业 研 究 行 行业月报 关注马年春晚人形机器人相关催化 ——机械设备行业 2 月投资策略展望 | | | 机械设备 投资要点： 行情回顾 宁前羽 ningqy@bhzq.com 022-23839174 重点品种推荐 | 中联重科 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 恒立液压 | 增持 | | 捷昌驱动 | 增持 | | 豪迈科技 | 增持 | 近半年行业指数走势图 2026 年 1 月 4 日-2026 年 2 月 3 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.65%，申万机械 设备行业上涨 8.42%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 7.77 个百分点，在申万所有一级行 业中位于第 7 位。 截至 2026 年 2 月 3 日，申万机械设备行业市盈率（PE，TTM）为 51.18 倍， 相对于沪深 300 的估值溢价率为 265.16%。 个股方面，涨幅居前的有锋龙股份（221.77%）、田中精机（107.49%）、宇 晶股份（104.82%）、中控技术（86.46%）、罗博特科（82.08%），其中锋 龙股份受控制权变更事件影响涨幅居前；跌幅居前的有思林杰（-28.48%）、 *ST 海华（-27.74%）、 ...

Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector increased by 1.95% on February 4, with Hengli Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the engineering machinery sector showed significant price increases, with Hengli Hydraulic rising by 4.53% to a closing price of 119.87 [1] Group 2 - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 384 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 185 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major stocks varied, with Huadong Heavy Machinery seeing a trading volume of 468,700 shares and a closing price of 7.00, up 4.17% [2] - The overall market sentiment reflected mixed movements, with some stocks like Weiman Sealing and Hailun Zhe showing declines of 2.79% and 2.03% respectively [2] Group 3 - Major stocks such as Huadong Heavy Machinery and Tongli Co. experienced differing net inflows from institutional and retail investors, indicating varied investor sentiment [3] - The net inflow for Tongli Co. was 22.20 million yuan from retail investors, while it faced a net outflow of 32.39 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The data indicates a complex interaction between institutional and retail investors within the engineering machinery sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global construction machinery industry is entering an upward demand cycle, supported by various factors, with a notable shift from earthmoving to both earthmoving and non-earthmoving equipment in 2023 [1][2] - Monthly data indicates that exports of excavators from China and Japan to regions such as North America, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia have shown high growth in December [1] Key Financial Insights - Leading companies in the sector reported significant revenue growth in Q4 2025: - North America: +23% - EAME (Europe, Africa, and the Middle East): +18% - Asia-Pacific: -7% - Latin America: +6% [1] - Caterpillar's construction machinery revenue growth in Q3 2025 was as follows: - North America: +8% - EAME: +6% - Asia-Pacific: +3% - Latin America: -1% - The construction machinery sector in North America and EAME is accelerating, while Latin America has shown signs of recovery [1] Regional Demand Drivers - Southeast Asia's demand is driven by mining and urbanization, while Latin America's demand is supported by real estate and mining sectors. The Middle East and North Africa are focusing on infrastructure and mining [2] - Domestic demand in China is expected to benefit from the renewal cycle, second-hand equipment exports, and large infrastructure projects, with earthmoving demand leading the way [2] Future Projections - The domestic construction machinery market is projected to grow by over 10% in 2026, with export growth expected to exceed 15% [2] - The domestic market is anticipated to be a stable growth driver, while exports will contribute significantly to profit elasticity [2] Investment Recommendations - Long-term sector allocation is advised, with specific recommendations for companies such as XCMG, Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and LiuGong [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hengli Hydraulic has shown significant trading activity and financial performance, with a notable increase in stock price and trading volume on February 3rd [1] - On February 3rd, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price increased by 6.72%, with a trading volume of 1.838 billion yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 58.254 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 124 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy-in of -65.9143 million yuan [1] - As of February 3rd, the total balance of margin trading for Hengli Hydraulic was 624 million yuan, with a financing balance of 620 million yuan, accounting for 0.40% of the circulating market value, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders of Hengli Hydraulic was 36,900, a decrease of 15.76% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 18.70% to 36,379 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Hydraulic achieved an operating income of 7.790 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.31%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.087 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.49% [2] - Hengli Hydraulic has distributed a total of 6.177 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.111 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hengli Hydraulic, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest shareholder, holding 118 million shares, an increase of 15.1936 million shares from the previous period [3] - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF ranked as the sixth largest circulating shareholder with 9.1186 million shares, a decrease of 412,000 shares from the previous period. E Fund CSI 300 ETF and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF also saw reductions in their holdings [3]

Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector experienced a significant increase of 6.35% on February 3, with construction machinery leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the engineering machinery sector showed notable price increases, with Construction Machinery rising by 9.95% to a closing price of 4.53 [1] Group 2 - The main capital inflow in the engineering machinery sector was 1.283 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 817 million yuan [2] - Major stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion received significant net inflows from institutional investors, with Sany Heavy Industry attracting 675 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume for the engineering machinery sector was substantial, with individual stocks like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry contributing significantly to the total turnover [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rally in the engineering machinery sector on February 3, with multiple stocks experiencing substantial gains, indicating a positive trend in this industry [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jiangshun Technology (江顺科技) reached the daily limit with a 10% increase, bringing its total market value to 66.33 billion [2]. - Construction Machinery (建设机械) and Sikan Technology (思看科技) both rose by over 8%, with Sikan Technology's market value at 137 billion [2]. - Huadian Technology (华电科工) increased by over 7%, with a market value of 134 billion [2]. - Anhui Heli (安徽合力) and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (中联重科) both saw gains exceeding 6%, with market values of 198 billion and 797 billion respectively [2]. - Sany Heavy Industry (三一重工) rose by 6.03%, with a market value of 2085 billion [2]. - Other notable performers included Shantui (山推股份) and Hengli Hydraulic (恒立液压), both increasing by over 5% [2]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Jiangshun Technology has a year-to-date increase of 42.17% [2]. - Sikan Technology shows a remarkable year-to-date increase of 65.88% [2]. - Huadian Technology has a year-to-date increase of 46.56% [2]. - Anhui Heli's year-to-date increase stands at 6.41% [2]. - Zoomlion Heavy Industry has a year-to-date increase of 9.40% [2]. - Sany Heavy Industry's year-to-date increase is 7.29% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a collective surge in engineering machinery stocks, with several companies experiencing significant price increases, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jiangshun Technology reached the daily limit with a 10% increase, marking a year-to-date rise of 42.17% [2]. - Construction Machinery and Sika Technology both rose by over 8%, with Sika Technology showing a year-to-date increase of 65.88% [2]. - Huadian Engineering increased by over 7%, with a year-to-date rise of 46.56% [2]. - Anhui Heli and Zoomlion both saw increases of over 6%, with Anhui Heli's year-to-date rise at 6.41% and Zoomlion at 9.40% [2]. - Sany Heavy Industry rose by 6.03%, with a year-to-date increase of 7.29% [2]. - Other notable performers included Shantui, Hengli Hydraulic, and Fushite, all rising over 5% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Capitalization - Jiangshun Technology has a total market capitalization of 66.33 billion [2]. - Construction Machinery's market cap stands at 56.44 billion [2]. - Sika Technology has a market cap of 137 billion [2]. - Huadian Engineering's market cap is 134 billion [2]. - Anhui Heli has a market cap of 198 billion, while Zoomlion's is 797 billion [2]. - Sany Heavy Industry has a market cap of 208.5 billion [2]. - Shantui's market cap is 186 billion, and Hengli Hydraulic's is 152.7 billion [2]. - Fushite has a market cap of 47.63 billion, while Tietuo Machinery's is 2.618 billion [2]. - Xugong Machinery has a market cap of 130.5 billion [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hengli Hydraulic experienced a stock price increase of 5.17%, reaching 113.02 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 826 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.56%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 151.54 billion CNY [1] - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, and listed on October 28, 2011, is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders. The revenue composition is as follows: hydraulic cylinders 50.70%, hydraulic pumps and valves 38.16%, parts and castings 7.28%, hydraulic systems 3.16%, and others 0.69% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 412,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 9.1186 million shares, which is 0.68% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 50.70 million CNY [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) was established on May 4, 2012, with a current scale of 422.26 billion CNY. It has experienced a loss of 0.43% this year, ranking 4554 out of 5562 in its category, while achieving a return of 23.77% over the past year, ranking 2804 out of 4285 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) is Liu Jun, who has a cumulative tenure of 16 years and 249 days. The total asset scale under his management is 550.93 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 225.42% and the worst being -45.64% [3] Group 4 - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB Quality Selected Mixed A (009990) holds 135,700 shares of Hengli Hydraulic, accounting for 1.92% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth-largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is about 754,500 CNY [4] - The Huatai-PB Quality Selected Mixed A (009990) was established on August 28, 2020, with a current scale of 62.3 million CNY. It has achieved a return of 7.88% this year, ranking 1062 out of 8874, and a return of 27.68% over the past year, ranking 3978 out of 8124 [4] Group 5 - The fund manager of Huatai-PB Quality Selected Mixed A (009990) is Shen Xuefeng, who has a cumulative tenure of 19 years and 233 days. The total asset scale under his management is 2.201 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 157.14% and the worst being -19.55% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][10]. Core Insights - Meta's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly double that of the previous year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising business [17]. - Figure's Helix02 humanoid robot has achieved significant breakthroughs in large models and neural networks, enhancing its applicability in household scenarios [3][18]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing intensified competition for orbital resources, with SpaceX applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites, which may accelerate advancements in space traffic management technology [2]. Summary by Sections Key Events - Meta's capital expenditure forecast for 2026 is between $115 billion and $135 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations [17]. - Figure has launched the Helix02 humanoid robot, which integrates long-range fine manipulation and motion control through a novel three-layer architecture [18]. - SpaceX is seeking approval to deploy a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites, enhancing its computational capabilities for advanced AI [2]. Commercial Aerospace Insights - The limited capacity of near-Earth orbit satellites will intensify competition for orbital resources, leading to a "first-come, first-served" effect [2]. - Long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace are promising, particularly in the rocket segment, with a focus on key players like SpaceX and domestic companies such as Landspace and CASIC [2]. Humanoid Robotics Insights - The advancements in Figure's Helix02 are expected to unlock new applications in domestic environments as the versatility of humanoid robots increases [3]. - Investment opportunities in humanoid robotics should focus on companies with strong supply chains and market positioning, such as Hengli Hydraulic and Wison Group [3][8]. AI Infrastructure Insights - Meta's capital expenditure forecast indicates a robust outlook for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling sectors [4]. - Key investment areas include the gas turbine supply chain and high-value segments in liquid cooling systems [4][8]. Company Profit Forecasts - Several companies are rated "Outperform," including: - Green Harmony (688017.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 342 [10]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with an EPS of 2.06 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 36 [10]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with an EPS of 1.87 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 58 [10].

Market Overview - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 2.26% on February 2, with Zhigao Machinery leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhigao Machinery (code: 920101) saw a significant drop of 9.01%, closing at 42.33 with a trading volume of 31,200 shares and a transaction value of 136 million [2] - Other notable declines included Fushite (code: 301446) down 7.31% and Tietuo Machinery (code: 920706) down 7.08% [2] - Conversely, Construction Machinery (code: 600984) increased by 3.52%, closing at 4.12 with a transaction value of 275 million [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 261 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 68.44 million [2] - Notably, speculative funds had a net inflow of 329 million [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Zhongji United (code: 605305) had a net outflow of 33.05 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 17.02 million [3] - Iron Construction Machinery (code: 688425) reported a net inflow of 12.55 million from institutional investors and 21.61 million from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Longling Hydraulic (code: 605389) and Tuoshan Heavy Industry (code: 001226) also showed varying net inflows and outflows across different investor categories [3]