Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit down, and Northern Rare Earth dropping over 5% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have also shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or phase highs [2] - The super cycle of non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]

中国铝业（601600）(601600.SH、02600.HK)拟收购海外铝资源。 1月30日，中国铝业发布公告称，拟与国际矿业巨头力拓斥资62.86亿元，联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股 权。其中，中国铝业拟出资42.11亿元。 2025年以来，下游需求旺盛，中国铝业业绩延续增长，前三季度盈利108.72亿元。与此同时，公司股价 大幅上涨。K线图显示，中国铝业的A股股价2025年1月底报7.5元/股，2026年1月底最高触及15.85元/ 股，一年涨幅达111%。 资产规模增长的同时资产质量进一步优化。截至2025年三季度末，中国铝业总资产达2304亿元，资产负 债率为46.38%，创出十年新低。 此外，该公司还控股或参股21座水电站和4个风电站，年权益发电量约70亿度，全部为可再生能源，吨 铝碳排放处于全球领先水平。财务数据显示，2024年巴西铝业实现营业收入81.74亿雷亚尔；2025年前9 月营业收入65.95亿雷亚尔，净利润3.93亿雷亚尔。 中国铝业表示，本次交易契合公司优化全球产业布局的发展方向，将结合公司在铝行业的技术、管理及 全产业链运营优势与力拓的可持续发展、国际化经营经验，在巴西打造新的 ...

Group 1 - The top ten stocks with net financing purchases on January 30 include: Lanke Technology (342 million), China Aluminum (336 million), Shijia Photon (210 million), Zhaoyi Innovation (207 million), Dongcai Technology (167 million), Jianghuai Automobile (165 million), Longi Green Energy (109 million), Sikan Technology (94.385 million), Hongda Shares (88.6549 million), and Fuling Power (87.6586 million) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Key Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for February 2026, highlighting investment opportunities based on specific market conditions and company performance [1][2]. Financial and Valuation Summary - **Banking Sector**: - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is recommended due to its clear performance bottom, attractive valuation, and potential for retail credit recovery [1][3]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is favored for its ongoing transformation and improved product structure, alongside easing real estate risks [1][3]. - **Food and Beverage**: - Weilong Delicious Food (9985.HK) is noted for its innovative product development and solid channel foundation, expected to maintain or slightly increase profit margins [1][3]. - **Home Appliances**: - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) is highlighted for its strategic positioning in high-end markets and operational efficiency improvements, benefiting from domestic policies and overseas demand [1][3]. - **Power Equipment**: - Keli (002782.SZ) is recognized for its strong market position in magnetic components and ongoing overseas expansion, with a focus on solid-state transformer applications [1][3]. - **Basic Chemicals**: - China Petroleum (601857.SH) is expected to benefit from declining natural gas import costs and increasing domestic market share [1][3]. - **Metals and Materials**: - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is positioned for growth due to its acquisition of Brazilian aluminum assets and high profitability from rising aluminum prices [1][3]. - **Electronics**: - Lante Optics (688127.SH) anticipates significant profit growth driven by expanding demand in various tech sectors, including AR glasses [1][3]. - **Internet**: - Alibaba (9988.HK) is projected to see substantial cloud revenue growth, supported by its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy [1][3]. - **Machinery**: - Boying Welding (301468.SZ) is expected to capture market share in HRSG and oil and gas composite pipes, benefiting from North American demand [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation, through its subsidiary China Aluminum Hong Kong Co., Ltd., plans to acquire a 68.596% stake in Brazil Aluminum Company by establishing a joint venture with Rio Tinto International Holdings in Brazil, enhancing its green development and international operational capabilities [1]. Group 1 - China Aluminum Corporation's subsidiary, China Aluminum Co., Ltd., intends to acquire equity in Brazil Aluminum Company [1]. - The acquisition will be executed through a joint venture with Rio Tinto International Holdings [1]. - Brazil Aluminum Company operates a full industry chain covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, recycled aluminum, and power supply [1]. Group 2 - In 2024, Brazil Aluminum Company is projected to produce 720,000 tons of alumina and 364,500 tons of low-carbon aluminum liquid [1]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance China Aluminum's capabilities in green development and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The rare drop in the non-ferrous metal sector on January 30, with a significant decline in the popular ETF, reflects market reactions to external and internal factors, while simultaneously showing a trend of increased investment despite falling prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 30, the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a notable drop, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876), falling to a low of 9.98% before closing down 9.61% [1][3]. - Despite the decline, the ETF saw a net subscription of 156 million units, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [1][3]. - Among the 59 constituent stocks, 20 stocks, including Shandong Gold and China Aluminum, hit the daily limit down, while Hunan Gold achieved a five-day consecutive rise with a net inflow of 6.893 billion yuan, topping the A-share capital inflow list [1][3]. Group 2: Reasons for Market Drop - External factors include the anticipated appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, which is expected to end the liquidity boom, prompting profit-taking before the announcement [3][11]. - Internal factors involve regulatory tightening, with exchanges raising margin requirements and price limits for gold, silver, and tin, forcing high-leverage speculative funds to liquidate positions before the holiday [3][11]. - On the industrial side, pre-holiday inventory replenishment fell short, and there was a surge in shipments from lithium mines in Australia and South America, leading to a price drop for lithium carbonate [3][11]. Group 3: Reasons for Increased Investment - External factors supporting increased investment include Trump's endorsement of Kevin Warsh, suggesting a lower probability of aggressive rate hikes under his leadership [4][13]. - The fundamental drivers for non-ferrous metal prices remain unchanged, with ongoing global monetary easing and the strategic value of metals needed for emerging industries like AI and military applications [4][13]. - Earnings forecasts for non-ferrous metal stocks are generally positive, with many companies expected to report favorable results for 2025 [4][13]. - Guosheng Securities predicts that the combination of supply-demand mismatch, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades will sustain high profitability in the non-ferrous sector for the next 3-5 years [4][13].

Market Overview - On January 30, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, Shenzhen Component down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 2,400 stocks in the green [3] Sector Performance - There was a significant sector divergence, with major funds withdrawing from previously popular cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and shifting towards technology growth sectors such as communications and electronics [3][5] - The top five sectors for net capital inflow included communications and electronics, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in net inflow, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a net outflow of 298 billion yuan [5] Stock Highlights - Notable stocks with significant capital inflow included Hunan Gold, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang, all showing gains of over 5% [6] - Conversely, leading stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum, faced substantial outflows, with Zijin Mining experiencing a net outflow of 28 billion yuan and a drop of 7.62% [6] Market Sentiment - The market displayed a clear trend towards technology, with hardware, food and beverage, and construction sectors seeing concentrated gains, indicating a shift in investment focus towards manufacturing upgrades and consumption recovery [7] - The precious metals sector experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind Precious Metals Index dropping 8.27% and many stocks hitting the daily limit down, influenced by international price fluctuations and macroeconomic factors [10] Economic Influences - The market reacted to news regarding potential changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership, with Kevin Warsh being viewed as a hawkish candidate, leading to concerns over tightening liquidity [11] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.43% to around 96.74, impacting the attractiveness of precious metals, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a recent high of 4.266% [11] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility in gold prices is expected, the long-term outlook remains bullish, with potential for gold prices to rise to 6,000 USD per ounce, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and structural market changes [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for aluminum is entering a new cycle supported by emerging economies, with a projected CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, while supply constraints in Europe and the U.S. due to energy shortages are expected to limit recovery, leading to a systematic decline in global supply growth with a CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The demand side is benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with traditional demand expected to be boosted, and new drivers such as energy storage and data centers emerging as new engines for aluminum demand [1] Group 2 - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion into regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies that are first to expand overseas will build a first-mover advantage by securing resources and energy-rich areas [2] Group 3 - The continuous expansion of the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum, combined with global fiscal and monetary policy support, is expected to drive aluminum prices to new highs, with low-cost maintenance leading to increased profit margins per ton of aluminum [3] - Current average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is around 10 times, indicating significant upward revaluation potential during price increases, suggesting a favorable environment for the sector [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on three selection criteria: companies with high capacity and market value that show significant performance elasticity with rising aluminum prices; companies with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential; and prioritizing companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina, especially if alumina prices are at a low point [4] - Recommended stocks include China Hongqiao (01378), Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH, 02600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH, 02610), and Huatong Cable (605196.SH) [4]