Market Overview - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 0.93% on January 22, with Hengli Hydraulic leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the engineering machinery sector included: - Tietuo Machinery (code: 920706) with a closing price of 31.90, up 6.83% and a trading volume of 85,600 shares, totaling 264 million yuan [1] - Shaoyang Hydraulic (code: 301079) closed at 46.90, up 4.25% with a trading volume of 118,700 shares, totaling 553 million yuan [1] - Tuoshan Heavy Industry (code: 001226) closed at 51.59, up 2.71% with a trading volume of 20,600 shares, totaling 107 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net inflow of 177 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 263 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant fund flows included: - Shaoyang Hydraulic with a net inflow of 69.48 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Hengli Hydraulic with a net inflow of 52.03 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tietuo Machinery with a net inflow of 26.28 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators continued to grow in December 2025, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories. The total excavator sales (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in the demand for construction machinery driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and the replacement cycle of machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4][5]. - The export of excavators also showed strong growth, with December 2025 exports reaching 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, and total export value for the year at $64.2 billion, up 27.2% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, reflecting a 19.2% and 10.9% year-on-year growth respectively. For the entire year, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, up 17.0%, and domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also saw significant growth, with loader sales increasing by 30.0% and motor grader sales by 14.0% in December 2025 [14]. Export Performance - The report notes that excavator exports in December 2025 reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [6][14]. - The total export value of construction machinery for December 2025 was $64.2 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the annual total at $601.7 billion, up 13.8% [6]. Future Demand Drivers - The report emphasizes that active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained demand for construction machinery in the medium term [5]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [9][10]. Electric and Intelligent Machinery Trends - Electric loader sales surged by 218.7% in December 2025, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the forklift market, driven by advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales of unmanned forklifts in 2025 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10].

Summary of China Industrials 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Core Themes**: AI technology diffusion, industrial upgrades, and globalization are central to the industrial sector's recovery in 2026. The government is focused on enhancing productivity through equipment upgrades, particularly in high-end equipment [1][4]. Key Insights - **Industrial Cycle**: The industrial cycle is characterized by strong global demand for capital goods, driven by AI technology applications and supply chain security concerns. China's trend of localizing high-end equipment remains strong, with specific sectors like data centers, electronics, and robotics expected to show growth, while processing markets may experience muted demand [3][10]. - **AI Applications**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of significant capital expenditure on physical AI, which will benefit automation and robotics companies. The government is supporting this through initiatives aimed at increasing the deployment of AI-powered robotics [4][11][12]. - **Localization and Supply Chain**: The localization rates for automation and industrial robots are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 60-70% by 2030. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in automation and precision components [21][22][23]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Equipment exports from China have grown significantly, outpacing overall export growth. Companies are motivated to expand into international markets to capture larger total addressable markets (TAM) and improve margins [24][25]. - **Margin Expansion**: The overall net margin for China's industrials is expected to increase from approximately 13.0% in 2025 to around 14.6% in 2027, driven by overseas growth and advancements in AI technology [26][27]. Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report highlights several stocks that are expected to benefit from cyclical strength and structural tailwinds, including: - **Geekplus (2590.HK)**: OW - **Sany Heavy (600031.SS)**: OW - **Leaderdrive (688017.SS)**: OW - **Han's Laser (002008.SZ)**: OW - **Inovance (300124.SZ)**: OW - **Hengli (601100.SS)**: OW - **Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ)**: OW - **Envicool (002837.SZ)**: OW - **Underweight Stocks**: Stocks such as **CSCEC (601668.SS)**, **CRRC-H (1766.HK)**, and **Maxwell (300751.SZ)** are rated as underweight due to various market challenges [5][8][46]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape is influencing supply chain security, which is a critical factor for capital goods demand globally [3]. - **Investment in AI**: The anticipated investment in AI infrastructure is expected to redefine smart manufacturing and create new opportunities within the industrial sector [10][11]. - **Sector Performance**: The report indicates that most industrial stocks are trading at or above their historical five-year average P/E ratios, reflecting a positive outlook for continuous upgrades and AI-related demand [26][38]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected recovery and growth opportunities within the China Industrials sector for 2026, highlighting key themes, market dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Humanoid Robotics - **Companies Mentioned**: - Veichi Electric (688698.SS) - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) - Leader Drive (688017.SS) - Rongtai Electric (603119.SS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Veichi Electric's Confidence**: Management expressed greater confidence in the production ramp of a leading US humanoid robot maker compared to Chinese clients, citing rigorous product development progress [1] 2. **Production Capacity Projections**: The US client's capacity requirement is projected to increase tenfold in 2027, from 1,000 units per week in 2026 to 10,000 units per week [1][3] 3. **Joint Venture in Thailand**: Veichi announced a joint venture with Rongtai Electric in Thailand to meet the US client's requirement for components produced outside of China [3] 4. **Micro Motor Requirements**: The latest version of the US humanoid robot requires 44 micro motors for dexterous hands, with a configuration of 22 degrees of freedom (DoF) per hand [3] 5. **Capacity Readiness Timeline**: The US client has requested Veichi to prepare its capacity by the first half of 2026, aligning with industry expectations [3] Additional Important Information 1. **Investment Preferences**: The report suggests a preference for component makers like Hengli Hydraulic and Leader Drive, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in the US humanoid robotics market [1] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - Target price for Hengli Hydraulic is set at Rmb135.0 based on a P/E ratio of 52x for 2026E [6] - Target price for Leader Drive is Rmb233, reflecting a P/E of 233x for 2026E [8] 3. **Risks Identified**: - For Hengli Hydraulic: Risks include weaker demand for components and lower profitability due to production scale issues [7] - For Leader Drive: Risks include slower growth in the automation market and higher raw material costs [9] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the developments in the humanoid robotics industry and the strategic positioning of the companies involved.

Summary of Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengli Hydraulic - **Industry**: Hydraulic components and machinery, including humanoid robots and aerospace systems Key Points Growth Drivers - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to accelerate to **20%-30% YoY** in 2026, up from mid-teens in 2025, driven by strong demand for excavator components and favorable product mix changes [1][1] - **New Business Contributions**: Anticipated revenue contributions from: - Aerospace - Brain-computer interface - Humanoid robots - **Revenue Contribution Order**: Aerospace > Brain-computer interface > Humanoid robot [1][1] Financial Guidance - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to exceed **Rmb3.0 billion**, with at least **30% YoY** growth. Management anticipates a **~Rmb200 million** FX loss due to Rmb appreciation, but expects bottom-line growth to outpace top-line growth due to GPM expansion [1][1] - **2026 Product Revenue Growth**: - Excavator components: **40% YoY** - Pumps and valves: **~20% YoY** - Non-excavator components: **20%-30% YoY**, with pumps and valves potentially exceeding **30%** and cylinders at **10%** [1][1] Humanoid Robot Business - **Mexico Plant**: Set to be ready by March or April 2026, with production starting in **3Q26**. Expected revenue from humanoid robots to exceed **Rmb100 million** in 2026 [2][2] Aerospace Business - **Current Operations**: Supplies hydraulic systems for launch pads and rockets, with an average selling price (ASP) of **~Rmb15 million**. GPM for this business is over **50%** [3][3] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to increase from less than **Rmb50 million** in 2025 to more than **Rmb100 million** in 2026 [3][3] Brain-Computer Interface - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to reach **Rmb100 million** in 2026, based on an ASP of **Rmb10,000** and **10,000 shipments** [6][6] Agricultural Machinery - **New Orders**: Secured orders from a global leader, increasing revenue by **Rmb500 million-600 million** in 2026. The total addressable market (TAM) for global mid-to-high-end agricultural machinery components is estimated to exceed **Rmb20 billion** [7][7] Ball Screw and Linear Guide - **Revenue Performance**: Combined revenue was **~Rmb100 million** in 2025, lower than expected. Management believes revenue could reach **Rmb300 million-500 million** in 2026, with recent monthly shipments at **Rmb15 million** [8][8] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Weaker demand for excavator and non-excavator components - Profitability issues at the ball screw and Mexico plants - Lower-than-expected GPM due to product mix changes [13][13] Valuation - **Target Price**: Set at **Rmb135.00**, based on a **52x 2026E P/E**, which aligns with its average P/E since 2021 plus **2.0x SD** [12][12] Market Overview - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately **Rmb162.4 billion** (US$23.33 billion) [4][4] - **Expected Total Return**: **12.1%**, including a **0.7% dividend yield** [4][4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% on January 21, with 18 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 2.79% and 2.62% respectively [1] - The mechanical equipment sector ranked third in terms of daily gains [1] - The banking and coal sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.58% and 1.57% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 11.983 billion yuan, with 14 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The electronics sector had the highest net capital inflow, amounting to 16.369 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net inflow of 7.289 billion yuan [1] Mechanical Equipment Sector Performance - The mechanical equipment sector increased by 1.50% with a net capital inflow of 2.1 billion yuan, comprising 531 stocks, of which 405 rose and 112 fell [2] - Among the stocks in this sector, 247 experienced net capital inflows, with 14 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflows were: - Jieli Rigging: 555.9 million yuan, up 10.03% - Hengli Hydraulic: 386.2 million yuan, up 5.43% - Yingweik: 285.0 million yuan, up 3.18% [2] Mechanical Equipment Sector Capital Outflow - The mechanical equipment sector also had stocks with significant capital outflows, with 6 stocks experiencing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflows were: - Liou Shares: -242.9 million yuan, down 10.00% - Aerospace Power: -206.6 million yuan, down 9.68% - Raycus Laser: -183.4 million yuan, down 2.57% [3]

证券之星消息，1月21日工程机械板块较上一交易日上涨1.21%，海伦哲领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4116.94，上涨0.08%。深证成指报收于14255.12，上涨0.7%。工程机械板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300201 | 海伦哲 | 8.10 | 8.29% | 78.81万 | | 6.20亿 | | 601100 | 恒立液压 | 121.12 | 5.43% | 20.85万 | | 24.76亿 | | 001226 | 拓山重工 | 50.23 | 5.08% | 2.92万 | | 1.45亿 | | 603280 | 南方路机 | 42.49 | 4.63% | 6.63万 | | 2.79亿 | | 301279 | 金直科技 | 34.74 | 4.58% | 2.77万 | | 9477.65万 | | 603638 | 艾迪精密 | 22.48 | 2.93% | 20.64万 | | 4.61亿 | | 60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an expected investment of over RMB 2 trillion, will significantly boost the demand for high - end and large - scale construction machinery, serving as a key investment catalyst for the construction machinery industry [1][5][7] - The 14th Five - Year Plan sets the tone for the industry, promoting original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be gradually released, benefiting cyclical sectors such as construction machinery [1][12] - China's construction machinery export data has been growing rapidly. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, and exports are expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030. Domestic companies' overseas revenue has increased significantly [1][17][22] - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index allows for one - click allocation of core construction machinery assets. It has high long - term returns, high volatility, and significant event - driven characteristics. The performance of its constituent stocks is expected to continue to improve [1][34][56] - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error [1][68] Summary by Directory 1. The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion 1.1 The Yaxia Hydropower Project Starts, and Trillion - Dollar Investment Creates a Century - Long Project - The Yaxia Hydropower Project officially started in 2025. Its construction plan can be traced back to 2007, and it entered the implementation phase in 2024 [5] - Compared with the Three Gorges Project, the Yaxia Hydropower Project may have a dynamic investment of over RMB 2 trillion, and most of the investment will be used for power station construction and power transmission projects [7][9] 1.2 The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and the Domestic and Overseas Sales of Excavators Continue to Improve Synchronously - The 14th Five - Year Plan emphasizes original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be released, benefiting cyclical sectors [12] - In November 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 20,027 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.90%. Domestic sales increased by 9.11% year - on - year, and exports increased by 18.84% year - on - year, indicating the recovery of the industry [13] 1.3 The Global Construction Machinery Market is Vast, and China's Export Data Shows High Growth - The global construction machinery market is expected to grow from $213.5 billion in 2024 to $296.1 billion in 2030. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030 [17] - The global excavator market is expected to reach $92.8 billion in 2030. In China, excavators will lead the industry recovery with a growth rate of 16.8% [17] - Overseas markets account for nearly 90% of the global construction machinery market. China's construction machinery export volume has increased from $18.894 billion in 2020 to $52.829 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.33% [22] 1.4 The Construction Machinery Cycle Reaches the Bottom and Rebounds, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion - The excavator industry has experienced two cycles and is now in a new upward cycle. In 2024, the annual sales volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and from January to November 2025, the growth rate expanded to 16.7% [24] - The overseas revenue of the four major domestic construction machinery manufacturers has increased significantly. In 2024, the overseas revenue ratios of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion exceeded 50% [27] - International giants still dominate the global market. Chinese construction machinery manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Zoomlion still have room for improvement in global market share [29] 2. The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index: One - Click Allocation of Core Construction Machinery Assets 2.1 Index Compilation: Selecting Core Leaders in the Construction Machinery Industry - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index was released on September 27, 2021, with a base date of June 30, 2016. It selects 50 representative listed companies in the construction machinery field as samples to reflect the overall performance of construction machinery - related stocks [34] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [36] 2.2 Industry Market Value Characteristics: High Concentration in the Construction Machinery Sector, with Market Value Structure Dominated by Leading Companies - As of January 6, 2026, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of RMB 28.131 billion. Five stocks have a market value of over RMB 100 billion [37] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 72.55% of the total weight. The top three stocks by weight are XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Weichai Power [43] - The index focuses on the construction machinery, auto parts, and special equipment sectors, with a combined proportion of over 87%. The construction machinery industry has the highest weight, at 61.99% [46] 2.3 High Elasticity, Offensive Nature, and Long - Term Allocation Value - In the rising market, the CSI Construction Machinery Index has strong explosive power. For example, from January 31 to April 19, 2019, its cumulative return was 44.07%, significantly higher than that of broad - based indices [50] - Since the base date, the cumulative return of the index has reached 153.95%, and the annualized return is 10.60%, far exceeding that of major broad - based indices. It has high volatility and a large maximum drawdown, indicating its high - elasticity offensive characteristics [56] - The index shows a pattern of leading in the up - cycle and adjusting in the down - cycle. In 2019 and 2025, its annual returns were significantly higher than those of broad - based indices [62] 2.4 High - Level Operation Supported by Positive Expectations, Highlighting the Attention of Sector Allocation - As of January 5, 2026, the P/E ratio of the CSI Construction Machinery Index was 24.13, with a historical quantile of 79.59%, and the P/B ratio was 2.26, with a historical quantile of 94.49%. The valuation is at a relatively high level [65] - The market's positive expectations for the industry have been reflected in the valuation, highlighting the long - term certainty of sector allocation [65] 3. Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF (fund code: 515970) closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It started raising funds on January 19, 2026, and ended on January 30, 2026, with Wang Xinwei as the fund manager [68]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hengli Hydraulic's stock price increased by 5.02% to 120.65 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.321 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.85%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 161.77 billion CNY [1] - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, and listed on October 28, 2011, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders [1] - The revenue composition of Hengli Hydraulic includes hydraulic cylinders (50.70%), hydraulic pumps, valves, and motors (38.16%), parts and castings (7.28%), hydraulic systems (3.16%), and others (0.69%) [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hengli Hydraulic, Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 412,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 9.1186 million shares, which is 0.68% of the circulating shares [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF has a current scale of 425.581 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 1.99% and a one-year return of 26.52% [2] - The fund manager of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, Liu Jun, has a total asset scale of 542.504 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 189.56% and the worst being -45.64% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hengli Hydraulic has shown positive stock performance and financial growth, with significant increases in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. - As of January 21, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price increased by 2.00% to 117.18 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 157.12 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a stock price increase of 6.61% year-to-date, with notable gains of 25.11% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Hydraulic achieved operating revenue of 7.79 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 billion CNY, up 16.49% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.18 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.11 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.76% to 36,900, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 18.70% to 36,379 shares [2].