all business processes [4][5]. - Internet subsidiaries aim to address traditional pain points in the securities industry, such as inadequate service for long-tail customers and low operational efficiency due to dispersed operations [5][6]. Group 4: Performance and Effectiveness - The effectiveness of internet subsidiaries is being validated through various practices, with firms like Guotai Junan and Dongwu Securities reporting significant growth in customer acquisition and asset management [6][7]. - Guotai Junan's internet subsidiary has doubled its customer acquisition on new media platforms in 2025 compared to 2024, while Dongwu Securities has successfully attracted nearly 3 million followers and accumulated 150 million yuan in assets [6][7]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the progress, internet subsidiaries face challenges such as internal collaboration barriers and the need for alignment with headquarters on operational strategies [8][9]. - Not all securities firms are suited to establish internet subsidiaries, as some leading firms have already integrated internet capabilities into their operations, while smaller firms may prefer to focus resources on key business areas [8][9]. - The future of internet business in the securities industry will depend on advancements in technology, business models, and organizational structures, with a focus on creating long-term customer engagement and breaking down traditional departmental barriers [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Weigao Co., Ltd. (01066) and sets a target price of HKD 7.84, as Weigao Blood Products plans to acquire 100% of Weigao Purui's shares, positioning itself as the controlling shareholder and flagship platform for medical devices within the group [2][3] - The acquisition is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, with Weigao Blood Products currently holding 23.53% of Weigao Co. and 94.07% of Weigao Purui prior to the transaction [3] - The assessed value of Weigao Purui's 100% equity is estimated at CNY 8.511 billion, with a share issuance price of CNY 31.29 per share, leading to the issuance of 272 million shares, which will constitute 39.43% of the total post-issuance share capital [3] Group 2 - The upstream biopharmaceutical market is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of CNY 21.2 billion in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% expected from 2024 to 2030, indicating significant opportunities for domestic substitution [4] - Weigao Blood Products has established a product line for upstream biopharmaceutical filtration, while Weigao Purui possesses extensive customer resources in the biopharmaceutical sector, suggesting potential synergies post-acquisition [4] - Following the transaction, Weigao Co. will hold 52.10% of Weigao Blood Products, becoming its controlling shareholder and further clarifying its position as the flagship platform for medical devices under the Weigao brand [5]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持威高股份(01066)"增持"评级，给予目标价7.84港 元，威高血净拟发行股份收购威高普瑞全部股权，通过此次整合，威高股份将成为威高血净的控股股 东，进一步明确其作为集团旗下医疗器械旗舰平台的定位。双方有望在生物制药上游领域形成协同，把 握国产替代机遇，拓展增长空间，交易预计在2026年中后期完成。 根据公司投资者演示材料，2024下半年以来随着创新药发展迅速、BD交易火热，生物制药上游领域需 求快速修复，2024年中国市场规模212亿元，2024-2030E复合增速有望达到11.5%。竞争格局来看，国产 化率总体偏低，国产替代机会大。目前威高血净已建立起了生物制药上游过滤产品线，而威高普瑞在生 物制药拥有广泛的客户资源，交易后双方有望进一步发挥协同作用，充分把握生物制药上游市场机遇， 拓展未来增长空间。 公司医疗器械旗舰平台定位进一步明确 交易后，公司将持有威高血净52.10%股权，成为其控股股东并合并财务报表。本次交易将进一步整合 并优化威高品牌下的核心医疗资产，公司将成为威高集团旗下医疗器械的旗舰型平台。 风险提示 新业务拓展不及预期，业绩承诺未能完成的 ...

Key Points - The total bond market in mainland China reached 196.18 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of 20.30 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [2] - The issuance of various bonds in 2025 amounted to 89.0 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11% [2] - Interest-bearing bonds issuance reached 33.0 trillion yuan, up 18% from the previous year, with government bonds increasing by 28% and local government bonds by 5% [2][4] - Credit bonds issuance was 22.2 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year [2][4] - Interbank certificates of deposit totaled 33.8 trillion yuan, marking a 7% growth [2][4] Bond Issuance Breakdown - Interest-bearing bonds: 3,534 issues, 329,829.6 billion yuan, 18% growth [4] - Government bonds: 206 issues, 160,140.2 billion yuan, 28% growth [4] - Local government bonds: 2,449 issues, 102,901.0 billion yuan, 5% growth [4] - Policy bank bonds: 879 issues, 66,788.4 billion yuan, 17% growth [4] - Credit bonds: 24,003 issues, 222,246.7 billion yuan, 8% growth [4] - Financial bonds: 1,499 issues, 56,780.6 billion yuan, 25% growth [4] - Corporate bonds: 5,871 issues, 44,593.6 billion yuan, 12% growth [5] Market Trends - The overall issuance cost in the bond market showed a downward trend in 2025, with the index reaching a high of 42.68 in mid-March and a low of 33.01 in mid-July [7] - The top three banks in bond underwriting for 2025 were China Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Construction Bank, with underwriting amounts of 16,765.2 billion yuan, 16,479.0 billion yuan, and 15,020.5 billion yuan respectively [10][11] Underwriting Rankings - The top three securities firms in bond underwriting (excluding local government bonds) were CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Jinpu, with underwriting amounts of 16,136.2 billion yuan, 13,613.4 billion yuan, and 12,419.6 billion yuan respectively [19][20] - For local government bonds, the top three securities firms were CITIC Securities, CITIC Jinpu, and Guotai Junan, with underwriting amounts of 22,491.6 billion yuan, 17,333.3 billion yuan, and 16,426.2 billion yuan respectively [26]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has launched the Rubin AI platform and inference context memory storage platform at CES 2026, driving the demand for storage capacity growth [1][5] - Changxin Technology has disclosed its prospectus for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, marking a new development phase for China's storage industry [1][4] Group 1: NVIDIA's Innovations - The introduction of NVIDIA's inference context memory storage platform significantly enhances long-context inference performance, achieving a fivefold increase in tokens per second, total cost of ownership (TCO) performance, and energy efficiency [2][6] - The Rubin AI platform integrates six chips and is now in full production, including components such as Rubin GPU, Vera CPU, NVLink 6, Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, ConnectX-9 SuperNIC, and BlueField-4 DPU [1][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - TrendForce predicts a significant increase in storage contract prices, with general DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 55%-60% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, and NAND prices expected to increase by 33%-38% [3][7] - The global server market is anticipated to reach a growth peak in 2026, driving demand for Enterprise SSDs, which are expected to become the largest application for NAND Flash [3][7] Group 3: Changxin Technology's Development - Changxin Technology is the largest and most advanced DRAM R&D and manufacturing enterprise in China, having completed mass production from the first to the fourth generation of process technology platforms [4][8] - The company operates three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing, with significant capital expenditures on fixed and long-term assets from 2022 to mid-2025, totaling 1.744 billion yuan [4][8] - The IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan, which is expected to further expand capital expenditures if successful [4][8]

为进一步优化网点布局，国泰海通证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）决定撤销三亚月川中路证券营 业部，根据新修订的《中华人民共和国证券法》和《关于取消或调整证券公司部分行政审批项目等事项 的公告》（证监会公告（2020）018）相关要求，公司将妥善处理三亚月川中路证券营业部客户资产， 结清三亚月川中路证券营业部证券业务并终止营业活动，办理工商注销等相关手续，并向上述营业部所 在地中国证监会派出机构备案。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年1月8日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 ...